The Julia La Roche Show

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 — Intro
1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal
3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now
4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs
5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn
7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next
8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to
9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit
11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing
12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end
17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell
18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury
21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 49
23:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?
25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish
27:42 — What the bond market is signaling
29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in
31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start
33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book
34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk
36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners
37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"
0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only
1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?
4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold
6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028
8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical
9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001
10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently
13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?
15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations
16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?
18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending
20:51 - Common shares or preferred?
21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation
23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?
25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency
27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT
28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review
30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping

Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Gold/silver discussion
02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600
03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar
05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks
07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months
10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next
12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends
15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling
19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade
22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis
23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here
26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer
29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery
31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market
35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance
37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel
40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain

In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan
0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A)
1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation?
4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR?
5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates?
6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up?
9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean?
12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals
13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year?
15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives
16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be?
18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze
21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year
23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week

Economic forecaster and bestselling author Harry Dent makes his debut on the show with one of the most aggressive bearish calls we've hosted. Dent — who built his reputation forecasting the 1980s–2000s boom and Dow 10,000 when almost nobody believed it — walks through the three long-term cycles he uses to map the economy decades ahead: the 39-year generational spending wave, the 45- and 90-year technology innovation cycles, and a geopolitical cycle. His conclusion is that the downturn that should have arrived in 2008 was smothered by roughly $31 trillion in stimulus, creating a bubble that now spans stocks, real estate, and even gold. He lays out what a full reversion looks like — a first-wave crash he thinks could be visible by October, housing down 60% in the middle of the country and more at the high end, and a path back toward the 2009 lows for equities — and explains why he believes long-dated Treasuries, not gold, are the only real safe haven. Dent also makes the case that the bust is not the enemy: it's where innovation and affordability come from, and where the millennial generation finally gets its shot. Looking past the washout, he sees India and Southeast Asia as the growth engines of the next four decades, China as structurally finished, and US tech as the thing to buy when it's on sale.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
https://hsdent.com/hs-dent-forecast/

00:00 – Intro: Harry Dent makes his debut
00:59 – How demographics became his life's work
03:23 – The 45- and 90-year cycles that create bubbles
04:15 – Calling the 2007 top back in the 1980s
08:07 – AI is in its infancy — and that's when the biggest crashes happen
09:00 – India is the next China
10:28 – 2008 was 1930 all over again — and $31 trillion papered over it
13:08 – Anatomy of the everything bubble
14:30 – The average Ohio house down 60%. High-end down 70–80%
16:47 – The millennials who got priced out are the ones who win
19:12 – How far stocks fall: 90% on the S&P, 96% on the Nasdaq
22:20 – The first wave: 42% in 2.6 months
24:38 – "I was the most bullish forecaster on earth"
25:40 – Positioning for the first crash: SQQQ and sizing
27:06 – Why TLT and the 30-year Treasury are the trade after that
31:08 – The case against gold: it joined the everything bubble
34:21 – Which house should you sell? Not the one you think
39:15 – China's 22% empty real estate and the coming reckoning
45:00 – Nobody in a bubble sees the bubble because they're high on it
48:55 – Watch October