On The Market

There’s a ticking time bomb for the U.S. housing market that nobody is talking about. It’s the biggest existential threat to home prices and housing demand, and it (arguably) can’t be stopped. The question is, how long do we have until it happens?

Today, we’re talking about population: what happens when the U.S. population begins to decline, and the need for housing falls year after year? Deaths are already set to outpace births by 2031, meaning we’re just five short years away from this risky scenario becoming reality. What happens to home prices? Will millions of homes sit empty? Which markets will see their values fall the fastest? Is real estate still safe to invest in?

Dave’s giving a masterclass on the population crisis, and how the housing market will be affected. From birth rates to immigration, baby boomers passing away (and passing down their houses), and cities that will face the biggest demographic headwinds, this is what every investor needs to know before 2031. 

In This Episode We Cover

What happens to the housing market once the population begins to decline?

Will our housing shortage flip to a supply glut as demand is forced to fall?

The one thing propping up our population and how it’s starting to falter

Short, medium, and long-term housing forecasts as population decline increases

Lessons from Japan, Germany, and Italy: Where do home prices fall the fastest once populations decline?

Markets that will be the safest when the population finally begins to flip

And So Much More!

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U.S. Immigration Crisis: What It Really Means for Housing Markets and Investors

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Many of President Trump’s tariffs have been canceled—and the housing market could stand to benefit. Could this be yet another sign that inflation is slowing and that mortgage rates can continue to fall? 

This is big news for the housing market, but it’s not even the biggest news of this episode.

Today, we’re going over everything you may have missed. From the Supreme Court striking down tariffs in a majority vote to a major housing bill moving forward, to cities seeing the most new corporate headquarters (a serious sign of job growth), we’ve been busy taking stock of the stories affecting investors.

We’ll get into how the tariff reversal will affect prices and mortgage rates (this may be great news), the new housing law that could make building, renovating, and financing even easier, Trump’s new “tokenized” real estate investments, and the markets that may see the biggest booms as jobs flood these areas.

In This Episode We Cover

Tariffs canceled: a win for the housing market as inflation risk reduces?

The new housing supply and affordability bill that could pass the Senate soon

The cities that are gaining (and losing) corporate headquarters (some are not so obvious)

Would you invest in Trump’s “tokenized” real estate investment? The “crypto for real estate” push continues

Will tariffs be returned to American citizens who paid them? One Supreme Court justice gives his honest take

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 399 - Buying (and Building) Houses Could Get a LOT Easier

WSJ: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs

NAR: Bipartisan Housing Bill Passes House of Representatives

BI: A crypto firm with ties to Trump will 'tokenize' some of the president's real estate empire

Visual Capitalist: The U.S. Cities Gaining and Losing Corporate HQs

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Big economic news dropped last week: labor data, inflation rates, and huge jobs revisions. All of these are already impacting the housing market, but could new numbers cause an even greater shift that could affect your mortgage rate, your rents, and your next deal?

Rental property owners, agents, sellers, and buyers: this news affects what you’re doing right now. New labor data beat the odds, with a surprising amount of hirings. But, with many of those hirings concentrated in a few specific fields, investors in markets with this line of work will need to watch carefully. And it wasn’t all good news—the largest jobs number revision in over a decade happened last week. The number of overreported jobs? It changes the picture entirely.

A strong labor market could mean stagnant mortgage rates, but inflation data might just come in to save the day. With lower inflation readings, could the Fed get the confidence to cut once again? 

Finally, we’ll talk about exactly which types of homes will sell and which will stagnate on the market. One type of property is flying off the proverbial shelf, so if you can build, renovate, or rent it, you could be in luck. For the rest of investors, Dave has some cautious words of wisdom that could save you if this economic trend continues.

In This Episode We Cover

Off by nearly 1,000,000 jobs: Inside the largest jobs number revision in over a decade 

New inflation rate readings and whether we’re trending in the right direction

More moves for mortgage rates? Positive data that could tip them a bit lower

The one type of housing that has high demand, even as consumer sentiment stays low

Why you either feel phenomenal or terrible about the U.S. economy 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

BiggerPockets Real Estate - 1229 - Scott Trench’s $1,000,000 Bet on Real Estate (Update)

Grab the Book on "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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Rental property financing is becoming much easier. For years, seven and eight-percent rates made it brutal to make deals work. But now, things are changing—for the better.

Mortgage rates in the five-percent range? HELOCs with no closing costs? Seller concessions to buy down your interest rate, and a smoother path to affordable properties? It’s all culminating in 2026, and this could be one of the best years in recent memory to get a mortgage for a rental property. Today, we’re talking to Jeff Welgan, who's spent 22 years in the mortgage industry, and is bringing good news.

Thought those ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) loans were left behind in 2008? Safer, cheaper, and more flexible ARM loans are available to investors. With lower rates and longer fixed-rate periods, they could be the perfect option as mortgage rates continue to decline. Jeff also shares how you can get a HELOC with no closing costs, so you don’t have to give up that rock-bottom mortgage rate you secured in 2020. Plus, when to refinance, how low rates could go, and whether you still should buy down your rate in 2026.

In This Episode We Cover

Jeff’s 2026 mortgage rate prediction and the “range” he thinks rates will stay in

Are ARMs back? Why adjustable-rate mortgages are cheaper, safer, and better for investors

Should you pay down your interest rate? When Jeff says it is (and isn’t) worth it

Why the mortgage industry’s cycle is about to end, and investors must be careful 

Got a high mortgage rate? This is when you should think about refinancing

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1207 - 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: This “X Factor” Could Change Everything

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This could be the most important shift in the housing market in years.

Something truly remarkable just happened that will impact almost every facet of real estate. The “Housing for the 21st Century Act” just passed the House in a landslide vote, with bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans. But unlike past housing proposals, this one focuses on the thing that could actually fix the housing market for good—supply.

This could make building (and renovating) houses cheaper and faster, allow Americans to finance manufactured homes the same way we finance regular properties, expedite the permitting process for some new builds and rehabs, and give your local bank the ability to lend faster and easier than before.

In short, this bill has a significant impact not only on everyday homeowners but also on real estate investors. The question is, will this fix the housing supply problem we’ve been plagued with?

We’re digging into the six sections of this bill in today’s episode.

In This Episode We Cover

Why this new bill could be a monumental shift for the housing market 

Building just got even better—fewer permits, faster approvals, and more

A huge win for affordable housing that could streamline cheaper homes for many Americans

Will new supply kill appreciation? Why many investors are dead wrong about this

Work with local banks? This new bill could be hugely advantageous for you

Investors: do this now! How this bill will affect your investments once passed

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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On the Market 392 - Trump’s Housing Proposals Could Work, There’s Just One Big Problem

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