Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.
The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.
From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.
Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.
SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.
At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.
A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.
Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question
1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally
10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders
14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check
15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates
20:48 — Google funds AI data centers
26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats
29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes
43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

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In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect.
It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top.
Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for.
Key Takeaways:
Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.
Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.
Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.
Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.
Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.
Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going

Jump to:
3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices
6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate
8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals
13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows
21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches
25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership
33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak
37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks
45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings
48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching
50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details
54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks
1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.
When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.
From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.
Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.
The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.
Key Takeaways:
The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.
AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.
S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.
The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.
The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?
6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair
13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data
21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice
34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash
43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending
49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?
The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.
From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.
Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.
Key Takeaways:
Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.
The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.
AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.
The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.
The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.
The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question
2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes
6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment
10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons
15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps
22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals
33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks
41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break
49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn
54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.
The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.
From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.
Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.
Key Takeaways:
"Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch
1:37 — Sell in May Reframed
6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality
10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months
14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness
22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist
35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices
44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift
50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks
53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jeff:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/
• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]