On The Market

For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.



Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.



If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?



We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.

In This Episode We Cover

Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”

Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability

The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply

Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply

Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?

Decennial Census Data

Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!

We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?

Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.

Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.

In This Episode We Cover

Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry

The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge

The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts

The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past

Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

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On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy



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8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.

After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.

James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?

Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)

Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario

How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit

It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?

Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.

The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.

Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions and price cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.

So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?

In This Episode We Cover

Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow

Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports

The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options

The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure

How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Calculated Risk Blog

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, but did it actually help the housing market? Our panel of real estate investing experts isn’t all that bummed by potentially higher rates and less housing market activity—why? Because new opportunities are forming thanks to the Fed’s recent rate hike—opportunities that could make deals even better to buy in 2026 and into 2027.

We’re back discussing the biggest housing market headlines from last week. Obviously, we can’t talk about headlines without touching on the Fed meeting and subsequent rate hike. Ripples from that decision could start showing up in the real estate market soon—price cuts for some properties, canceled listings for others, and stalled sellers who refuse to budge but won’t get bids.

So, what should investors do now to ensure they’re picking up solid deals with the likelihood that prices could continue dropping across many markets? The full panel is sharing what they’re actually doing now—from paying points to cutting insurance costs, getting HELOCs ready, and more.

You can use this market to your advantage—and we already are.

In This Episode We Cover

The aftermath of the first Fed rate hike since 2023 (and what it means for home prices)

Trump's 1% federal funds rate demand and whether it could actually happen

Will sellers begin pulling out of the market as buyers begin to drop off?

What we’re doing right now to buy better deals and sell the ones that aren’t performing

The things that must be solved before interest rates can come back down

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Quartz: Trump demands 1% interest rates after Fed hike, backs Warsh

Reuters: US homebuilder sentiment drops to 12-month low in September

Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker

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