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Sound Investing

Paul Merriman
Sound Investing
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  • 11 Q&A-Bonds, Rebalancing, All Value, Vanguard vs. Avantis & DFA
    Many of you have been submitting thoughtful questions through our AI chat, particularly on fund selection, asset allocation, and broader investment strategy. It’s encouraging to see this level of engagement with the core principles that shape long-term financial success.While the AI generally provides sound and efficient guidance, there are times when its responses lack the nuance or clarity that experience can bring. To provide deeper context and help you make more informed decisions, I’ve selected several recent questions to address—drawing from the AI’s suggestions where appropriate and adding insights based on decades of research and practice.One brief correction from a recent update: I previously mentioned a resource for ETF investors in Canada, Europe, and the U.S., but misspoke on the name. The correct website is ETFAtlas.com. Jack, the developer behind it, is creating a valuable tool for globally minded investors. Your candid feedback—what’s working well and what could be improved—will be essential as he continues building out the platform. Look for additional features to roll out in the months ahead.What Sound Investing Portfolio does Paul use and why? 3:02What funds should I use to set up a Roth IRA account for a 21-year-old? 13:06Do you think Vanguard funds will get lower returns than Avantis and DFA ETFs?  21:46Is there a table that represents using the S&P 500 and Aggregate U.S. Bond Index rather than your 3-fund bond portfolio?  26:51I am 45, hoping to retire by 55-60. Is 25% in bonds too little? 31:04Does it make sense to have non-taxable bonds in an IRA? 34:34Your quilt chart (1928-2024) shows a 2-fund portfolio with 50% each small cap value and large cap value. Isn’t that too much in small cap value? 35:39How often should I rebalance?  38:09In your podcasts you talk a lot more about the 4-fund portfolios (WW and U.S.) than you do the all-value portfolios. The all-values have higher returns but you recommend them less often. Why? 40:19Are there conditions where the all-value portfolios will underperform the more balanced portfolios?  40:19. (Answer is integrated with previous question)I’m 57. How much should I have in bonds?  49:30
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  • Avantis Vs. DFA and the Winner Is?
    On this week's podcast, we dive into my fascinating six-month journey with AI, exploring how tools like ChatGPT are revolutionizing access to information and informed guidance. Drawing inspiration from Seth Godin's insightful piece, "Education is Free, Learning is Expensive," we'll discuss why true learning demands commitment and effort, especially in today's information-rich world.I've discovered AI's power extends far beyond simple fact-checking. It's a game-changer for understanding diverse perspectives, even helping me tailor advice to different generations. My goal is to help you leverage this incredible tool to build a better financial future.We'll also gain some valuable perspective on investment returns, especially after the unique first half of the year. While six months isn't a long-term indicator, it's certainly given us plenty to discuss! Many are wondering if now's the time to jump into international equities, especially as they've shown unexpected strength.Understanding Diversification and Long-Term InvestingI'll share my philosophy on successful long-term investing as a buy-and-holder: identifying equity asset classes that offer a premium for risk and grow faster than inflation. We'll examine the "ultimate buy and hold portfolio," which strategically blends U.S. and international equities, and analyze its performance over the past six months, comparing it to other popular strategies from Vanguard and DFA.You'll be surprised to see how closely Avantis and DFA ETFs performed, despite some significant individual fund differences. We'll also delve into the fascinating relationship between the U.S. dollar's value and international equity performance. For a deeper dive, I highly recommend checking out this illuminating table from Brandes Investment Partners: https://www.brandes.com/insights/chart-of-the-week/us-dollar-and-international-equities-03312023. It clearly illustrates how the dollar's strength and weakness correlate with international returns, offering historical examples of how these trends ebb and flow. Chasing returns isn't the answer, but a diversified, buy-and-hold approach can significantly reduce volatility and smooth out your equity returns—a major advantage, especially for retirees.The Allure and Nuance of Long-Term ReturnsWe'll then shift our focus to long-term performance data, specifically looking at the last 15 years through June 2025. You might be surprised to learn how the S&P 500, growth stocks, and even Berkshire Hathaway have compounded over this period, and how these returns compare to historical averages and expectations. While U.S. growth has been a clear winner recently, we'll discuss why historical norms suggest a different long-term outcome for value and small-cap stocks.I'll also address the popular Total Market Index and offer a candid take on whether it truly outperforms the S&P 500 for those not seeking broader diversification. We'll explore why, in some cases, a simpler approach might be just as effective, or even more so.The Power of Information and Future ToolsFinally, I'll emphasize how today's access to free information from sources like Morningstar empowers you to conduct research that was unimaginable just decades ago. Plus, I'll give you a sneak peek at a new, exciting, and largely free tool coming soon from AtlasETF.com, which will allow you to easily test different portfolio strategies.Join me as we explore these crucial topics and continue to empower you on your journey to becoming a more successful long-term investor.What are your thoughts on using AI for financial planning? We'd love to hear from you!
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  • The SPIVA Report- Proof You Can Buy!
    Today, we're diving into something super important for anyone interested in mutual funds: the SPIVA Report, it's a big deal, and we'll break down why.But before we get to that, a quick note about August 4th. Chris, Daryl, and I are getting together that day to figure out how we can do even more to help you, not just now, but for the rest of your life as we all get closer to retirement. This is a huge goal, and we'd love your input! What can we do to improve our educational materials? Please email me your ideas at [email protected]. We're thinking about everything, from AI's role to helping you build a portfolio that truly lasts a lifetime, send your thoughts my way!The SPIVA Report: Active vs. Passive InvestingAlright, let's talk SPIVA. This report has been around since 2002, tracking the performance of active versus passive mutual funds. They analyze virtually every actively managed fund, comparing them to appropriate market indexes. They go to great lengths to ensure fair, "apples-to-apples" comparisons.A crucial aspect they address is survivorship bias. Many underperforming funds get merged or liquidated. If you were investing, these funds were part of your initial choices. SPIVA accounts for all funds, not just the ones that survived, giving a much more accurate picture. This is a key difference from other reports that only look at surviving funds, which can make active management look better than it is. They also track style consistency – ensuring funds stick to their stated investment approach, unlike some active managers who might "drift" in their investments.What the Data Reveals: The Long-Term AdvantageWhile single years can show active managers doing okay, the real story unfolds over longer periods. Let's look at large-cap core funds (like those tracking the S&P 500):·      1 year: ~76% underperform.·      10 years: 96% underperform!·      15 years: 97% underperform!·      20 years: 93% underperform.This is a powerful reason why I advocate for index funds. They're built on a formula, not on human managers trying to guess market winners. Across almost all equity asset classes, over 90% of actively managed funds underperform over 20 years.Why? The first advantage for index funds is lower expenses. While active fund fees have come down, they're still a major factor. The biggest hidden risk, though, is manager's picks and timing. Active managers try to beat the market with individual stock selections, but the data shows it's incredibly risky. (By the way the report doesn’t address taxes on active funds and that can be another 1% drain annually.)SPIVA's quartile data highlights this: for small-cap value over five years, the top 25% of active funds started at 10% or more. But the bottom 25% earned significantly less than 7.8%. This means you're taking on volatility and the risk of vastly underperforming your chosen asset class.Survivorship & PatienceAnother eye-opening stat: over 20 years, only 36% of all domestic funds are still in business. For large-cap growth, where the action has been recently, only 26% of funds from 20 years ago are still around. This suggests poor performance led to closures or mergers, hiding underperformance from investors.In the end, you, the investor, are the hardest worker. Your discipline to stay the course during tough times is paramount. The SPIVA report is a quality piece of research, factual and fair. While the future won't be identical to the past, it often "rhymes." The longer your investment horizon, the more likely choosing index funds (traditional or non-traditional) will lead to success, avoiding performance that may be more luck than skill. Patience is key, and we want you to have patience in owning funds with a very high probability of success.WE ARE rooting for your investment success, not just for you, but for your children and grandchildren! So, good luck, and don't forget to send those suggestions for our August 4th meeting to [email protected].
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  • June Q&A with Paul, Chris an Daryl
    Watch video here.Join Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen, and Daryl Bahls for a deep dive into questions facing today’s investors! In this episode, our team tackles a wide range of topics designed to help you make smarter financial decisions, whether you’re a seasoned DIY investor or just getting started.Main Topics Covered:1. Midcap Funds – Are They Necessary? 2:24We break down why midcap funds often get left out of recommended portfolios, the impact of fund overlap, and whether including them really adds value or just complexity.2. Listener Allocation Questions 12:49Hear real-life portfolio allocation questions from our listeners—including how to balance S&P 500, value, and midcap funds. The team discusses the pros and cons of various strategies and how to avoid unnecessary overlap.3. The Risks of Small Cap Growth 19:10Discover why small cap growth funds can be risky, the historical performance data, and why value funds may be a better long-term bet for most investors.4. Hourly Advisors & DIY Investing 22:41Thinking about ditching your advisor and going DIY? We discuss the benefits and challenges of working with hourly advisors, how to find one that supports your strategy, and the importance of sticking with a plan you understand.5. Capital Gains & Taxes 27:45Got questions about selling investments and minimizing taxes? While we don’t provide personal tax advice, our experts outline the key considerations and why consulting a tax professional is essential for big moves.6. Financial Freedom Mindset 30:05It’s not just about retirement—it’s about saving for freedom! Learn how reframing your financial goals can keep you motivated and focused for the long haul.7. Avantis vs. DFA Funds 31:15Curious about the differences between Avantis and DFA ETFs? Chris and Daryl compare these two fund families, explaining how their philosophies align, where they differ, and how to choose the best fit for your portfolio.8. AVGE for Granddaughter? 38:32Paul shares his personal approach to investing for his granddaughter, comparing AVUS, AVUV, and AVGE, and why teaching young investors about asset class behavior can be more valuable than just chasing returns.9. Should You Avoid Growth Funds? 45:53They explain why “growth” funds aren’t always what they seem, the pitfalls of chasing expensive stocks, and why a tilt toward value and small cap may offer better long-term results.10. The Rule of 72 – Power of Compounding 52:47Learn how to use the Rule of 72 to teach young investors (and yourself!) the massive impact of compound returns over time. It’s a simple math trick that can change your financial future.Daryl references this table- Sound Investing Portfolios 1970-2024- https://tinyurl.com/4xabhke5
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  • A Very Special Birthday and an investment choice forever
    In this special episode, Paul Merriman reflects on six decades of financial evolution, sparked by his son's 60th birthday. He draws fascinating comparisons between life and investing in 1965 and today, offering invaluable insights for every investor.What You'll Learn:A Look Back at 1965: Paul revisits societal norms, income levels, and the investing landscape of 60 years ago, including startling facts about mutual fund loads and stock commissions.The Evolution of Investing: Understand the monumental shift from individual stock picking to the dominance of mutual funds and the revolutionary impact of index funds since their inception.Market Returns & Bear Markets: Gain perspective on historical S&P 500 returns, including adjustments for inflation, and a review of major bear markets over the past decades.The Power of Low Costs: Discover how investment costs, from loads to commissions, have drastically reduced, making it easier and more affordable for today's investors.Modern Investment Tools: Paul highlights the advent of crucial financial tools like IRAs, 401(k)s, and target-date funds that weren't available in 1965, empowering today's investors.Academic-Driven Investing: Explore the rise of academic influence in investing, with a focus on firms like Vanguard, DFA, and Avantis, and why their approach offers a trustworthy path to your financial future.The Role of AI in Your Financial Journey: Paul shares his perspective on how Artificial Intelligence can empower investors to make informed decisions and find reliable financial guidance.Top Financial Education Resources: Learn about the highly recommended (and free!) "Rebel Finance School" by Alan and Katie Donoghan for new investors, and explore how to access financial literacy programs like iGrad.The Importance of Financial Literacy: Paul emphasizes that financial literacy is often overlooked in traditional education and is essential for building a robust portfolio that will support you for a lifetime.DIY Investing Philosophy: Paul reaffirms his core mission as a teacher, empowering listeners to "do it yourself" and build their financial future with confidence.Truth Tellers: Paul asked our listeners for recommendations for Truth Tellers as well as providing the list of our Truth Tellers in the show notes.Our Truth TellersWilliam J. BernsteinBen Carlson, CFA Jonathan Clements, Financial Writer/AuthorLarry Swedroe, Author, Speaker, Chief Research Officer Dr. James Dahle, MD and the founder of The White Coat Investor Morningstar – Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler, Financial Writers Stan The Annuity Man, Annuity ExpertGeorge Sisti, Certified Financial Planner® Rob Berger, podcaster, writer and author Tim Ranzetta, ngpf.orgTwo CentsTom Cock and Don McDonald VestoryBen FelixDon't miss this insightful episode filled with historical context, practical advice, and forward-looking strategies for your wealth-building journey.
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Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.
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