Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 209 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, celebrate the bull market turning four. With the S&P 500 up about 128% on a price basis and 131% including dividends since October 2022, the hosts note that no bull market in the last 50 years has made it past its third birthday and failed to reach a fifth. They explain why this one is being driven by earnings rather than valuations: of the 128% price gain, roughly 85 percentage points came from profit growth, and 40 of those from margin expansion, while forward P/E multiples have fallen from about 22x to roughly 19.5x this year as Treasury yields climbed.
From there, Ryan and Sonu unpack the market's biggest stress points and risks. They look at why triple-C spreads are blowing out while the broader high yield market and loans are holding up, and why that points to an interest rate problem rather than a credit problem. They discuss strong Treasury auction demand, the rapid growth of hyperscaler bond issuance as a share of net Treasury borrowing, and SpaceX's $150 billion in fundraising and its threat to telecom stocks. Sonu also warns that billions in AI compute contracts begin billing in 2027 to 2029, making 2027 and 2028 the potential reckoning for the AI capex cycle.
The episode wraps with a look at the Russell 2000's slide against the S&P 500, the dollar breaking above 100 on the Dixie, the case for staying diversified, and a preview of next week's midterm election episode with Libby Cantrell of PIMCO.
[Key Takeaways]
The bull market turned four with the S&P 500 up about 128% (131% with dividends). Every bull market in the last 50 years that passed its third birthday went on to a fifth, and year five has historically been strong, with the last fifth-year bear market coming in the 1960s.
Earnings, not valuations, are driving returns. About 85 percentage points of the gain came from profit growth, including roughly 40 from margin expansion, versus only 33 from multiple expansion. This year, forward P/E has fallen from about 22x to 19.5x, a roughly 15-point drag offset by 29 points of profit growth.
Triple-C spreads are near 900 basis points, but high yield overall is flat and interest rate-hedged high yield and loans are beating cash. The hosts see a duration problem from rising yields rather than a broad credit problem.
Hyperscaler bonds have jumped from 1% to 2% of net new Treasury borrowing to about 14% over the last year. SpaceX has raised roughly $150 billion in four months, and its five-year CDS hit a record 200 basis points.
Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome And A Bull Market Birthday
1:34 - Nobel Prize Irony And Fed Mistakes
4:27 - Triple C Spreads Versus Real Stress
10:59 - The Economist Cover And Bond Fear
15:41 - Bond Auctions And Who Buys Treasuries
17:01 - Hyperscaler Debt And SpaceX Funding
23:30 - OpenAI Headlines And Market Breadth
28:30 - The AI Capex Bill Comes Due
35:12 - Dollar Strength Gold And Diversification
37:07 - Bull Market Turns Four The History
42:11 - Profits Margins And Multiple Contraction
51:28 - Small Caps Versus Higher Yields
53:19 - CPI PPI And What We Watch Next
57:14 - How To Support The Podcast

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 208 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, make the case that market breadth is overrated. With the S&P 500 less than half a percent from an all-time high and the Nasdaq printing a new record, the hosts explain why tech and tech-adjacent stocks, roughly half of the index, are carrying the market even as 10 of 11 sectors finished September in the red. They point to Micron's strong earnings, South Korea's surging chip exports, and rising AI capex estimates as evidence that profit growth is overpowering the rise in yields.
From there, Ryan and Sonu break down the revised PCE data, arguing that inflation remains stubbornly hot, and cover the dovish turn from Fed officials that dropped October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 20%. They also discuss why the weak headline payrolls mask a healthy labor market.
The episode wraps with a look at fourth-quarter seasonality, cautious investor sentiment near all-time highs, and their view that a global bull market supports staying diversified with a tilt toward tech and AI.
[Key Takeaways]
September's S&P 500 was nearly flat (down 0.3%) with 10 of 11 sectors in the red, but tech rose about 5%. The hosts expect a breakout in the tech sector ETF to lift the broader market as earnings season begins.
Q4 is historically strong, averaging a 4.2% gain and rising more than 80% of the time. A negative Q1 followed by a 10%+ Q2 has never produced a down Q4, with an average return of about 6%.
Inflation remains hot despite PCE revisions: Core PCE is running about 3% year over year, market-based core inflation is two to three times its historical pace, and ISM prices indexes are at multi-year highs, pointing to an inflationary growth environment.
Fed hike odds for October fell from about 70% to roughly 20% after softer PCE data, light payrolls, and dovish Fed comments, though one more hike in December remains possible.
The labor market is healthier than the headline 29,000 payrolls suggest, with the prime-age employment-population ratio at 80.7%, low layoffs, and Challenger job cuts at their lowest September level since 2022.
Sentiment remains cautious near highs, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index in fear territory. The hosts view that lack of excitement as a net positive, and note that AI capex and profit growth are outweighing the drag from higher yields.

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and What Matters Now
0:31 — Steve Jobs Legacy and Apple’s Run
6:24 — Why Breadth Headlines Miss the Point
10:56 — Tech Concentration and Sector Damage
15:26 — Q4 Seasonality and Earnings Setup
20:11 — Yields Rising Credit Stress Global Moves
22:11 — Europe Debt Fears and Politics Inflation
27:29 — Sentiment Still Cautious Near Highs
32:39 — PCE Revisions Still Hot Inflation
42:09 — PMIs Say Demand Strong Prices Hot
45:00 — Fed Hike Odds Payrolls Yield Curve
54:58 — Final Takeaways and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 207 of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Rory Johnston, founder and CEO of Commodity Context, to make sense of an oil market that remains historically tight more than 200 days into the war with Iran. Rory explains why Brent sits near $108 with extreme backwardation, why roughly 13.5 million barrels a day are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz versus a pre-war normal of about 21 million, and why he calls himself a "Hormuz half-empty" kind of guy.
From there, the conversation turns to what Rory calls the "Beijing swing," as China cut net crude imports by about 5.5 million barrels a day, and to record-high diesel prices, including what a U.S. diesel export ban would mean for prices at the pump. The episode wraps with the market signals Rory watches that may indicate when the crisis is truly over: rising OECD inventories and the front of the crude curve flipping into contango.
Key Takeaways
Brent is near $108 with prompt spreads close to $8 a barrel, signaling an acute physical deficit even though Hormuz flows have recovered to about 13.5 million barrels a day, up from near zero for non-Iranian crude in March and April.
Rory argues Iran is gradually losing control of the strait, but the cost is enormous: Iraqi barrels have been discounted by $30 to $50, VLCC rates have hit record highs, and the war is far from over.
China cut net crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, and Rory believes drawdowns of strategic crude and diesel stockpiles, not just weak demand, explain much of that swing, making it inherently unsustainable.
Diesel remains the tightest part of the market, with roughly 2 million barrels a day lost from the Middle East and Russia, U.S. exports up about 50%, and diesel cracks running at several times normal levels.
A U.S. diesel export ban would lower domestic prices but send global diesel prices soaring and eventually force refinery run cuts. Rory expects a rationing of export licenses rather than a full ban.
In Rory’s opinion, the clearest signal the crisis is over would be OECD inventories rising and the front of major crude curves flipping into contango, which would show the supply deficit is truly behind us.

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and a Family Update
2:35 — Rory Johnston Returns and Reintroduces Himself
6:40 — From $200 Oil Fear to Reality
10:45 — What Tight Backwardation Is Signaling
14:55 — Hormuz Transit Data and Dark Tankers
25:10 — China Demand Swing and the Brent WTI Gap
38:15 — Why the War Keeps Dragging On
42:10 — Diesel Shortage and Export Ban Math
47:55 — The Cleanest Signal the Crisis Ends
50:15 — Where to Follow Rory and Final Thanks
Rory Johnson is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC.
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In Episode 206 of the Facts vs Feelings Podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, dig into the Mag 7's surge to a new all-time high, edging out the S&P 500 itself. The hosts point to Meta's blockbuster rally, up double digits on the back of a new AI agent that's been downloaded nearly a million times in less than a week, along with chip and semiconductor names like AMD, Intel, and Arm Holdings that all posted big gains as the AI capex story keeps accelerating. They discuss why tech and communication services are carrying the index while breadth complaints miss the bigger picture, and why the S&P 500 grinding sideways for weeks before a sharp move is a bullish, not bearish, signal.
From there, the conversation turns to the Fed. Ryan and Sonu revisit last week's rate hike and dot plot, making the case that despite the headlines calling it hawkish, the underlying numbers, real policy rates, dot plot math, and a lack of any hawkish commentary on AI capex actually point to a more dovish stance than markets are pricing in. They also cover Bitcoin's breakout past $85,000, why the failed Clarity Act may be a hidden positive for crypto, and a batch of strong economic data: retail sales beating expectations, jobless claims at multi-year lows, and S&P 500 revenue growth being driven almost entirely by technology.
The episode wraps with a look at extreme bearish sentiment readings despite a resilient market, and why that combination has historically set up strong seasonal rallies into Q4.
[Key Takeaways]
The Magnificent 7 hit a new all-time high and is now outperforming the S&P 500 on both a price and relative basis, fueled largely by Meta's double-digit rally after the launch of a new AI agent downloaded nearly 900,000 times in six days.
Chip and hardware names surged alongside Meta's news, underscoring how AI capex spending continues to ripple through the semiconductor supply chain.
Despite a 12-0 vote to hike rates and a dot plot showing one more hike projected for 2026, the hosts argue the Fed's own real policy rate and GDP/inflation projections actually point to a more dovish stance than the market is pricing in.
Retail sales came in well above expectations (1.1% vs. 0.8%), core retail sales rose 5% annualized over the last three months, and jobless claims hit their lowest non-seasonally adjusted level since 2022, pointing to a resilient consumer and labor market.
Bitcoin broke above $85,000 following the Fed meeting, and the hosts argue the failed Clarity Act may actually be bullish for crypto by keeping it outside mainstream finance and regulatory scrutiny.

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the Setup
1:15 — Mag 7 Retakes Leadership
6:35 — Meta’s AI Agent Sparks a Surge
11:20 — Breadth Complaints Versus Reality
15:05 — Fed Overhang and Market Calm
20:30 — Seasonality Fears and Sentiment Signals
27:30 — Yields, Inflationary Growth, AI Spending
31:35 — Bitcoin Breakout and Risk-On Clues
37:15 — Was the Fed Really Hawkish
45:00 — Dot Plot Math and Real Rates
52:05 — Revenue Growth Story Led by Tech
55:10 — Retail Sales Show Consumer Strength
56:50 — Jobless Claims and a Firm Labor Market
57:00 — Final Takeaways and Signoff

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

The Social Hour is back after a summer break, and this livestream edition came loaded. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by two technical analysis heavyweights: Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and CNBC contributor, and Scott Brown, Founder and Strategist at Brown Technical Insights.
Fair warning: Scott was cheerfully reminded he was the (second? fifth?) choice to fill in for CNBC anchor Morgan Brennan, Sonu showed up with a Negroni, Jay was stuck with a Dunkin' iced coffee until the closing bell, and Ryan told the story of how he lost a rental car key and somehow got $200 off the bill. But in between? Plenty of substance.
They dig into the Fed's recent hike and the dot plot, with Sonu making the case that this Fed is still dovish and Jay pointing to the war, oil, and the White House as the X-factors no one can quantify. Scott and Jay walk through what the charts are saying: weakening breadth, Dow Theory divergences, key S&P 500 support levels, and a consumer discretionary sector that's cracking. They also cover the bull case for Q4 (seasonality, credit holding up, Mag 7 turning up), the AI capex boom and what would signal it's over, Bitcoin and gold setups, oil's next target, and how election-year politics could hit the AI buildout.
Key Takeaways:
The Fed hiked: A unanimous vote, with most officials penciling in at least one more quarter-point increase by year-end
Still dovish? Sonu argues that with core PCE forecasts up 100 bps, unemployment lower, and inflation not back to 2% until 2029, this Fed isn't really hawkish
The X factor: Jay flags the war, oil and diesel prices, and White House volatility heading into the midterms
Breadth is deteriorating: Only 49% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, and the advance-decline line is rolling over
Dow Theory warning: Industrials and transports aren't confirming the S&P 500, which sits just 3.5% off its highs
Consumer discretionary under pressure: Relative weakness vs. staples and energy is a key concern

Jump to:
0:00 — Disclosures and Quick Reset
0:43 — Social Hour Returns with Drinks
5:25 — Fed Takeaways and Dot Plot Signal
12:50 — Why The Fed Still Looks Dovish
15:40 — War, Oil, and the Political Wildcard
18:37 — Breadth Weakness and Sector Stress
22:31 — Dow Theory Divergences Explained
25:49 — A Rental Car Story and Mag 7
29:52 — Bitcoin and Gold as Market Tell
34:32 — Portfolio Reality and Promo Break
44:05 — Tech Dominance and AI Capex Boom
53:17 — Oil Targets, Yields, and Election Risk
59:30 — Key Takeaways and Next Livestream

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jay Woods:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-woods-cmt-5972679/
• X: https://x.com/JayWoods3

Connect with Scott Brown:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/
• X: https://x.com/scottcharts

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com