Saxo Market Call

Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears of additional AI disruption even as the company scrambles for a new business model to have an answer for the age of AI. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

John's latest The FX Trader update

Accenture knocked post earnings as it is scrambling to redefine itself - good coverage from FT.

Izabella Kaminska with more of her usual second order thinking on how to position the USD 300 billion package in the Iran deal.

Odd Lots podcast interviews the venerable Jeremy Grantham, who has seen a think or two in his 87-plus years.

WSJ profiles the success of the Lynas CEO in building its rare earths capacity.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Link

As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max supportive move lower in crude oil yesterday, showing that lower oil prices have lost their impact as macro driver. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack with more links, if you missed these.

Craig Tindale's latest on "Who owns the chemistry that turns metal into power." Laying out why those critical materials are so critical and the systematic changes required to address the issue if China isn't to maintain its dominance and leverage.

Peter Garnry on SpaceX and how truly rare  it is to see the kind of growth that some are anticipating for this company - with only two prior examples that are even in the same universe for a company of size.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast

Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

Links

John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week.

A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face. 

FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows.

The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.)

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.