Excess Returns

• The Risk is in the Water | Graeme Forster on Six Courageous Questions for 2026

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar’s shifting role, and how investors should think about valuation, humility, and navigating a world where the economic “water” is changing. This conversation is packed with global macro insight, long-term investing lessons, and practical frameworks for building more resilient portfolios. Topics Covered:• Why long-term market “water” becomes invisible to investors• Self-reinforcing global cycles and how China’s WTO entry reshaped the world• Signs the 25-year U.S. outperformance cycle may be breaking• How tariffs, political shifts, and corporate reforms change the global landscape• Why international and emerging markets may now offer better expected returns• Why U.S. large caps are not the entire story of American exceptionalism• How to think about valuation, margins, and discounted cash flow models across markets• The AI boom, bubbles, capital cycles, and asymmetric outcomes• How AI CapEx constraints influence winners and losers• The shifting role of the U.S. dollar and why market shocks may behave differently• Maslow’s hierarchy, needs vs. wants, and the return of state-driven capital investment• Deglobalization, reshoring, and the national-security lens for investing• How to evaluate China and Taiwan inside emerging markets• Why humility is an investor’s greatest edgeTimestamps:00:00 Introduction01:02 Why Orbis wrote Six Courageous Questions for 202603:44 The David Foster Wallace “water” analogy and investing06:12 How a 25-year self-reinforcing cycle powered U.S. outperformance10:12 Signs the cycle may be breaking12:00 Corporate reform and opportunity in Asia13:55 Why active share, benchmarking, and incentives distort investor behavior17:31 Decomposing S&P 500 returns: margins, valuations, fundamentals20:20 Expected returns inside and outside the U.S.22:34 Why international stocks offer richer opportunity sets24:25 Currency implications and weakening dollar dynamics26:18 American exceptionalism beyond the top 10 mega caps28:49 Where Orbis is finding value today30:25 Biotech, healthcare, and post-COVID dislocation31:05 How Orbis thinks about valuation in an intangible-heavy world32:09 Is AI a bubble or the beginning of something bigger?34:30 Game theory of AI CapEx and right-tail outcomes36:00 CapEx cycles, history, and who benefits38:00 Indirect AI beneficiaries and the SK Square example40:35 Maslow’s hierarchy and the shift from wants to needs42:32 Deglobalization, national security, and domestic reinvestment44:00 Capital returning to home markets and strategic industries46:00 Can anything reverse these structural trends?48:00 Balancing bottom-up investing with macro awareness49:45 The deeper risk in emerging markets: owning vs. avoiding51:00 Valuation still matters for long-term returns52:29 Corporate behavior, dividends, and re-rating cycles53:52 How Orbis views China vs. bottom-up opportunity55:34 Why great investors must be right 90–95% of the time in decision quality58:00 One lesson Graeme would teach the average investor

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• The Thunderclap That Ends the Cycle | Jim Grant on the Risk No One Sees

  James Grant, legendary founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today’s market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interest rates created distortions that will shape returns for years to come — and where patient investors may ultimately find opportunity.Topics Covered• The historical patterns that define major market cycles• Why interest rate cycles unfold over generations• What the 2021 bond market top tells us about the next decade• How inflation behaves like an underground coal fire• The shift from “capitalism without capital” to the “tangible twenties”• Geopolitical tension, military spending, and inflation risk• The Fed’s role in shaping today’s market distortions• The long-term consequences of QE and financial repression• Private credit, opaque marks, and the fragility beneath the surface• Rising risks inside life insurance balance sheets• Why credit cycles always go further than anyone expects• The challenge of finding long opportunities in today’s market• Why liquidity and patience may be the biggest opportunities• Whether the classic 60/40 portfolio still works• Gold as money and why confidence in paper currencies is eroding• Jim Grant’s one lesson for the average investorTimestamps00:00 Cycle extremes and market absurdities01:00 Interest rates over generations07:00 Defining major tops and bottoms12:30 Where we are in the current rate cycle14:00 Inflation, armed conflict, and tangible investment18:00 The “tangible twenties” and data center boom19:00 Coal fire inflation analogy20:00 Fed independence, politics, and monetary power25:00 The long shadow of the 2008 crisis30:00 QE, zero rates, and long-term consequences33:00 Housing affordability and locked-in rates34:00 Risks in private credit and opaque marks36:00 How far the credit cycle has progressed38:00 Japan, value investing, and long cycles43:00 Where opportunities exist today47:00 The future of the 60/40 portfolio49:00 Structural risks from low-rate distortions51:00 Freedom, politics, and economic consequences56:00 Gold as money58:00 What Jim Grant believes most investors disagree with59:30 The one lesson Jim Grant would teach the average investor

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• The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong War | Jim Paulsen on Why 3% Inflation Isn't the Problem

  In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim’s latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.Topics covered in this episode:• The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message• The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth• Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened• The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits”• How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth• Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy• Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation• How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary• Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation• How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026• Jim’s Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks• The difference between today’s tech cycle and the dot-com bubble• What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive• How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar• Why tech may underperform without collapsing• Jim’s expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environmentTimestamps:00:00 Market setup and inflation overview02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership06:00 Tech’s relative performance beginning to fade07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force34:00 International stock performance and currency impact35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism?42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained47:00 Policy’s impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era55:00 Fed response differences between now and 200057:00 Why today’s tech cycle is structurally different59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 50001:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

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• The One Lesson | 50+ Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You

  In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and long-term thinking, while revealing how great investors navigate markets, behavior, and uncertainty.Main topics covered:Why investing is about preserving and growing wealth, not getting richWhy neither get in nor get out is an investing strategyThe role of base rates in decision-makingThe dangers of performance chasingWhy you should look at your portfolio less oftenThe importance of independent thinking and avoiding envyTreating stocks as businesses, not trading sardinesDiversification across assets, strategies, and economic regimesThe behavioral traps that destroy wealthLiquidity, supply and demand, and how markets really functionThe value of patience, long-term thinking, and sticking to your planHow to build a resilient portfolio that survives different market environmentsWhy simplicity often beats complexityThe role of humility, self-awareness, and keeping emotions out of investingTimestamps:00:00 Investing is about preserving and growing wealth00:45 Why neither get in nor get out is a strategy01:16 How we arrived at the one-lesson question02:00 Finding a portfolio you can live with03:00 Avoiding envy and chasing 10-baggers04:00 Why watching markets too closely hurts results05:00 The Matt Levine rule of unbelievable returns06:00 The power of base rates08:00 Look at your portfolio as little as possible10:00 Treat your holdings like real businesses12:00 Be invested early and think independently14:00 Be kind to yourself and keep taking action15:58 Do not chase performance17:00 Treat every position like you put it on today18:31 Your portfolio is secondary to your life19:44 Buy when others are fearful20:00 Be Rip Van Winkle, not Nostradamus22:00 Navigate the noise and avoid the siren song23:38 The value of simplicity and studying history24:59 Patience and tuning out the noise26:00 True diversification and preparing for unknown regimes27:50 Stick to a strategy that fits your personality29:00 Diversify and be humble about what you know30:00 Most results come from the market, not manager skill32:38 Keep investing simple34:00 Focus on what is knowable35:00 Believe in long-term economic and market resilience37:00 Get out of your own way38:22 Build a philosophy you can stick to39:00 Misjudging probabilities and confidence40:46 Book your gains and contain your losses41:00 Diversification is protection against bad luck42:00 Supply, demand, and liquidity always matter45:00 Markets as a political utility46:00 Find something real if you want true alpha47:00 Write down your decisions48:32 Why 100 percent indexing is unrealistic for most50:00 Alpha through portfolio structure, not just stock picking52:00 Dividends and long-run investing53:56 Valuation, time horizons, and patience55:00 Embracing uncertainty and avoiding pigeonholing56:33 Rules-based processes57:35 Buy good businesses, not just cheap ones59:00 Think long term and save early01:01:00 Focus on the basics first01:02:00 Avoid catastrophic losses01:03:22 Evidence-based investing and avoiding resulting01:04:09 Know what you own and keep fees low01:05:00 Simple strategies often work best01:06:00 Compounding and emotional control01:07:00 Treat savings as savings, not lottery tickets01:07:50 Balance enjoying today with protecting tomorrow01:08:00 Stay invested and think long term01:08:41 Be humble, patient, and systematic01:09:00 Do your own work and build conviction

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• World War AI | Ben Hunt on the Economic Consequences of the AI Boom

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path.Topics covered:• Why the AI narrative flipped from optimism to national security• How AI CapEx creates shortages of energy, capital, and investment elsewhere• The parallels between AI buildout and World War II economic mobilization• Why the promise of AI-driven productivity and leisure was never realistic• The coming squeeze on consumers through higher prices and reduced availability• Why energy bottlenecks and electricity scarcity may lead to rationing• The risk of stagflation and a shrinking job base as AI replaces human labor• The political paths this could take, from authoritarianism to backlash• Ben’s three-policy plan: reshoring, energy expansion, and electricity caps• How investors should think about the boom-bust risk of hyperscale growth• Why awareness and public conversation are essential before the window closesTimestamps:00:00 AI narrative shift and the failure of the carrot01:20 Measuring narratives through Perscient Pro05:30 Why Ben wrote World War AI07:30 The carrot vs. the stick in AI storytelling11:00 Utility bills, consumer squeeze, and rising economic pressures12:30 World War II-level spending and debt dynamics15:30 Crowding out the consumer economy17:00 Interest rates, borrowing, and capital shortages20:00 Energy usage, electricity scarcity, and cost-push inflation24:00 Rationing risk and historical parallels26:00 Jobs, productivity, and AI’s impact on labor31:00 The lack of new job creation in an AI-driven economy33:00 Why new-tech job optimism does not apply here38:00 Market skepticism and narrative extremes41:00 Political risk, backlash, and potential future paths42:20 The three policies: reshoring, energy buildout, electricity caps49:30 Investment implications and the boom-bust cycle55:00 How AI growth must be subordinated to broader economic goals57:00 Why connecting consumer pain to AI buildout is essential59:30 Early signs of state-level limits on data centers01:02:00 Where to follow Ben Hunt and the continuing story

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