The Julia La Roche Show

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing
2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers
4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?
5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher
6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas
7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials
8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction
9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater
10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026
12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts
14:15 How lenders are feeling right now
15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000
16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms
18:05 You pay for it after the election
18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?
21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?
22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments
26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy
27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?
28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means
32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate
33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate
35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.

More about Rickards:
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links:  
http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/
https://x.com/RealJimRickards

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro
2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first
5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025
6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins
8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles
9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos?
11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch
13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained
15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns
17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980)
18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy
19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative
21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No)
23:15 What triggers a financial panic
24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money"
26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from
28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market
30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto
33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem
35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving
37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences
42:26 Gold does well in deflation too
45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009)
49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher
51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700%
55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier
56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule
58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input
63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO
67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule
0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think
3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming"
4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung
5:16 What's driving the gold price
6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth
9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default
11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation
13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable)
15:29 Where could gold go from here
16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market
18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian?
19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver
20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities
21:57 Rick's investment memo framework
24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity
26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation
29:52 The New York City socialist experiment
33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons
37:34 Innovation as the way out
38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to"
42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve
44:45 What would free market interest rates look like
46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating
49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption
54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense"
55:09 Battle Bank update
58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."

In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen
0:30 GSE release officially off the table?
2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics
4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections
4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart
5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver
6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30
Gold vs. silver as long-term trades
9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator
10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis
12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall?
14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways
16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs
18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit
19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending
21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb
22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena
24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed
27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases?
28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT
30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook
31:46 Closing

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:
Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar
01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets
03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness
05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster
06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak
07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows
08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth
09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well
11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples
12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows
13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase
14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity
15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian
15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed
16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays
17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now
17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds
18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum
19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT
23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term
25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning
27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%
28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed
29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena
30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June
31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%
32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves
35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did
36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather
37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs
38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven
40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds
40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine
42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies
42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia
43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates
44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs
45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking