Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value. 
It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise.
Key Takeaways:
Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee 
Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates 
Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends 
Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves 
Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotates
Jump to:
0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data
1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh
4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record
9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality
14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged
19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing
25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely
31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle
36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates
41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January
46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets.
They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect.
Key Takeaways:
 • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection
 • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks
 • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%
 • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers
 • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves
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Jump to:
0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes
2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained
8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation
14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold
19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets
23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up
30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different
38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds
42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth
48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk
53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities.
Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture.
Key Takeaways:
Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarity
Bond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibility
Metals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demand
Household balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growth
Market leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market

Jump to:
0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare
3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day
5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess
11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard
15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop
20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold
25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations
31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin
36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage
44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks
50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.
Key Takeaways:
Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines

Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise

Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty

Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong

Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull market
Jump to:
0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals
6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence
12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents
19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks
28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals
31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions
41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.
They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.
Key Takeaways:
 • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains
 • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise
 • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved
 • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends
 • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession
Jump to:
0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025
1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom
4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth
9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced
14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts
22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations
27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers
32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions
40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare
46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]