The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy.

They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz’s potency as a geopolitical choke point.

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. 
They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan’s yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan’s grip on reflation. 
Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank’s efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past.
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Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. 
He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country.

Also on the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the latest activity data suggest the global economy has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Iran conflict – and why that resilience could soon be tested.

Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check.
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove superficial. They discuss issues including:
 Why Beijing increasingly sees the US as a power in relative decline, and how that is shaping Chinese strategy; 
 Why the structural forces pushing the US and China apart are likely to outlast any short-term diplomatic reset; 
 What’s driving the recent improvement in China’s economy, and how that could exacerbate global tensions. 
Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham returns from client meetings in Germany to explain why those who had been expecting an economic turnaround last year have been left disappointed, but to also argue that the prevailing gloom around both the German economy and its politics has become excessive.
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A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate.
Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation risks posed by a prolonged disruption to energy supply, as well as what the UAE’s departure from OPEC could mean for oil markets and what it signals in a world of intensifying US–China competition.

And in a packed week for equities investors, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how key Big Tech earnings reports have landed and explains why bonds have not been performing nearly as well as equities.
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