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Bank of England playing chicken with the mortgage market
Rob looks at the complexities surrounding the Bank of England's current monetary policy, particularly its base rate, which is held at 4.75%. With the next decision set for February 6, 2025, Rob highlights the challenges posed by persistent inflation, currently reported at 2.6%, and the implications for the mortgage and property markets. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Bank of England has maintained the base rate at 4.75%, with the next decision scheduled for February 6, 2025. There are concerns about the potential for sticky and rising inflation, which complicates the decision-making process regarding interest rates. The official inflation rate is reported at 2.6%, but there is skepticism about this figure. Many believe that actual inflation is higher, especially when considering everyday expenses like fuel and groceries. The economic environment is characterised by persistent inflation and flatlining growth. The recent autumn budget has raised concerns about stagflation, where the economy experiences stagnant growth alongside high inflation. This situation poses significant challenges for the Bank of England in managing monetary policy. The Bank faces a difficult choice: keeping interest rates high to combat inflation could harm the mortgage and housing markets, while lowering rates might exacerbate inflation and create a housing bubble. This creates a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario. BEST MOMENTS "The Bank of England held rates at 4.75%. The official inflation rate... is at 2.6%. But if you put fuel in your car or go to the supermarket, you're probably finding that prices are going up a little bit more than that." "They're almost in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation... If they keep rates up to deal with inflation, then mortgages and the housing market might struggle." "Rachel Reeves also somehow managed to produce a budget that was inflationary and possibly at the same time deflationary. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before in my life." "Energy is the economy. Without being self-sustained in energy, that's going to lead to all sorts of issues." "If you lower rates, I just think it's gonna lead to a much bigger drop moving forward." VALUABLE RESOURCES GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE: https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast
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9:49
Property Prices Falling in London - beware the ripple effect
Rob discusses the recent decline in house prices in London, highlighting that while the media may exaggerate the situation, the reality shows only modest decreases in certain boroughs. Using data from Halifax, he explores the implications of these trends, noting that London often sets the tone for the rest of the UK housing market. KEY TAKEAWAYS House prices in London have seen a slight decline, with areas like Westminster and Ealing experiencing drops of 3.5% and nearly 5%, respectively. However, these declines are not as dramatic as some reports suggest. London has a high house price to earnings ratio of 8.22, making it one of the least affordable places in the UK, compared to the national average of 6.55. While some areas in London are experiencing price declines, other regions in the UK, such as Stoke-on-Trent and Slough, have seen significant increases in house prices, with rises of 17.2% and 15%, respectively. London often sets the trend for the rest of the UK housing market. A decline in London’s house prices could lead to similar trends in other regions, indicating potential challenges ahead for the national housing market. Despite current fluctuations, demand for housing in the UK remains higher than supply. This creates opportunities for investors, especially if they are prepared to act quickly when prices drop further. BEST MOMENTS "House prices have tumbled across swathes of London, but in reality, they're down by a couple of percent." "London has a house price to earnings ratio of 8.22, making it one of the least affordable places to live in the country." "If London is doing well housing-wise, chances are the rest of the country is going to be doing well housing-wise." "There are always opportunities in the market, and demand for housing in the UK is significantly higher than supply." "If a lot of the boroughs are starting to see declines in house prices, then that will have a ripple effect on the rest of the country." VALUABLE RESOURCES GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE: https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast
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7:24
6 x 2025 Predictions
Rob shares bold predictions for 2025, including expectations for gold prices to soar to $3,000 before retreating to $2,200, and a worldwide recession that could surpass the Great Depression of 1929. He speculates on political changes, predicting that Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister by the end of the year. Additionally, there are forecasts for oil prices to drop to $50 a barrel and the Bank of England's base rate to decrease to 4%, accompanied by rising inflation. KEY TAKEAWAYS It is anticipated that gold will rise to $3,000 before experiencing a sell-off down to $2,200, influenced by market trends and potential economic downturns. A significant worldwide recession is predicted for 2025, potentially worse than the Great Depression of 1929, driven by unsustainable financial practices and market valuations. There is an expectation that Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister, leading to the installation of a new Prime Minister by the end of the year. Oil prices are projected to drop to $50 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by economic slowdowns and recession fears. The Bank of England's base rate is expected to decrease to 4%, while inflation is predicted to rise again, despite current figures suggesting lower rates. BEST MOMENTS "Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister... I think something's going to happen where he is ousted as Prime Minister." "Oil has been slowly going on a downward spiral for a while... that will normally send oil lower." "I believe that the Bank of England will drop that down to 4%. That wouldn't be the right thing to do at all, in my opinion, but I believe it will happen." "I think a new international monetary system will be officially announced... it could be anything." VALUABLE RESOURCES GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE: https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast
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8:05
2024 Predictions Review
Rob reflects on his property finance and macro predictions for 2024, assessing the accuracy of each forecast made at the beginning of the year. The predictions covered a range of topics, including gold prices, the Bank of England's base rate, the commercial property market, house prices, oil prices, and a wildcard prediction regarding the U.S. presidential election... KEY TAKEAWAYS The prediction that gold would hit $2,500 was accurate, with gold peaking at $2,800 later in the year, marking it as one of the best-performing assets. The expectation that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7% was incorrect, as the rate remained significantly lower, around 4.5% to 4.75%. The prediction of a collapse in the commercial property market did not materialise, as the market remained stable in the UK despite some global concerns. The forecast that house prices would increase by 5% year-on-year was also incorrect, with data showing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the previous month. BEST MOMENTS "The first prediction was that gold would hit $2,500 amid economic meltdown. Now, I'm going to give myself a point for this because gold certainly hit $2,500 at the latter end of the year." "The second prediction was that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7%. This is completely incorrect. I haven't fared well with this." "The third prediction was that the commercial property market collapses. Again, I have to give myself a big X on the spot for that one. That hasn't happened." VALUABLE RESOURCES GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE: https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast
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7:21
Why the new Green Energy bill will impact us ALL
Rob examines the complexities of green energy policy and its implications for individuals and property investors in the UK. Emphasising the need for a cleaner and greener environment, the discussion highlights the potential economic burdens that may arise from the government's aggressive decarbonisation goals by 2030. KEY TAKEAWAYS The current green energy policies in the UK are viewed as unsustainable and potentially harmful to the economy, leading to higher energy bills for households and property investors. The goal to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030 is seen as unrealistic, with significant changes required that may not be suitable for the population, potentially resulting in increased costs. Nuclear energy is presented as the cleanest and most reliable baseload energy source, necessary for achieving a greener grid, especially as wind and solar are intermittent and cannot solely meet energy demands. The push for green energy and the associated subsidies will ultimately lead to increased standing charges and energy prices, affecting lower-income households the most and creating a cycle of financial strain. BEST MOMENTS "What the government in the UK are trying to do is not sustainable and not suitable, and it really is making us all poorer." "To decarbonise the electricity grid in five years is, in my opinion, not good." "Nuclear really is the answer... if you want a greener grid and an abundance of electricity, nuclear is the way forward." "We're making ourselves poorer by design... all of those investments, all of those subsidies get passed along to us through a standing charge." "When you tell them it's gonna cost them hundreds and possibly thousands of pounds per person, that's when you're gonna get resistance." VALUABLE RESOURCES https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/new-green-energy-bill-warning-amid-threat-of-120-rise/ar-AA1v8w07?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=f5ffd35f0a5e4935b1341555a0bc4b46&ei=9 GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE: https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast
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13:56

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About The Property Nomads Podcast

Property Nomads brings property and all things currency, money and macro straight to you. All with a no-nonsense attitude! EVENT MENTIONED ON PODCAST https://progressiveproperty.online/live-multiple-streams-of-property-income-interest-london/AMB4692 WHERE TO FIND US = https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast SOVEREIGN MAN PREMIUM INTELLIGENCE MEMBERSHIP = https://dash.sovereignman.com/a/smc12m995/tpnpodcast SOVEREIGN MAN 4th PILLAR = https://dash.sovereignman.com/a/4pmain/tpnpodcast PROPERTY BOOKS Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4 Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle 101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL ABOUT THE HOST Rob Smallbone is the author of the Amazon best-seller Buy-To-Let: How To Get Started as well as 101 Top Property Tips and Property FAQ’s.

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