The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors
0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy
1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels
2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy
3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing
4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin
5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them
5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries
6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year
6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%
7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?
7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything
8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead
8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall
9:30 Financial repression is the only way out
10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all
11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation
12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%
13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels
13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years
14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P
15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P
15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy
16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package
17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings
18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals
19:18 Oil price and energy thesis
20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming
20:54 Precious metals positioning today
21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players
23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months
24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum
25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it
25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns
26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history
27:22 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies.

Links:
George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79
Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February
0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade
3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now
5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly
6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets
8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top
11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea
12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well
14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread
17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis
19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire
21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened
23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem
25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor
27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead
29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market
32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking
34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world
36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs
38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation
40:20 Consumer is in recession
42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food
43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy
45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place
46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom
50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality
51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF?
52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now
54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks
56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th
59:05 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.

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Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%
0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?
6:14 Market
7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money
9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 2008
9:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum
11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year
12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%
12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?
14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?
19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?
21:03 The next Countrywide?
24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh
27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact
29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?
30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming."

Links:
YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody
X: https://x.com/m3_melody
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/

Timestamps
0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season
1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen"
5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface
8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive
11:46 Tracking 86 markets now
15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast
16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave
16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years
18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50%
20:42 Warning signals
24:25 Most important thing overlooked
27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time
28:46 Spring season warning
29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly
30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced
30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly
32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work
33:04 How does this feel different from 2008?
36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling?
37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset.

Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months
0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger
2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed
3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December
4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming?
5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street
7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%)
8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics
9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name
10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs
11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows
11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy"
12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble
13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy?
14:41 What would normal market valuations look like?
15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal
17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems?
18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates
19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything
20:38 Are you still nervously long the market?
21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes
23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts?
24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model
25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position
26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war
27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome?
28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward
29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet
29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980?
31:17 What's the end game here?
33:21 Are we past the point of no return?
34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter?
35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning
36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral
37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now?
38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class
40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging
40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions
41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks
42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December?
43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future
44:01 Closing thoughts