The Julia La Roche Show

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year.

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:  
BiancoResearch.com  
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch

Timestamps
0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds
0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco
1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years
3:25 What would make him bullish
4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields
6:54 How high would yields have to go?
7:23 The biggest risk: inflation
11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice
12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in
14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky
15:16 Get used to 3% inflation
17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins?
21:16 What it means for markets
22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI
25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers
27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents
29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity
31:28 Is AI a bubble?
33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh
35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility?
38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine
40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year
42:33 Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
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Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome to The Wrap
1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics?
3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding?
4:38 Midterm predictions
6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed?
7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen
9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era?
12:02 What people are missing about Warsh
13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators
16:41 What it means for annuity holders
17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem
18:37 Are the banks exposed?
19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae
22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM?
25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit
27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory?
29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock
31:03 What to watch after the midterms

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:    
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent”
0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction
0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent
2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold
3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative”
5:14 An unsatisfying press conference
6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO
7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill
8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession?
8:47 What jobless claims are missing
12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot
13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip
13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut
14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed
15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick
17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI
18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI
18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit
19:55 Wrap-up

Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there.
Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps:

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Axel Merk
1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”
3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms
5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war
7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?
9:50 The four types of gold buyers
12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed
15:16 What Fed independence really means
17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player
20:24 What it’s like in the room
21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?
24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed
27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism
29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge
31:18 Hike or hold this week?
33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk
36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners
39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
⁠
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome to The Wrap
1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump”
3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder
5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud
7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25%
09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing?
10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell
13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy
14:19 Annaly back to book value
15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries
19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds
20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash
22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold?
23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high
24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials
26:43 How income investing works
28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about
32:00 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.