Doug Casey's Take

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 The hosts discuss Trump saying an Iran MOU is "over" after reported attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, a major U.S. strike, and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while noting uncertainty about attribution. They argue markets appear complacent despite the potential for a severe real-economy shock from disrupted oil flows, SPR drawdowns, and possible wider chokepoint closures (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandab). The conversation covers Iran's internal backlash after Khamenei's death and the likelihood of escalation, plus spillover risks from Russia-Ukraine strikes on refining assets and Europe's militarization. Doug outlines positioning: long oil via spreads and producers, long grains and gold miners, and considering bearish semiconductor hedges, while warning of bubble valuations and broader systemic financial risks.
00:00 Iran Deal Collapses
01:58 Calm Before Oil Shock
05:06 Oil and Grain Trades
10:02 Hormuz War Scenarios
12:32 Iranian Public Backlash
16:21 Israel and Turkey Risks
19:56 Financial Domino Effects
22:13 Europe Russia Escalation
25:17 Trump Megalomania Talk
29:21 How to Hedge Now
30:36 Bubble Shorts Semis SpaceX
35:18 Market Vibe and Indicators
40:13 World War III Fears
42:05 Wrap Up and Next Episode

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1976 vs Today: Patriotism, Demographics, Tech, and Subscriber Q&A on Capital Controls, Uranium, Cuba, and Milei
On the July 3 observed July 4 holiday, Matt and Doug compare America's 1976 Bicentennial mood with today, citing major shifts in demographics, a larger population, widening class divides, the decline of manufacturing, and especially computerization and heavy screen time, alongside reduced patriotism and optimism and more political polarization. They discuss changing race relations and immigration, then pivot to subscriber Q&A about Crisis Investing after Lau Veges' departure, risks of foreign bank accounts amid potential capital controls, gold-backed "goldbacks," whether a US government could compel the Sprott Uranium Trust to sell uranium, possible investment opportunities in a collapsing Cuba, views on the death penalty and abortion, where "renaissance men" are most common, why countries splitting can be beneficial, concerns about Javier Milei's pro-Israel actions and immigration stance, and why they won't track panelists' personal trades from their experts roundtables.
00:00 1976 vs Today
02:06 Population and Lifestyle Shifts
04:09 Middle Class Squeeze
05:50 Computers Change Everything
07:20 Immigration and Identity
11:11 Patriotism and Politics
14:13 Subscriber Q and A Begins
17:52 Foreign Accounts and Controls
20:52 Goldbacks and Gold Money
24:29 Uranium Trust and State Power
29:55 Cuba Collapse and Opportunities
33:02 Cuba Property Outlook
34:19 Death Penalty Rethink
36:21 Abortion Family Choice
40:21 Renaissance Men Today
44:30 When Countries Split
47:15 Milei Zionism Concerns
57:46 Roundtable Stock Followups
01:01:49 Holiday Signoff

Doug Casey on oil's new floor, the $1.4 billion grift, and why the next president will make Trump look like a moderate
Doug made a call on this week's episode that stopped me mid-conversation: he's betting Trump resigns before 2028.
Not impeachment. Not the 25th Amendment. Resignation — dressed up, in Doug's telling, with "some nonsensical reason why. Well, time for Vance to get groomed or whatever." And he didn't stop there: "I'd also make book that Melania is going to divorce him." His suspicion? The Melania coin was part of the alimony settlement.
You can dismiss that as Doug being Doug. But listen to the whole episode and the logic hangs together. Here's the chain.
The money trail
Trump's latest financial disclosure shows $1.4 billion in crypto earnings while in office. The Trump meme coin alone brought in $635 million. (Melania's coin managed about $6 million — which tells you something about the settlement theory.)
Doug's read: "Those coins serve absolutely zero useful purpose. It's like giving somebody a book contract or a speaking fee to pass money to them. It's basically a grift."
And that money has a job to do. "He'll need that money to mount a proper legal defense after he's out of office." A president facing legal exposure the moment he leaves power, sitting on a billion-plus war chest, in years Doug expects to get "so wild and wooly" that walking away becomes the smart trade — that's the resignation bet.
Mussolini economics
Doug's larger frame is that the grift isn't a side show — it's the system now. "He really is a modern-day reincarnation of Mussolini. His economic policies are actually identical to those of Benito Mussolini" — the US government buying stakes in companies on the open market, ten of them at this point, with the family positioned ahead of the deals.
Take the Kazakhstan tungsten arrangement: Trump's sons get in, then the US government invests heavily. Millions of Americans look at that and call it capitalism. Doug's correction: "It's actually fascism at work, in the classic Mussolini definition of the word." And every time Trump is associated with free markets, he delegitimizes them a little more.
What comes next is worse
Mamdani won in New York and is now using his star power to elevate three more like-minded candidates into Congress. Doug isn't mincing words: "They're actual real communists that wanna overturn the entire nature of US life."
Left and right, Americans are being radicalized against the system itself. Sanders, Obama, "drain the swamp," Mamdani — every one of those was a vote to tear something down. And the anger is monetary at its root, even if almost nobody can name it.
M2 money supply surged $247 billion in May — the largest monthly jump since May 2021, when Washington was mailing checks to everyone with a pulse. We now sit $1.3 trillion above the peak of that printing orgy. That's what's laying waste to the average American's standard of living. They can't make ends meet, they can't explain why, and so they reach for "billionaires shouldn't exist."
Doug's punchline on where the numbers go from here: "Trump is gonna have to ask what comes beyond a trillion. He doesn't know it, but it's a quadrillion. So that number is the next one we're gonna start hearing about."
"It's all like a gambler on tilt at this point."
The one trade hiding in all of this
Amid the doom, Doug laid out the most concrete investment case he's made in months.
The Hormuz standoff isn't getting resolved. Even under the best scenario, flows through the Strait will be controlled by Iran and its allies — restricted flows are the new baseline. Doug's conclusion: "Oil has reached a new base level at, let's say, $65 to $70 at a minimum."
Now the anomaly: "During the last real oil bubble, which was in 1980, oil stocks were 20% of the S&P 500. Now they're 4%" — even though oil matters more to the world economy than ever. Some of these companies are yielding up to 10% in current dividends.
"They're cheap, they're paying big dividends, nobody wants them, and it's one of the only parts of the financial world that's actually underpriced."
Everyone's chasing semiconductors and AI. The energy that powers all of it trades like an afterthought. That's the setup Doug lives for.
Also in this episode
Trump's feud with Meloni at the G7 (and what the Italian press called him afterward), the $16 million Reflecting Pool fixation, the CPS visit to the Buttigieg household and why child protective agencies should terrify every parent in America, and whether there will even be an election in 2028. Doug: "Who knows what could happen between now and then where we could have a national emergency and the election is put off — and that's really the end of the Republic of America."
On Friday: Doug's take on the recent Supreme Court rulings, his thoughts on Peter Thiel's Zero to One, and your questions. Subscribers can submit via the "Ask Doug a Question" link at the top of the Substack.
One more thing
John Hunt — Doug's co-author and, as Doug put it this week, "an actual renaissance man... not just an MD, he was trained in geology, and he can do everything" — has taken over the monthly Crisis Investing issues. His first one is out now, and it includes a genuinely interesting gold recommendation.
Doug's assessment: "Crisis Investing is a better newsletter than ever, and it's going to improve a lot from here."
If you want John's full write-up on the gold pick, upgrade at crisisinvesting.com.

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Matt and Doug discuss the proliferation of U.S. holidays, including Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Day, before turning to the opening of Obama's presidential library and Trump's competing, highly theatrical library renderings, comparing modern presidential libraries to pyramids and noting Biden's reported difficulty raising funds. They debate Trump's showmanship around his birthday and a ceasefire/peace deal they expect won't hold, citing Iran's improved position, unresolved issues, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and risks to oil prices. They then address Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow and concerns about an escalating, lingering war. Doug shares his positioning in gold miners, energy, uranium, and a corn ETF, answers subscriber questions on filmmaking/royalties, the FIFA World Cup and U.S. border hassles, trade blocs like Mercosur/EU, recommended books, and impressions of Malaysia and Penang.
00:00 Holiday Overload Debate
01:06 Which Holidays Matter
02:24 Equinoxes and Global Days Off
03:25 Juneteenth and Identity Politics
05:08 Obama Library Obamalisk
06:55 Trump Library Renderings
09:38 Pyramids and Presidential Tombs
11:31 Biden Library Money Trouble
14:25 Trump Birthday Peace Deal
15:13 Hormuz Oil and Ceasefire Doubts
18:02 Ukraine Drone War Escalation
20:02 War Escalation Risks
21:01 Ceasefire Won't Hold
22:13 Crisis Investing Plays
23:34 Corn ETF Thesis
25:47 Film Investing Reality
29:55 FIFA World Cup Fallout
34:23 Trade Blocs Skepticism
36:19 Five Books To Read
38:56 Malaysia And Penang
41:35 Weekend Signoff

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Matt and Doug discuss a reported US–Iran peace deal whose MOU hasn't been released, doubting it will last due to Israel–Iran hostility and Israeli opposition, while arguing the US bombing of Iran was unnecessary and that the deal looks like a US surrender with potential reparations (estimated $300B) and possible UAE/private funding plus future service fees after 60 days. They then focus on provisions in the NDAA (Section 219) and an Intelligence Authorization Act measure (Sen. Tom Cotton) that would fuse US–Israel military and intelligence programs, outlining six harms: inability to stop unwanted wars, technology leakage (AI/quantum) possibly to China, US contractors losing business, Gaza-tested AI targeting tools entering US systems, Israeli espionage risks, and irreversible entanglement by FY2027. The conversation also covers Trump's credibility, government involvement in AI companies and energy-hungry data centers, China's open-source AI stance, IMF conditional lending in Papua New Guinea, rising authoritarian security policies in Peru, and broader fears of global conflict.
00:00 Iran US Peace Deal
01:08 Why Bomb Iran
02:31 Israel Leverage Theories
04:21 China Oil Shock Absorber
06:58 Trump Character Spin
10:02 Reparations And Tolls
11:18 Israel Lebanon Sticking Point
12:21 Israel As 51st State
14:59 Six Ways It Hurts
21:36 USS Liberty And AIPAC
24:32 AI Data Centers Bubble
28:24 AI As Strategic Weapon
33:42 World War Three Thesis
36:31 IMF In Papua New Guinea
39:48 Peru Fujimori Crackdown
43:47 Authoritarian Trend Fears
45:44 Hopeful Wrap And Outlook