The Julia La Roche Show

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.
Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.
His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.
Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.
Links:
Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/
Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/
Timestamps
0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"  
0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky
1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran?
4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers
6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time
9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth
14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp
18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever
19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM
21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance
24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer
25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash
32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"?
36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity
38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift
41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation
42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement
43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities
44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities
47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   
Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction and welcome
0:52 - Consumer credit
3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit
4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed
7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure
9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't.
11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you
13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it
13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will
15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying
16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle
19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why
20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently?
21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency"
23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary
25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years"
26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession
27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story
29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms
30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release
31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction
33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income
35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip
37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week

Peter Schiff, chief economist at Europacific Asset Management, makes the case that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the 1970s stagflation era, pointing to a $39 trillion national debt, accelerating inflation, a weakening labor market, and a new war that will drive deficits even higher. He argues the Fed is trapped — raising rates aggressively would trigger a financial collapse worse than 2008, so instead inflation will spiral into double or even triple digits, producing what he calls an "inflationary depression." Schiff sees gold, silver, and foreign stocks as the plays of the decade, warns that crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," and predicts a dollar and sovereign debt crisis that could begin overnight in China's time zone. He closes with cautious optimism that the coming crisis could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a return to free-market principles.
Links
https://x.com/PeterSchiff
Europac.com
http://SchiffGold.com

Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro & inflation going to double digits teaser 0:32 – Guest intro: Peter Schiff, Europacific Asset Management 0:45 – Why today's economy is worse than the 1970s 1:13 – National debt: $39 trillion and exploding 2:03 – Recession risk, war costs & path to $50T debt 2:53 – Why the Fed can't do what Volcker did in 1980 3:37 – Labor market reality vs. Trump's "greatest economy" claims 4:11 – GDP numbers: 2025 vs. 2024 compared 4:46 – Producer price inflation spiking — leading indicator 6:01 – Stagflation or something worse? "Inflationary depression" 6:44 – Why unemployment & inflation are understated vs. the 70s 8:05 – The Fed's impossible position: rock and a hard place 8:56 – What the Fed should do — and why it won't 9:23 – Inflation into double digits, possibly triple digits 10:13 – The short-term pain we need but won't take 12:02 – Why this will be worse than 2008 12:31 – A dollar crisis and sovereign debt crisis instead 13:27 – What the Fed should actually do right now 14:18 – Stocks vs. gold: the Dow in real terms 15:15 – Gold's run to $5,500 and today's selloff explained 16:29 – Why rate cut timing misses the point — real rates matter 17:19 – Housing market: most overpriced ever, 30–40% decline needed 21:44 – Dollar crisis: what is the biggest threat to the dollar? 22:05 – How the war is affecting the dollar short-term 23:10 – Tariffs, Greenland, and losing global credibility 25:27 – Could Trump succeed on foreign policy?27:08 – How has the war changed Schiff's investing strategy? 27:21 – Energy stocks, gold miners & the opportunity right now 28:54 – Gold, silver & mining stocks — where to buy 31:10 – Parallels to the 2008 pre-crisis gold and dollar moves 32:18 – How a dollar crisis unfolds — what to watch for 34:17 – Money rotating out of the US into foreign markets 35:15 – Early innings on the rotation? Is this a new regime? 36:08 – Retail investors in crypto instead of gold — a big mistake 38:25 – Does Schiff have a gold price target? 38:36 – The Fed, the dollar, and gold since 1913 41:47 – 2028 prediction: Democrats win and make it worse 45:04 – Democrats will run against capitalism — and win 46:15 – What is Trump's economic endgame? 52:52 – Biggest risk & reason for hope 58:38 – Wrap-up & closing

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   
Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit
4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about
7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now
8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not?
8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language
11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis?
13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil?
16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year
17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington?
19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked?
20:30 - Trump's economic endgame  
23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways?
25:57 - Banks
28:12 - Viewer mail
35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.
Links: https://web.gavekal.com/
https://x.com/gave_vincent
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch