Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data.
The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most.
Key Takeaways:
• Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week
 • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data
 • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns
 • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions
 • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle

Jump to:
0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter
2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets
5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth
11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts
16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries
22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom
27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech
31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders
37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality
44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data
50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore
56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs.
From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle.
Key Takeaways:
AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentals
Valuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations rise
Capex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflation
Global leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacaps
Volatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reaction
Jump to:
0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks
1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns
3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff
7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk
12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race
18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment
25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens
30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones
34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math
39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30.
They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way.
Jump to:
0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter
3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc
12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy
20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation
31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History
40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk
45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership
53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity
1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value. 
It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise.
Key Takeaways:
Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee 
Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates 
Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends 
Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves 
Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotates
Jump to:
0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data
1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh
4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record
9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality
14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged
19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing
25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely
31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle
36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates
41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January
46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets.
They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect.
Key Takeaways:
 • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection
 • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks
 • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%
 • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers
 • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves
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Jump to:
0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes
2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained
8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation
14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold
19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets
23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up
30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different
38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds
42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth
48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk
53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]