Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?
The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.
From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.
Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.
Key Takeaways:
Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.
The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.
AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.
The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.
The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.
The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question
2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes
6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment
10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons
15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps
22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals
33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks
41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break
49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn
54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.
The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.
From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.
Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.
Key Takeaways:
"Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch
1:37 — Sell in May Reframed
6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality
10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months
14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness
22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist
35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices
44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift
50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks
53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jeff:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/
• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!
On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.
Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.
Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.
Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.
Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.
Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.

Jump to:
0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 
1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 
6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 
11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 
13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 
16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 
21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 
22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 
26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 
29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 
32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 
36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 
41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times.
Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance.
They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative.
Key Takeaways:
Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia
Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction
AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD
Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech
Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time
Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target
The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts
GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal
Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:
0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff 
1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer 
6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout 
10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative 
14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally 
18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze 
22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain 
25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment 
37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target 
52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion 
59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Talmon:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/
• X: https://x.com/talmonsmith

Connect with Josh:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/
• X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer

Questions? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?
Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.
The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.
Key Takeaways:
The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief
Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index
Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns
Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat
Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models
Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically
Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup
0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons
3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule
8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role
9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally
16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy
22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples
29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials
37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence
44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth
47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends
50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story
53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?
56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]