On The Market

Something is brewing at the Federal Reserve, and it’s starting to get ugly.

 

For many months, President Trump has been pressuring the Fed to lower the federal funds rate and has since named a new Fed chair nominee to take the reins after Jerome Powell's term ends. But what seemed like a straightforward transition has quickly evolved into a nasty political showdown—a “standoff” between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Senate Banking Committee.

 

The drama could drag out for months, with Powell’s investigation being prolonged and nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation being delayed.

 

But behind all of it, there’s a much more serious issue being threatened:

 

Fed independence.

 

The Federal Reserve’s ability to act independently of political influences is crucial for creating monetary policy in the best long-term interest of the country, and it’s being jeopardized.

 

For investors, this isn’t just political theater—it’s a signal. If markets lose faith in the Fed’s independence, the ripple effect could reshape not just interest rates, mortgage rates, and the housing market, but the entire U.S. economy. And it’s unfolding right now.

In This Episode We Cover

What happens when the Federal Reserve loses its “independence”

Why the current Fed power struggle affects much more than mortgage rates

The “battle” that is holding up new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh’s nomination

Why the Federal Reserve’s hands are tied when it comes to cutting interest rates

Behind the “drama” unfolding between the Senate Banking Committee and the DOJ

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1266 – The War Has Changed the Housing Market | April 2026 Update

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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For years, we’ve been promised that a “tsunami” of homes would hit the market as Baby Boomers age, move into senior housing, and pass away. We’ve been waiting…and waiting, but we’re still millions of housing units short. Yet, even without a “silver tsunami,” another trend could push us toward a housing supply glut in the future—new builds.

Builder sentiment has dropped to a seven-month low. Homes are sitting empty, huge concessions are being offered, but the buyers are few and far between. Longer absorption periods mean higher holding costs for builders, prompting larger incentives to sell these homes. But, with mortgage rates bouncing back up to the mid-six percent range, who wants to buy? Very few Americans, and that’s the problem.

Between Baby Boomers slowly trickling inventory into the housing market and builders creating more supply than (financeable) demand, is this the tipping point where we go from an undersupplied to an oversupplied housing market? In this headline episode, we’re getting into it, plus a “ban” on one of America’s hottest real estate assets. 

In This Episode We Cover

Is the silver tsunami ever going to hit? Why Baby Boomer homes aren’t reaching the market

Where home prices have the highest chance of falling if the Baby Boomer supply hits the market

The major opportunity for real estate investors to pick up seriously discounted new-build homes

A new real estate asset “ban” that’s affecting over 15 states in the country

Will we flip from a housing deficit to oversupply?

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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On the Market 403 - You Have Until 2031: What Happens When Population Starts to Decline?

Calculated Risk

Reuters: US home builder sentiment drops to seven-month low in April, NAHB survey says

WSJ: America’s Self-Storage Craze Has Reached a Tipping Point

Associated Press: The US is short 10 million houses. A new White House report lays out a blueprint to fix that

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This could have profound effects on the housing market, and if you work or invest in real estate, you need to know what's coming next.

Energy shocks, high inflation, new job numbers, the worst consumer sentiment in 70 years…it’s all hitting us in a single week, and the housing market is already reacting. After months of affordability gains, mortgage rates jumped back to 6.4% in response to the oil price spike and, by proxy, high inflation readings. The Fed has already made the bulk of its rate cuts, so is there any room left for interest rates to go down?

Home sales are already slowing, and consumers are feeling the worst about the economy in 70 years. This will impact the housing market, and it’s not good news for agents, brokers, lenders, or anyone involved in transactions. But for investors, we’re being given yet another opportunity to buy deals…and the discounts could be getting deeper. 

The window to act is widening even more. Here's how to position yourself before it closes.

In This Episode We Cover

New inflation rate readings and why the CPI rose close to 1% in just a month

Mortgage rates are stuck: why they can’t fall much more, even with a new Fed chair

Latest home sales data that shows how the housing market is already reacting

Why more and more investors are getting pessimistic about the housing market

Will home prices crash? Here’s what’s holding them stable right now

What investors need to do to prepare themselves right now to get better deals

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

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Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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Could today’s weak housing markets become tomorrow’s winners? One particular real estate demand “cycle” says that it’s more than possible. Everyone has written off real estate markets where inventory has risen, prices have dropped (substantially), and migration has slowed. But what happens when the pendulum swings in the other direction, and these dead markets return to life?

ResiClub’s Lance Lambert joins us to get into all things supply, demand, and most importantly—inventory. According to Lance, we’re in the 25th percentile for weak housing markets, and one certain variable could increase our risk significantly, and it’s not getting much better. A “catalyst for risk” could push demand down even more, stunting already suffering housing markets. But there is hope. 

Domestic and international migration surged post-pandemic but has come to a standstill in the past few years. When this migration “cycle” restarts, certain states, especially those with the weakest housing markets right now, could benefit. And if mortgage rates lower again, breaking more of the “lock-in effect,” the market could change quickly. But which markets could “swing up” the fastest? 

In This Episode We Cover

A real “catalyst for risk” that could cause an even weaker housing market 

The states that could see the biggest boosts once domestic and international migration return 

Investors: This is a sign that you should make an aggressive offer on a property 

Good news for interest rates? A “considerable improvement” in this key metric 

Why inventory is stabilizing in the hardest hit housing markets 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think

ResiClub

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Property taxes: banned. 

There are now more than a dozen states across the country seeking to limit, reduce, or outright eliminate property taxes—and the support behind the efforts is growing. As property taxes explode across the U.S., homeowners are facing an average 30% increase, curbing affordability efforts. As a result, Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Texas, and other states are considering banning or heavily restricting property taxes.

Today, we’re getting into the Great Property Tax Revolt of 2026.

There are five types of property tax bills being proposed: assessment limitations, levy caps, homestead exemptions, credits and reductions, and tax swaps. These new property tax proposals could save homeowners thousands of dollars per year, but the side effects on local government budgets could be substantial. If we don’t have property taxes funding local services, what will?

We’ll get into all of it and the top states’ proposals for eliminating or limiting property taxes. One often-overlooked state is funding its property tax elimination without any extra cost to homeowners. How will it work? And if primary homeowners get property tax breaks, will investors have to fill in the gaps with higher taxes? This is what could happen next. 

In This Episode We Cover

Two states that could soon completely eliminate property taxes for primary residences 

The downside of lower (or no) property taxes: will other taxes jump as a result?

What could happen to property values if your state decides to eliminate property taxes

How property tax bans will affect real estate investors (will your tax bill go up or down?)

Why property taxes have exploded 30% (and whether new assessments could push them higher) 

States with the highest (and lowest) property tax rates in 2026 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

⁠Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise⁠

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⁠Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets⁠

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⁠Property Manager Finder⁠

On the Market 404 - 75,000 “Relistings” Could Hit the Market, But Inventory WON’T Explode? w/Mike Simonsen

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: How higher property taxes increase home affordability

⁠Dave's BiggerPockets Profile⁠

⁠Grab Dave’s Book, "Start with Strategy"

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