Doug Casey's Take

Doug Casey and Matt Smith on the gap between the flash and the bang. The war in the Middle East started February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz is choked, and Saudi Arabia and Yemen are now at war, yet most Americans still ask "What war?" Spot oil in the North Sea is $136 while the futures market says somewhere in the $90s. Why are markets disconnected from reality, and how long before the bang? Plus Saudi Arabia and MBS, Egypt, Israel fatigue, Indonesia's gas lines, AI and the new rust belt, the Fort Hood execution, and why Doug says "the shit will really have hit the fan" anytime between tomorrow and a couple of years from now.
Find us at https://crisisinvesting.comAsk Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug")
See Doug at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
00:00 Welcome And New Orleans
02:02 Worse Than The Worst Case
05:11 $136 Oil On The Ground
06:52 Markets You Can't Trust
10:36 Refineries And Fuel Shortages
13:03 Saudi Arabia Is Next
17:36 Egypt's Ticking Time Bomb
20:50 Israel Fatigue
26:04 Indonesia's Gas Lines
31:07 We Saw The Flash. Where's The Bang?
33:33 Rates, Bonds, And A Bifurcated America
36:09 AI And The New Rust Belt
39:37 Billionaires And Their Bodyguards
41:57 Kunstler And Agreeing To Disagree
44:37 Tankers In The Strait
47:36 Books: Vikings And The Mandibles
51:06 Overproduction Of Elites
52:33 Trump's $5,000 Video
54:09 The Fort Hood Execution
1:05:59 Press Secretary And Guilfoyle
1:09:23 Monica's Podcast
1:13:21 Wrap Up

Novelist and essayist James Howard Kunstler (The Long Emergency, the World Made by Hand series) joins Doug Casey and Matt Smith. Kunstler expects prosecutions after the midterms, starting with John Brennan's grand jury appearance. He also says the US military won't let radicals take the levers of power, and that the country has slid from high trust to no trust. Doug and Kunstler clash over the Iran war. Also: Europe tottering, why US shale is more fragile than it looks, what Kunstler got wrong in The Long Emergency, Israel and Gaza, Ukraine and NATO, and the deep state.
Kunstler's Substack: https://www.kunstler.com
Find us at https://crisisinvesting.com
New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
00:00 Welcome James Howard Kunstler
01:08 Will Anyone Face Justice?
07:11 Brennan Before A Grand Jury
13:39 Bondi, Bongino, And Silence
18:42 Will The Military Step In?
22:35 Two Flavors Of Authoritarianism
26:14 Civil War And A Trump Bet
28:54 Europe Is Tottering
31:10 Iran, Oil, And Shale
37:31 Doug Pushes Back On Iran
41:43 Islam And Europe's Future
45:39 Invasion, Hochul, And New York
49:55 Where Are The Men Of Quality?
51:41 Trump The Paradox
55:44 Markets, Bonds, And The Carry Trade
1:01:11 Kunstler On Gold
1:02:58 The Long Emergency, 20 Years On
1:05:15 From High Trust To No Trust
1:07:59 Half The Country Is Insane
1:12:13 A Steak Of Justice
1:15:13 Is Trump An Authoritarian?
1:18:37 Israel, Gaza, And Tucker
1:24:39 The Iran Blockade
1:26:08 Ukraine And Leaving NATO
1:28:11 Brennan And The Deep State
1:31:54 Wrap Up

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After a brief hiatus, Doug and Matt discuss Trump's escalating rhetoric about Iran potentially nuking U.S. cities and argue the U.S. bears historical responsibility for the conflict, citing oil interests, the CIA-backed coup against Mossadegh, the Shah, and the 1979–1980 embassy crisis. Doug says Trump's actions have worsened the situation, advocates a public apology and possible indemnity to de-escalate, and predicts Trump will not complete his term due to impeachment, the 25th Amendment, assassination, or broader instability. They debate nuclear delivery realities, warn that antagonizing adversaries invites catastrophe, and frame current conflicts—Middle East shipping chokepoints, Houthi-Saudi fighting, and Russia-Ukraine maritime attacks—as kindling for World War III. They also cover French unrest, demographic and religious shifts, bond-market stress, a potential tech-bubble burst, and conclude by favoring energy and mining stocks.
00:00 Back From Hiatus
00:28 Trump Iran Nukes Talk
03:07 Why Iran Hates US
05:45 Apology Not Escalation
07:55 Trump Term Prediction
09:43 Nuclear Delivery Reality
14:33 World War Three Path
15:12 Saudi Yemen Flashpoint
20:15 Chokepoints And Shipping
26:05 Empire Bases Vulnerable
27:52 Elections And Dissidents
30:36 Islam And Instability
31:52 France Protests Breakdown
36:46 Bond Market To Collapse
39:43 Fourth Turning Theory
41:22 Worst President Forecast
43:05 Wrap Up And Investing

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com
 Doug and Matt discuss escalating Yemen-Houthi conflict impacts, including disruption of Saudi oil infrastructure and potential wider geopolitical fallout as oil supplies to Europe tighten and fuel prices rise. They pivot to U.S. policy and market fragility, criticizing short-term political decision-making (including possible diesel export bans), warning about deficits, rising rates, and a looming financial crisis, while outlining a defensive investment stance favoring gold, agriculture, and energy. They debate AI fear narratives as regulatory capture, question returns on massive AI capital spending, and consider state intervention if major firms fail, noting cheaper Chinese models undercut U.S. frontier labs. Viewer Q&A covers taking state money as a moral dilemma, risk management without stop-losses in illiquid resource stocks, prospects for conflict in Latin America vs. Africa/Middle East, evaluating moral character, Botswana's diamond dependence, legal system critiques, offshore vs. onshore precious-metals storage, private deal drawbacks, and future drone warfare shifting to swarms and eventually nanotechnology.
00:00 News and Viewer Qs
00:08 Houthis and Saudi Setback
06:03 Oil Shock and Markets
08:22 Diesel Export Ban Fallout
10:02 Trade Threats and Politics
13:25 Rates Debt and Bear Case
15:15 AI Fear and Regulation
18:35 China Models and Bubble Risk
21:29 Taking Money from State
24:52 Managing Trades Without Stops
27:25 Wars Latin America Outlook
28:14 Testing Character in Relationships
34:19 Botswana and Diamond Risk
35:59 Legal System as Slavery
37:02 Battle Bank vs Offshore Vaults
38:19 Private Deals Pros and Cons
40:04 Drones Swarms and Nanobots
44:11 Wrap Up and Italy Trip

Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com
 Doug speaking at New Orleans Investment Conference: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
Doug and Matt reflect on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, arguing the official narrative remains unconvincing, citing unresolved issues like Building 7 and the lack of thorough investigation, and linking this to widespread public distrust in government. They discuss escalating Middle East conflict, including Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, threats to shipping near Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and U.S. strikes on Iranian-linked tankers, while noting oil prices and market fragility amid potential rate hikes; Doug discloses he has shorted Nasdaq. They compare alleged state cover-ups to the Charlie Kirk assassination and other disputed events, then address viewer questions on AI-driven job losses, potential debt defaults, protecting oneself via assets and residency abroad, central bank gold moves (including Argentina shipping gold to London), meetups and conferences, precious-metal storage jurisdictions, and Doug's negative view of Nike as an investment.
00:00 9/11 Anniversary Reflections
02:08 Doubting the Official Story
03:35 Building 7 and Media Oddities
07:45 Middle East Escalation and Oil
12:43 Charlie Kirk Conspiracy Questions
15:34 Trust Collapse and State Power
18:20 Trump 5K Proposal Fallout
23:08 Renaming Hormuz and Narcissism
25:27 AI Job Losses Market Impact
27:27 UBI via Tax Credits
28:57 Bribing Voters Warning
30:19 Default Fallout Prep
31:36 Hard vs Soft Default
33:28 Escape Political Risk
34:05 Central Banks Move Gold
35:53 DC Meetups and Events
39:13 Uruguay Free Zone Idea
40:06 Argentina Gold to London
44:25 Where to Store Metals
46:42 Nike Stock and Woke Brands
50:21 Weekend Sign Off