Saxo Market Call

Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down the earnings reports and market reactions for key companies reporting this week, including Crowdstrike, Broadcom and Marvell and looks at three more key names set to report next week, including Oracle. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

The FX Trader post from today from John. 

The Michael McNair post discussing with a priceless framing of the US-China race for control of supply chains as tension builds with the US' latest moves.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk in both directions. We look at the latest developments and wonder where the US intelligence attempts to support Kurdish rebellions in Iran could lead, among other key questions. Elsewhere, Broadcom unleashed a massive forecast for its AI chip business in its earnings call and managed to get a positive reaction initially, the latest test for AI stocks. Macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz and discuss on what time scale the disruption would become more profound. Macro & FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

As promised on today's pod, here is a great conversation on the Triggernometry podcast with two experts and their perspectives on the Iranian conflict.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.