The Julia La Roche Show

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on
0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?
1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis
2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes
4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency
5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no
6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?
7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy
9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy
10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway
11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily
12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?
14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week
15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?
16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal
17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle
18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)
20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners
21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K
22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China
22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions
24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?
25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea
26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?
28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring
29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?
30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"
31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks
32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book
33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 — Intro
1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal
3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now
4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs
5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn
7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next
8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to
9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit
11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing
12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end
17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell
18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury
21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 49
23:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?
25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish
27:42 — What the bond market is signaling
29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in
31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start
33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book
34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk
36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners
37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"
0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only
1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?
4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold
6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028
8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical
9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001
10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently
13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?
15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations
16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?
18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending
20:51 - Common shares or preferred?
21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation
23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?
25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency
27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT
28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review
30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping

Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Gold/silver discussion
02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600
03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar
05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks
07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months
10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next
12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends
15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling
19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade
22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis
23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here
26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer
29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery
31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market
35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance
37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel
40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain

In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan
0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A)
1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation?
4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR?
5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates?
6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up?
9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean?
12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals
13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year?
15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives
16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be?
18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze
21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year
23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week