Excess Returns

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money.
In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with.
From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture.
The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money.
How I Invest My Money Volume Two:
https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfS
Topics covered:
Why knowing how markets work doesn't produce one right portfolio for everyone
What Ben Hunt and other contributors reveal about investing beyond a brokerage account
Connecting personal goals to asset allocation and risk tolerance
Why business ownership and household needs change the role of stocks and bonds
Why financial professionals may deliberately hold substantial cash reserves
The difference between spreadsheet optimization and a portfolio you can stick with
Paying off a mortgage, feeling secure, and accepting the opportunity cost
The complexity and illiquidity that can come with alternative investments
Matt Zeigler's approach to compounding human, intellectual, social, and financial capital
Brian Portnoy's experience editing the book with his son Zach and sharing opportunities across generations
Chapters:
00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money
05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds
12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices
18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations
25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind
34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost
40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry
44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money
52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his son
Shaping Wealth:
https://www.shapingwealth.com
Follow Brian Portnoy on X:
https://x.com/bportnoy_
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners.
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In this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests.
Topics covered:
Why Rob Arnott sees a real AI revolution alongside risks in the prices of its leading stocks
How AI customers could capture value beyond the infrastructure builders
Valuation changes versus fundamental growth in large and smaller companies
Tesla, SpaceX, and the price pressures surrounding index inclusion
Hidden implementation costs that do not appear in an index fund’s expense ratio
Selecting index members by business size rather than market value
AI financing, customer economics, and the risk of rapid hardware obsolescence
R&D, intangible assets, and what conventional book value can miss
Competitive moats, leadership, and creating value for customers
Using AI in research while resisting overfitting and performance chasing
Research discussed:
⁠The Active Side of Indexing⁠
⁠Fundamental Growth⁠
Learn more about ⁠Syzygy Asset Management⁠.
Timestamps:
00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners
12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for
20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion
25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions
36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive
42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence
47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing
51:04 How durable are competitive moats?
59:01 Using AI in business and investment research
01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠excessreturns.co⁠
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?
In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.
Topics covered:
What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexes
Interest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patterns
Prediction markets as a source of information for investors
AI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growth
Why bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity risk
Small-cap profitability and the importance of quality screens
AI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investment
Private-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationale
Using thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive core
Portfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexible
Learn more about Tema ETFs.
Follow Paisley Nardini on X.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market
04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook
09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets
13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership
19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns
26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality
33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?
39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work
45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs
52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio
58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.
Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.
The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.
Topics covered:
The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for value
How higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity set
AI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losers
Valuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flow
Using AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is broken
The US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond tech
Japan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced in
China's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany it
How restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock value
Building a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narratives

T. Rowe Price International Value Fund
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:
00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor
07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s
11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set
16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers
21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk
25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research
29:56 Comparing US and international valuations
35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets
40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea
44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks
49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy
54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds
59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.
In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.
We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.
Topics covered:
Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call
His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy
How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage
The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises
Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks
AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits
How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning
The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"
What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth
Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance
Follow Jim Paulsen:
Paulsen Perspectives
Jim Paulsen on X
Timestamps:
00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call
07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period
14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently
20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects
26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy
30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?
35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency
42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven
47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure
53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal
58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.