The Julia La Roche Show

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.
Links: https://web.gavekal.com/
https://x.com/gave_vincent
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for.

Links:  
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KT
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

00:00 Introduction
00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage
01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent
03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time
05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now
07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed
10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in
12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing
15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil?
16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher
17:56 Global recession risk
19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan
20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now
24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House
26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in
28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy
29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war
31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz?
33:00 The Houthis playbook
35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out
37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth
39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil
40:42 When will markets wake up?
43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change
45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now
47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US?
49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road
52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out
55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm
58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI
01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   
Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen
00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years
02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right?
05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months
06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out"
09:08 -Goldco
10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave?
13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now
16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you
18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March
19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be?
22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"
23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals
26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame
27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel
30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?
31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?
33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried?
35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system?
36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen
0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank
3:51 The insurance company play
5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk
6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken
8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff
9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026
10:12 Banks discussion
14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last
16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market
20:34 Tariffs
21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now
22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters
26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters
27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset
29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week
31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is.

Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap
Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein
1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused"
4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market
5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible
7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath
10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid
12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates
15:16 Short selling
18:23 Bill's positioning
19:21 Gold at $5,100
24:18 Silver
30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way
36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion?
37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing
40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed?
41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed
42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory
44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
45:37 Yield curve control is coming
49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position
51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid
54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com