The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris
0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy
2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation?
2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why
4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil
4:26 - Stagflation is ahead
5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut
6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April
7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make?
8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities
9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors
11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now
13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines
13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment?
18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates
20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy
21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades
21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal?
23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?
24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long
25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie?
27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?
28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly?
30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks?
31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing risks facing investors in 2026. Gundlach makes the case that we are living through a fundamental regime shift — one where the next recession brings rising long-term interest rates and a falling dollar, the exact opposite of what most investors expect. He breaks down why the private credit market is shaping up to be the defining financial stress of this cycle, drawing parallels to subprime in 2006 and revealing just how opaque and potentially dangerous the marks in that market really are. He also shares his current asset allocation, explains why American investors should have 100% of their equity exposure outside the US, and lays out two scenarios — dollar debasement or outright debt restructuring — for how America's unsustainable fiscal path eventually resolves. Plus: why he's avoiding general obligation munis in California, Illinois and New York, where gold goes from here, and his non-consensus prediction for the next presidential election.
Links:
Website: https://doubleline.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapital
X: https://x.com/truthgundlach
Economist op-ed: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/12/13/americas-debt-cannot-keep-stacking-up-says-jeffrey-gundlach

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction — Jeffrey Gundlach on the debt burden and why something has to give
1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates
16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks
17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation: 40% non-US stocks, 25% fixed income, 15% commodities, rest in cash
22:00 Private credit: why it reminds him of subprime 2006 and why it’s “a total unmitigated disaster"
38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury —  why the next Fed move actually be a hike?
42:30 Recession probability: at least 50% in 2026
47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history
50:00 The gold call: from $2,915 to $4,000 and where it goes from here
53:00 The most dangerous force in investing: not fear or greed — need
56:00 California, Illinois, New York: avoid all general obligation munis
1:00:20 Wealth taxes, billionaire flight, and why it'll cost more to administer than it raises
1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election
1:02:00 The Fourth Turning reset — why 2030 is the timeline

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.
Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.
His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.
Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.
Links:
Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/
Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/
Timestamps
0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"  
0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky
1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran?
4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers
6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time
9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth
14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp
18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever
19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM
21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance
24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer
25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash
32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"?
36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity
38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift
41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation
42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement
43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities
44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities
47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   
Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction and welcome
0:52 - Consumer credit
3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit
4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed
7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure
9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't.
11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you
13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it
13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will
15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying
16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle
19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why
20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently?
21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency"
23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary
25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years"
26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession
27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story
29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms
30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release
31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction
33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income
35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip
37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week

Peter Schiff, chief economist at Europacific Asset Management, makes the case that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the 1970s stagflation era, pointing to a $39 trillion national debt, accelerating inflation, a weakening labor market, and a new war that will drive deficits even higher. He argues the Fed is trapped — raising rates aggressively would trigger a financial collapse worse than 2008, so instead inflation will spiral into double or even triple digits, producing what he calls an "inflationary depression." Schiff sees gold, silver, and foreign stocks as the plays of the decade, warns that crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," and predicts a dollar and sovereign debt crisis that could begin overnight in China's time zone. He closes with cautious optimism that the coming crisis could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a return to free-market principles.
Links
https://x.com/PeterSchiff
Europac.com
http://SchiffGold.com

Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro & inflation going to double digits teaser 0:32 – Guest intro: Peter Schiff, Europacific Asset Management 0:45 – Why today's economy is worse than the 1970s 1:13 – National debt: $39 trillion and exploding 2:03 – Recession risk, war costs & path to $50T debt 2:53 – Why the Fed can't do what Volcker did in 1980 3:37 – Labor market reality vs. Trump's "greatest economy" claims 4:11 – GDP numbers: 2025 vs. 2024 compared 4:46 – Producer price inflation spiking — leading indicator 6:01 – Stagflation or something worse? "Inflationary depression" 6:44 – Why unemployment & inflation are understated vs. the 70s 8:05 – The Fed's impossible position: rock and a hard place 8:56 – What the Fed should do — and why it won't 9:23 – Inflation into double digits, possibly triple digits 10:13 – The short-term pain we need but won't take 12:02 – Why this will be worse than 2008 12:31 – A dollar crisis and sovereign debt crisis instead 13:27 – What the Fed should actually do right now 14:18 – Stocks vs. gold: the Dow in real terms 15:15 – Gold's run to $5,500 and today's selloff explained 16:29 – Why rate cut timing misses the point — real rates matter 17:19 – Housing market: most overpriced ever, 30–40% decline needed 21:44 – Dollar crisis: what is the biggest threat to the dollar? 22:05 – How the war is affecting the dollar short-term 23:10 – Tariffs, Greenland, and losing global credibility 25:27 – Could Trump succeed on foreign policy?27:08 – How has the war changed Schiff's investing strategy? 27:21 – Energy stocks, gold miners & the opportunity right now 28:54 – Gold, silver & mining stocks — where to buy 31:10 – Parallels to the 2008 pre-crisis gold and dollar moves 32:18 – How a dollar crisis unfolds — what to watch for 34:17 – Money rotating out of the US into foreign markets 35:15 – Early innings on the rotation? Is this a new regime? 36:08 – Retail investors in crypto instead of gold — a big mistake 38:25 – Does Schiff have a gold price target? 38:36 – The Fed, the dollar, and gold since 1913 41:47 – 2028 prediction: Democrats win and make it worse 45:04 – Democrats will run against capitalism — and win 46:15 – What is Trump's economic endgame? 52:52 – Biggest risk & reason for hope 58:38 – Wrap-up & closing