Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible.
Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%.
The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive.
On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately.

Key Takeaways: 
NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199.
The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate.
When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen.
Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data.
Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't.
A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits.

Jump to:
0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff
0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco
1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler
2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse
9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team
10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much
18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks
24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission
25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving
34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy
38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust
41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect
45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off
45:42 - Important Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago.
The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI.
From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface.

Jump to:
0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions
1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means
6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism
12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI
16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost
21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different
30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers
36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds
41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion
47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.
The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.
From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.
Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.
SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.
At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.
A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.
Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question
1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally
10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders
14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check
15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates
20:48 — Google funds AI data centers
26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats
29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes
43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect.
It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top.
Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for.
Key Takeaways:
Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.
Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.
Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.
Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.
Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.
Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going

Jump to:
3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices
6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate
8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals
13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows
21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches
25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership
33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak
37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks
45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings
48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching
50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details
54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks
1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.
When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.
From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.
Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.
The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.
Key Takeaways:
The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.
AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.
S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.
The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.
The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?
6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair
13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data
21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice
34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash
43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending
49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com