The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

That was a much hotter payrolls report than the market had expected, but how will it influence this month’s Fed decision? With inflation risks still prevalent, how will the ECB and Bank of England approach their September meetings? And what does the surge in bond yields mean for economies?
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown join David Wilder on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss energy prices, bond yields, inflation risks and what they mean for the path of interest rates.

Also on the show, with resurgent energy prices adding to the dilemma facing central bankers and bond markets, we hear an exclusive excerpt from a recent client briefing on our outlook for markets. Our Commodities team looks at the near-term risks to oil product prices and natural gas supply, as well as what the US-Venezuela oil deal could mean for energy markets.

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Global Drop-In: Post-summer macro and markets outlook, Tuesday 8th September
0900 BST/1600 SGT: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook 
1000 ET/1500 BST: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook-0
Watch now: Commodities catch-up – What next for energy, gold and agriculturals?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-commodities-catch-what-next-energy-gold-and-agriculturals

Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff?

Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joins The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the latest tech earnings, whether Scott Bessent has managed to cap Treasury yields and what investors will want to hear from Kevin Warsh in his Jackson Hole address.

Also on the show, just days after Bessent announced ‘Economic D-Day’ for Iran, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson assesses how much pain the Iranian economy is in and whether further pressure from the Trump administration could be enough to force Tehran to capitulate.
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Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/concentrated-earnings-probably-mean-concentrated-returns
Can Iran continue to hold out?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/can-iran-continue-hold-out

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. 
In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including:
What was Scott Bessent’s Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short?
What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds?
Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis?
Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt?
How high could bond yields rise from here?
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Read: How to think about the bond market sell-off
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sell

Read: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today?

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability.

Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October’s Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy.
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What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

Capital Economics events
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi.

Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient.
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How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policies
Your questions on Japan’s markets answered
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answered
EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026)
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026