On The Market

Is there any relief coming next year for mortgage rates? According to Fannie Mae’s new 2027 mortgage rate prediction…it’s not looking too good. Previous mortgage rate forecasts predicted 6.7% rates throughout 2027. But with inflation running rampant again, a low-rate future looks less and less likely.

It’s already getting cold, and the housing market is starting to freeze in more ways than one. The latest inflation numbers were an unpleasant surprise—hotter-than-expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) and producer prices rising beyond expectations. The result? Higher mortgage rates, arguably locked in for longer. And the Fed can’t fix this one.

Buyers are dropping off in major markets, but sellers aren’t seeing it clearly. With inventory down, some sellers are getting hopeful that there are fewer houses to choose from…but not when pending sales are down double digits. Finally, we’ll touch on the housing market crash that already happened, and how everyone missed it.

In This Episode We Cover

Newest inflation numbers and whether they will force something to “break”

Fannie Mae’s updated mortgage rate forecast (any hope for lower rates?)

Sellers are getting the wrong signals: Why declining inventory may not be a good thing for them

The housing market collapse that already happened (and almost nobody noticed)

Go give someone a big tip this week; it’s getting hard out there for average Americans!

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Get Tickets to the BiggerPockets “Live From Phoenix” Bootcamp!

Reuters: US producer prices post largest gain in 4-1/2 years; expensive gasoline boosts retail sales

Scotsman Guide: Fannie Mae just tore up its 2027 mortgage forecast

HousingWire: Why falling housing inventory is sending sellers the wrong signal

eXp Realty: AGNT CEO Leo Pareja Says the Housing Market Collapse “Already Happened”

Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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Pending home sales just hit their lowest level on record since the NAR started tracking them in 2001—and they fell in all 50 of the country's biggest metros. Winter hasn’t even begun yet, and we’re already seeing the massive effects of high mortgage rates, low affordability, and overall economic pessimism. And with inventory rising, it raises the question: how do we avoid housing-crash territory?

I made four key predictions a few months ago: transaction volume would fall, new listings would drop, inventory would rise, and home prices would flip negative (nominally). The dominoes are lined up, and the first three have already fallen—so what happens to home prices? Those betting on a housing crash are missing one key variable, and it’s the one thing that could keep us out of crash-style price cuts.

So I’m going through each data point to give you a clear look at why pending sales just hit the lowest level since record-keeping began, why inventory is rising while seller numbers aren't, and why home prices will begin to fall, but not to the levels you think.

In This Episode We Cover

What’s causing the dramatic lack of demand in the housing market (and why it may not get better)

Will our rising inventory eventually lead to a price crash?

Why sellers aren’t going to be forced to sell their homes at rock-bottom prices

The two factors that could cause mortgage rates to fall (or rise even more)

Why I’m still analyzing deals even as price drops don’t look like they’re stopping

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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This economy is…confusing. Inflation is still high, AI is disrupting the labor market, and consumer sentiment is nearing a 70-year floor. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps climbing, and unemployment remains around historic lows. So, what’s really happening? Are we in the clear, or is something big about to break?



J Scott is back to share his thoughts on the state of the economy and the warning signs investors can’t afford to ignore. The Fed seems to have lost much of its influence over interest rates, and bond investors aren’t buying the rhetoric that this bout of inflation is short-term. In the housing market, supply and demand have fallen, bringing transactions to a standstill—all while pre-foreclosures are slowly rising.



And that’s just the beginning. Everyone’s got one eye on AI, the wild card that could send everything spiraling. We’re unpacking the three factors that will cause the next recession, what the next six months could look like, and how investors can prepare their real estate portfolios for what comes next.

In This Episode We Cover

J Scott’s short- and long-term economic forecast

The three factors that will cause the next global recession

Why even the “strong” stock market and job market feel unstable

Where interest rates could be headed in the coming months

Why more distress is on the table for residential real estate

How real estate investors can best prepare for an economic downturn

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break

J Scott's BiggerPockets Profile

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Real Estate by the Numbers

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The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper.

We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong.

If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this.

In This Episode We Cover

The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem

The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages

America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation

Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy

Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses

The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending

What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Property Manager Finder

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-471.

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Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot.

So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go?

He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market.

But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon.

Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit.

In This Episode We Cover

Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming)

Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples

The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop

Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not

What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Property Manager Finder

On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run

Brian's BiggerPockets Profile

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Praxis Capital

Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor

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