On The Market

A $3 trillion market is beginning to crack. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has sounded off, saying there are “cockroaches” in the system. Investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the market, and real estate could be affected in a massive way.

This is the private credit crisis explained. 

When big investors go to buy or build, they don’t always take money from a bank; instead, they get loans from the private credit market—lenders who operate outside of the traditional lending apparatus. But over the past four years, commercial real estate has seen values tank, income drop, and demand shrink for everything from office to multifamily and more. And the people who lend their money to private credit are starting to get nervous.

Billions of dollars have already been pulled out of the market, with many investors going on “bank run” style withdrawal sprees. But, this isn’t only a commercial real estate problem—residential real estate could be affected if enough money leaves the systems.

So what happens next? Will real estate prices fall even further as a result? Are we on the brink of a credit crisis mirroring the 2008 subprime bubble? We’re breaking it all down in this episode. 

In This Episode We Cover

Private credit explained: who’s lending the money and what is being leveraged

“Cracks” begin to form, and why investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the system

Riskier commercial real estate debt that could trigger a “debt spiral” of serious proportions

Why residential real estate is not completely safe if commercial real estate starts to fall further

The one thing worrying experts the most about this hidden credit crisis

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 410 - The First Domino? Investors Pull Billions as Real Estate Bank Runs Return

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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Investors are pulling billions of dollars (yes, billions) out of real estate investments at a record pace as “bank run” style withdrawals return. Blackstone has already seen record withdrawal requests of over $3 billion. Could this be the first domino to fall that could set off a private credit crisis, pulling multifamily prices down even more? 

We’re back with this week’s biggest headlines—from mortgage rates rising back to six-month highs to corporate headquarters being converted into housing—there’s almost too much to talk about happening in the housing market. First, mortgage interest rates flip as buyers get pushed back out of the market, but this could lead to even bigger discounts for investors. 

A lonely corporate headquarters building gets greenlit for conversion to housing. If this trend continues, we could see relief in housing supply strain. Investors pull a record amount of money from real estate investments—just as commercial real estate needs it most (this will have consequences). Finally, the “millionaire tax” makes its way through one state—and it could kill one type of real estate investing. 

In This Episode We Cover

Investors go on a bank run—why they’re pulling billions of dollars from investments

Mortgage rates boomerang back to around 6.5%, but investor deals could get even better

The newest housing inventory opportunity and how to make a CEO’s office your new living room

The millionaire tax is kicking profitable investors out of this popular market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1207 - 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: This “X Factor” Could Change Everything

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Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

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NewsTimes: 200 apartments floated at Duracell’s ‘gorgeous’ former world HQ in Bethel as workforce shrinks to 20

Ken McElroy: The Liquidity Problem No One Is Talking About

Homes.com: As Washington 'millionaires tax' heads to governor, some agents see homeowners list

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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A “structural shift” is happening in the housing market—one that will permanently change how home prices appreciate. We could be experiencing the last era of steady, rising home prices as we enter into a new reality—a reality without Baby Boomers owning real estate.

For years, a “silver tsunami” has been predicted to “crash” the housing market. With Baby Boomers downsizing, aging in place, and passing away, the inevitable wave of inventory was supposed to hit the housing market with fury—but it hasn’t happened, at least not yet. With the average Baby Boomer now in their 70s, surely we should start to see inventory fly on the market…right?

Today, we’re getting into when (and if) the silver tsunami will hit, why the end of the Baby Boomer generation could change the home price growth trajectory permanently, and what will unfold in the 2030s (and beyond) that could cause serious headwinds in the housing market. But if it all comes true, investors will have the opportunity of a lifetime to get something many have assumed is gone—cash flow.

In This Episode We Cover

The “silver tsunami” explained, and why it hasn’t crashed the housing market

Inheritance begins to peak—how many heirs will keep vs. sell their parents’ homes?

The “structural shift” that could change home price appreciation forever 

Just how much of the housing market Baby Boomers own (it’s a LOT)

The return of cash flow? Why real estate investors will get another opportunity to buy

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 403 - You Have Until 2031: What Happens When Population Goes Negative?

On the Market 404 - 75,000 “Relistings” Could Hit the Market, But Inventory WON’T Explode?

On the Market 408 - Melody Wright’s Honest Take On the “Worse Than 2008” Crash Claim

Real Estate by the Numbers

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A housing price correction “worse than 2008”? That’s the headline of Melody Wright’s widely-cited Newsweek interview, but today, she’s giving her full, honest take on what she really meant.

Melody got into the mortgage industry in 2006, riding the subprime wave up until it popped two years later. The lender she worked for went bankrupt in 2012, as Melody witnessed the fallout firsthand. From there, her new job became analyzing housing data to ensure this never happened again. And looking at the data—delinquencies rising, inventory spiking, a quiet “credit crisis” rarely talked about—Melody believes we could be on the verge of another serious correction.

Today, we’re getting her detailed opinion on whether we should expect a housing crash, correction, or a slow, stable return to affordability. We talk at length about the rising delinquency rates (much of which is not public) signaling serious trouble for the housing market and borrowers, and the “credit crisis” brewing behind the scenes that could upend the market (especially for investors).

This is what Melody Wright really thinks will happen next.

In This Episode We Cover

Melody’s real opinion on the “Worse Than 2008” claim 

Why Melody believes home prices could correct up to 50% in some markets

The “credit crisis” brewing that uncovers a very weak homebuyer pool

Delayed delinquency? Why more borrowers are beginning to inch closer to losing their homes

The white-collar recession that will have serious effects on pricey real estate markets

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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On the Market 407 - The White-Collar Recession Means More for Real Estate Than You Think

Newsweek Price Correction ‘Worse Than 2008’ Coming To US Housing Market—Analyst

Reuters JPMorgan marks down value of loan portfolios of some private credit groups, source says

Realtor Housing Market Tilts in Favor of Buyers as Active Inventory Climbs

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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The next recession is already here. You may not see it, but you definitely feel it. Companies are quietly letting go of dozens or hundreds of workers at a time, interviews are getting harder to land, and those around you who made the most money are suddenly just trying to get by.

This is the “white collar recession”—and a new report could prove that it’s about to get much more severe. And what happens when the highest earners, those who buy homes and can get approved for mortgages, suddenly vanish from the housing market? The impacts could be widespread, and a permanent shift in real estate could be on the horizon.

Today, we’re unpacking it all—which jobs are most (and least) at risk, what will happen to the housing market as high-income earners lose their salaries (and ability to buy homes), and the markets most reliant on these types of white-collar jobs.

But it’s not all bad news. New opportunities could be emerging in select markets as a few major industries see stability, and one type of investment property becomes the most sought-after of all.

In This Episode We Cover

The “white collar recession” and the jobs most at risk due to AI

Why this time it’s different, and a recession may be inevitable 

How the housing market will permanently shift as homebuyers lose their income

The most stable housing markets with the best employment potential

One type of investment property every investor needs to keep an eye on (demand could rise)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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On The Market 401 - Off by Nearly 1 MILLION Jobs? Why New Jobs Report Will Impact Real Estate 

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Anthropic Report

Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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