Excess Returns

• The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders

  Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ifeSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003Subscribe on YouTubehttps://youtube.com/@excessreturns

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• Investing in a Debasement Regime | Warren Pies

  Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.Main topics covered• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation• What could ultimately break the debasement regimeTimestamps00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,00038:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics57:13 What could end the debasement regime59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

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• The Four Pillars of Macro - And What They Say About This Market | Andy Constan

  Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.Topics covered:Systematic vs. discretionary macro investingAndy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flowsHow AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stopsTariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growthThe Fed’s independence and what it means for marketsRisk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environmentsHow major flows and corporate buybacks shape market directionWhy Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and setup02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

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• What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden

  In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S.Topics covered:The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottomsWhy this may be the best macro environment in 40 yearsThe policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollarPositioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assetsHow Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his processThe dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadershipInflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenonWhy AI’s economic impact will take longer than expectedThe probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenariosFiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repressionWhy bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equitiesLessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”Timestamps:00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

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• Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Say Could Come Next

  Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.Main topics covered:• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples• Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-endTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning29:00 Financials and recent weakness31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis46:20 The dollar index and its key levels48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds51:10 Final takeaways and closing

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