The Julia La Roche Show

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Website: https://www.principles.com/
X: https://x.com/RayDalio
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum
1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971
6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force
7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?
9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits
12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline
16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns
17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929
21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification
22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)
24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%
25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS
29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare
31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict
33:54 Closing

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed.
Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/NickNemo17

Timestamps:
0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War
0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets
1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system
4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar
7:00 Private credit defaults are rising
10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels
11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008
14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"?
17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks
19:33 The insurance connection
26:30 Is your annuity safe?
27:18 Are regulators asleep?
29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage
34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight
39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency
40:58 How credit contagion could spread
46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%?
50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout
53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test
55:23 Where to find Nick

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing
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Timestamps:
0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap
0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high
1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?
2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?
4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted
6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction
7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability
9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry
10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy
11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit
13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)
14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L
17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few
18:34 – Is a recession ahead?
18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period
21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?
23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?
25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money
27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal
29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings
31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary
31:58 – Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.

Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links
X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton
Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx
Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry
0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs
4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?
11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"
18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money
20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy
24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict
28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?
34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next
39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"
47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets
51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work

Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.
Thank you to our partners
Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Website: https://dampedspring.com/
X: https://x.com/dampedspring
Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan
00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning
02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation
05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations
12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom
13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again?
17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks
18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta
21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds
24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again
29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo
31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession
32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed
36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation
38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation
41:37 What's mispriced right now
43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle
48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23
53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.