The Julia La Roche Show

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links
X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton
Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx
Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry
0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs
4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?
11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"
18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money
20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy
24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict
28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?
34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next
39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"
47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets
51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work

Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.
Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Website: https://dampedspring.com/
X: https://x.com/dampedspring
Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan
00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning
02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation
05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations
12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom
13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again?
17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks
18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta
21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds
24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again
29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo
31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession
32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed
36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation
38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation
41:37 What's mispriced right now
43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle
48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23
53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
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Timestamps:
0:00 – Preview
0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap
1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%
2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal
3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry
4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end
5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk
6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system
7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals
8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis
9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world
11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis
14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock
15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"
16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut
21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy
23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?
24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security
27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries
29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?
30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies
31:25 – Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"
0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento
0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers
4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind
8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals
10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit
14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business
15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027
20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary
21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals
23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?
24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"
25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession
28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio
33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"
34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)
39:19 Is there hope on the other side?
42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates
43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"
46:28 How to follow Michael Pento

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79
Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%
2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"
5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one
8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market
11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy
12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy
13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England
16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market
20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior
21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets
22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity
23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market
28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings
30:25 The housing correction is already happening
31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"
35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like
38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks
39:17 Closing thoughts