The Julia La Roche Show

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.

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Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house
0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup
1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions
3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees
4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk
5:59 How many people truly understand this risk?
6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one
9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained
11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all?
12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out?
13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business
15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry?
16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms
16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality
18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act
20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House?
22:42 Trump administration's communication problems
23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028
24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel
27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction
28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III
30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years
32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55
The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines
36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions
37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.

Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth
0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes
1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect
3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing
5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side?
7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors
8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills
9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay
11:00 A revolt against the system?
12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters
13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight"
14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies
16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do?
17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs
18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed
18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse?
20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings?
21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles?
24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market?
25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows
27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley
1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October
2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers
4:05 Why second years are difficult
5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns
6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries
8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years
9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt?
11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years
12:03 What's the end game?
13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets
14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits
16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long
18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold
19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets
21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market?
23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels
25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet
27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing
29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market?
31:09 The thesis on oil
33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction
34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking
34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today?
36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash?
38:25 Takeaway for investors this year
39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform
41:05 Prediction for a year from now
42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November
1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger?
4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you?
6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety
7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?
8:30 The link between crypto and AI
11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives
11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US?
13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech
14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth?
17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing
19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues?
21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open
23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet?
24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle
26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income
28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar
31:58 Viewer mail
34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility
35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.

Links:
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/
https://x.com/WarrenPies

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies
1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime
3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down
5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance
12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument
16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued
17:26 Markets at record highs
18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface
22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs
30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals
30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted
37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed
45:22 10-year
49:53 The economy
53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts