The Julia La Roche Show

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
⁠
Timestamps:
0:00 – Preview
0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap
1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%
2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal
3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry
4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end
5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk
6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system
7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals
8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis
9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world
11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis
14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock
15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"
16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut
21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy
23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?
24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security
27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries
29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?
30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies
31:25 – Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"
0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento
0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers
4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind
8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals
10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit
14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business
15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027
20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary
21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals
23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?
24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"
25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession
28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio
33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"
34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)
39:19 Is there hope on the other side?
42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates
43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"
46:28 How to follow Michael Pento

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79
Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%
2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"
5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one
8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market
11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy
12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy
13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England
16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market
20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior
21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets
22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity
23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market
28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings
30:25 The housing correction is already happening
31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"
35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like
38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks
39:17 Closing thoughts

Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 – Welcome back
1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant"
5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore?
5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail
6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt
6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress
9:39 – The age of uncertainty
10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year
11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028
11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb
11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast
13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling
14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works
15:28 – Energy
16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership
17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter
18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again
20:34 – The AI trade
21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative?
21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock
22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio
23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks
24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed
27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms?
28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call?
29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills
30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year
31:37 – Close

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:    
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway
1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference
4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge
5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment
7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals
8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory
10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"
10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken
11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence
12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned
13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge
14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals
15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down
16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished
17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman
17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time
18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips
20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes
20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings
22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening
23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K
25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?
25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism
27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus
28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment
29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E
31:40 What's making her optimistic
33:25 Wrap-up