Outerblue by Amundi - Market analysis, asset allocation views, investment convictions and expert financial research

After an eventful summer for the markets and policymakers, particularly in the bond markets, our podcast series regulars reunite to recap the major movements in the markets over the past few weeks. Listen further to discover what these market events mean for investors and our own investment views.

In this episode of Amundi Convictions, our host, Swaha Pattanaik, returns to the studio to speak with Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute. They focus first on the sharp rise in global bond yields and the policy interventions that rattled markets over the summer.

Starting with Japan’s shifting monetary regime and the implications of yen and JGB moves, the episode also looks at the U.S. Treasury’s market operations and the limits of fiscal intervention.

Monica details the reasons behind Amundi's out of consensus call on the Fed, and what we expect for the ECB's next move in interest rates. Finally, the conversation closes with Amundi's investment views; why have equities and credit stayed resilient despite higher rates, what is driving the case for curve steepening, and what signals should investors be watching closely?

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers investors practical insight into navigating market volatility and policy shifts and how to identify the signals driving markets.

Topics covered: US treasury, interest rates, Japan, bond yields, yield curve steepening, short maturities, long maturities, central bank policy, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, inflation, bond market volatility, bonds, equities, valuations, hyperscalers, AI

For more insights, visit the Amundi Research Center.

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Retirement investing is changing as individuals take on more responsibility for their long-term outcomes, especially in defined contribution pension plans and personal savings. In this episode of Outerblue Talks Research, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Dominic Byrne, Global Head of Retirement Solutions at Amundi, about how lifecycle investing is evolving to include glidepath strategies. They also discuss why the traditional approach to retirement portfolios is being remixed for a world of longer careers, more job changes, and greater demand for personalization.

They discuss how the glide path helps portfolios adapt over time by balancing human capital and financial capital, and why broader diversification matters when stock-bond correlations are less reliable. The conversation also explores the role of private assets such as private equity and infrastructure in long-horizon portfolios, the growing use of data and artificial intelligence in tailoring solutions, and the importance of regulation and operating models in shaping practical retirement design.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors, plan sponsors and asset allocators looking to understand how retirement solutions are adapting to changing labour markets, changing client needs and changing markets.

Thank you for listening to the latest Outerblue Talks Research, read the full paper on the lifecycle remix on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/lifecycle-remix-glidepaths-personalisation-and-private-assets

Keywords:

lifecycle investing, glide paths, human capital, financial capital, defined contribution pensions, portfolio diversification, private assets, private equity, infrastructure, personalization, artificial intelligence, regulation, auto-enrolment, retirement planning, wealth management, long-term investing, accumulation, retirement income, data, investment design

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In a special edition of Outerblue Convictions, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to unpack Amundi's mid-year investment outlook, The Power of Endurance.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical shocks, shifting central bank priorities and the continued strength of AI-related trades, the discussion explores why global growth may remain resilient but uneven, with fragile de-escalation abroad and broadening AI adoption continuing to shape the macro and market landscape.

Monica outlines the outlook for central banks, arguing that inflation risk is now taking centre stage across key markets as we see a more cautious stance from the Fed while the ECB continues its internal debate on its next steps. The episode explores how monetary policy in the different regions may evolve and what this might mean for the fixed income yield curve. 

The discussion then turns to the fast-moving Forex market and our expectations for the different major currencies, highlighting the potential medium-term weakness of the US dollar, diversification away from USD-denominated assets and selective opportunities in sterling. Monica also addresses concentration risk in AI and the need to explore the whole AI value chain and industrial beneficiaries.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode on the investment outlook for 2026 offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators seeking to build more resilient portfolios. Tune in for expert perspectives on resilience, diversification, selectivity and the themes likely to shape the rest of 2026. 

Topics covered: Investment outlook, central banks, interest rates, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, Federal Reserve, ECB, markets, investors, fixed income, United States, FX, diversification, gold, hedging, real assets

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Global markets are being shaped by a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop, with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to volatility across rates, credit and equities. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, about how the team is interpreting the latest moves in macro and bond market volatility, and what this means for portfolio allocation.

They discuss why bond yields have risen so sharply, how uncertainty around energy supply and inflation is feeding through to central bank expectations, and why the shape of the yield curve matters as much as the level of rates. Monica explains that steepening, meaning a wider gap between short- and long-dated maturities, has become a key signal as bond markets reassess policy, growth and fiscal risks. The conversation also covers the latest views on the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, and why the medium-term case for yield curve steepening remains intact even if the tactical picture is less clear.

The discussion then turns to equities, where resilience has held up surprisingly well but may face pressure from higher rates, valuation sensitivity and rising debt-service costs. Monica also assesses the UK market through the lens of credibility, fiscal discipline and term premium, drawing comparisons with Italy’s past experience in bond markets. Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers practical insight for investors navigating a more volatile and differentiated environment.

Topics covered: geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, bond yields, yield curve steepening, short maturities, long maturities, central bank policy, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, sovereign bonds, bond market volatility, equities, valuations, debt service costs, fiscal credibility, term premium, United Kingdom, Italy

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Long-term investing looks very different in a world defined by ruptures, from geopolitical fragmentation and strategic competition to artificial intelligence, demographic change and shifting currency dynamics. In this episode of Outerblue Talks Research, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, and John O’Toole, Global Head and CIO of Solutions, about Amundi’s latest Capital Markets Assumptions (CMA) report and what it means for investors over the years ahead.

They explore why the current environment is no longer just a series of temporary shocks, but a deeper structural change in the investment landscape. Monica explains how persistent inflation, strategic autonomy, energy security and industrial policy are reshaping the macro backdrop, while John highlights the growing importance of currencies, fiscal conditions and a more selective approach to portfolio construction.

The discussion continues with a closer look at how ruptures will impact expected returns across fixed income, equities, credit, gold and private assets. Bonds are regaining their role as a source of income and diversification, while equities still offer attractive long-term potential, albeit with more dispersion across regions. The conversation also examines why artificial intelligence is both a growth opportunity and a source of higher concentration risk, and why gold and private markets are becoming more strategic in long-term portfolios.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators seeking to navigate a new market environment defined by structural ruptures. Tune in for expert perspectives on resilience, diversification, selectivity and the themes likely to shape returns in the decade ahead.

Thank you for listening to the latest Outerblue Talks Research, read the full Capital Market Assumptions paper on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/capital-market-assumptions-2026

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