#262 George Noble: We're In A Regime Shift — End of US Dominance And Now Is The Time For Gold And Foreign Markets
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, argues we're in a regime shift where US exceptionalism is ending. He sees global rotation away from dollar assets as foreign capital heads home. He expects bond yields to rise significantly until markets force politicians' hands, recommending investors get out of paper money and into scarce assets like gold. Noble is bearish on US equities, especially consumer stocks and the Mag-7, favoring foreign markets and gold as protection against fiscal irresponsibility.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:05 Big picture macro view - regime shift and end of US exceptionalism3:56 Dollar decline and foreign capital rotation 6:29 Which regions benefit from global rotation 9:48 Fiscal mess - default vs. devalue the debt 12:49 How markets will force politicians' hand 15:40 Fed rate cut expectations and recession probability 19:57 Doge criticism - why spending cuts were never realistic 23:33 Party continues until "Mr. Bond shows up" 24:33 Get out of paper money - gold and scarce assets 25:24 Bitcoin discussion and getting "orange pilled" 29:12 Japanese yen looks cheap, avoid US consumer stocks 31:08 Passive investing problems and stock picker's market 33:28 Gold has room to run - contrarian view 38:08 Lessons from closing ETF 42:39 Parting thoughts and upcoming investment conference
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#261 Mel Mattison: "We're Just Beginning to Inflate" a Massive Asset Bubble - S&P 7000, Bitcoin $150K, Gold $3500
Mel Mattison, a fintech executive with 25+ years in financial services, argues the U.S. is entering fiscal dominance where massive deficits will fuel asset bubbles rather than economic collapse. He correctly predicted the S&P's drop to 5,000 in early 2025 and expects it to reach 7,000 by year-end, driven by Trump administration policies that prioritize growth over spending cuts. Mattison believes the 10-year Treasury rate is irrelevant since 85% of government debt is issued in short-term bills tied to Fed funds, allowing borrowing costs to fall even as deficits rise. With 2025 targets of Bitcoin at $150K and gold at $3,500, plus S&P at 12,000 within years, he sees this as the beginning of the biggest asset bubble since the 1990s dot-com era.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links:X: https://x.com/MelMattison1The 10 Year Ain’t What It Used to Be: https://x.com/MelMattison1/status/1922710289486627300Website: https://www.melmattison.com/Book: https://www.amazon.com/Quoz-Financial-Thriller-Mel-Mattison/dp/B0CV89VLMYTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of Mel Mattison0:58 Background and macro framework3:15 Fiscal dominance and deficit spending reality5:37 Salsa and sour cream market theory9:11 Why markets will hit 7,000 by year end10:52 Calling the market bottom at 5,11512:22 Why rate fears are overblown16:10 Monthly treasury statement insights17:05 Budget surpluses signal collapse, deficits signal bubbles18:06 Riding the asset bubble strategy20:41 Government borrowing costs going down despite rising debt23:27 Policy makers have more rabbits to pull out24:04 USD printing machine philosophy26:57 S&P 12,000 target within few years28:32 Biggest asset bubble of our lifetime30:40 Bitcoin $150K and gold $3,500 predictions35:30 Federal Reserve rate cut forecasts38:52 Unlocking home equity through HELOCs42:06 Massive stimulus through front-end manipulation42:21 Trump's oil and energy strategy46:38 Fed funds as baby boomer stimulus53:13 Parting thoughts and where to follow
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#260 David Woo: Stock Market Making "Huge Mistake" On Trade War - Next 6 Weeks Are Going To Be Scarier
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 260 to discuss tariffs, markets, and geopolitics. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of David Woo 1:09 Macro picture and Trump's market influence 1:45 China tariff capitulation analysis 5:36 Trump as tactical trader 6:26 Understanding Trump's constraints 11:16 Investment strategy for trade war 17:32 How to win a trade war 23:03 Defensive positioning advice 24:30 Ukraine-Russia war failure 32:05 Geopolitical risk ranking 39:07 Do sanctions work? 43:55 Prediction markets on trade deals 48:53 Conservative movement struggles globally 49:28 Trump 2.0 performance critique 52:26 Elon Musk and DOGE disappointment 56:05 Closing thoughts
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#259 Hedge Fund Telemetry's Thomas Thornton On The Biggest Macro Risk That Could Trigger Panic Buttons
Tommy Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the volatile market conditions of 2025 . He examines bond market risks, highlighting concerns about rising treasury yields and potential systemic impacts if rates break key levels. Thornton analyzes tariffs, the Fed, tax cuts, the national debt, and the probability of a recession. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/https://www.x.com/tommythornton Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:44 - Market volatility conditions in 20253:51 - Comparing Trump 1.0 vs 2.0 economic challenges6:16 - Bond market risks and treasury yields8:40 - Tariffs impact on retailers and consumers10:46 - Federal Reserve's stance and labor market focus14:54 - Potential spillover effects from bond to equity markets18:22 - Technical analysis deep dive with charts24:53 - Overbought market conditions indicators27:40 - Wave analysis and market pattern predictions35:26 - Gold market analysis and trading approach43:34 - Recession outlook and economic projections46:31 - Stagflation risks and Fed response49:07 - Tax cut challenges in current deficit environment54:55 - Closing thoughts and investment advice
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#258 Chris Whalen: No Recession, Tariffs Just 'a Distraction,' Why Stocks Rise & Gold Is 'a Great Trad
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show to discuss his newly released book "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: kalshi.com/julia In this episode, Whalen offers a contrarian perspective on current markets, dismissing recession fears while highlighting a "silent recession" in commercial real estate. He draws parallels between Trump and Andrew Jackson, explains why the Treasury-Fed relationship is America's most important economic factor, and predicts zero rate cuts this year despite market expectations. Whalen argues that America's addiction to inflation has benefited asset holders while hurting average citizens, creating a housing affordability crisis and warning of an impending commercial real estate collapse that could become "the new subprime."Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 - Discussion about Chris's new book release 2:04 - Current market analysis and tariff situation 2:35 - Trump's fiscal plans and Congressional challenges 3:58 - Credit to Chris for predicting tariffs as "distraction" 4:21 - Chris's investment positions 5:09 - America's addiction to debt 7:35 - Treasury market and Fed priorities analysis 9:02 - Banks' lack of credit demand issue 11:22 - Inflation misconceptions 13:43 - Trump/Jackson parallel 15:33 - Fed/Treasury relationship change post-2008 17:09 - Trump's vision for economic role of government 18:06 - Solutions for national debt 19:37 - Inflation impact across economic classes 21:33 - Housing market issues and starter home costs 24:56 - 2% inflation compounding effects 26:08 - Inflation's role in addressing national debt 28:49 - Recession outlook discussion 30:36 - "Silent recession" in commercial real estate 31:55 - Why rate cuts aren't needed 33:37 - Commercial real estate as "the new subprime" 35:29 - Government as housing lender of last resort problems 37:06 - Closing remarks
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
Ireland