The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the US is "the loser" in Iran — like Afghanistan and Vietnam, we went in without a clear vision of what victory looks like and now we're backing down without reopening the Strait. He says China is the real winner, Iran is planning to toll the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely in yuan or bitcoin, and the Saudis and Israelis are furious. On the economy he says rising energy prices will force the Fed to wait on cuts, making 2026 "a very different year than 2025." He calls the peak in US home prices — Q1 2026 was probably it — and says flat to slightly down is the base case, with markets like Houston and Clearwater already hurting. His portfolio is defensive: mostly income assets, Annaly, and he's still buying gold and silver on the dip as his only high-conviction trade.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap
0:52 - Trump's "total capitulation" on Iran — from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to ceasefire
2:10 - The winners & losers
5:00 - The China-US story — why should Beijing help Trump?
6:20 - The dollar narrative — why Whalen is skeptical of the "end of the dollar" story
7:40 - Gold still outperforming US stocks over the past 12 months
8:10 - Whalen bought gold this morning — still his only high conviction trade
10:18 - China's Treasury holdings — trading securities for cash deposits, not dumping dollars
11:20 - Yuan and Bitcoin
14:38 - Inflation and no rate cut at the April FOMC
15:32 - 2026 is going to be a very different year than 2025
16:10 - Whalen's portfolio right now — risk off, income generating, precious metals
16:45 - Liquidated Chevron and Williams
17:48 - Gold and silver as asymmetrical bull trades — monetary vs commercial case
19:31 - The mortgage roundtable in Washington — volumes are going to fall
20:00 - MBA projects 0.6% home price growth — flat to slightly down
23:39 - "Do you think we've seen a peak in home prices?" — "Yes"
24:43 - Misery on the eights — prolonged period of low or no price appreciation
26:18 - Why Whalen changed his view — supply still hasn't caught up 28:00 - Viewer Mail: Oil producer stocks — should you take profits?
29:20 - Viewer Mail: Tokenization of stocks and ETFs
32:05 - What Whalen is watching next week

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, joins Julia to sound the alarm on a U.S. economy she believes is being misread, misreported, and mismanaged. From growing divisions inside the FOMC to deeply troubling labor market signals — including an ISM non-manufacturing employment reading of 45.2 last seen during the Great Recession — Danielle lays out why she believes the Fed is falling dangerously behind. She breaks down the private credit contagion risk, why only 25% of unemployed Americans are collecting benefits, and how student loan repayments, rising gas prices, and tightening lending standards are quietly crushing working families. With a midterm election on the horizon and consumer sentiment crumbling across all income levels, Danielle argues the stakes have never been higher — and that someone needs to start speaking up for everyday Americans.

Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth
01:00 FOMC minutes: Even more division inside the Fed
4:47 – What happens if no Fed chair gets confirmed?
7:19 – Is the Fed ignoring everyday Americans?
8:51 – ISM data parallels to 2001, 2007, and the Great Recession
10:53 – Job insecurity hitting ALL income levels
15:26 – Stagflation or just stagnation? Danielle breaks it down
16:38 – Are we headed for a policy error? Private credit warning
18:18 – The 10-year Treasury, Iran, and the liquidity threat
20:48 – Private credit contagion: What's not getting enough attention
23:16 – Buy Now, Pay Later and gig workers getting crushed
25:42 – Only 25% of unemployed Americans are collecting benefits
27:23 – The Fed knows the data is broken — so why won't they say it?
28:35 – April FOMC: Rate cuts off the table?
29:34 – Danielle on who she's fighting for
30:31 – What investors don't understand about the real cost of living
31:58 – Parting thoughts: Spread kindness

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update. Despite clear deterioration in the labor market — where he argues real unemployment is closer to 5.4% than the reported 4.3% — Henrik is not calling a market top yet. In fact, he sees a 30%+ rally still ahead in the Nasdaq, echoing the 25% surge in mid-2007 and the 45% explosion in 2000, both of which happened right before everything fell apart. He breaks down why the Fed is repeating the exact same mistake as 2007, why PMI numbers are widely misunderstood, and why private credit is the new subprime — only this time the dominoes are lined up in a dark room and nobody knows who's exposed to what. He also shares his current positioning and his outlook for gold and silver.

Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/
Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201
TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro and welcome back Henrik
1:23 - Macro view: economy slower than expected, the jobs reality
3:46 - Why Henrik doesn't trust the jobs numbers
8:44 - Why PMI is one of the most misunderstood indicators 1
0:21 - What's keeping the market propped up
11:00 - Consumer delinquencies and private credit cracks
13:26 - The final blow-off rally: are we still in it?
16:36 - The 2000 and 2007 parallels: Nasdaq surges right before the crash
8:15 - "We have not seen the top" — 30%+ rally still ahead
20:29 - Is Henrik buying the dip right now?
25:30 - The Titanic
28:46 - The Fed making the same mistake as 2007
34:09 - Private credit: the new subprime
38:27 - Why the next crisis will be harder to backstop than 2008
40:47 - The greatest Fed policy mistake in history
44:16 - What the Fed should have done
46:29 - 2007 flashback: 125 basis points in a single month
48:46 - The Zeberg Business Cycle Model explained
53:59 - Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here
56:12 - Henrik's current positioning: fully risk-on
57:27 - Parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says this selloff is worse than Liberation Day because it's real economic dislocation — not just a market surprise — driven by the Iran war's devastating knock-on effects on energy, chemicals and global supply chains. He says the Fed should do nothing, because this inflation is caused by war not monetary policy and central banks can't fix a sulfur shortage. But he warns QE is coming anyway — "the question is not if, but when" — because Congress refuses to deal with the deficit and the Fed will eventually be forced to monetize the debt. He's been cutting market exposure, raising cash, and buying physical metals on the dip. On private credit he sees a slow-motion trainwreck with a Lehman moment still possible, and says Washington is going to make it worse by ignoring it.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris
01:00 - The Fed should do nothing — you can't fight war inflation with rate hikes
2:39 - Why this inflation is fundamentally different from 2021
3:03 - Powell got it wrong on QE — and Trump totally mishandled the situation
4:12 - The rationale for doing nothing — the dual mandate is the problem
5:12 - Jobs report — 178,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%
8:02 - M2 is expanding — this economy keeps going regardless of policymakers
9:01 - Are we headed for a recession?
10:06 - The John Dizard interview — diesel is the real key to the global economy
12:54 - Even if the war ends tomorrow — damage will take months or years to fix
20:00 - Whalen has been cutting market exposure and raising cash
20:28 - Is this worse than Liberation Day? "I think it is — much more significant"
21:29 - Why gold and silver sold off — Gulf states raising cash
22:41 - What's behind the dollar rebound
23:28 - QE is coming — "not if, but when"
25:09 - Viewer Mail: Second and third order impacts of the oil surge on liquidity
26:47 - Viewer Mail: Can private credit break all at once?
28:16 - Viewer Mail: Should I lock my mortgage rate now?
29:05 - Viewer Mail: Rising long-term rates and Annaly — what am I missing?
30:31 - Viewer Mail: What can Treasury do to help private credit?
32:06 - Is it too late to do anything about private credit?
34:07 - What Whalen is watching next week — credit, Treasury market, mortgage rates

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins The Julia La Roche Show in-studio for a wide-ranging conversation on why the world most investors grew up in is over. Johnson argues that power now matters more than economics — that the old framework of spreadsheets and cash flows is no longer sufficient when supply chains, national security, and geopolitical competition determine outcomes. He breaks down the US-China power competition, the implications of the Iran conflict for energy, food prices, and portfolios, and why he remains in US equities despite the consensus rotation into emerging markets. He also updates his Dollar Milkshake Theory, makes a provocative case that what comes after the American Republic is the American Empire, and explains why stablecoins may be the most underappreciated geopolitical tool the US has right now.

Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod
Substack: https://research.santiagocapital.com/

0:00 Intro & welcome Brent Johnson
1:05 Current macro picture: the world has changed & power matters more than economics
4:37 Signposts reinforcing the thesis — Trump as symptom, not cause
5:42 What the paradigm shift means for investors — the law of one price is gone
8:25 The high angst/low drawdown paradox — markets only down 10% but everyone's acting like it's 30%
9:43 Conviction vs. confliction — investing for what will happen vs. what you want to happen
13:23 Iran: thinking through the probabilities without the certainty
16:27 The US is still the most powerful country in the world — what that means for portfolios
18:01 Portfolio implications of the Iran scenarios — energy, food prices, the Strait of Hormuz
21:23 It's all about US-China — the prisoner exchange and the technology race
29:16 Where Brent is putting money right now — capital preservation, cash, gold, US equities
31:12 Why he's NOT rotating into emerging markets — the four scenarios framework
34:09 The Dollar Milkshake Theory explained — and how it's held up in 2025-26
39:29 Stablecoins: what Brent got wrong and why they matter more than he thought
46:26 CBDCs vs stablecoins — and the coming conflict between the Fed and the Treasury
50:05 The Fed: cut, hike or hold?
52:48 Japan: the yen trap, JGBs, and why it matters for everyone
54:46 What question nobody asks Brent but should
56:33 What keeps him up at night and what makes him optimistic
57:44 The Roman Republic vs the Roman Empire — is America heading toward empire not collapse
1:01:40 Parting thoughts: find a community of people you trust who disagree with you