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Sound Investing

Paul Merriman
Sound Investing
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  • Staying the Course — Insights on Reasonable & Unreasonable Portfolios, Quilt Charts & 2025 Returns
    In this episode, Paul dives into one of the most important themes in long-term investing: staying the course, even when individual asset classes deliver unexpected short-term results. Whether you’re a seasoned DIY investor or still building confidence, Paul shares timely lessons to help you make better decisions—and support others who rely on your guidance.Paul also previews his upcoming presentation for the AAII Puget Sound Chapter, where he’ll take one of the deepest dives yet into Daryl Balls’ latest quilt charts, the Sound Investing portfolios, and the vital differences between traditional and non-traditional index funds. You’ll hear Paul discuss insights from two of the industry’s leading “truth tellers”:• Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor) and his Bogleheads presentation on reasonable vs. unreasonable portfolios• Dr. Bill Bernstein, and why staying disciplined may be investors’ greatest lifelong challengeAlong the way, Paul reviews 10-month, year-to-date performance for the Best-in-Class ETF portfolios—including the 10-fund, 4-fund, and 2-fund strategies—and explains why the surprising 2025 return patterns are completely normal.Key topics include:Why some equity asset classes “disappoint” this year—and why that’s expectedThe resurgence of international value, small international, and emerging marketsHow Chris Pedersen’s 4-Fund Worldwide strategy kept pace with the 10-FundThe powerful role of non-traditional index funds (DFA & Avantis)Why small-cap value’s recent struggles shouldn’t discourage long-term investorsHow to access DFA-style factor premiums through today’s ETFsThe importance of keeping an investing approach simple, reasonable, and durableWhy staying the course—not forecasting—is the true key to long-term successPaul also shares personal updates about moving back to Bainbridge Island and reflects on what it means to serve a community of dedicated DIY investors.If you know someone who would benefit from this work, please share this episode. And don’t miss the links in the show notes—including Jim Dahle’s video, portfolio references, quilt charts, and upcoming AAII registration details.Thank you for listening—and all the best to you and your family.
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  • The Merriman Financial Education Foundation: Plans, Priorities & Lessons for 2026
    Paul Merriman welcomes back Chris Patterson, Director of Research, and Daryl Balls, Director of Analytics, for another thoughtful roundtable discussion. These three “underpaid volunteers” reflect on how far the Merriman Financial Education Foundation has come — and where it’s headed next. Together, they cover everything from new educational tools to a data-driven look at one of the most common investor questions: Has small-cap value lost its punch?The episode revisits this hot topic with evidence from decades of historical data, including several key Merriman Tables that illustrate why small-cap value (SCV) continues to deserve a place in long-term portfolios.📊 Quilt Chart: Year-by-Year Performance of the Major Asset Classes Created by Daryl Balls, this visual “quilt” shows how the four major U.S. equity asset classes — large-cap blend, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value — have rotated in and out of favor since 1928. The randomness of short-term returns underscores the importance of diversification and patience. Despite long stretches of average performance, small-cap value’s cumulative results remain powerful. ➡️ View the Quilt Chart on PaulMerriman.com📈 Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning Table — S&P 500 vs U.S. SCV Equity Portfolio Outperformance Prepared by Daryl Balls, this 54-year comparison (1970–2024) demonstrates how small-cap value has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over time. The two rightmost columns — highlighting rolling 15-year and 20-year outperformance — are especially compelling, showing that even after periods of apparent weakness, SCV regains its strength. ➡️ Explore Table G-1b: Fine-Tuning S&P vs SCV📉 Tables B1, H2, H2A, and D1.4: Core Bootcamp Comparisons From the Foundation’s Sound Investing Bootcamp series, these tables reveal how diversified equity portfolios have performed versus the S&P 500, both in accumulation and distribution phases. They help investors see that broad diversification — especially adding small-cap value — historically improves returns and risk-adjusted outcomes.Table B1: All-Equity Portfolio Returns by Asset Class (1928–2024)Table H2: 60/40 Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table H2A: All-Equity Portfolio Distribution Outcomes (1970–2024)Table D1.4: Historical Equity Premiums and Drawdowns➡️ See all Bootcamp TablesPaul, Chris, and Daryl explain that small-cap value premiums come in bursts — often following years of average performance. As Paul notes, SCV has had multiple 15- to 20-year stretches of breaking even with the S&P 500, followed by explosive 3- to 10-year “catch-up” periods that deliver outsized gains. The data in Table G-1b makes this clear: over 54 years, SCV continues to deliver a meaningful performance edge.As Daryl reminds listeners, “those two columns on the right are powerful.” They show that long-term investors who remain patient — and maintain a disciplined exposure to small-cap value — have been well rewarded.Patience is the premium. Factor returns are unpredictable year to year, but history rewards persistence.Diversification is defense. Combining S&P 500 with small-cap value reduces regret during both booms and busts.Data over drama. The Foundation’s free tools, calculators, and tables are designed to help you make rational, informed choices for the long term.🎧 Listen now on Spotify or YouTube to hear Paul, Chris, and Daryl discuss new tools like the Two Funds for Life Calculator, updates to the Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations, and their vision for the next generation of financial education.Featured Tables and ChartsWhy Small-Cap Value Still Packs a PunchEducational Takeaways
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  • The Biggest Mistake Beginner Investors Make - and How to Avoid them
    In this practical and inspiring ETFatlas podcast episode, host Jack Lempart welcomes Paul Merriman for a return conversation focused on the biggest mistakes beginner investors make—and how to avoid them.The discussion reveals why most investing errors are emotional, not technical. Paul emphasizes that successful investing is usually simple, though almost never easy.Paul Merriman draws on decades of experience as an educator, advisor, and founder of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation to spotlight key pitfalls:Trusting the wrong adviceStarting too late with investingLetting emotions drive decisionsChasing recent performancePaul’s conversation goes further, sharing actionable tips:How defensive investing and diversification protect you from major mistakesPractical ways to automate good habits and avoid behavioral biasesInsights from both US and European market examplesYou’ll also hear why academic research has shaped today’s best investment practices. Paul strongly advocates:Automating decisions wherever possibleBroad diversificationMaintaining discipline during market turbulenceListeners receive clear advice on keeping investing simple, avoiding high fees, and building portfolios designed to withstand uncertainty.The episode closes with tips for further reading—including free educational resources and helpful links—to support every investor’s learning journey.AgendaPaul Merriman’s journey from stockbroker to financial educator and foundation founder​Introduction to the most costly mistakes for beginners and how they can affect lifetime wealth​Why trusting the wrong advice is potentially the biggest error investors make​The importance of choosing academically sound, evidence-based sources over industry “experts” or neighbors​Analysis of how starting too late in investing can dramatically reduce future wealth​The emotional traps beginners face and the impact of behavioral biases on decision-making​The problem of performance chasing and recency bias in investment choices​Automating investments and the value of regular, disciplined contributions​Why diversification is considered “the only free lunch” in investing by experts​Advantages of keeping portfolios simple with solutions like target-date funds and low-cost ETFs​Examples illustrating the massive impact of investment fees over decades​The difference between defensive and offensive strategies in long-term market success​Real-world lessons from market history, including US, Europe, and Japan​How to avoid paralysis from choice overwhelm in a landscape of thousands of ETFs​
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  • Chris & Paul October 2025 Q&A: Best-in-Class ETFs, Equal-Weight vs. Cap-Weight, and How Much Small-Cap Value?
    Watch YouTube video here.Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen tackle your biggest questions—from simplifying portfolios and picking best-in-class ETFs to understanding equal-weighted funds, tax efficiency, and how much small-cap value to own. They dig into factor investing (size, value, quality, profitability, momentum), why reversion to the mean matters, and how to think like an owner—not a speculator. Plus: mentors, work-life balance, and the real risk investors face.Chapters00:00 – Intro & Mentors05:07 – Portfolio Simplification10:13 – Work-Life Balance11:39 – Which ETFs will outperform?20:15 – Importance of Quality22:45 – Equal-Weighted Funds26:14 – History: how long is enough?29:58 – Cost of public indexing33:30 – Equal-weight fund tax vs. ETF35:21 – How much small-cap value?39:47 – Why three EM ETFs?42:28 – “All Avantis” risk?49:45 – Technology sector history & mean reversion53:00 – Be an owner, not a speculator55:27 – OutroKey Takeaways“Best” ETF ≠ next year’s top performer—seek consistent factor exposure, low costs, broad holdings, and tax efficiency.Equal-weighting boosts small/value exposure but can increase turnover and tax drag; pairing large-cap blend with small-cap value can be more efficient.Decide small-cap value allocation by temperament (common range: 10–50% of equities when pairing with S&P 500/target date).Index approach vs. index label: DFA/Avantis are systematic and rules-based without telegraphing rebalances.Think like an owner: over decades, earnings—not sentiment—drive returns.Resources• Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations (2025): https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations-2025#gsc.tab=0• Sound Investing Portfolios, Returns & Risks: https://www.paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios#gsc.tab=0• “Tune Out the Noise” (DFA Documentary): https://youtu.be/T98825bzcKw?si=kFMugnSSCn2E76sI
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  • Can You Trust the Market? Equal-Weighted S&P 500 vs. Four-Fund Strategy
    In this week’s episode, Paul Merriman shares lessons from a lifetime of investing—prompted by conversations with students, longtime collaborator Rich Buck, and questions from new investors about trust and risk.Paul dives deep into the data behind his favorite long-term strategies, including the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the classic Four-Fund Portfolio, comparing 25-year results across multiple time periods.He explains why no one can predict short-term returns, but how history can still guide your long-term strategy. Using decades of data, Paul shows how diversification across size and value has rewarded disciplined investors—even when recent performance has lagged.Referenced Tables & Data:40-Year Returns (1928–2024): S&P 500 best 12.5% / worst 8.9%25-Year Periods (1950–1974, 1975–1999, 2000–2025)Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (VADDX/RSP) vs. Cap-Weighted (VTSAX, S&P 500) DFA Small Cap Value (DFSVX and DFFVX)vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap Value (IWN)Four-Fund Portfolio (S&P 500, Large Cap Value, Small Cap Blend, Small Cap Value)Two-Fund Portfolio (S&P 500 + Small Cap Value)From 2000–2025, the S&P 500 compounded at 8.3%, while the equal-weighted version earned 9.9%, and small-cap value reached 11.1%. Paul explains why this premium persists and why patience—backed by data—is an investor’s greatest advantage.Full tables and charts available at PaulMerriman.com 
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