#314 Chris Whalen: The Case For Kevin Hassett For Fed Chair, No Crisis On Horizon & Why Rate Cuts Are Coming
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:   The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen   Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/  Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen
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#313 Hugh Hendry On Preparing For The Dawn Of Chaos
Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI
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#312 Dr. Mark Thornton: America's On-Ramp to Hyperinflation and Why It's Still Early in the Bull Market for Gold & Silver
Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist who correctly called the housing bubble, warns that we're living in an everything bubble with a flock of black swans ready to ignite a crisis. From commercial real estate cover-ups to private equity opacity, data center spending without defined returns, and trillions in government debt, Dr. Thornton explains how Fed manipulation and artificial interest rates have created malinvestments across the economy—and why Trump's push for lower rates will only fuel more bubble activity. He breaks down Austrian Business Cycle Theory, why we're on the on-ramp to hyperinflation with 2026 looking turbulent, and makes the case for gold and silver as essential hedges against fiat money depreciation in a world of central bank money printing and currency debasement.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 01:09 Concerns about the macro economy 6:35 Fed manipulation creating vast array of potential swans 12:00 What if inflation ticks up? Long-term government debt and currency depreciation fears 14:50 Living through an everything bubble 18:40 Fed outlook22:30 Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained 28:30 Malinvestment and artificial credit expansion 34:50 Who really benefits from the Fed's policies? 44:50 Inflation to pay off the national debt 46:00 Gold and silver as hedges against fiat money depreciation 52:40 Early on in the precious metals bull market, silver going above $50 is 'the end of the beginning' 1:00:03 Path to hyperinflation 1:07:01 Bitcoin and Austrian School of Economics compatibility 1:10:31 Final thoughts and closing
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#311 Steve Hanke: Money Supply Acceleration Could Reignite Asset Bubbles and Inflation
Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on 311. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaIn this episode, Professor Hanke warns that the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening in December, combined with bank deregulation unlocking $2.6 trillion in lending capacity, could trigger dangerous money supply acceleration and reignite asset bubbles and inflation. He criticizes the Fed for "flying blind" by rejecting the quantity theory of money in favor of a volatile "data-dependent" approach. On recession, Professor Hanke sits "on the fence"—labor weakness justifies rate cuts, but money supply acceleration could prevent any slowdown. He maintains gold will reach $6,000 in this secular bull market.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/13942572600:00 - Intro and welcome back Professor Steve Hanke 1:20 - Big picture: money supply as fuel for the economy 3:30 - Fed ending quantitative tightening in December 6:00 - Yellow lights flashing: potential money supply acceleration, asset price inflation concerns and stock market bubble Fed 8:35 - Fed funds rate cut probability fluctuating wildly 9:36 - Quantity theory of money vs. data-dependent Fed 11:37 - Flying blind by ignoring money supply 21:30 - Making Money Work book discussion 26:15 - Gold consolidating around $4,000, why it's headed to $6,00029:24 - Recession probability: sitting on the fence 30:45 - Labor market weakness vs. money supply acceleration 32:12 - Why rate cut is justified based on labor market 33:13 - Closing
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#310 Larry McDonald: A Credit Crisis Has Already Started 'No Question' And The Great Rotation Ahead That's Creating Opportunities In Beaten Down Stocks
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 310. McDonald warns that a credit crisis has officially started with 16+ "idiosyncratic" events spreading tentacles across markets, while a big disruption is coming in Q1 as $6-8 trillion may leave the NASDAQ 100. But this creates an incredible opportunity for the cheap part of the market as the great rotation from growth to value begins, with coal and natural gas companies offering 15% free cash flow yields while tech giants burn cash in an AI arms race that's destroying their balance sheets. The market has internally crashed with the average S&P stock down 30-40%, but a handful of names are masking the carnage—and Larry reveals where the smart money is rotating.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak" 1:30 Credit bulls turning bearish 3:50 Credit most times leads equities7:12 When does 'idiosyncratic' become systemic? 9:32 Opportunities for great stock buys 13:30 Nvidia 15:03 Dark side of passive investing 20:40 Set up for an incredible rotation from growth to value 22:00 Update on the hard asset thesis, commodity bull market 23:20 AI power trade26:45 Banks buying Credit Default Swaps 29:20 A credit crisis has started 32:00 Parting thoughts
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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