#286 Chris Whalen: Time To Go Risk-Off, Why A Treasury Crisis Could Be Ahead, & Gold Displaces The Dollar
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels
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#285 Ted Oakley: Expensive Markets, Fed Mistakes, And The Case For Commodities
Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets.Sponsored by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive 2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening13:28 Jobs report 14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential
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#284 Melody Wright: We're In An Insane Housing Bubble Fueled By Speculation That's Worse Than 2008
Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 203517:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts
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#283 Warren Pies On The Widening Perception Gap In Macro, Why A Rate Cut Is Inconsequential,
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era8:00 Fiscal dominance10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks
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#282 Jim Bianco: Fed Chair Powell 'Caved' In Jackson Hole, A Rate Cut in September Would Be A Mistake
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome and introduction0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
Ireland