Trade with Conviction

James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market.

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Chapters: 

(00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions.

(06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles.

(09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high.

(19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades.

(22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging.

(30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas.

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Chapters: 

(00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet.

(04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles.

(17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight.

(19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time.

(35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread.

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Chapters:

(00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck.

(05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude.

(12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens.

(18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR.

(28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows.

Chapters:

(01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman
Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait.

(07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket
Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage.

(09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout
Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs.

(14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses
US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows.

(24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause
TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut.

(31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade
A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.

June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market.

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Chapters: 

 

(00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate
Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers.

(04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap
IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap.

(08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade
ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in.

(11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze
Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky.

(17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite
Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open.

(21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west
Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.