The Julia La Roche Show

Chris Whalen kicks off the July 4th episode of The Wrap by diving into private credit implosion with BDCs turning unprofitable, using the acronym POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to illustrate how debt is being converted to equity because companies can't pay—essentially turning investors into equity holders in insolvent companies. The June jobs report shocked with only 57K payrolls added (far below expectations) while household employment actually fell by 500K, making the data contradictory and unreliable despite the overall labor market still showing relative steadiness in many markets. Housing shows sharp bifurcation: sales above $1 million hit a record high while overall volume is down, revealing that only luxury properties are moving as the broader market softens. Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900, and Whalen is holding silver as a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, noting the Chinese are aggressively buying silver in both futures and spot markets. Trump has profited handsomely from his various crypto ventures while most investors in those same ventures have lost significant money—a familiar pattern from Trump's business history. With the US national debt now at $39.35 trillion on America's 250th birthday, Whalen warns the Democratic Party will split between socialists and Republicans, with policies like New York's rent freezing turning cities into slums while hurting mom-and-pop landlords. He recommends watching interest rates, the Fed under Kevin Warsh, and expects another uptick in gold and silver prices after recent selloffs, while cautioning on BDCs and private credit exposure as the distress signals mount.

Thank you to today's episode sponsor, The Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini. Order your copy: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro and World Cup chat
1:09 Gold rebounds, AI stocks slump
1:38 Private credit - BDCs turning unprofitable
2:40 POOP acronym - Principal on Outstanding Principal, crap debt
4:07 POOP emoji Bloomberg article, Victor Hong invented term
5:54 AI stocks slumping, pressure on private credit portfolios
6:00 Market doesn't like it right now
11:23 June non-farm payrolls - 57K added, much worse than expected
11:44 May/June comparisons all over place, household employment down 500K
12:21 Can't take a lot out of these numbers
13:33 Labor market steady to extent we can rely on statistics
14:12 Housing costs up, Americans work harder to compensate
14:12 Goldman Sachs says gold could hit $4,900
15:31 Chinese aggressive buyers of silver, not changing view
16:06 Gold/silver hedge against dollar and inflation
17:40 US national debt at $39.35 trillion on country's birthday
18:12 Democratic Party gonna get torn in half
18:50 Rise of democratic socialist candidates
19:49 Rent freezing turning NYC into slum, mom and pop landlords hurt
20:17 How much money to live in NYC reasonably? Way more than poverty level
21:45 Trump crypto - Done well, investors lost a lot
23:32 Book - Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini
29:33 90% of mortgage market government insured, no systemic bailout needed
32:43 Silver good play medium to long term as hedge
34:13 Back half of year focused on interest rates
35:13 Watching Fed, Kevin Warsh, uptick in gold/silver coming

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/
Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201
TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock
01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted
01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over
03:50 – The split between the "financial economy" and the "real economy"
04:42 – His "structural recession call" — what it means and what's still missing
05:25 – Kalshi's recession odds (10.4%) vs. what Henrik's model is showing
06:25 – Why almost nobody sees a recession coming until it's already here
07:06 – Breaking down GDP: why the consumer (70%) is the real signal to watch
09:58 – Labor market red flags: falling participation, part-time vs. full-time jobs, long-term unemployment
12:33 – The "avalanche" analogy — how a slow buildup becomes a sudden crisis
14:59 – Credit card delinquencies now above 2009 recession levels
16:04 – Why housing is the earliest domino to fall
19:30 – Structural recession call, explained in full — and the two triggers he's waiting on
24:45 – The market's "loud hand": no top yet, more melt-up ahead
27:07 – Risk rotation theory — from mega-caps into small caps and speculative names
29:16 – Why he thinks the inflation narrative is wrong (savings rate argument)
32:57 – Stock vs. flow: the bathtub analogy for inflation vs. price levels
33:28 – What could still push this "blow-off top" rally further
34:32 – His own portfolio moves — how much cash vs. risk he's holding
36:57 – The "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" — his signal for exiting stocks entirely into bonds
39:37 – Bitcoin: why he's bullish on a short-term bounce but bearish long-term
42:23 – Gold outlook tied to a weakening (then re-strengthening) dollar
43:43 – Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+
44:56 – One-year-out contrarian calls: AI bubble bursting, Bitcoin under $20K, recession confirmed
47:06 – Where to find Henrik's work
47:25 – Parting thoughts: don't trust a crowded consensus trade

Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO of the Market Timing Report, joins the show for his debut to explain his framework of mathematical cycles—repeating patterns spanning 36, 60, 90, 100, 144, and 250 years that he uses to forecast turning points across markets, commodities, and geopolitics. He argues we're broadly tracking the 1920s bull market toward a potential 2029 peak, but warns he's turned more bearish near-term after Friday's data showed smart money leaving US equities, eyeing the third week of July as a major turning point. Pancholi shares striking targets—$183 oil if Middle East conflict escalates, $6,900 gold by March 2027, and a continued bearish view on Bitcoin—while tying current events to historical cycles, including the 36-year anniversary of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the US 250-year empire cycle. A commercial Boeing 777 pilot, he closes by connecting aviation's risk management and situational awareness to disciplined trading, emphasizing incremental gains over any "holy grail."

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
x.com/AndrewPancholilinkedin.com/in/andrewpancholi
youtube.com/@markettimingreport
instagram.com/andrew.pancholi
facebook.com/markettimingcyclesanalysis

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro: who is Andrew Pancholi
01:21 – The big picture: mathematical cycles framework
02:00 – The 100-year cycle & path to 20290
2:30 – 90-year geopolitical cycle & polarization
05:29 – Equity markets: top or pullback?
08:21 – Smart money leaving US equities
10:43 – Kalshi prediction markets & 7,800 S&P target
13:15 – Third week of July turning point explained
14:12 – Charts: how the timing system works
20:17 – "You can't time the market" — the pushback
24:39 – The cycles explained: 30, 36, 45, 90, 144, 250 years
27:40 – War & revolution cycles, US civil strife
28:48 – The major war cycle nobody's talking about
31:41 – Oil outlook: $183 target
33:35 – Gold: bearish near-term, $6,900 target
35:12 – Bitcoin outlook
35:48 – The 250-year empire cycle & America's birthday
40:03 – Zero Hour book & cycles that failed
42:28 – From Boeing 777 pilot to cycles analyst
43:51 – COVID pandemic forecasted by the 100-year cycle
46:04 – Risk management lessons from flying
51:35 – Parting thoughts & where to find his work

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares.
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861
Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860
Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shop
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions
02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz
04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax
05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans
06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights
07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans
08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage
11:55 — The private credit gates connection
12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines
14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults
15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained
15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)
17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips
17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit
18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility
19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation
20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 57
22:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case
23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling
24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)
25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take
26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation
28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?
29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred
31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)
32:46 — Wrap-up

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.

Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://x.com/PeterGrandich
https://petergrandich.com/
https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Timestamps:
00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich
01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"
06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide
10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different
12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"
13:11 — Taxes
17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading
20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy
22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?
25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture
28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails
30:40 — Gold
32:00 — Spend less than you make
33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market
34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk
38:38 — The craps table metaphor
41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"