The Julia La Roche Show

• #318 Mike Green: Why $100,000 Is The New Poverty Line In America

  Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs 06:21 The working poor 07:50 Childcare 09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different12:10 The precarity line13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%16:30 What's the solution?18:01 Implications of fixing the problem21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally24:18 Sentiment analysis 26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate31:35 We need a different framework for poverty32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes34:45 Political implications 39:09 What Mike plans to do about it40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green

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• #317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?

  Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:49 FOMC meeting recap04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans05:13 Home price correction coming06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent)16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales22:45 Private credit hidden risk23:53 2026 outlook24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem26:28 Do stablecoins make sense?27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump?34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now?36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

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• #316 Melody Wright, Who Drove 10,000 Miles Across America Observing Housing Conditions, Warns Why We Could See a 38% Correction In Home Prices

  Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss her outlook for housing and why we could see a price correction of 38%. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 - Introduction: Melody Wright joins the show 00:44 - Housing market frozen for three years - lowest sales since 19952:12 - Institutions are net selling and preparing for what's coming 3:16 - The middle class squeezed out of housing market 4:11 - Debunking the "structural housing shortage" myth 6:12 - Regional housing story: What Zillow data reveals 8:03 - Who's running for the exits first: Institutions vs Mom & Pop 9:17 - Home prices going negative for first time in 2+ years 10:20 - 38% correction coming - when housing becomes affordable again11:56 - Why Fed rate cuts won't help housing 14:04 - The China parallel: Over-building and empty inventory 16:48 - Demographics: The silver tsunami and vacant homes 18:15 - Timeline: When foreclosures will materially increase 21:04 - FHA program shutdown and masking delinquencies 23:48 - Why this crisis is worse than 2008 for millennials 24:50 - What Melody changed her mind on about housing 26:04 - The #1 thing people are getting wrong about housing 27:48 - National Association of REALTORS responds to Melody 28:52 - What keeps Melody up at night 30:00 - What a healthy housing market looks like 31:45 - Final advice: Say no to debt slavery and wait

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• #315 Danielle DiMartino Booth Calls Out Fed Powell's Lies In Open Letter To The FOMC - 'Somebody Needed to Say Bullshit, And I Said Bullshit'

  Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC and discuss her open letter manifesto to the committee written on behalf of every hard-working American. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:    Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle 00:33 Reaction to FOMC 01:36 QE? 02:40 Markets are overreacting 02:59 Danielle's open letter to The Federal Open Market Committee06:57 Kevin Hassett 08:45 How to preserve Fed independence 09:20 Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong10:42 The Fed's conflicting mandates 12:25 The unprecedented level of dissent 15:04 Powell was passionately against QE back in 201217:21 The Fed could exert its independence 18:50 Markets think it's QE, but is it? 20:09 Powell 21:29 Fed policy is eviscerating the middle class 25:10 Labor market dynamics 30:12 Biggest fear - civil war without honest monetary policy 32:45 Call to action

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• #314 Chris Whalen: The Case For Kevin Hassett For Fed Chair, No Crisis On Horizon & Why Rate Cuts Are Coming

  Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

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