The Julia La Roche Show

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.

Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://x.com/PeterGrandich
https://petergrandich.com/
https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Timestamps:
00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich
01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"
06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide
10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different
12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"
13:11 — Taxes
17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading
20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy
22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?
25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture
28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails
30:40 — Gold
32:00 — Spend less than you make
33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market
34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk
38:38 — The craps table metaphor
41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"

Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiffhttps://www.youtube.com/@peterschiff

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff
00:50 Air coming out of bubble
1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks
1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad
3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it
5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk
5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6%
7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44%
8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year
9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced
10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it
11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation
13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually
19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 160
20:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast
21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries
24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis
24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable
27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal
29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $200
32:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden
36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth
39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency
40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish
43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold
44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next
45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots
3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much
5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike
6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control
7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed
9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate
10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels
11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX
12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play
13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin
15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions
17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand
17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally
19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues
21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple
22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation
23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them
24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees
26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults
29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets
30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying
31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question
32:07 Next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10.⁠ http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
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Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth
1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"
2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"
3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"
5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks
7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary
14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero
16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff
17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%
19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 2025
24:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"
26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak
27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic
29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal
30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Opening and introduction
1:23 Market assessment
2:40 IPOs
3:49 Late stage market indicators
7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%
8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure
8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing
11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market
12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings
18:54 Energy thesis
21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries
28:30 Bifurcated economy
29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested
32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time
37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in
39:53 Private credit issue
42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table
44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles