The Julia La Roche Show

In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"
0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only
1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?
4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold
6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028
8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical
9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001
10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently
13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?
15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations
16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?
18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending
20:51 - Common shares or preferred?
21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation
23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?
25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency
27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT
28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review
30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping

Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Gold/silver discussion
02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600
03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar
05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks
07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months
10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next
12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends
15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling
19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade
22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis
23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here
26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer
29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery
31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market
35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance
37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel
40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain

In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan
0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A)
1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation?
4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR?
5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates?
6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up?
9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean?
12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals
13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year?
15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives
16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be?
18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze
21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year
23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week

Economic forecaster and bestselling author Harry Dent makes his debut on the show with one of the most aggressive bearish calls we've hosted. Dent — who built his reputation forecasting the 1980s–2000s boom and Dow 10,000 when almost nobody believed it — walks through the three long-term cycles he uses to map the economy decades ahead: the 39-year generational spending wave, the 45- and 90-year technology innovation cycles, and a geopolitical cycle. His conclusion is that the downturn that should have arrived in 2008 was smothered by roughly $31 trillion in stimulus, creating a bubble that now spans stocks, real estate, and even gold. He lays out what a full reversion looks like — a first-wave crash he thinks could be visible by October, housing down 60% in the middle of the country and more at the high end, and a path back toward the 2009 lows for equities — and explains why he believes long-dated Treasuries, not gold, are the only real safe haven. Dent also makes the case that the bust is not the enemy: it's where innovation and affordability come from, and where the millennial generation finally gets its shot. Looking past the washout, he sees India and Southeast Asia as the growth engines of the next four decades, China as structurally finished, and US tech as the thing to buy when it's on sale.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
https://hsdent.com/hs-dent-forecast/

00:00 – Intro: Harry Dent makes his debut
00:59 – How demographics became his life's work
03:23 – The 45- and 90-year cycles that create bubbles
04:15 – Calling the 2007 top back in the 1980s
08:07 – AI is in its infancy — and that's when the biggest crashes happen
09:00 – India is the next China
10:28 – 2008 was 1930 all over again — and $31 trillion papered over it
13:08 – Anatomy of the everything bubble
14:30 – The average Ohio house down 60%. High-end down 70–80%
16:47 – The millennials who got priced out are the ones who win
19:12 – How far stocks fall: 90% on the S&P, 96% on the Nasdaq
22:20 – The first wave: 42% in 2.6 months
24:38 – "I was the most bullish forecaster on earth"
25:40 – Positioning for the first crash: SQQQ and sizing
27:06 – Why TLT and the 30-year Treasury are the trade after that
31:08 – The case against gold: it joined the everything bubble
34:21 – Which house should you sell? Not the one you think
39:15 – China's 22% empty real estate and the coming reckoning
45:00 – Nobody in a bubble sees the bubble because they're high on it
48:55 – Watch October

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the 777 Partners bankruptcy — a sprawling collapse touching insurance, reinsurance, soccer clubs, and airlines that he says is a preview of how private credit ultimately unwinds: slowly, messily, and with fraud along the way. He explains why the contagion risk to insurance matters most for ordinary people, since firms like Apollo, Brookfield, and Blue Owl use insurance balance sheets to fund private credit strategies, leaving annuity and life policyholders exposed. Chris also digs into United Wholesale Mortgage, arguing the real problem wasn't the Two Harbors hedge but years of cash extraction and overvalued servicing assets — and what Oaktree's $1.5 billion rescue means now that "the grim reaper of Wall Street" is in the building. On markets, he describes a manic tape where cycles no longer exist, questions whether AI valuations survive Chinese competitors offering the same functionality at a tenth of the cost, and wonders whether Kevin Warsh will finally let the market take a hit. He then makes the case that the cooler CPI print is masking a genuine inflation problem: diesel is up roughly 35% since February, key industrial chemicals and LNG capacity was destroyed in the Iran conflict, and those input costs are rippling into food, housing, construction, and packaging. Finally, Chris explains why he thinks the gold and silver bull markets remain fully intact, and what the Byzantine Empire taught him about what happens when gold runs short.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
777 Partners blog post: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira879
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:37 - 777 Partners bankruptcy: what the demise of private credit looks like
3:56 - Does this accelerate the slow-motion train wreck?
5:45 - Contagion risk to insurance: annuities, life policies, and private credit balance sheets
7:36 - United Wholesale Mortgage, Mat Ishbia, and the Oaktree rescue
10:44 - Oaktree, the "grim reaper of Wall Street," and stress in mortgage lending
11:00 - DSCR loans and the rental-property workaround
12:13 - Monetary Metals: earn a yield on your gold
13:22 - Markets at records: "the numbers are too big"
15:20 - The Warsh Fed: will bailouts end?
16:05 - AI valuations, the price war, and Chinese competition
17:36 - Inflation beneath the surface: input costs are exploding
18:08 - Diesel up 35%, heating oil, chemicals, and the fall squeeze
20:02 - Food prices, farmers, and the Iran war fallout
22:39 - Spillover into housing, construction materials, and packaging
24:19 - Gold's run higher and Chinese buying
25:13 - Silver: a commercial trade, and the supply problem
26:44 - The WGA precious metals top 25 list
28:14 - Lessons from Byzantine monetary history
29:38 - Parting thoughts: private credit surprises, the Middle East, and the midterms
30:39 - Closing