#309 Chris Whalen Warns of Year-End Liquidity Crunch
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values. Links:   The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen   Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/  Timestamps:0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter 4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing 6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall14:45 Housing correction ahead? 27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings 28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain 30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts
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#308 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Risks Repeating December 2018 Liquidity Crisis With Rate Hold
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC minutes. Danielle discusses the deep divisions within the Federal Reserve and their controversial decision-making heading into December. She argues the Fed is willfully ignoring abundant alternative data sources like ADP's weekly reports while claiming to fly blind without official jobs data—data that won't be released until after their December meeting due to administrative delays. Booth warns that if the Fed doesn't cut rates in December, they risk triggering a liquidity crisis similar to December 2018, when Powell's hawkish stance caused a market bloodbath on Christmas Eve and forced him to reverse course. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:   Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & post-FOMC reaction0:27 - Deep divisions within the Federal Reserve1:47 - Fed's tone deafness on inflation concerns2:05 - Politics at the Federal Open Market Committee3:32 - Alternative data sources: ADP & jobless claims5:38 - The irony: administration's self-inflicted rate cut problem6:51 - ADP data: what Powell said vs. what the Fed does7:32 - Market reaction & Nvidia's impact8:13 - Should the Fed cut rates in December?9:39 - Powell's contacts: the willful blindness problem10:12 - Fed independence vs. politicization11:28 - The damage of playing politics with monetary policy13:51 - Treasury yields & market concerns17:38 - Debt servicing crisis & political implications26:54 - Private credit & private equity discussions27:30 - Liquidity crisis warning: emergency rate cut risk28:44 - Question for Powell?29:27 - Why an emergency cut may be necessary31:52 - Closing thoughts
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#307 Brian Hirschmann: Gold to Double From Here In Next Crisis, Most Dangerous Time in Financial History
Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point8:10 Are we past the point of no return?9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs34:04 Bitcoin39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario42:00 Lessons from David Swensen45:19 Closing remarks
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#306 Chris Whalen: Markets Running Out of Buyers, Fed Flying Blind & Setting Up for 2018-Style Repo Crisis
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.Links:   The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen   Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/  Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" 0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April 2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves 6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up 8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly 8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again 10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again? 14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis? 17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling? 20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested 24:44 - Private credit concerns 25:48 - Government shutdown resolution 28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy 30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week
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#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing
James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?29:03 - Credit markets29:07 - K-shaped economy explained37:08 - Position for currency deterioration38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 202540:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem50:59 - What's keeping James up at night55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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