The Macro Trading Floor

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants? FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates. FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios. Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7 Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework. Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8 Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/