Excess Returns

• The One Lesson | 50+ Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You

  In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and long-term thinking, while revealing how great investors navigate markets, behavior, and uncertainty.Main topics covered:Why investing is about preserving and growing wealth, not getting richWhy neither get in nor get out is an investing strategyThe role of base rates in decision-makingThe dangers of performance chasingWhy you should look at your portfolio less oftenThe importance of independent thinking and avoiding envyTreating stocks as businesses, not trading sardinesDiversification across assets, strategies, and economic regimesThe behavioral traps that destroy wealthLiquidity, supply and demand, and how markets really functionThe value of patience, long-term thinking, and sticking to your planHow to build a resilient portfolio that survives different market environmentsWhy simplicity often beats complexityThe role of humility, self-awareness, and keeping emotions out of investingTimestamps:00:00 Investing is about preserving and growing wealth00:45 Why neither get in nor get out is a strategy01:16 How we arrived at the one-lesson question02:00 Finding a portfolio you can live with03:00 Avoiding envy and chasing 10-baggers04:00 Why watching markets too closely hurts results05:00 The Matt Levine rule of unbelievable returns06:00 The power of base rates08:00 Look at your portfolio as little as possible10:00 Treat your holdings like real businesses12:00 Be invested early and think independently14:00 Be kind to yourself and keep taking action15:58 Do not chase performance17:00 Treat every position like you put it on today18:31 Your portfolio is secondary to your life19:44 Buy when others are fearful20:00 Be Rip Van Winkle, not Nostradamus22:00 Navigate the noise and avoid the siren song23:38 The value of simplicity and studying history24:59 Patience and tuning out the noise26:00 True diversification and preparing for unknown regimes27:50 Stick to a strategy that fits your personality29:00 Diversify and be humble about what you know30:00 Most results come from the market, not manager skill32:38 Keep investing simple34:00 Focus on what is knowable35:00 Believe in long-term economic and market resilience37:00 Get out of your own way38:22 Build a philosophy you can stick to39:00 Misjudging probabilities and confidence40:46 Book your gains and contain your losses41:00 Diversification is protection against bad luck42:00 Supply, demand, and liquidity always matter45:00 Markets as a political utility46:00 Find something real if you want true alpha47:00 Write down your decisions48:32 Why 100 percent indexing is unrealistic for most50:00 Alpha through portfolio structure, not just stock picking52:00 Dividends and long-run investing53:56 Valuation, time horizons, and patience55:00 Embracing uncertainty and avoiding pigeonholing56:33 Rules-based processes57:35 Buy good businesses, not just cheap ones59:00 Think long term and save early01:01:00 Focus on the basics first01:02:00 Avoid catastrophic losses01:03:22 Evidence-based investing and avoiding resulting01:04:09 Know what you own and keep fees low01:05:00 Simple strategies often work best01:06:00 Compounding and emotional control01:07:00 Treat savings as savings, not lottery tickets01:07:50 Balance enjoying today with protecting tomorrow01:08:00 Stay invested and think long term01:08:41 Be humble, patient, and systematic01:09:00 Do your own work and build conviction

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• World War AI | Ben Hunt on the Economic Consequences of the AI Boom

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path.Topics covered:• Why the AI narrative flipped from optimism to national security• How AI CapEx creates shortages of energy, capital, and investment elsewhere• The parallels between AI buildout and World War II economic mobilization• Why the promise of AI-driven productivity and leisure was never realistic• The coming squeeze on consumers through higher prices and reduced availability• Why energy bottlenecks and electricity scarcity may lead to rationing• The risk of stagflation and a shrinking job base as AI replaces human labor• The political paths this could take, from authoritarianism to backlash• Ben’s three-policy plan: reshoring, energy expansion, and electricity caps• How investors should think about the boom-bust risk of hyperscale growth• Why awareness and public conversation are essential before the window closesTimestamps:00:00 AI narrative shift and the failure of the carrot01:20 Measuring narratives through Perscient Pro05:30 Why Ben wrote World War AI07:30 The carrot vs. the stick in AI storytelling11:00 Utility bills, consumer squeeze, and rising economic pressures12:30 World War II-level spending and debt dynamics15:30 Crowding out the consumer economy17:00 Interest rates, borrowing, and capital shortages20:00 Energy usage, electricity scarcity, and cost-push inflation24:00 Rationing risk and historical parallels26:00 Jobs, productivity, and AI’s impact on labor31:00 The lack of new job creation in an AI-driven economy33:00 Why new-tech job optimism does not apply here38:00 Market skepticism and narrative extremes41:00 Political risk, backlash, and potential future paths42:20 The three policies: reshoring, energy buildout, electricity caps49:30 Investment implications and the boom-bust cycle55:00 How AI growth must be subordinated to broader economic goals57:00 Why connecting consumer pain to AI buildout is essential59:30 Early signs of state-level limits on data centers01:02:00 Where to follow Ben Hunt and the continuing story

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• The Real Estate Bust Was the Plan | Louis-Vincent Gave on China's Brute Force Growth Strategy

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing.Topics covered in this episode:• Why Western investors misread China’s economy• China’s response to the US semiconductor embargo• How China redirected all lending toward industry• The scale and speed of China’s move up the value chain• China’s EV dominance and the BYD vs. Tesla comparison• The new global deflation and reflation forces• Why China now looks like the US did in 2009• Energy, labor, and industrial competitiveness• China’s open-source AI approach vs. America’s closed systems• “Hunger Games” capitalism and the impact on investors• Where foreign investors consistently get China wrong• The RMB as the most mispriced major asset• How China’s demographics shape policy and markets• Why fears of a Taiwan conflict are overblown• How Louis is positioning for China’s next bull marketTimestamps:00:00 China’s economic shock and the US semiconductor embargo02:00 What the West gets wrong about China04:00 Competition, local governments, and industrial incentives06:10 China’s lending shift: real estate to industry08:00 China’s rapid climb up the value chain10:00 BYD vs Tesla and China’s engineering surge12:30 The global deflationary shock and US–China tensions15:00 From defense to offense: China’s policy pivot17:00 China’s reflation and emerging market implications18:20 Scarcity of energy, labor, and time21:00 China’s cost advantages vs the US24:00 Comparing AI strategies: open vs closed systems28:00 “Hunger Games” capitalism in China31:30 Investing challenges and opportunities in China34:00 China’s new high-tech niche champions37:00 Capital-light Chinese AI vs US capital intensity40:30 Rethinking US-China blocs and global alliances44:00 Why Europe will be torn apart by the next phase45:30 Will China outperform the US over the next decade?47:00 The massively undervalued RMB49:00 China’s barbell investment setup50:00 China’s demographic crisis and policy response53:00 Taiwan risk: myth vs reality58:00 How Louis could be wrong01:00:40 Louis’s contrarian investing belief01:02:00 Louis’s one lesson for investors

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• The Pattern Is Staggering | Mary Ann Bartels on Why This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started

  In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and diversification. Mary Ann also explains why skepticism suggests we are not yet in a true bubble, how valuations fit into today’s market, and what investors should understand about cycles, inflation, and long-term compounding.Topics Covered• Secular bull markets and why the long-term trend still points higher• Whether today’s market is following historic bubble patterns• AI, technology cycles, and the connection between innovation, productivity, and profits• Why skepticism means we are not yet near euphoria• The 2026 “reset” and how the presidential cycle could affect markets• Valuations, earnings trends, and interest-rate dynamics• Market concentration, structural changes, and the role of mega-caps• Growth vs value and why growth leadership may persist• Why international markets may be entering their own secular bull market• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and what the data now suggests• Private credit concerns and overall financial-system stability• Gold’s surge, future targets, and its role as portfolio diversification• Portfolio construction, risk, and the importance of compounding for younger investorsTimestamps00:00 Market patterns, bubbles, and early-cycle dynamics01:00 Introduction02:00 Long-term S&P 500 outlook04:00 Historical bubble analogs and market psychology06:00 Skepticism vs optimism09:00 2026 reset and election-year dynamics13:00 Valuations and PE expansion17:00 Long-term valuation trends17:40 Innovation cycles and economic growth20:20 Productivity, AI CapEx, and profitability21:00 Technology adoption across industries22:20 Digitization and long-term tech layers22:30 Market concentration and structural changes25:00 Why corrections are more frequent27:20 Growth vs value31:00 International markets outlook36:00 Correlations, deglobalization, and opportunity38:40 Inflation short-term vs long-term40:30 Private credit and financial stability43:30 Gold outlook and targets45:40 Diversifying concentrated portfolios48:40 Crypto, private markets, and generational shifts49:20 Key risks for 202651:40 What most investors get wrong53:00 The one lesson for the average investor54:40 Closing

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• The Risk Isn't Where You Think | Carl Kaufman on AI Capex, Private Credit and the Hidden Bond Play

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for investors trying to understand yields, defaults, duration, and where returns are most attractive today.Main topics covered:• Overview of investment grade, high yield, leveraged loans, and private credit• How today’s credit quality is shifting across the bond market• Why the high yield market may be higher quality than most investors realize• How levered loans and private credit have changed system dynamics• How Carl uses the interest rate cycle and credit cycle to position the portfolio• Why he avoids style boxes and instead buys bonds like a stock picker• The flaws in fixed income indexing and why active management matters more in bonds• How he evaluates companies, business models, leverage, and free cash flow• Why distributors and equipment rental companies are strong long-term bond businesses• The risks of the AI Capex boom and echoes of past bubbles• Where defaults are rising and why private credit concerns may not be systemic• Why his portfolio is short duration and how he uses cash as optionality• How he protects against large drawdowns and manages risk across cycles• His perspective on the Fed, inflation, employment data, and rate cuts• Carl’s one investing belief most peers disagree with• The one lesson he would teach every investorTimestamps:00:00 Intro and bond market quality shift01:00 Carl’s background and fund philosophy02:42 Defining investment grade, high yield, loans, and private credit08:00 Why high yield quality has improved10:07 The two-cycle approach: interest rates and credit14:31 How today’s cycle differs18:03 Why forecasting matters less than knowing where you are18:52 Buying bonds like a stock picker25:28 Index flaws in fixed income26:56 Sectors Carl prefers29:16 Thoughts on AI Capex, Nvidia, and financing trends33:10 Sector concentration in bond portfolios34:51 Position sizing and portfolio construction35:43 Cracks in private credit and default data39:45 Private credit for retail investors40:34 Why Carl is short duration today44:57 Using cash and liquidity as a strategic tool45:44 Risk management and drawdowns47:29 The Fed, inflation, employment, and policy uncertainty53:53 Closing questions: belief peers disagree with54:45 One lesson for the average investor

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