Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Aakash Gupta points out the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one, which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years.

An FT exclusive delves into how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic, especially to sell its own chips to the company. 

And Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending.

ChipTycoon, an info-animation, shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game. 

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the latest market moves as we position the importance of Friday's US jobs report, noting the reaction to key incoming earnings from Western Digital and Sandisk in particular and the impressive rally move in gold and silver. Considerable coverage as well of Victor Niederhoffer, a larger than life Wall Street figure who died this Tuesday and whose life inspired and touched countless speculators and professionals over his career, including this podcast host, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

The all-time must read article for want-to-be speculators: The New Yorker article by Malcom Gladwell: Blowing Up, comparing and contrasting Victor Niederhoffer and Nassim Taleb.

The Henry Clews book Fifty Years in Wall Street. This book inspired Niederhoffer's giving out canes to people who offered valuable inspiration while writing his column for MSN's MoneyCentral.

Education of a Speculator - the legendary book.

Recent (less recent than I said on podcast - actually latest I can find is from this February) Mark Spitznagel prediction on one final meltup followed by 80% crash in stocks.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the very strong day for US equity markets yesterday as the S&P 500 vaulted to a strong new all-time high amidst broad gains across sectors, with tech stocks roaring higher but the Nasdaq 100 not yet reaching a new peak. We look at the SpaceX earnings announcement and market reaction, including the announcement of a new Nvidia-chip based Starmind concept that is intended as the platform for the eventual SpaceX space-based AI data centers. Elsewhere, a look at the latest action in Macro and FX, especially whether the gold and silver surge yesterday suggests greater potential from here. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

SpaceX's new Starmind AI1 concept - a compact data center unit based on the next generation Nvidia Vera Rubin chips that will start in earth-based data centers, but is intended for SpaceX's eventual space-based data centers.

The legendary Barry Eichengreen on "The real message in the JPY intervention".

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with CEO Alex Karp, wonder how SpaceX can deliver anything notable today relative to the company's valuation, and preview AMD, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack post with many links, including on AI.

John's The FX Trader piece from this morning, focusing especially on the recent coordinated JPY intervention and EURJPY.

69 Starship launches to get one decent payload to the moon? A Starship skeptic speaks out on concerns related to the idea of SpaceX using these space-based depots of fuel to extend the operating range of Starship. 

Arnaud Bertrand challenges Palantir's AI Sovereignty framework, although Palantir's results spoke quite loudly late yesterday, as did CEO Alex Karp himself.

Tungsten as an indicator of war risk and once again, a mineral supply chain that China dominates.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the implications for a stronger JPY from coordinated intervention as the US has joined forces with Japan to force yen appreciation. As well, we wonder what the implications are for equities now that we trade with a much cleaner slate after reaching the other side of blowups in leveraged single-stock ETFs and the liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund late last week. A busy week ahead for earnings and macro and more also previewed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. 

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.