Macro Mondays

Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 
02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France
04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking?
05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup
07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones
08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall?
09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI
11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point
14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx?
15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War?
20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade
21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound

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#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 2026
00:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question 
02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s?
05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis
07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War
10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout?
14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow?
17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk?
20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy
26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion?
29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch
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Apologies for the late upload!

We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit.
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether markets are beginning to resemble the setup we saw in March. With the Fed having hiked, yields elevated, and oil moving lower, are the conditions falling into place for another leg higher? They also unpack the new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement and what it means for the shifting geopolitical picture in the Arctic, before diving into the recent crypto rally to see whether it really has legs.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 
00:22 - Crypto Is Ripping: Should Investors Rotate Out of AI?
03:05 - What’s Really Driving the Crypto Rally?
04:31 - Why AI and Crypto Could Work Together in the Agent Economy
08:23 - Why Markets Are Starting to Look Like March and April Again
11:47 - Trump-Xi Summit: Chips, China, and the Next Trade-War Test
15:20 - South Korea Exports Surge as the Semiconductor Boom Reaccelerates
18:09 - Greenland Deal: What the US, Denmark, and NATO Actually Got
22:08 - Semiconductors vs Gold vs Crypto: The Best Q4 Setups
23:43 - Iran, Hormuz, and Why We May Be Past Peak Escalation

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket 
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! 

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 
00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes
02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?
05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs
09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?
11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?
15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely
17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock
20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst
22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike
24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?
25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade
27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno
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