#302 Whitney Tilson: The Hedge Fund Manager Who Ran Against Mamdani on the "Trojan Horse" Mayor, Why NYC Will Thrive Anyway, Riding This Bull Market & His Top Stock Picks and "Stinky Six" to Avoid
Value investor and former New York City mayoral candidate Whitney Tilson returns to The Julia La Roche Show following the election of Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, as NYC's new mayor. Tilson reflects on the election results, expressing concern about the candidate he called a "Trojan horse for the DSA" with dangerous ideas about defunding police and seizing private property—yet remains bullish on New York City's future. He also shares his market outlook, favorite long ideas including Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon, and the "stinky six" stocks he's avoiding right now.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://stansberryresearch.com/https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-dailyTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome Whitney Tilson, day after NYC mayoral election1:04 - Mixed feelings about election night2:00 - Warnings about Zohran Mamdani and democratic socialist concerns2:45 - Still bullish on New York despite election outcome3:10 - What Mamdani's election says about the city3:22 - Democratic Party dynamics and Trump reaction4:37 - Why Mamdani won: identifying affordability as key issue4:54 - Mamdani's effective messaging: free buses, freeze the rent, universal childcare5:45 - Economics don't work: the promises can't be funded6:30 - Mamdani as a gifted politician and brilliant public speaker7:10 - The "Trojan horse for the DSA" warning7:43 - Whitney's concerns about Mamdani: hostility to Israel, defund police rhetoric8:30 - Mamdani tacking to center: keeping Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch9:27 - NYC's vibe is back post-pandemic9:38 - Big employers making long-term commitments to NYC10:25 - Risk of turning into San Francisco10:52 - Wait and see mode: wealthy residents considering leaving14:30 - Why Mamdani is still dangerous16:06 - Running for mayor: what surprised Whitney20:00 - Hope that Mamdani learns from cautionary tales36:56 - Investment ideas: favorite longs44:00 - Stocks to avoid: the "stinky six"47:04 - Berkshire's massive cash pile: $382 billion51:47 - What's keeping Whitney up at night56:30 - What makes Whitney optimistic: America's economic recovery59:38 - Closing remarks
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#301 Dr. Gary Shilling: Labor Markets Weakening, Recession Concerns & Why Markets May Wake Up Soon
Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 301 on FOMC day. In this episode, Dr. Shilling warns that the economy is cooling with weakening labor markets and stagnant job creation, yet security markets continue to rise without reflecting this underlying weakness. Despite the government shutdown limiting official data, private sector information reveals businesses are cautious about demand and inflation, while consumers face limited financial slack due to heavy student loan and credit card borrowing. Shilling believes the Fed is cutting rates because they fear a recession is on the horizon, and he cautions that "we're probably gonna wake up one of these days and find that things are really a lot weaker than we expect" - at which point markets could deteriorate quickly. He also expresses concern about the "debt bomb" - the massive accumulation of government debt now exceeding $38 trillion with no logical endpoint in sight. However, Shilling remains impressed by the adaptability and resilience of the US economy, noting how it has successfully adjusted to disruptions like tariffs that many predicted would be disastrous.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:48 - Big picture macro view: economy appears to be cooling1:30 - Government shutdown: private data filling the holes2:00 - Weakening labor markets: limited new hiring2:45 - Businesses cautious about demand and inflation3:17 - Recession concerns: won't know until well into it3:45 - Security markets not reflecting economic weakness4:03 - Fed Chair Powell presser context (October 29th FOMC meeting)4:32 - Why markets are overly focused on Fed actions5:30 - Fed's tightrope walk: keeping economy above water6:25 - Are rate cuts signaling recession fears?6:34 - Fed concerned about softening labor markets7:20 - Finding hidden vulnerabilities during data blackout7:51 - Labor market concerns: limited consumer slack8:20 - Heavy borrowing: student loans and credit cards27:24 - US fiscal picture: debt north of $38 trillion27:45 - The debt bomb concept explained28:45 - Massive global debt expansion concerns29:49 - What happens when debt reaches its limit?30:23 - What's keeping Dr. Shilling up at night31:15 - Lack of concern about debt accumulation32:00 - What makes him hopeful: US economy's strength and adaptability32:46 - Economic adaptability to disruptions33:11 - Tariffs discussion: six months later perspective33:46 - How economies adapt to tariff disruptions35:03 - Where to find Dr. Shilling's work35:25 - Parting thoughts: avoiding fads of the moment36:37 - Closing remarksAccess Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
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#300 Danielle DiMartino Booth: "Something Else Is Going On" at the Fed - December Rate Cut in Doubt Despite Weakening Labor Data and Worker Struggles
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.Learn more about Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities16:19 Private credit market concerns27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter
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#299 Michael Pento: Market Warning on Three Record Bubbles, Why the Fed Can't Save Us & Why He's Net Long (For Now)
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche for episode 299. Pento continues to warn of three unprecedented asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and credit existing concurrently. Despite being net long and up handsomely this year, he emphasizes the critical need for active management. Pento explains why the next crisis will likely stem from spiking bond yields and intractable inflation rather than insolvency alone, making traditional Fed interventions ineffective. He argues that any meaningful correction would be catastrophic given the massive scale of current distortions, while the Fed desperately tries to keep bubbles inflated through rate cuts and resumed quantitative easing.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Intro and welcome back Michael Pento0:59 Big picture macro view 1:38 Three unprecedented asset bubbles: Stocks, bonds, and credit3:38 Inflation accelerating 4:01 Fed panicking to keep the bubble going6:56 Are you nervous being net long the market?8:35 The next crisis will be different - Stagflation risk9:43 Bond market revolt scenario12:28 Magnificent Seven concentration risk14:15 Government shutdown and lack of economic data16:19 Treasury issuance and bond market dynamics18:42 Federal budget deficit concerns20:33 Fed's balance sheet and quantitative tightening ending24:18 Bifurcated economy 36:45 Political pressure on the Fed38:50 Trump's economic policies and inflation risks40:33 Tariffs and their inflationary impact46:23 What keeps Michael up at night?47:50 The great reconciliation of asset prices coming49:02 Where to find Michael's work - Pento Portfolio Strategies50:10 Closing thoughts
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#298 'Quoth The Raven' Chris Irons: We Are Completely Off The Rails In Unprecedented Territory
Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearchSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts8:00 - Young generation following monetary policy10:00 - Gold16:00 - The debasement trade going mainstream18:40 - Fiscal picture23:00 - Gold, feels we are on the precipice of a big change28:00 - Short selling 43:00 - The ultimate bubble 45:00 - Closing
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
Ireland