The Julia La Roche Show

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.
 
Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots
3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much
5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike
6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control
7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed
9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate
10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels
11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX
12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play
13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin
15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions
17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand
17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally
19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues
21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple
22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation
23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them
24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees
26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults
29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets
30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying
31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question
32:07 Next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. https://www.kalshi.com/julia
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth
1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"
2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"
3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"
5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks
7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary
14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero
16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff
17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%
19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 2025
24:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"
26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak
27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic
29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal
30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Opening and introduction
1:23 Market assessment
2:40 IPOs
3:49 Late stage market indicators
7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%
8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure
8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing
11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market
12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings
18:54 Energy thesis
21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries
28:30 Bifurcated economy
29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested
32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time
37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in
39:53 Private credit issue
42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table
44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value.
 

Monetary-Metals.com/julia

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome
01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed
4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms
5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization
7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced
10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks
11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron
13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing
14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets
17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback
20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done
21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies
22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse
23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst
25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI
26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI
27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood
28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links: 
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy
1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations
6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical
7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy
13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions
15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out
16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics
19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing
24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks
30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair
32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary
35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year
37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold
40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel
40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months
43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack