The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 – Intro
0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins?
3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case?
5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers
8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand?
10:16 – Chris's next book: gold
12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver
16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold
17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation
19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields
22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch
24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze
26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s
28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation
32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income
36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
X: https://x.com/QTRResearch
Substack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome back
00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place
03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme"
05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes)
06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble
07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently
12:01 "Being right vs. making money"
13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content
14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion
16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P
18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison
21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out
27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario
30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed
34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate?
36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets
37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy
40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market
41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion
43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto
46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79
Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd
1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning
4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story
5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story
7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle
8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"
10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand
10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%
13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets
14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets
16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk
19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value
23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)
25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold
27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple
28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account
30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"
34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment
36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%
39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper
40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking
41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming
43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro and welcome
00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites
2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks
3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)
5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds
9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"
10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices
12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"
14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?
15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet
16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day
17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild
21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high
23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs
27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)
29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread
31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?
32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns
0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P
2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions
3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility
4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months
5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside
6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction
8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high
9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries
11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk
12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices
13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows
14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months
16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR
19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding
21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move
22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it
24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom
26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high
27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO)
29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks
32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs
33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale