Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal.
The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene.
[Key Takeaways]
The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names.
Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America.
Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools.
The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession.
Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size.
Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor.

Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof
2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull
9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds
10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up
12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks
15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears
24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality
30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers
34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs
39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety
42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow
48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers
55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals
58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher.
The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest.
[Key Takeaways]
Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%.
AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter.
Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion.
S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials.
The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims.
Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s.

Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup
1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target
5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP
9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels
14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal
17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech”
18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher
27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone
31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing
35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation
42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns
49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers
52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up
57:08 - Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble.
The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook.
[Key Takeaways]
The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.
Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.
Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.
AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.
Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.
The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.
Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones
0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally
3:26 - What Really Drove Returns
8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation
16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats
23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management
28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story
32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era
42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership
47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market.
The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished.
From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs.
While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record.
Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early.
While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings.
Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion.
Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace.
While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years.

Jump to:
0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders
6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation
9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts
16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons
27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing
33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits
35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets.
Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions.
Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%.
Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet.
Key Takeaways: 
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.
Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.
The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.
After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.
Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday.

Jump to:
0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day
3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed
8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement
13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock
19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise
24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure
28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed
34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot
37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check
40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation
53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com