US-China trade talks preview, what to make of that US-UK "deal", and the future of Europe
One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed between the US and UK, and look ahead to this weekend’s pivotal US-China negotiations in Switzerland.Julian discusses the outlook for China’s exports following their remarkable post-pandemic surge and considers what further stimulus measures might be on the cards. Neil assesses the broader state of global trade ahead of the looming expiration of Donald Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause.Neil also offers a preview of our major upcoming series on the future of Europe – an in-depth project that cuts through the recent optimism to deliver clear-headed analysis, robust data, and compelling presentations.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeThe Future of EuropeData: Tariff Impact ModelData: China Labour Market Indicator
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30:37
There's a trade war on – why aren't the hard data showing it?
If you’re looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump’s tariffs, you’ll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. In his conversation with David Wilder, he addresses the key issues of the moment, including:What Q1 US GDP data and port data aren’t telling us about the negative hit to impact on economies from tariffs;Whether markets have become too complacent about the tariffs impact;How the tariffs threat will influence the Federal Reserve and Bank of England at their meetings in the coming week.Plus, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting on Monday, David Oxley and Olivia Cross from our Commodities & Climate desk talk about what recent signals from Saudi officials could mean for already-weak oil prices. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: The Fed, Bank of England and ECB – Making sense of the latest rate decisionsData: Central Bank HubDrop-In: Which economies could gain if the US turns away from China?Read: Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports?Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf
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22:45
Reports of King Dollar’s death – exaggerated or inevitable?
Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to assess whether there has been a fundamental improvement in the outlook, or if this is a case of investors smoking too much “hopium”. In a wide ranging chat, they discuss:What the latest economic data suggest about the impact of higher tariffs;The chances that the US and China engage enough to get a deal done;Whether King Dollar could be overthrown – and the risks of a dollar crash. Events and analysis referenced in this episodeRecording: Is the dollar’s global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-dollars-global-dominance-casualty-tariff-chaosANZ Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/anz-drop-australias-election-rba-easing-and-economic-outlookDrop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump’s second term so farhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-100-days-economic-impact-trumps-second-term-so-far
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21:23
The pause is on! What to expect from the global economy during and after Trump's tariffs pause
Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” endsWhy we think US growth risks have risen but we still don’t expect a recession How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflationWhat curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty If there’s a US-China trade deal to be doneAnalysis referenced in this episode:Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhereRead: Is China offloading its dollar assets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assetsData: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threathttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threatRead: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025
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28:51
It's a US-China trade war, after all
As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China. Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: Mapping out trade war scenariosMapping out trade war scenarios | Capital EconomicsRead: China and US still in an escalatory loopChina and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital EconomicsMeet: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model Tariff Impact Model | Capital EconomicsWatch: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effectsDrop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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