Excess Returns

Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing.

With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold.

Topics covered:
- How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding
- Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money
- The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence
- Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate
- How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle
- The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity
- How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets
- The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows
- Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures
- China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin

Chapters:
00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity
04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding
09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle
14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks
18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination
22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle
29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms
33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands
41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility
46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures
50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy
55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds.

Topics covered:
- Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top
- What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth
- How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights
- The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending?
- Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short
- What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers
- Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout
- How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation
- What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdown

Chapters:
00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk
05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth?
10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 500
14:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ
20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight
24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip
30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets
37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI
42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade
47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks
55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winners

Research discussed:
Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going?
https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-going

Astoria Investment Management
https://www.astoriaim.com/

Astoria on X
https://x.com/AstoriaAdvisors

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset.

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute.

Topics covered:
- Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect?
- The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy
- Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance
- Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings
- Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability
- How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index
- Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies
- Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months
- Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon
- Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendations
Chapters:
00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed
05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course?
11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital
16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk
22:30 Can chip margins stay this high?
26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways
32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs
37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories
42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut
46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panel

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process.

Topics covered:
- How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples
- Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations
- CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction
- What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk
- Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations
- His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy
- Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE
- Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield
- How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding
- Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered calls

Infrastructure Capital Advisors:
https://www.infracapfunds.com/

Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X:
https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAP

InfraCap's CPI-R analysis:
https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-r

Chapters:
00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios
06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples
13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing
18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand
26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations
31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield
38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data
43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target?
47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment
55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls
01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compounding

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several funds can still leave you dependent on the same companies and the same AI spending cycle.
In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau for a walkthrough of Sparkline Analytics. Using examples from the S&P 500, Nasdaq, emerging markets, and active funds, they examine what investors actually own beneath the fund labels.
Kai explains his distinction between AI infrastructure, early adopters, and laggards, then demonstrates how factor analysis, intangible asset data, and a portfolio builder can help investors ask better questions about diversification and manager performance.
Explore Sparkline Analytics:
https://app.sparklinecapital.com/
Topics covered:
How AI infrastructure exposure can overlap across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and thematic AI funds
Why Kai Wu distinguishes AI early adopters from infrastructure builders and laggards
How rising capital expenditures can change the economics of formerly asset-light businesses
Why a fund's number of holdings can overstate its diversification
How semiconductor exposure can connect emerging markets to the same AI trade
The trade-off between reducing AI infrastructure exposure and increasing exposure to laggards
What ARKK illustrates about separating stock selection from factor headwinds
Why dividend, value, and low-volatility funds can have similar underlying exposures
How patents, R&D, and human capital reveal assets traditional value metrics can miss
Using fund comparisons and portfolio look-through tools to identify overlapping positions
Chapters:
00:00 Sparkline Analytics and hidden AI exposure in the S&P 500
08:05 AI adopters, laggards, and multinational businesses
12:47 How index exposure changes as the AI cycle evolves
20:41 Does adding an AI fund diversify your portfolio?
25:44 Capital spending and effective portfolio concentration
30:14 Capital intensity and AI exposure beyond Big Tech
35:44 Diversifying without retreating into AI laggards
40:48 Screening funds and looking inside ARKK
46:11 Separating stock-picking alpha from factor exposure
52:35 Dividend, value, and low-volatility fund overlap
57:52 Intangible value and a fund-diligence checklist
01:05:39 Building a portfolio and looking through its holdings
01:10:39 Where to find Sparkline Analytics
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.