The Julia La Roche Show

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins The Julia La Roche Show in-studio for a wide-ranging conversation on why the world most investors grew up in is over. Johnson argues that power now matters more than economics — that the old framework of spreadsheets and cash flows is no longer sufficient when supply chains, national security, and geopolitical competition determine outcomes. He breaks down the US-China power competition, the implications of the Iran conflict for energy, food prices, and portfolios, and why he remains in US equities despite the consensus rotation into emerging markets. He also updates his Dollar Milkshake Theory, makes a provocative case that what comes after the American Republic is the American Empire, and explains why stablecoins may be the most underappreciated geopolitical tool the US has right now.

Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod
Substack: https://research.santiagocapital.com/

0:00 Intro & welcome Brent Johnson
1:05 Current macro picture: the world has changed & power matters more than economics
4:37 Signposts reinforcing the thesis — Trump as symptom, not cause
5:42 What the paradigm shift means for investors — the law of one price is gone
8:25 The high angst/low drawdown paradox — markets only down 10% but everyone's acting like it's 30%
9:43 Conviction vs. confliction — investing for what will happen vs. what you want to happen
13:23 Iran: thinking through the probabilities without the certainty
16:27 The US is still the most powerful country in the world — what that means for portfolios
18:01 Portfolio implications of the Iran scenarios — energy, food prices, the Strait of Hormuz
21:23 It's all about US-China — the prisoner exchange and the technology race
29:16 Where Brent is putting money right now — capital preservation, cash, gold, US equities
31:12 Why he's NOT rotating into emerging markets — the four scenarios framework
34:09 The Dollar Milkshake Theory explained — and how it's held up in 2025-26
39:29 Stablecoins: what Brent got wrong and why they matter more than he thought
46:26 CBDCs vs stablecoins — and the coming conflict between the Fed and the Treasury
50:05 The Fed: cut, hike or hold?
52:48 Japan: the yen trap, JGBs, and why it matters for everyone
54:46 What question nobody asks Brent but should
56:33 What keeps him up at night and what makes him optimistic
57:44 The Roman Republic vs the Roman Empire — is America heading toward empire not collapse
1:01:40 Parting thoughts: find a community of people you trust who disagree with you

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode discussing the risks in the markets today. McDonald makes the case that private credit is this cycle's subprime — opaque, over-leveraged, and already cracking — and warns that the retail investors who were sold quarterly liquidity on an inherently illiquid asset class are about to find out the hard way. He also breaks down why stagflation is the defining macro theme of 2026, why the 60/40 portfolio is broken, and why the great migration out of financial assets and into hard assets — energy, copper, gold, and commodities — is only in the second or third inning. Plus: a surprising first-ever Bitcoin buy, why natural gas is his top multi-year trade, and the under-the-radar risk nobody is talking about.

Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak"
1:21 Private credit: is this cycle's subprime already here?
7:30 The Trump off ramp: 2025 vs. 2026 and what's different this time
9:43 Stagflation: sticky energy prices, slowing growth, and the TACO trade
13:14 The Fed's next move — hike or cut?
15:30 The great migration: from financial assets to hard assets
16:58 Mag7 double-digit drawdowns and the rotation playing out now
19:36 Is there a relationship between energy costs and the private credit crisis?
22:41 Gold, silver and precious metals — tourists flushed out, time to buy
26:13 First ever Bitcoin buy — the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio and why now
30:10 The under-the-radar risk: UK fiscal crisis and bond vigilantes
32:30 US fiscal picture: $39 trillion in debt and the dollar's secular decline
36:48 Why anyone still owns long-term bonds — and why that's changing
39:21 Lehman lessons
43:09 Is private credit already a crisis?
48:00 Parting thoughts and how to find The Bear Traps Report

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris
0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy
2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation?
2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why
4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil
4:26 - Stagflation is ahead
5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut
6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April
7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make?
8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities
9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors
11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now
13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines
13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment?
18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates
20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy
21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades
21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal?
23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?
24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long
25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie?
27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?
28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly?
30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks?
31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing risks facing investors in 2026. Gundlach makes the case that we are living through a fundamental regime shift — one where the next recession brings rising long-term interest rates and a falling dollar, the exact opposite of what most investors expect. He breaks down why the private credit market is shaping up to be the defining financial stress of this cycle, drawing parallels to subprime in 2006 and revealing just how opaque and potentially dangerous the marks in that market really are. He also shares his current asset allocation, explains why American investors should have 100% of their equity exposure outside the US, and lays out two scenarios — dollar debasement or outright debt restructuring — for how America's unsustainable fiscal path eventually resolves. Plus: why he's avoiding general obligation munis in California, Illinois and New York, where gold goes from here, and his non-consensus prediction for the next presidential election.
Links:
Website: https://doubleline.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapital
X: https://x.com/truthgundlach
Economist op-ed: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/12/13/americas-debt-cannot-keep-stacking-up-says-jeffrey-gundlach

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction — Jeffrey Gundlach on the debt burden and why something has to give
1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates
16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks
17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation: 40% non-US stocks, 25% fixed income, 15% commodities, rest in cash
22:00 Private credit: why it reminds him of subprime 2006 and why it’s “a total unmitigated disaster"
38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury —  why the next Fed move actually be a hike?
42:30 Recession probability: at least 50% in 2026
47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history
50:00 The gold call: from $2,915 to $4,000 and where it goes from here
53:00 The most dangerous force in investing: not fear or greed — need
56:00 California, Illinois, New York: avoid all general obligation munis
1:00:20 Wealth taxes, billionaire flight, and why it'll cost more to administer than it raises
1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election
1:02:00 The Fourth Turning reset — why 2030 is the timeline

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.
Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.
His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.
Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.
Links:
Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/
Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/
Timestamps
0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"  
0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky
1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran?
4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers
6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time
9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth
14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp
18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever
19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM
21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance
24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer
25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash
32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"?
36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity
38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift
41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation
42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement
43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities
44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities
47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay