One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps. Every market selloff is. However, a common thread in all crises is that the best decisions begin with a structured approach to analysis.
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11:41
Fiscal Fudge
I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me with sugar, vanilla and helpful advice. However, we possessed no candy thermometer and, as anyone in the fudge-making business will tell you, getting the temperature right is essential. Too hot and you end up with toffee or hard caramel. Too cold and you end up with a grim sludge, which no degree of refrigeration can render palatable. Making fudge is a delicate operation.
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7:35
The Wait and See Economy
I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. When a car or truck bears down on them, they stop and stare. Perhaps they are pondering whether it would be more fun to hop into the woods to their right or gambol off into the field to their left. But, of course, the only important decision is to get out of the road. A “wait and see” attitude could be fatal.
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12:08
The Trouble with Tariffs
I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.
It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue this week, with the president promising to impose postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a new, second 10% tariff on China as of March 4th, it seems like a good time to review the problem.
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5:45
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth. However, the reality is that the gap between births and deaths is continuing to shrink, with almost all of our recent population growth coming from immigration. Going forward, if immigration is dramatically curtailed, overall population growth could turn negative by the middle of the next decade while the working-age population would immediately start to contract.
[1] See Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades, U.S. Census Press Release, December 19th, 2024.
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