Outerblue

In a special edition of Outerblue Convictions, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to unpack Amundi's mid-year investment outlook, The Power of Endurance.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical shocks, shifting central bank priorities and the continued strength of AI-related trades, the discussion explores why global growth may remain resilient but uneven, with fragile de-escalation abroad and broadening AI adoption continuing to shape the macro and market landscape.

Monica outlines the outlook for central banks, arguing that inflation risk is now taking centre stage across key markets as we see a more cautious stance from the Fed while the ECB continues its internal debate on its next steps. The episode explores how monetary policy in the different regions may evolve and what this might mean for the fixed income yield curve. 

The discussion then turns to the fast-moving Forex market and our expectations for the different major currencies, highlighting the potential medium-term weakness of the US dollar, diversification away from USD-denominated assets and selective opportunities in sterling. Monica also addresses concentration risk in AI and the need to explore the whole AI value chain and industrial beneficiaries.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode on the investment outlook for 2026 offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators seeking to build more resilient portfolios. Tune in for expert perspectives on resilience, diversification, selectivity and the themes likely to shape the rest of 2026. 

Topics covered: Investment outlook, central banks, interest rates, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, Federal Reserve, ECB, markets, investors, fixed income, United States, FX, diversification, gold, hedging, real assets

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Global markets are being shaped by a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop, with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to volatility across rates, credit and equities. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, about how the team is interpreting the latest moves in macro and bond market volatility, and what this means for portfolio allocation.

They discuss why bond yields have risen so sharply, how uncertainty around energy supply and inflation is feeding through to central bank expectations, and why the shape of the yield curve matters as much as the level of rates. Monica explains that steepening, meaning a wider gap between short- and long-dated maturities, has become a key signal as bond markets reassess policy, growth and fiscal risks. The conversation also covers the latest views on the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, and why the medium-term case for yield curve steepening remains intact even if the tactical picture is less clear.

The discussion then turns to equities, where resilience has held up surprisingly well but may face pressure from higher rates, valuation sensitivity and rising debt-service costs. Monica also assesses the UK market through the lens of credibility, fiscal discipline and term premium, drawing comparisons with Italy’s past experience in bond markets. Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers practical insight for investors navigating a more volatile and differentiated environment.

Topics covered: geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, bond yields, yield curve steepening, short maturities, long maturities, central bank policy, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, sovereign bonds, bond market volatility, equities, valuations, debt service costs, fiscal credibility, term premium, United Kingdom, Italy

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Long-term investing looks very different in a world defined by ruptures, from geopolitical fragmentation and strategic competition to artificial intelligence, demographic change and shifting currency dynamics. In this episode of Outerblue Talks Research, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, and John O’Toole, Global Head and CIO of Solutions, about Amundi’s latest Capital Markets Assumptions (CMA) report and what it means for investors over the years ahead.

They explore why the current environment is no longer just a series of temporary shocks, but a deeper structural change in the investment landscape. Monica explains how persistent inflation, strategic autonomy, energy security and industrial policy are reshaping the macro backdrop, while John highlights the growing importance of currencies, fiscal conditions and a more selective approach to portfolio construction.

The discussion continues with a closer look at how ruptures will impact expected returns across fixed income, equities, credit, gold and private assets. Bonds are regaining their role as a source of income and diversification, while equities still offer attractive long-term potential, albeit with more dispersion across regions. The conversation also examines why artificial intelligence is both a growth opportunity and a source of higher concentration risk, and why gold and private markets are becoming more strategic in long-term portfolios.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators seeking to navigate a new market environment defined by structural ruptures. Tune in for expert perspectives on resilience, diversification, selectivity and the themes likely to shape returns in the decade ahead.

Thank you for listening to the latest Outerblue Talks Research, read the full Capital Market Assumptions paper on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/capital-market-assumptions-2026

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Market Analysis and Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite a fast-moving news cycle, rising geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty around the outlook for growth and inflation. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, following the IMF spring meetings in Washington to discuss the structural shifts now shaping markets and what they mean for investors.

They examine the implications of a more fragile global backdrop, including the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices, inflation persistence and central bank policy. Monica shares why the ECB and the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, while the Bank of Japan remains an exception. They also explore what markets may be underestimating, from the risk of a new geopolitical regime, to the potential for a disorderly repricing of US assets.

The discussion continues with a look at fixed income, equities, gold and the US dollar, as well as the importance of selectivity, quality and diversification in portfolios. With markets still pricing in optimism despite stretched valuations and persistent uncertainty, Monica explains why investment views may need to extend beyond traditional assumptions and prepare for a more demanding investment environment.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators looking to understand the key macroeconomic, geopolitical and market themes shaping the second half of the year. Tune in for expert perspectives on asset allocation, central bank policy and the role of diversification in a changing world.

Thank you for listening to the latest Market Analysis and Investment Views, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/ 

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The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi's investment views.
 
They take a closer look at what the war means for inflation, both in the near and longer-term, and when a temporary supply shock might turn into a more permanent change to the economic regime. They also consider the potential reactions from central banks as policymakers try to manage this complex environment of higher inflation, due to energy prices, combined with weaker growth.
 
The edition continues with a focus on the US dollar, which has been faring relatively well in the current crisis. Do we expect this to be the end of the USD downward trajectory?
 
Finally, we wrap up with a review of how these developments are impacting our asset allocation and portfolio construction views and the importance of smarter, multi-layered diversification in building resilient portfolios.

Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. 

To learn more, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/ 

Topics covered: Energy crisis, conflict, Iran, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, central banks, Federal Reserve, markets, investors, interest rates, equities, United States, USD, diversification, gold, hedging,

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