Reuters Morning Bid

Investors await September inflation data that could show prices rising at nearly twice the Fed's target, testing whether policymakers can hold off on further rate hikes. Plus China's exports surge again, putting the country on course for another trillion-dollar trade surplus this year. And Wall Street's biggest banks reveal how rising bond yields are affecting their business.

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Today's recommended read: Why governments might secretly wish for an AI stumble, by Mike Dolan

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AI stocks slide ahead of earnings season as investors question how much further the chip rally can run. Meanwhile, the IMF lifts its global growth forecasts and points to the AI boom as a key driver of trade and growth. And major US banks open earnings season with bond losses, trading revenues and AI financing in focus.

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Today's recommended read: Europe gets the yuan rise it wants - just not the way it wanted Mike Dolan

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The Trump administration's weekend moves to ease diesel prices - including a waiver on Russian fuel imports and claims of an energy ceasefire in Ukraine - have confused allies and surprised Kyiv. Meanwhile, Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport intensify, the IMF kicks off its annual meetings in Bangkok, and US bank earnings season gets underway alongside a fresh inflation reading.

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Today's recommended read: Central banks face test. Will they be good cops or bond villains?, Mike Dolan

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Open AI's annualized revenue for September is less than previously signaled. Oil prices ease after President Trump says no strikes on Iran are planned before the midterms. And investors prepare for big bank earnings as high yields continue to weigh on dealmaking and borrowing.

Today’s recommended read: Central banks face test. Will they be good cops or bond villains?, Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Bond yields climb to 24-year highs as Fed minutes show most policymakers see more rate rises ahead and investors demand more compensation for holding long-term debt. Wall Street grows uneasy about the huge, increasingly interconnected financing deals funding the AI build-out. And Samsung shares fall despite an eightfold jump in operating profits, while TSMC reports record sales.

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Today's recommended read: Battle for Mideast oil market share has already begun by Ron Bousso

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠and check out his columns on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Reuters Open Interest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Produced by Abisoye Osundairo.

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer.

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