The Julia La Roche Show

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects
Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/
X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Protect your capital
0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg
1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy
6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect
10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium
13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts
18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008
23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds
26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?
31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went
36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived
37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern
41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair
42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown
45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations
50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk
53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve
54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure
1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown
1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave
1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries
1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
⁠
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome back
00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”
02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?
03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war
07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?
08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again
09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices
11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference
13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected
15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor
17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court
18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027
20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?
21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine
24:36 The AI reset and circular finance
26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages
29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly
31:34 What Whalen is watching next

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle
0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald
1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”
2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down
4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”
8:31 The ConvertBond.com story
9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans
11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?
11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks
15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle
16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash
21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade
23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms
24:43 The case for gold and silver
27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
⁠
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances
03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue
04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale
07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?
09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back
10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market
11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call
14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep
15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit
18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?
19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears
23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”
24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation
26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?
28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?
30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?
33:58 – What Chris is watching next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Website: https://www.principles.com/
X: https://x.com/RayDalio
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum
1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971
6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force
7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?
9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits
12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline
16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns
17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929
21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification
22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)
24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%
25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS
29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare
31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict
33:54 Closing

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.