Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening i...
Tariffs special: The macro implications of Trump's latest trade actions
In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what’s coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy.China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode:Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implicationsChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment
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21:29
In the fog of policy uncertainty, China’s National People's Congress, India in Trumpland and more
In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn’t affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk’s layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress in Beijing.Also on the show, what’s the view of Trump’s tariff threats from India? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah calls from Mumbai after a week of meetings with business, government and media to talk about why Narendra Modi’s administration thinks it can dodge this bullet, as well as the macro environment and RBI response. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/could-uncertainty-weigh-global-economyChina Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environmenthttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environmentCAP: Official data underplays China’s 2024 weaknesshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-official-data-underplays-chinas-2024-weaknessIndia Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run viewhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-weekly/india-weekly-tariff-manoeuvres-rbi-shifts-priorities-long-run
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23:50
Was that the week that changed the world?
It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region’s economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Explore: Global economic fracturinghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economyDrop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challengeshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challengesEM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities
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28:05
Why markets rallied on reciprocal tariffs; Germans to vote in the shadow of Trump, Xi and Putin
Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode’s main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone’s biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country’s stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implicationsGerman economy post-election: from bad to not much betterhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-betterData: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitorhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitorThe slow agony of Germany’s auto industryhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry
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34:52
Lessons from a drama-filled week in Trumpland, China upends the EM development model and more
It’s been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn’t happen, and the implications for macro and markets.As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump’s trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:EMs and the suspension of US aidhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aidDrop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverginghttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-divergingCommodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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