#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing
James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?29:03 - Credit markets29:07 - K-shaped economy explained37:08 - Position for currency deterioration38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 202540:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem50:59 - What's keeping James up at night55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information
--------
56:57
--------
56:57
#304 Ed Dowd: We're Already in a Recession, "One More Pump Then It's Over" for Stocks, Oil to $30, China Facing Crisis, Deflation Scare, & Gold to $10K by 2030
Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:09 - Macro view5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming11:00 - Dollar outlook 12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 203017:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality 35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020 40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars 40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession 41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out 42:30 - Immigration 48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now 49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility 50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment 52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down 54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research
--------
55:19
--------
55:19
#303 Chris Whalen: Stocks Running Out of Buyers, NYC's Future Under Mamdani & The Case for Gold
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Welcome and introduction1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-285:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit20:37 - Duration risk story at banks27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table35:59 - The debasement trade39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end42:05 - Closing remarks
--------
42:45
--------
42:45
#302 Whitney Tilson: The Hedge Fund Manager Who Ran Against Mamdani on the "Trojan Horse" Mayor, Why NYC Will Thrive Anyway, Riding This Bull Market & His Top Stock Picks and "Stinky Six" to Avoid
Value investor and former New York City mayoral candidate Whitney Tilson returns to The Julia La Roche Show following the election of Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, as NYC's new mayor. Tilson reflects on the election results, expressing concern about the candidate he called a "Trojan horse for the DSA" with dangerous ideas about defunding police and seizing private property—yet remains bullish on New York City's future. He also shares his market outlook, favorite long ideas including Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon, and the "stinky six" stocks he's avoiding right now.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://stansberryresearch.com/https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-dailyTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome Whitney Tilson, day after NYC mayoral election1:04 - Mixed feelings about election night2:00 - Warnings about Zohran Mamdani and democratic socialist concerns2:45 - Still bullish on New York despite election outcome3:10 - What Mamdani's election says about the city3:22 - Democratic Party dynamics and Trump reaction4:37 - Why Mamdani won: identifying affordability as key issue4:54 - Mamdani's effective messaging: free buses, freeze the rent, universal childcare5:45 - Economics don't work: the promises can't be funded6:30 - Mamdani as a gifted politician and brilliant public speaker7:10 - The "Trojan horse for the DSA" warning7:43 - Whitney's concerns about Mamdani: hostility to Israel, defund police rhetoric8:30 - Mamdani tacking to center: keeping Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch9:27 - NYC's vibe is back post-pandemic9:38 - Big employers making long-term commitments to NYC10:25 - Risk of turning into San Francisco10:52 - Wait and see mode: wealthy residents considering leaving14:30 - Why Mamdani is still dangerous16:06 - Running for mayor: what surprised Whitney20:00 - Hope that Mamdani learns from cautionary tales36:56 - Investment ideas: favorite longs44:00 - Stocks to avoid: the "stinky six"47:04 - Berkshire's massive cash pile: $382 billion51:47 - What's keeping Whitney up at night56:30 - What makes Whitney optimistic: America's economic recovery59:38 - Closing remarks
--------
1:00:44
--------
1:00:44
#301 Dr. Gary Shilling: Labor Markets Weakening, Recession Concerns & Why Markets May Wake Up Soon
Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 301 on FOMC day. In this episode, Dr. Shilling warns that the economy is cooling with weakening labor markets and stagnant job creation, yet security markets continue to rise without reflecting this underlying weakness. Despite the government shutdown limiting official data, private sector information reveals businesses are cautious about demand and inflation, while consumers face limited financial slack due to heavy student loan and credit card borrowing. Shilling believes the Fed is cutting rates because they fear a recession is on the horizon, and he cautions that "we're probably gonna wake up one of these days and find that things are really a lot weaker than we expect" - at which point markets could deteriorate quickly. He also expresses concern about the "debt bomb" - the massive accumulation of government debt now exceeding $38 trillion with no logical endpoint in sight. However, Shilling remains impressed by the adaptability and resilience of the US economy, noting how it has successfully adjusted to disruptions like tariffs that many predicted would be disastrous.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:48 - Big picture macro view: economy appears to be cooling1:30 - Government shutdown: private data filling the holes2:00 - Weakening labor markets: limited new hiring2:45 - Businesses cautious about demand and inflation3:17 - Recession concerns: won't know until well into it3:45 - Security markets not reflecting economic weakness4:03 - Fed Chair Powell presser context (October 29th FOMC meeting)4:32 - Why markets are overly focused on Fed actions5:30 - Fed's tightrope walk: keeping economy above water6:25 - Are rate cuts signaling recession fears?6:34 - Fed concerned about softening labor markets7:20 - Finding hidden vulnerabilities during data blackout7:51 - Labor market concerns: limited consumer slack8:20 - Heavy borrowing: student loans and credit cards27:24 - US fiscal picture: debt north of $38 trillion27:45 - The debt bomb concept explained28:45 - Massive global debt expansion concerns29:49 - What happens when debt reaches its limit?30:23 - What's keeping Dr. Shilling up at night31:15 - Lack of concern about debt accumulation32:00 - What makes him hopeful: US economy's strength and adaptability32:46 - Economic adaptability to disruptions33:11 - Tariffs discussion: six months later perspective33:46 - How economies adapt to tariff disruptions35:03 - Where to find Dr. Shilling's work35:25 - Parting thoughts: avoiding fads of the moment36:37 - Closing remarksAccess Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
Ireland