Retail Media Breakfast Club

A few months ago, it felt like everyone in retail media was bracing for impact. Agentic commerce, zero-click search, and Gen AI were being treated as existential threats. But lately, I’ve noticed a shift. In this episode, I unpack what I’m hearing behind closed doors and on the ground at Shoptalk. The panic is cooling, and smarter, more strategic conversations are taking its place.
I dive into what this transition actually means for retailers right now. Are they behind? Are they ignoring the disruption? Or are they playing a longer, more deliberate game? From Costco’s methodical approach, to Target’s massive AI overhaul, I explore why the real challenge isn’t reacting quickly: it’s building the infrastructure to respond at all. If you want to understand where retail media is truly headed in an AI-driven world, this episode is for you.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline
[00:00] – The 2025 survey that revealed retail media’s biggest fears around Gen AI and zero-click search 
[00:45] – Why the mood is shifting from panic to practical strategy among retail leaders
[01:30] – Costco’s “order of operations” mindset and why patience may be a competitive advantage 
[03:00] – Why modular tech stacks and data layers are becoming critical for future AI integration 
[04:45] – Target’s bold move: rewriting 60% of its app to become AI-ready 
[07:00] – The shift toward focusing on onsite experience instead of chasing external AI trends

Links & Resources
EMARKETER/Bain survey from 2025: Retail Media, Unfiltered: What RMNs Told Us About Scaling, Struggling, and Succeeding
Replay of my livestream with Mark Williamson (Costco) and Jon Flugstad (MetaRouter): Costco Retail Media & The Commerce Media Tech Stack 2.0
Read my related articles:The 3 Ways Agentic Commerce Could Destroy Retail Media
Dark Search, Broken Signals, and What Comes Next for Retail Media
The Secret Hopes & Dreams of RMN Leaders
While We Debate What's 'Really' Agentic, Retail Media's Foundation Is Already Shifting

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Today I’m revisiting my recent article for The Drum and digging into a piece of research that stopped me in my tracks. And honestly, it might change how you think about retail media measurement altogether. I walk through new findings showing that something as simple as methodological choices can dramatically swing incremental ROAS (iROAS), sometimes even flipping campaign results from positive to negative. If you’ve ever trusted a single performance number at face value, this conversation is going to challenge that assumption.
I also explore what’s really going on beneath the surface of iROAS, why transparency might matter more than standardization, and what both brands and retailers need to start doing differently. Plus, I share a perspective shift inspired by Brené Brown that reframes how we approach metrics, uncertainty, and decision-making in retail media. This one’s all about asking better questions: and getting closer to the truth behind the numbers.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline
[00:12] – Why methodological choices can drastically impact iROAS results 
[01:17] – The shocking finding: same campaign, wildly different iROAS outcomes 
[02:23] – What “iROAS Demystified” reveals about hidden variability in measurement 
[03:00] – The four key variables that influence how iROAS is calculated 
[04:00] – Why better match quality can actually lead to lower iROAS estimates 
[05:15] – Should iROAS still be a headline KPI? Industry perspectives 
[08:19] – How mid-market brands can ask smarter questions about their reports

Links & Resources
My original article on The Drum: 83% of retail media campaigns can be gamed on iROAS. Here’s how
White paper from Albertsons, Ovative Group, and Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management: iROAS Demystified: Understanding Your Brands Incremental ROAS
Follow Liz Roche, VP @ Albertsons, on LinkedIn
Follow Derek Nelson, Senior Director of Retail Media Consulting @ Ovative Group, on LinkedIn
Read my related articles:Why ROAS Refuses To Die
Brands demand retail media standards. Retailers say it's too hard. Do they kind of have a point?
Brian Monahan's 'Bloody Obvious' Bets Are Shaking Up Albertsons Media Collective

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Recently an essay stopped me in my tracks. My friend Drew Cashmore (Chief Strategy Officer at Vantage) wrote a brilliant piece for his Retail Media Leapfrog Series newsletter that draws a surprising parallel between the famous Fermi Paradox and the current state of retail media. And with Drew's permission I'm sharing sections of his essay in today's podcast.
The piece delves into a big, uncomfortable question: if retail media is such a massive opportunity, why are so few retailers actually winning? I walk through Drew’s concept of the “Retail Media Fermi Paradox” and unpack the structural challenges (what Drew calls “the great filters”) that are preventing most retailers from scaling. If you’ve ever wondered why the gap between Amazon/Walmart and everyone else keeps widening, this episode will get you thinking.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline
[00:00] – Why I’m featuring Drew Cashmore’s essay and why it’s a must-read 
[00:39] – The original Fermi Paradox explained and why it matters here 
[02:15] – Introducing the “Retail Media Fermi Paradox” 
[03:00] – The shocking concentration: Amazon & Walmart dominate ~90% of spend 
[04:10] – Great Filter #1: The “tactic trap” and copying Amazon’s playbook 
[05:32] – Great Filter #2: The retail media “doom loop” and underinvestment 
[08:19] – Great Filters #3 & #4: Commoditization and fragmented tech stacks 
[09:30] – Quick preview: how retailers can break through these barriers

Links & Resources
Read Drew Cashmore's essay: Retail Media Leapfrog Series: The Fermi Paradox
Subscribe to Drew's newsletter: Retail Media Leapfrog Series
Follow Drew Cashmore, Chief Strategy Officer at Vantage, on LinkedIn
Read my related articles:The Retail Media Doom Loop
Retail Media's Next Challenge: Proving Real Results
7 Ways to Break the Retail Media Doom Loop

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Today I'm unpacking a fascinating conversation from a recent episode of the Unlocking Retail Media podcast with Andrew Covato and host James Avery that reframed how I think about measurement in retail media networks. If you’ve ever wondered why brands keep getting frustrated — or why retail media struggles to prove its value — this conversation gets right to the heart of it.
I use snippets from the podcast to break down three major gaps that are holding retail media back, from misaligned measurement strategies to outdated data approaches. I also explore why the biggest ad platforms succeed where retail media often fails, what sophisticated advertisers are really asking for today, and how measurement needs to evolve to stay credible. If you're in retail media, brand marketing, or ad tech, this is an important primer on how to tackle measurement head on.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline
[00:00] - The recurring disconnect: why brands ask for data but get dashboards instead
[01:09] - Lesson #1: Why big ad platforms win by staying measurement agnostic
[04:00] - Lesson #2: Retail media is solving for the wrong measurement questions
[05:15] - The shift from user-level attribution to aggregated modeling & experimentation
[07:03] - Lesson #3: Why first-party lift is “grading your own homework”
[09:00] - The measurement maturity curve: from attribution to incrementality to MMM
[10:00] - The hidden problem: why most brands can’t actually evaluate the data they’re given

Links & Resources
Listen to the full Unlocking Retail Media episode: Measurement Science and the Future of Performance with Andrew Covato
Subscribe to Unlocking Retail Media on Apple Podcasts
Follow Andrew Covato, Founder & CEO @ Growth By Science, on LinkedIn
Follow James Avery, Founder & CEO @ Kevel , on LinkedIn
Read my related articles:83% of retail media campaigns can be gamed on iROAS. Here’s how (The Drum)
Brands demand retail media standards. Retailers say it's too hard. Do they kind of have a point?
Retail Media's Measurement Problem: It's Not Just the Retailers

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Today I’m revisiting a recent article I penned for The Drum and digging into something that feels almost counterintuitive in a world obsessed with AI and automation: the resurgence of print magazines, catalogs, and direct mail as powerful retail media channels. I share why Gen Z and millennials are actively seeking out physical, tactile experiences, and how that shift is creating a surprising opportunity for retailers and brands to reconnect with shoppers in more meaningful, high-trust environments.
I also walk through real-world examples — from Costco to Amazon to retailers in Australia — who are already turning editorial content and print media into high-performing retail media assets. If you’ve been thinking about the future of retail media as purely digital, this episode might challenge that assumption. Because in an AI-driven shopping landscape, the most defensible advantage might just be sitting on your customer’s kitchen counter!

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline
[00:00] – Why Gen Z is rediscovering print, vinyl, and physical retail experiences
[01:02] – How AI-powered shopping is threatening traditional retail media margins
[01:37] – The overlooked opportunity in retailer magazines and print media
[02:03] – Costco Connection: scale, trust, and measurable purchase influence
[04:15] – Bunnings and building a retail media network around print content
[06:19] – Chemist Warehouse and turning content into a full media brand
[08:00] – The rise of programmatic direct mail and why it’s outperforming digital
[09:32] – Escaping the retail media “doom loop” with editorial strategies

Links & Resources
My original article on The Drum: The humble magazine might be retail media's most defensible surface
Read my related articles:Dark Search, Broken Signals, and What Comes Next for Retail Media
Standing Room Only: What Shoptalk Attendees Wanted Most Wasn’t on the Main Stage
While We Debate What's 'Really' Agentic, Retail Media's Foundation Is Already Shifting

Atlanta-based retail media professionals: Wednesday, April 1 is the next In-Person Atlanta Happy Hour! RSVP here.
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