US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts
There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it would fall short of easing the deeper tensions driving the fracturing of the global economy.Also on the show, with crime rising in Latin American countries once seen as relatively safe, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson discusses its economic costs and influence on upcoming elections.Plus, in an exclusive clip from our central bank Drop-In briefing, we look at how the Fed’s latest rate projections compare with ours, and why the Bank of England is growing more sensitive to inflation risks.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: Fracturing in the Age of Trump - New York October 2025Read: China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiencyRead: Counting the cost of crime in Latin AmericaLatAm Outlook: Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprisesWatch: Central Bank Drop-In - Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings
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US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics
The Fed meets this coming week to decide how much monetary relief the US economy really needs. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing says that, employment data aside, the evidence argues for fewer rate cuts than markets are pricing in. He talks to David Wilder about the health of the economy, whether the surge in AI investment is making a difference, and previews the Bank of England meeting, where the pace of quantitative tightening may be slowed by a still-febrile bond market. Also on the show, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley assesses the oil price outlook in light of the week's geopolitical developments in Qatar and Poland, and ahead of OPEC’s 65th anniversary.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeUS economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggestNo more BoE cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next yearLabour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cutsWeak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelinesThe economic and market impact of AIData: GDP NowcastsOPEC at 65: shifting market dynamics expose frailties
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US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's world order optics
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles that weak US August Employment report, previews the coming week’s inflation data, talks about what’s been happening in the bond market and explains just what recent get-togethers in China signal about a new world order.Also on the show, ahead of a crunch vote for France’s government, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham talks about why the French political establishment is struggling to break out of its fiscal logjam, and what this all means for the outlook for the government bond market. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’sDrop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond marketsDrop-In: What’s really holding up the commercial real estate recovery?Fracturing in the Age of Trump - London September 2025Fracturing in the Age of Trump - New York October 2025
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Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy
What tensions will yet erupt as the US–China economic relationship unravels? What will the global economy look like in 2040? And what should business and government leaders be doing now to adapt to an era of economic fracturing?The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy is published on 28 August. In this special episode, author and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the book’s key lessons and to show how today’s headlines reveal the deeper forces driving economic fracturing. Explore Capital Economics' data and analysis on global economic fracturing and sign up for our fracturing events this September/October:Singapore (3rd Sept)Hong Kong (4th Sept)London (17th Sept)New York (9th Oct)
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A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs slowdown
China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist Leah Fahy talks to David Wilder about the latest in China’s rebalancing story and what it means for the trajectory of its economic growth. Also in this episode: July’s US jobs report was a shock, but it’s part of a wider slowdown across advanced economies. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown explains what’s driving the weakness and how it could shape central bank decisions ahead.Events and analysis referenced in this episode:Read: Chinese overcapacity is a disinflationary gift and a geopolitical threatRead: Millions in China are about to see their take-home pay fallRead: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right directionRead: Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just USData: US Labour MarketData: UK Labour Market IndicatorsKey Issue: The economic and market impact of AIFed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025)
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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