Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments.Main topics coveredMarket trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risksHow to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phasesWhat loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioningHow to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levelsUnderstanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signalsLeadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7Growth versus value dynamics across market capsSmall caps, market breadth, and participation signalsSector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estateHow sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader processGold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatilityBitcoin and crypto from a technical perspectiveThe U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implicationsInternational and emerging market opportunitiesHow the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfoliosWhere a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocationTimestamps00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 202601:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation11:01 Using consolidation and support levels13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation21:01 Growth versus value across market caps23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation32:00 Sector rotation overview35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy45:00 International and emerging markets47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker than it appears, how policy lags are shaping the outlook, and why today’s market looks very different from past late-cycle environments. The conversation explores the divide between the “new era” economy and the rest of the market, what that means for investors in 2026, and where opportunities may be emerging as monetary and fiscal policy begin to shift.Topics covered in this episode• Why headline GDP growth may be overstating the true strength of the economy• How trade distortions are affecting recent GDP data• The concept of a “no-shaped economy” and the divide between new era and old era businesses• Labor market signals that suggest economic sluggishness beneath the surface• Why this may be one of the most disliked bull markets in history• The role of policy lags and why easing could matter more than investors expect• How market concentration has shaped returns over the last several years• Warning signs emerging within the technology sector• The relationship between corporate cash levels, R&D spending, and tech leadership• Why market breadth and old era sectors may become more important going forward• Thoughts on bonds, stocks, commodities, gold, and portfolio positioning• Why international and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar• How investors might think about diversification in an unusual market cycleTimestamps00:00 Introduction and key themes from Jim’s outlook03:00 Why the economy may be weaker than GDP headlines suggest06:00 Labor market signals and recession-like dynamics12:00 Policy lags, the Fed, and why growth could soften further15:00 Market performance after multiple strong years18:00 The no-shaped economy and the split between new era and old era24:00 Strange market signals at all-time highs27:00 Valuations, sentiment, and why pessimism matters29:00 Fed easing expectations and consensus forecasts35:00 Warning signs for technology stocks42:00 Corporate cash, R&D spending, and tech leadership risks47:00 Portfolio construction and asset allocation thinking55:00 Final thoughts on opportunities and risks ahead

In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology.Main topics covered• The asymmetric power of compounding and why being wrong half the time can still lead to exceptional long-term returns• Why patience, temperament, and behavior matter more than analytical precision in investing• The role of journaling in improving decision-making and avoiding repeated behavioral mistakes• How investor sentiment reveals itself through IPO markets and portfolio quality late in bull cycles• Why long-term investing requires continuous monitoring rather than buy-and-forget complacency• Letting winners run, cutting losers, and understanding power-law outcomes in stock markets• Liquidity cycles and how they drive market returns in both India and the United States• How bear markets reshape investing philosophy toward resilience, quality, and diversification• When averaging down makes sense and when it is dangerous• The differences between Indian and US equity markets, valuations, and governance• Why home country bias can be a major risk for US-based investors• AI, productivity, profitability, and where future market winners may emerge beyond mega-cap tech• Why passion for investing matters more than money in sustaining long-term successTimestamps00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing54:30 The single most note investors should learn

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dig into forecast season by reviewing and synthesizing insights from 22 major Wall Street and institutional market outlooks. Rather than treating year-end forecasts as precise predictions, the conversation uses them as a framework for understanding consensus views, hidden assumptions, and where the real risks and surprises for 2026 may lie. The discussion spans macroeconomic conditions, AI-driven growth, earnings expectations, valuation risks, and the growing divergence beneath headline market performance, helping investors think more clearly about the range of outcomes ahead.Main topics covered• Why year-end market forecasts are still useful despite being consistently wrong on exact targets• What consensus forecasts reveal about expectations for economic growth in 2026• The role of artificial intelligence in driving earnings, productivity, and capital spending• Reacceleration versus late-cycle slowdown and how forecasters are split on the outlook• Inflation expectations, interest rates, and the likelihood of fewer Fed cuts than expected• Fiscal policy, deficits, and the growing role of government stimulus• Energy constraints, data centers, and the physical limits of the AI buildout• Profit margin expansion versus revenue growth and why this matters for valuations• S&P 500 price targets, earnings assumptions, and where optimism and caution diverge• The dominance of the Magnificent Seven and the debate over market and earnings broadening• Risks beneath the surface, including margin compression, valuation resets, and sector rotation• What investors can learn by comparing the most bullish and most bearish forecastsTimestamps00:00 Forecast season and why reading outlooks still matters03:00 Why precise market targets are misleading but informative05:30 Using consensus forecasts to identify risks and surprises08:30 AI, economic reacceleration, and productivity expectations13:00 Recession risks, stagflation fears, and late-cycle dynamics17:00 Inflation outlook and why it may reemerge later in the year22:00 Fed policy, rate cuts, and rising internal dissent26:00 Fiscal stimulus, deficits, and long-term consequences28:00 AI infrastructure, energy constraints, and data centers35:00 AI diffusion and real-world productivity gains39:00 S&P 500 targets, earnings growth, and valuation assumptions43:00 Profit margins, mean reversion, and long-term risks47:00 Magnificent Seven earnings versus the rest of the market52:00 Market broadening, international stocks, and diversification56:00 Key takeaways for investors heading into 2026

In this special compilation episode of Excess Returns, we ask one revealing question to some of the most respected investors, strategists, and market thinkers in the industry:What is one belief you hold about investing that most of your peers would disagree with?The answers challenge conventional wisdom across macro, valuation, diversification, options, forecasting, AI, and investor behavior.Rather than consensus, this episode highlights how great investors think differently about risk, uncertainty, and long-term outcomes.00:06 Jim Grant – Why gold has been, is, and will remain money02:14 Andy Constan – Why quantitative easing is always pro-growth and inflationary03:36 Liz Ann Sonders – Why year-end market price targets are a useless exercise04:56 Richard Bernstein – Why the stock market is ownership, not a horse race06:33 David Giroux – Why macro investing does not create long-term alpha08:00 Meb Faber – Why dividend investing narratives are often misunderstood11:44 Sam Ro – When valuations actually matter and when they don’t13:27 Jason Buck – Why belief systems in investing are often built on insecurity15:16 Mike Green – Why markets change when metrics become targets17:16 Jerry Parker – Why the Sharpe ratio fails for asymmetric return strategies19:15 Chris Mayer – Why trimming great businesses often hurts long-term returns21:14 Joseph Shaposhnik – Why a stock that has doubled may still be early24:27 Warren Pies – Why price and technicals are essential for managing risk25:33 Katie Stockton – Why technical analysis can stand on its own27:17 Jim Paulsen – Why policy makers matter less than cultural and economic forces28:41 Adam Parker – Why differentiated thinking is the only real edge versus the index30:29 Rupert Mitchell – Why copying great investors is a mistake31:18 Victor Haghani – Why asset allocation should be dynamic, not static33:09 Dan Rasmussen – Why historical growth tells you almost nothing about future growth33:45 Graeme Forster – Why you don't just need to be right 60% of the time35:40 Shannon Saccocia – Why investors should think more like futurists than historians36:21 Cem Karsan – Why options are not derivatives, but the true underlying40:31 Aahan Menon – Why tariffs and macro news matter less than investors think41:49 Andrew Beer – Why simple bets often outperform complex strategies44:09 Bogumil Baranowski – Why successful investing requires far less work than people believe45:55 Rick Ferri – Why advice fees and asset management fees should be separated46:57 Cameron Dawson – Why multidisciplinary thinking is essential for investors48:24 Mary Ann Bartels – Why blue chip dividend investing still has a place49:40 Travis Prentice – Why turnover depends entirely on the strategy50:24 Scott McBride – Why catalysts are overrated in value investing50:58 Jared Dillian – Why tariffs and protectionism make economies poorer53:35 Peter Atwater – Why shareholders are no longer the top corporate priority54:34 Ian Cassel – Why turnover myths persist in microcap investing55:31 Kris Sidial – Why trading psychology matters more than models56:17 Noel Smith – Why top hedge fund returns are not the upper limit57:09 Kai Wu – How AI will reshape investing jobs without replacing humans01:00:49 Tim Hayes – Why markets cannot be forecast reliably01:02:12 Doug Clinton – Why AI-powered asset management could be a multi-trillion-dollar industry