Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening i...
Central bank policy pains, China’s pivot, the market bubble in 2025, geopolitics vs macro and more
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB’s December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.Neil also talks about whether China’s policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlookLatest quarterly Outlookshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooksWeek-ahead Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts
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29:29
The World in 2025 – The macro themes that will shape next year
This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump’s policy pledges will – and won’t – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next yearhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-yearDrop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook
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21:43
More tariff threats, China and 'Japanification', payrolls preview, India and Trump and more
It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India’s stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating
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22:51
Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing linehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond
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13:26
Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the Ukraine war could look like
Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing’s point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia’s earnings say about AI’s potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-overTrump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraineDrop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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