$1 Trillion AI Bet. $10 Billion in Profits | Bob Elliott on the AI Income That Isn't Coming
Follow us on Substackhttps://excessreturnspod.substack.comIn this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.Topics covered:• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending• The Fed’s policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternativesTimestamps:00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns
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