Raoul Pal and GMI's head of macro research Julien Bittel, CFA, open their biweekly "Shooting the Shit" episode, which is normally exclusive to Real Vision Alpha members and above, to everyone. It's a sneak peek into how the guys brainstorm, interpret charts and look for opportunities through the macro lens. In this episode, they break down the forces driving markets right now, from global liquidity and crypto regulation to AI, compute, energy, stablecoins, and they explain why the old business cycle framework may be losing power as the exponential age accelerates.
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction: The Exponential Age & Universal Code Thesis
1:40 - Trump, AI & Crypto: The Political Acceleration
4:07 - The US-China Grand Bargain: Trade, Taiwan & Nvidia
6:16 - Are We Mid-Cycle? The Case for a Supercycle
9:09 - Inflation, Compute Demand & Anthropic's Explosive Growth
11:37 - Crypto & Equity Chart Rundown (BTC, ETH, Circle, Tesla, Solar)
21:51 - Dollar, Rates & Copper: What to Watch
24:35 - Global Liquidity vs. Bitcoin: The Dominant Framework
30:02 - Portfolio Performance & Why You Shouldn't Trade Crypto
34:05 - The Buildout Has Only Begun: AI, Robots & the CapEx Supercycle
37:26 - Compute & Energy: The New GDP Formula
39:14 - The Economic Singularity & Why Old Macro Frameworks Are Broken
44:44 - Closing: Adapt Your Framework or Get Left Behind
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