The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro and welcome
00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites
2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks
3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)
5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds
9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"
10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices
12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"
14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?
15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet
16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day
17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild
21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high
23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs
27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)
29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread
31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?
32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns
0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P
2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions
3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility
4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months
5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside
6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction
8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high
9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries
11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk
12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices
13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows
14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months
16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR
19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding
21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move
22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it
24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom
26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high
27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO)
29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks
32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs
33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to lay out why he believes markets are entering a major regime shift. He points to a historic rotation out of mega-cap tech — roughly $2 trillion has already exited the "Mag 7" since October — as sophisticated institutional investors grow wary of unsustainable AI/data-center capital expenditures and the off-balance-sheet financing propping them up. McDonald warns of a coming credit crisis driven by private credit weakness and commercial real estate stress, while arguing that Washington's stablecoin push and "financial repression" tactics are being used to force more Treasury buying and inflate away the $39 trillion national debt. With sticky inflation, midterm election risk, and a volatile August-September seasonal pattern ahead, he's positioning in hard assets — gold (targeting $6,500), silver, natural gas, and select energy names — as the trade of the next several years, while sounding the alarm on an S&P 500 he calls dangerously concentrated in tech.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 – Intro & welcome back
01:11 – Big picture macro setup: bullish-to-bearish rotation among top institutional investors
02:19 – "Under the seat cushions" — what's really going on beneath bank earnings
04:55 – The AI/data center malinvestment cycle & Mag 7 outflows
05:57 – Economic outlook, Druckenmiller's rule, Trump/Middle East risk
08:10 – Recession odds & consumer divergence (Home Depot, Pepsi, Costco)
10:34 – Why the midterms matter for investors
12:53 – Passive investing, S&P concentration, fiduciary "reconstruction"
15:07 – Energy sector picks (Occidental, Schlumberger, XLE)
16:23 – Treasury market "control" — stablecoins, Clarity Act
19:00 – "Bessent's bag of tricks" & debt dynamics
20:33 – Fiscal dominance explained (Lehman vs. post-2020 response)
23:02 – 3% inflation target implications, growth-to-value rotation
25:08 – Hard asset thesis: Bitcoin, natural gas, precious metals
29:21 – Gold outlook & the "hot money flush"
33:14 – Gold price target: $6,500
33:46 – Biggest risks: data center debt, private credit, commercial real estate
37:28 – Kevin Warsh's Fed approach & yield curve control prediction
40:30 – What to watch in H2: seasonality, volatility, August/September risk
42:52 – Closing

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1
Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike
1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day
2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility
3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone
4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance
5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation
7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical
11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace
13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz
14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply
15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment
16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies
16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy
17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics
18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story
20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high)
20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior
21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing
22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term
23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator
24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment
25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done
26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems
29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival
31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow

Danielle DiMartino Booth praises the FOMC minutes as "clean" under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no manipulation of data like Janet Yellen did in 2013—and notes Warsh has successfully convened consensus around "less is more" Fed communications with an unusually quiet media environment. The real bombshell is the July jobs data: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% only because 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in a single month, representing a 50-year low in labor force participation since 1976, while 49% of adults under 30 now live with their parents as affordability collapses and job insecurity rises. Danielle warns the official narrative of economic strength masks a deteriorating real economy: revolving credit declined (a sign lenders are tightening), consumer confidence shows jobs are hard to get, and vacation spending has crashed to Great Recession levels—yet mainstream media remains fixated on an inflation narrative unsupported by broad data. The biggest systemic risk is the "too big to fail" stock market: 51% of global assets now sit outside the regulated banking system, asset managers hold assets larger than major banks, and the government can't allow equity market collapse when 401(k)s are the only retirement plans left, implying inevitable Fed monetization and the "end of capitalism." Her source of hope: summer interns aged 18-28 who are hungry, hardworking, and reject the "too big to fail" mentality—representing a generation determined to work their way out rather than accept billionaire UBI schemes designed to maintain inequality.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth
00:40 FOMC minutes from June - Clean, Warsh didn't manipulate data
1:30 Warsh convened consensus, less is more communications working
2:57 Forward guidance removal, Fed less visible, refreshingly quiet
3:20 Elizabeth Warren defends bloated 12 district banks, Waller calling it out
4:38 Warsh has convened consensus around leadership position
5:13 Warsh refuses forward guidance, hints at ending dot plot
6:23 Inflation cooling seen but Iran hostilities change calculus
6:59 No press conference if nothing to say - Hail Mary move
7:25 Mervyn King taking communications, five task forces with outsiders
8:49 Kalshi traders: 79% hold rates in July, 76% expect no cuts 2026
9:36 Labor force participation 50-year low since 1976
15:35 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in one month
16:05 Unemployment fell to 4.2% but for wrong reasons
16:59 Full-time jobs destroyed, replaced by gig workers
17:36 Labor market called stable but disconnect with data
18:18 Jobs hard to get at highest level, Americans aware
19:30 Revolving credit down, unusual sign of lender tightening
20:20 49% of adults under 30 living with parents
21:12 Five of 20 K-Shiller metro areas below 2000 price levels
22:35 Young people disenfranchised, AI destroying college degree value
24:32 Stock market too big to fail - implies Fed buying equities
25:01 Inequality gap - bottom 10% stock holdings fell 3% to 1%
26:14 Top 0.1% holdings doubled, bottom K getting bigger
26:33 Worry about social fabric fraying with K-shaped economy
29:16 Billionaires pushing UBI while controlling AI benefits
30:14 Work ethic is what made America great
30:30 Writing piece on too big to fail for weekly flagship
32:08 51% of global assets outside regulated banking system
33:34 Summer interns give hope - bright, hungry, great work ethic
34:45 Young generation rejects too big to fail narrative