On The Market

Big economic news dropped last week: labor data, inflation rates, and huge jobs revisions. All of these are already impacting the housing market, but could new numbers cause an even greater shift that could affect your mortgage rate, your rents, and your next deal?

Rental property owners, agents, sellers, and buyers: this news affects what you’re doing right now. New labor data beat the odds, with a surprising amount of hirings. But, with many of those hirings concentrated in a few specific fields, investors in markets with this line of work will need to watch carefully. And it wasn’t all good news—the largest jobs number revision in over a decade happened last week. The number of overreported jobs? It changes the picture entirely.

A strong labor market could mean stagnant mortgage rates, but inflation data might just come in to save the day. With lower inflation readings, could the Fed get the confidence to cut once again? 

Finally, we’ll talk about exactly which types of homes will sell and which will stagnate on the market. One type of property is flying off the proverbial shelf, so if you can build, renovate, or rent it, you could be in luck. For the rest of investors, Dave has some cautious words of wisdom that could save you if this economic trend continues.

In This Episode We Cover

Off by nearly 1,000,000 jobs: Inside the largest jobs number revision in over a decade 

New inflation rate readings and whether we’re trending in the right direction

More moves for mortgage rates? Positive data that could tip them a bit lower

The one type of housing that has high demand, even as consumer sentiment stays low

Why you either feel phenomenal or terrible about the U.S. economy 

And So Much More!

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On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

BiggerPockets Real Estate - 1229 - Scott Trench’s $1,000,000 Bet on Real Estate (Update)

Grab the Book on "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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Rental property financing is becoming much easier. For years, seven and eight-percent rates made it brutal to make deals work. But now, things are changing—for the better.

Mortgage rates in the five-percent range? HELOCs with no closing costs? Seller concessions to buy down your interest rate, and a smoother path to affordable properties? It’s all culminating in 2026, and this could be one of the best years in recent memory to get a mortgage for a rental property. Today, we’re talking to Jeff Welgan, who's spent 22 years in the mortgage industry, and is bringing good news.

Thought those ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) loans were left behind in 2008? Safer, cheaper, and more flexible ARM loans are available to investors. With lower rates and longer fixed-rate periods, they could be the perfect option as mortgage rates continue to decline. Jeff also shares how you can get a HELOC with no closing costs, so you don’t have to give up that rock-bottom mortgage rate you secured in 2020. Plus, when to refinance, how low rates could go, and whether you still should buy down your rate in 2026.

In This Episode We Cover

Jeff’s 2026 mortgage rate prediction and the “range” he thinks rates will stay in

Are ARMs back? Why adjustable-rate mortgages are cheaper, safer, and better for investors

Should you pay down your interest rate? When Jeff says it is (and isn’t) worth it

Why the mortgage industry’s cycle is about to end, and investors must be careful 

Got a high mortgage rate? This is when you should think about refinancing

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1207 - 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: This “X Factor” Could Change Everything

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Work with Jeff

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This could be the most important shift in the housing market in years.

Something truly remarkable just happened that will impact almost every facet of real estate. The “Housing for the 21st Century Act” just passed the House in a landslide vote, with bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans. But unlike past housing proposals, this one focuses on the thing that could actually fix the housing market for good—supply.

This could make building (and renovating) houses cheaper and faster, allow Americans to finance manufactured homes the same way we finance regular properties, expedite the permitting process for some new builds and rehabs, and give your local bank the ability to lend faster and easier than before.

In short, this bill has a significant impact not only on everyday homeowners but also on real estate investors. The question is, will this fix the housing supply problem we’ve been plagued with?

We’re digging into the six sections of this bill in today’s episode.

In This Episode We Cover

Why this new bill could be a monumental shift for the housing market 

Building just got even better—fewer permits, faster approvals, and more

A huge win for affordable housing that could streamline cheaper homes for many Americans

Will new supply kill appreciation? Why many investors are dead wrong about this

Work with local banks? This new bill could be hugely advantageous for you

Investors: do this now! How this bill will affect your investments once passed

And So Much More!

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On the Market 392 - Trump’s Housing Proposals Could Work, There’s Just One Big Problem

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The “lock-in effect” is finally starting to break, and Americans are moving yet again. But, where are they going? The top cities people are moving to aren’t what you’d expect—in fact, many of them are where prices are actively falling. Is now the time to buy as populations grow and homes remain affordable?

Three major housing market shifts are unfolding this week, and we're breaking them all down on this week's headlines episode. First, is the lock-in effect finally over? Before, the housing market was at a standstill, as homeowners with 3% mortgage rates refused even to consider selling. Now, after years of high rates slowly getting better, the tables have turned. Sellers are more willing to let their property go and tap into that huge pile of equity, but will this actually affect inventory? 

Then, the 2026 U-Haul Growth Index—where are people moving right now? The top metros and states could surprise you, as many of them have falling home prices. Finally, is housing inventory getting worse? It felt for a while that buyers had their pick, but now, the trend is starting to reverse, and sellers may gain even more control. 

In This Episode We Cover

U-Haul’s top in-migration cities, metros, and states 

The end of the lock-in effect? Why homeowners aren’t staying put to keep their low rate

This city's job market is “on fire” and seeing a strong influx of residents

Did housing inventory growth already reverse? Why sellers are finally getting fast offers

Signs to buy during a correction: cities that are growing but seeing lower home prices 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dallas-Fort Worth Remains Projected as the Top Housing Market For the Second Year in a Row

Fortune: ‘Something big’ just happened in the U.S. housing market 

U-Haul Growth Index

Realtor: Inventory Gains Slow Down in January

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Henry’s Book, "Real Estate Deal Maker"

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A new Fed Chair has been nominated—and he could do what no Fed has done before.

Kevin Warsh, the youngest Fed governor appointed, serving during the Great Financial Crisis, is Trump’s new pick, and his decisions could have major impacts on the housing market. But the mainstream media is missing a few key variables, falsely assuming that Warsh will kick off a series of rate cuts that end in lower interest rates.

But, in reality, something completely different could happen—something that the Fed has never tried before.

Warsh has strong opinions on quantitative easing (money printing) and wants to, in essence, delete some of the money the Fed has created over years of buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities. At the same time, Warsh will most likely push for rate cuts—a challenge given the Fed’s divided members.

So, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Could we see rates actually rise due to Warsh’s plans, or could ending quantitative easing boost market confidence and lower long-term mortgage rates? We’re getting into it all, plus what investors should do now regardless of what the Fed’s next moves are.

In This Episode We Cover

Trump’s new Federal Reserve Chair pick and why Trump is so keen to kick Powell out

Higher mortgage rates incoming? What everyone is getting wrong about the Warsh pick

The end of money printing: Why the new Fed Chair pick wants to delete dollars off the balance sheet

Something the Fed has never done before: Can you lower rates while keeping inflation in check?

The one type of real estate that could greatly benefit from the moves Warsh will make

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE 

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

A New Fed Chairman is Coming Soon—Here’s What Their Potential Low-Rate Policy Will Mean For Investors

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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