Trade with Conviction

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz, freight rates hitting record highs, and diesel cracks near $100/bbl. The real constraint now is products, not crude, with no clear sign of demand destruction.

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Chapters: 

(01:40) Petroline strike and the Hormuz squeeze: Saudi's Yanbu pipeline takes a direct hit, Houthis seize Mocha, and barrels are forced back through Hormuz.

(06:25) Crude: Iraq's discount and Saudi's pincer: Iraq sells at steep discounts to move barrels via ADNOC as Saudi crude gets squeezed on every side.

(18:40) Freight: the Hormuz premium blows out: Rastanura to Ningbo nears $1 million a day as owners charge up to $500k extra to transit Hormuz.

(34:25) Fuel oil: Saudi's feedstock problem: Lost Red Sea refining capacity tightens hi-5 further, with LSFO diverted into conversion units instead of blending.

(38:53) Diesel: record cracks, closed arbs: Gasoil cracks near $100/bbl and Asian spreads hit decade highs, yet most European and Asian arbs stay shut.

(47:29) Gasoline and the missing demand destruction: Every signal says sell, but nobody's finding the demand destruction that should be capping this rally.

James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market.

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Chapters: 

(00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions.

(06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles.

(09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high.

(19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades.

(22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging.

(30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas.

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Chapters: 

(00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet.

(04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles.

(17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight.

(19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time.

(35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread.

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Chapters:

(00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck.

(05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude.

(12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens.

(18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR.

(28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows.

Chapters:

(01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman
Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait.

(07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket
Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage.

(09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout
Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs.

(14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses
US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows.

(24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause
TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut.

(31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade
A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.