Sound Investing

Watch the video here.
Paul sits down with Rick Ferri — not for a debate, but for the kind of honest conversation two people can only have after spending their careers chasing the same goal from different directions.
Rick makes the case against tilting: the small cap premium largely disappeared once the research went public around 1980, and he believes value stopped working around 2006. Paul counters with Table G1b, which shows the results of blending small cap value and the S&P 500 in 10% increments from 1970 through 2025 — returns alongside the worst drawdowns each combination had to survive. Then Rick does something unexpected — he crosses to Paul's side of the table and builds a strong argument for small cap value, framing it as a way to capture the return of private companies that represent half of the economy.
Where they land is less about who's right than what it costs to be wrong. If you go down the factor road, Rick says, it's a lifetime commitment — not three years.
Also covered: lump sum versus dollar cost averaging, what an hourly advisor can do to help do-it-yourself investors implement their new portfolio, the new Trump accounts for newborns, and why VT may not be your best choice in a taxable account.
Both Paul and Rick will be at the Bogleheads Conference, November 13–15 at Green Valley Ranch Resort and Spa in Henderson, NV, near Las Vegas. Registration: boglecenter.net/2026conference
Table G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value: View the table
Stay tuned for next week's podcast, a discussion with Chris Pedersen about this interview with Rick.

This Friday I'm sitting down with my friend Rick Ferri for a debate that I think matters a great deal, even though — or maybe because — Rick and I agree on almost everything. We both believe in diversification, low costs, index funds, ignoring predictions, and staying the course. Where we part ways is what happens after that.
Rick's case is that you should simply own the whole market. A total stock market index fund gives you thousands of companies at an extraordinarily low cost, and adding complexity rarely pays. My case is that the academic research — Fama, French, and decades of market history — shows that greater exposure to small and value companies may raise long-term expected returns. Rick calls that factor tilting. I call it better diversification. He'll argue I'm not adding diversification at all, just changing the weights, and he's right that this is exactly what we're doing. The question is whether it's worth doing.
We also take on a second question that gets far too little attention: if you do want small and value exposure, where should you get it? Vanguard, Fidelity, DFA or Avantis — traditional indexing or systematic portfolio management? Differences that look trivial today can compound into very large ones over 40 or 50 years.
Neither of us is trying to win. Rick may be right. I may be right. Ask us again in 50 years. What I hope you take away is the process — examining evidence, understanding the alternatives, admitting what nobody knows, and committing to a strategy you can stick with. Because every strategy disappoints you eventually, and what you do in that moment matters more than which one you chose.
The podcast and video of my conversation with Rick will be available Wednesday, August 19, 2026. If you have any questions for Rick, send them to Paul@paulmerriman.com.

Paul returns from three days at the Garrett Planning Network retreat with a lesson that has almost nothing to do with investments — and everything to do with getting your money's worth from professional advice.
Garrett advisors work by the hour, a business model Paul believes eliminates the conflicts of interest built into assets-under-management relationships. For $1,000 to $8,000, he's convinced most families can get extraordinary value from five to ten hours with a thoughtful, trained hourly planner. But there's a catch: the value of those hours depends almost entirely on your willingness to tell the truth. Inspired by a Seth Godin observation — people lie in focus groups, on surveys, and to themselves — Paul explains why the most valuable planning meeting isn't the one where you look financially successful. It's the one where you're completely honest. Paul and his wife are putting this to the test with an hourly planner of their own, and he'll report back in the weeks ahead.
Next, Paul shares a private conversation with his longtime friend Rick Ferri, who challenged an idea Paul has taught for decades: that small cap value, large cap value, and international are equity asset classes at all. Rick argues there's only one equity asset class — the total market — and everything else is a segment or style. Paul takes the challenge seriously, does some digging, and explains why the answer matters far more than a debate over definitions. How you think about asset classes shapes the portfolio you'll live with for the next 60 or 70 years.
Finally, Paul digs into AVGE, the Avantis globally diversified all-equity ETF, and how it compares to Vanguard's total market approach (VT and VTI). He walks through the meaningful differences: 70/30 U.S./international at Avantis versus 60/40 at Vanguard, and substantially larger positions in mid cap value, small cap value, and small cap blend. He looks at what those tilts have meant historically — including Vanguard's own mid cap value fund turning $10,000 into roughly $160,000 versus $102,000 for the S&P 500 — and why he believes the extra 0.17% in expenses may be money well spent. For investors who don't want to go all-in, Paul offers simple combinations, like a third VT, a third AVGE, and a third AVUV.
CHAPTERS
00:00 – Introduction: three topics from the Garrett retreat
01:56 – Why hourly advisors have fewer conflicts of interest
05:52 – The catch: your willingness to tell the truth
06:38 – Seth Godin: "People lie... and they lie to themselves"
08:04 – What planners can't fix if they don't know about it
13:00 – Paul's debate with Rick Ferri: what is an equity asset class?
18:05 – Why the definition shapes your lifetime portfolio
21:34 – AVGE vs. VT: U.S./international balance
23:07 – Comparing value, blend, and growth exposure
25:00 – Mid cap and small cap: what history shows
30:15 – Expense ratios and what you're paying for
31:35 – Simple combinations: VT + AVGE + AVUV
33:15 – Stay the course: closing thoughts
Learn more about the Garrett Planning Network

Paul discusses his upcoming trip to Minneapolis to address almost 100 hourly financial planners at the Garrett Planning Network annual retreat — then shows, in real time, how he uses AI alongside the Truth Tellers. This example is prompted by a Ben Felix video arguing that most people save without knowing their real “why.” Paul asked ChatGPT to explore the question and shares the full AI response, which includes the six steps to creating your “why” — from “dream before you calculate” to purpose → plan → portfolio.
In the second part of this podcast he responds to the many listeners who have asked: build the worldwide all-value portfolio with five Avantis ETFs, or simply buy AVGV, a single ETF that owns the same ETFs but in different percentages? Over three years, AVGV compounded at 21.1% (up 77.4%), while the five-fund do-it-yourself version compounded at 22.2% (up 82.6%) with no rebalancing. Doing the work likely earns a better return — but a Morningstar study suggests most investors do better buying the single ETF, because it takes care of all the rebalancing and overcomes the tendency to chase returns as money is added.
Paul would appreciate your feedback on this podcast: paul@paulmerriman.com.
LINKS
• Ben Felix video on investor myths
• Morningstar “Mind the Gap 2025” study
• Garrett Planning Network — find an hourly advisor
• Meet the Truth Tellers

The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course.
In this episode, Paul sets aside the usual fine-tuning tables and turns to one of his favorite books, Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward. Table by table, Ben makes the same point in a dozen different ways: the bad stuff is normal, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The goal isn't to avoid it — it's to expect it, so you can stay the course.
Along the way, Paul walks through:
• The 10 worst days, months, and years in market history — and how the market behaved 1, 5, and 10 years later
• Why bonds turn a 43% stock loss into something far gentler, and why a simple 60/40 has never had a losing 20-year period
• How stocks actually perform before, during, and after a recession (the average is a gain)
• The "dead cat bounces" of 2000–2002 and why three years of false hope wear investors down
• What a century of international returns says about putting all your eggs in one basket
• The most quietly important number in investing: the market's average daily return of 0.03% — a lifetime of baby steps
The theme underneath it all: future returns will likely look a lot like the past. We simply have no way to know the sequence — and that's exactly why realistic expectations, low costs, and broad diversification matter more than any forecast.
The biggest enemy of the investor, as the data keeps showing, isn't the market. It's the investor.
BRINGING FINANCIAL FREEDOM TO NEW AUDIENCES
Last week I spent more than three hours with 89 graduating nurses at Texas A&M University, exploring one life-changing idea: how a handful of smart financial decisions can add millions of dollars to your lifetime financial security. Many of you asked to see what these presentations look like, so we're making this one available to watch (link below).
LINKS
• Ben Carlson, Risk and Reward (Foundation earns when you use this link)
• Texas A&M nursing school presentation (3+ hour video)
• Texas A&M student feedback
• Mike Piper, Social Security Made Simple / other titles
• Personal Finance in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies
• Free books from Paul Merriman
• Boot Camp series & tables