Excess Returns

• The Pattern Is Staggering | Mary Ann Bartels on Why This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started

  In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and diversification. Mary Ann also explains why skepticism suggests we are not yet in a true bubble, how valuations fit into today’s market, and what investors should understand about cycles, inflation, and long-term compounding.Topics Covered• Secular bull markets and why the long-term trend still points higher• Whether today’s market is following historic bubble patterns• AI, technology cycles, and the connection between innovation, productivity, and profits• Why skepticism means we are not yet near euphoria• The 2026 “reset” and how the presidential cycle could affect markets• Valuations, earnings trends, and interest-rate dynamics• Market concentration, structural changes, and the role of mega-caps• Growth vs value and why growth leadership may persist• Why international markets may be entering their own secular bull market• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and what the data now suggests• Private credit concerns and overall financial-system stability• Gold’s surge, future targets, and its role as portfolio diversification• Portfolio construction, risk, and the importance of compounding for younger investorsTimestamps00:00 Market patterns, bubbles, and early-cycle dynamics01:00 Introduction02:00 Long-term S&P 500 outlook04:00 Historical bubble analogs and market psychology06:00 Skepticism vs optimism09:00 2026 reset and election-year dynamics13:00 Valuations and PE expansion17:00 Long-term valuation trends17:40 Innovation cycles and economic growth20:20 Productivity, AI CapEx, and profitability21:00 Technology adoption across industries22:20 Digitization and long-term tech layers22:30 Market concentration and structural changes25:00 Why corrections are more frequent27:20 Growth vs value31:00 International markets outlook36:00 Correlations, deglobalization, and opportunity38:40 Inflation short-term vs long-term40:30 Private credit and financial stability43:30 Gold outlook and targets45:40 Diversifying concentrated portfolios48:40 Crypto, private markets, and generational shifts49:20 Key risks for 202651:40 What most investors get wrong53:00 The one lesson for the average investor54:40 Closing

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• The Risk Isn't Where You Think | Carl Kaufman on AI Capex, Private Credit and the Hidden Bond Play

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for investors trying to understand yields, defaults, duration, and where returns are most attractive today.Main topics covered:• Overview of investment grade, high yield, leveraged loans, and private credit• How today’s credit quality is shifting across the bond market• Why the high yield market may be higher quality than most investors realize• How levered loans and private credit have changed system dynamics• How Carl uses the interest rate cycle and credit cycle to position the portfolio• Why he avoids style boxes and instead buys bonds like a stock picker• The flaws in fixed income indexing and why active management matters more in bonds• How he evaluates companies, business models, leverage, and free cash flow• Why distributors and equipment rental companies are strong long-term bond businesses• The risks of the AI Capex boom and echoes of past bubbles• Where defaults are rising and why private credit concerns may not be systemic• Why his portfolio is short duration and how he uses cash as optionality• How he protects against large drawdowns and manages risk across cycles• His perspective on the Fed, inflation, employment data, and rate cuts• Carl’s one investing belief most peers disagree with• The one lesson he would teach every investorTimestamps:00:00 Intro and bond market quality shift01:00 Carl’s background and fund philosophy02:42 Defining investment grade, high yield, loans, and private credit08:00 Why high yield quality has improved10:07 The two-cycle approach: interest rates and credit14:31 How today’s cycle differs18:03 Why forecasting matters less than knowing where you are18:52 Buying bonds like a stock picker25:28 Index flaws in fixed income26:56 Sectors Carl prefers29:16 Thoughts on AI Capex, Nvidia, and financing trends33:10 Sector concentration in bond portfolios34:51 Position sizing and portfolio construction35:43 Cracks in private credit and default data39:45 Private credit for retail investors40:34 Why Carl is short duration today44:57 Using cash and liquidity as a strategic tool45:44 Risk management and drawdowns47:29 The Fed, inflation, employment, and policy uncertainty53:53 Closing questions: belief peers disagree with54:45 One lesson for the average investor

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• The Bubble You Can't Short | Rob Arnott on What You Can Do Instead

  Follow Us on Substack:https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates’ latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and the opportunities in international and emerging markets.Topics covered:• How Rob defines a bubble and why narrative drives market pricing• Lessons from the dot-com era that apply to today’s AI-driven market• Why disruptors eventually get disrupted• Practical portfolio steps for investors concerned about concentration• Why value stocks remain historically cheap• CapEx vs R and D and what history says about future returns• The role of AI spending and why many companies struggle to monetize it• How AI may reshape industries and who the real long-term winners could be• Index construction flaws and how RA’s RAFI and RACWI approaches differ• A new way to build growth indexes using actual business growth• Why expensive companies with slow growth are the worst quadrant to own• Insights on emerging markets, international value, and forward return expectations• How Rob invests personally and what he sees as the best long-term opportunitiesTimestamps:00:00 Defining bubbles and why narrative matters02:00 Are we in a bubble today06:20 Lessons from the dot-com boom12:00 What investors can practically do now14:00 Value, RAFI, and rebalancing alpha17:00 AI CapEx and its historical parallels20:30 Who benefits most from AI23:00 Disruption, technology cycles, and productivity35:00 Reinventing index construction40:00 A new way to define and weight growth stocks43:30 The problem with expensive slow-growth companies46:00 Magnificent Seven through the growth lens52:00 Rob’s outlook on emerging markets55:00 Why the US is priced for perfection57:00 Averaging out and trimming expensive winners58:00 New research and future product ideas from RA59:00 Rob’s personal portfolio approach and long-short ideas01:00:20 Closing thoughts and outlook

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• The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind the Rise of Financial Nihilism

  Follow Click Beta:Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUsApple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

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• The Two Tailed Market Risk | Brent Kochuba on What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

  Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJfSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009Subscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

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