Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report something negative. Elsewhere, SpaceX is making waves in traditional telephony and earnings season is about to kick off. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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We often pass along plenty of links with skeptical takes on AI, but maybe we should balance out occasionally with more positive taks on potential for this wild AI spending to extend out over the horizon for years to come. Of course, if you would rather listen to uber-skeptic Ed Zitron, you can tune in here, here and here.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is in hot water after comments on the Manchester City FC case - not sure if this is existential for his status as the nation's leader, but a huge test.

The Insider reports on Russia's drone that fortunately failed in August to detonate an aircraft (at a German airport) carrying ammunition bound for Ukraine.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural gas situation, sugar and gold and silver with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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Today's FT Big Read is on the leveraging up of hedge fund and semi-institutional players like Citadel and Jane Street and how these have become cash cows for the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. How risky is all that leverage?

Another stab among many out there at how the AI bubble pops. Or will it be called the SI bubble at that point.

World War II sugar rationing in UK provided a valuable experiment on the impact of sugar in the first years of life. Certainly looks like sugar is hazardous for your developmental health.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at Europe and the euro looking suddenly troubled again today as France continues to draw negative attention and Eurozone sovereign yield spreads have widened again today after France's Le Pen presented a long term budget plan on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sterling is charging higher against the single currency and Musk's net worth is back close to a trillion USD, chiefly on his SpaceX holdings. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Liaquat Ahamed has written a new book - I have it down as my next read: 1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World. It could be a timely one to consider if the current investment binge ends up driving a similar outcome.

Michael Burry recommended a paid substack with a deep-dive on Nvidia and its prospects.

Don't know what to say about this other than to put it out there, but there has been some considerable speculation that Xi Jinping may be suffering from poor health.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the confounding combination of very rough seas in macro and FX as EU sovereign debt stress, yield volatility and a strong US dollar weigh, and yet equities seem to be sailing along as if nothing malicious is afoot. Some coverage of why Tesla and especially SpaceX rallied hard on Friday as the latter moves closer to its plans to launch space-based AI data centers, with Google test units already along for the ride. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Anthropic takes a stab at estimating how quickly (or slowly, actually) the robot overlords will take over human labor.

Ukraine is already deploying robots on the battlefield, with some success.

The Half Macro Half Climate substack points to the tensions that will continue to aggravate the risks for French debt and France's status within the EU on the exodus of assets from the financially troubled republic.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the crush lower in short term sovereign bond yields, especially in Europe, where Germany's bonds were bid while French and even Italian longer dated bonds remain stressed, a key focus for European markets and increasingly for the euro currency. The retreat in most sovereign bond yields has buoyed market sentiment today, but some underlying stress signs are still there, and credit spreads were wider yesterday elsewhere as well. Elsewhere, new geopolitical developments are worth paying attention to, including this weekend's election in Brazil. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Is dynamic AI pricing a great way to optimize your business or will it just annoy customers into going elsewhere? Reuters covers McDonald's attempt to find out. Looks risky.

KKGB notes the risk of a self-reinforcing negative spiral in the current French debt situation from local debt without some dramatic change of course.

BBC says that Meta's Muse is about to make the internet more annoying.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.