Macro Minutes

The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July.
Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings.
Participants:
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May.
Participants:
Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates Strategy
Mary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters.
Participants:
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canadian Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook.
Participants:
Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts