The Julia La Roche Show

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/
X: https://x.com/agurevich23
Website: https://honteinv.com/

0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition
1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now
2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today
3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals
4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion"
4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates
5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be
7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles
8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy
9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken
11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously?
13:13 Deflation, not inflation
14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again
15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious
16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal?
18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty
20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me"
23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses
24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over?
25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down
27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning
29:47 The underappreciated power of carry
32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler
33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator
36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23
38:26 Has the macro investing world changed?
39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now
42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion
45:18 Is energy the trade?
46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting
48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome
1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction
2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC
3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation
3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish?
4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect
5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much
6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like
6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress
7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits?
7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor
9:32 Is staying on the board political?
10:32 What will Powell's legacy be?
12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor
13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't
14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable"
16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000
17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming
18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx
19:19 Personnel costs and inflation
19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming?
20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver
22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings
24:26 Where Chris is putting his money
24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview
26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default
28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows
28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?
32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead
34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock."

Links:
Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/
Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome
1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction
3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped
4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse
5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates
6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability
7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people
8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed
9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity
10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming?
10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal
12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts
12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller
15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house?
16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair?
17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions
19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell
21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising
22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real
25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors
26:45 Gold is a meme now
29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials
31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies
32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year
33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors
33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing
2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers
4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?
5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher
6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas
7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials
8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction
9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater
10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026
12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts
14:15 How lenders are feeling right now
15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000
16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms
18:05 You pay for it after the election
18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?
21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?
22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments
26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy
27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?
28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means
32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate
33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate
35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.

More about Rickards:
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links:  
http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/
https://x.com/RealJimRickards

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro
2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first
5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025
6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins
8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles
9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos?
11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch
13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained
15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns
17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980)
18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy
19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative
21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No)
23:15 What triggers a financial panic
24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money"
26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from
28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market
30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto
33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem
35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving
37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences
42:26 Gold does well in deflation too
45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009)
49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher
51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700%
55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier
56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule
58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input
63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO
67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification