The Julia La Roche Show

On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade.

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Links:    
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent”
0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction
0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent
2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold
3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative”
5:14 An unsatisfying press conference
6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO
7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill
8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession?
8:47 What jobless claims are missing
12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot
13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip
13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut
14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed
15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick
17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI
18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI
18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit
19:55 Wrap-up

Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there.
Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps:

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Axel Merk
1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”
3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms
5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war
7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?
9:50 The four types of gold buyers
12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed
15:16 What Fed independence really means
17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player
20:24 What it’s like in the room
21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?
24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed
27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism
29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge
31:18 Hike or hold this week?
33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk
36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners
39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
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Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome to The Wrap
1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump”
3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder
5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud
7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25%
09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing?
10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell
13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy
14:19 Annaly back to book value
15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries
19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds
20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash
22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold?
23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high
24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials
26:43 How income investing works
28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about
32:00 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs
Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/
Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce
0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser
1:15 The only macro that matters: AI
4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 2007
6:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive
10:07 How big is agentic commerce?
10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise
12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis
14:01 An agentic run on the banks
17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you
18:56 The generational divide on AI
24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman
26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions”
28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity
31:04 What he tells his kids about AI
32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade
35:43 All moats are disappearing
37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people
41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero
43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative
45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley
48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity
50:00 The bull case: agentic compute
52:30 Is the AI debt a problem?
55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback
58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto
1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now
1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects
Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/
X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Protect your capital
0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg
1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy
6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect
10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium
13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts
18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008
23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds
26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?
31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went
36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived
37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern
41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair
42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown
45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations
50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk
53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve
54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure
1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown
1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave
1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries
1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.