Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau ...
Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Finding Value in a Volatile Market | Lindsey Bell and Shannon Saccocia
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.Key topics discussed:• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China
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Money Delusions: Barry Ritholtz on the Elusive Definition of Money and How Not to Invest It
Buy Barry's Bookhttps://amzn.to/3F7APZPIn this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest." Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it. Key topics include:Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goalHow childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudesWhy market crashes affect us differently at various life stagesThe dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investorsWhy avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returnsRethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framingThe wisdom of humility in financial decision-makingBarry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.
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The Market Illusion: Mike Green on Inflation, Geopolitics and the Hidden Recession
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economyHow the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest incomeThe strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movementsInsights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTINTwitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
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Nine Timeless Lessons from 2024 | Larry Swedroe
In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle. The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases. The conversation includes practical insights on:Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict marketsThe dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their processWhy patience and discipline are crucial for investment successHow to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocksWhether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTINTwitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
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A $33 Billion Value Manager Who Has Actually Outperformed | Scott McBride
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.Key topics discussed:How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investorsThe importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positionsTheir approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance rightTheir perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UKThoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysisThe growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunitiesMcBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEAhttps://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTINTwitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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