Saxo Market Call

Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider Saxo's outrageous prediction for this year regarding the SpaceX IPO and one of the main things - or perhaps the main thing - Elon Musk hopes to achieve in going to Mars (link below). Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

We took a stab at predicting the scale of the SpaceX IPO  (undershooting badly!) and some of the true reasons for Elon Musk's passion for going to Mars in the Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2026 released late last year.

The Register discussed Salesforce' "waving bye-bye" to its User Interface as it opens up its data to a trillion API calls from other platforms, including increasingly Anthropic  via its Headless 360, a programmable agent platform.

The constantly shade-throwing Futurism (ironically a bit Luddite at times) with an article questioning whether CEO's are suffering from AI psychosis as they are out of touch with the struggle for AI to get traction at ground level in their organisations.

Is AI making some people feel and act dangerously over-competent and what are the risks if so? (HT FTAlphaville)

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names.  Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Michael Burry points out that VC has gone whole hog in AI, similar to the situation in 2000 with TMT bubble.

Acquired put out a four-hour episode on the fascinating history and phenomenon that is Ferrari - these guys are great. 

FT with an exclusive on Ukraine turning the tables in its war with Russia - amazing innovation and rates of production for their at least partially homegrown tech.

Stratechery with a brief discussion (paywall) of the SpaceX IPO, both quite dismissive in some ways, but also surprisingly supportive of the idea that space-based data centres could be a thing.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bath math from your host in today's podcast)

Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with its new EV, note today's important earnings calendar, break down the latest in macro and FX and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and concerns that we are none the wiser on the Iran War ahead of a long weekend for US markets. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Blonde Money is worth a follow, particularly recently on the UK political situation.

Passive investing might blow up the stock market once it has become too dominant, at least according to models. The discussion is rambling, but some great nuggets in there.

The valuation maestro Aswath Damodaran puts together the case for a SpaceX valuation of USD 1.2 trillion.

Nasdaq bending over backwards to secure the SpaceX listing will guarantee enormous passive allocations to the company very early on, whatever its general level of financial success.

Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital has his own assessment of SpaceX after the drop of its pre-IPO S-1 filings. Worth a read.

And the public domain shy Albert Edwards made an appearance on the Odd Lots podcast, talking the risk of double-digit inflation and the general mayhem that he often sees right around the corner. Always worth listening to, if not for any well-timed market call.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the prospect of perhaps the most anticipated IPO ever is overwhelming the market's interest in processing Nvidia's latest earnings report, which checked all of the boxes, but no more. Elsewhere, the latest headline risks from the Iran war are pointing in the right direction, but pointing isn't enough - we need a deal to bring more profound relief to bond markets and perhaps as well to keep the USD bull at bay. Important trading day tomorrow ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend in the US. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen brings key perspective on the latest US oil and product inventories report.

There is a risk that the age of agentic AI and Ad-supported LLM's could put the interests of the Ad-buyers way ahead of those of the end-users. Worth considering the potential conflicts of interest.

Jeremy Grantham's GMO wrote back in January that if at least two of the "big three" potential IPOs happened this year, it could represent a risk to the broader market.

 

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.