On The Market

The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?

I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover.

So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable?

I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction.

If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck.

In This Episode We Cover

Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels

The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move

Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level

Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments?

Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

NAR Housing Affordability Index

Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?

We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress.

Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair.

In This Episode We Cover

The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs

The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house

A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high

The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals

A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor

Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low

Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate

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America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”

No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic.

So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do?

Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it.

You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it.

In This Episode We Cover

America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more

The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years

Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion

Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains

The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.



Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.



If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?



We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.

In This Episode We Cover

Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”

Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability

The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply

Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply

Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?

Decennial Census Data

Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!

We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?

Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.

Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.

In This Episode We Cover

Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry

The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge

The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts

The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past

Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate

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Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy



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