Tariffs deadline looms, Trump’s inflammatory tax bill and why deglobalisation isn't nigh
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat’s really troubling about the passage of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax billWhat moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party’s fiscal credibilityAlso on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China’s looming slowdown and India’s relative outperformance.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Data: China-US Trade ReroutingData: Tariff Impact ModelRead: What do tariffs mean for global trade?Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor
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The global economy's fragile underpinnings plus BYD, DeepSeek and China's productivity problems
A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China’s economy. They’re a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government’s industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China’s dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping’s industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China’s economic outlook.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivityRoundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yetRead: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region’s markets struggle to recoverData: APAC Commercial Property
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Special: A fragile peace takes hold – what next for economies and energy markets?
After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal bill making its way through Congress and the looming expirations of Trump’s tariff pauses.Analysis referenced in this episodeOil market fundamentals snap back into focusCommodities Outlook: Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlookIsrael-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty
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Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage
What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation.In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distinction that matters when trying to understand the implications of global crises like this one.Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, joins to explain how markets have been reacting and what kind of volatility to expect as decisions near on US involvement in Israeli strikes, the imposition of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and a crucial vote on US tax cuts in the Senate.Also in this episode, Kiran Raichura, our Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist, previews our new Asia-Pacific CRE coverage, explains why we’re expanding now, what clients can expect, and what our early analysis says about the region’s investment recovery.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenariosKey Issue: Iran-Israel conflictDrop-In: Russia’s rising macro and market risks as war drags onRoundtable: Opportunities and risks in the shadow of US trade protectionism
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Israel-Iran strikes, the Fed’s next steps, US-China trade talks and more
Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains:Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn’t influence the Fed meeting in the coming week; What the latest inflation data signal about how tariffs are working their way through the global economy; Whether a 'shadow' Fed chairman would tackle Donald Trump's problems with the current incumbent What to make of the past week’s round of US-China talks in London.Also on the show, Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain talks about China’s stranglehold on global rare earths supply, how the demand picture will change in the wake of the latest US-China agreement and why Western governments haven’t done more to find alternatives to Chinese sellers. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Israel-Iran escalation and global marketsIsrael’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impactDrop-In: Israel-Iran military strikes – Assessing the global economic implicationsFiring Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's endLimited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are lowRare earths “deal” won’t be the final wordCapital Economics Events
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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