Reuters Morning Bid

Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra conference as markets hunt for fresh policy signals and Treasury yields climb. A surprise jump in U.S. job openings for a second straight month pushes the odds of a July Fed hike to one in three, with payrolls due Thursday. And the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar, with Japanese authorities still holding back on intervention.

Today’s recommended read: Youth, task forces and AI debt - notes from the week, Mike Dolan

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In a special midyear edition of Morning Bid, Mike Dolan is joined by Jamie McGeever to look back on a wild first half of 2026, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow, the best quarter ever for U.S. chip stocks, and the worst month on record for the Magnificent Seven. Plus, a look ahead to midterm elections, a deeply divided Fed outlook, and what a Supreme Court ruling on Lisa Cook means for the central bank.

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Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Markets reach the halfway point of 2026 with a packed and shortened week, with the June payrolls report moved to Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Chip stocks are sitting on their best quarter on record, but profit-taking, a possible OpenAI IPO delay, and a fresh warning from the Bank for International Settlements about the durability of the AI boom are giving investors pause. Oil markets shrug off a weekend U.S.-Iran exchange after both sides agree to resume talks, and Andy Burnham prepares to make his first major economic address as the UK's widely presumed prime minister-in-waiting.

Today’s recommended read: Hormuz oil exodus sets stage for chaotic rebalancing act, Ron Bousso

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Apple announces price hikes on iPads and MacBooks, blaming surging memory chip costs, sending its stock down six percent. Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 add to nerves around the AI trade. A vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz briefly rattles oil markets before prices resume their slide. And JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is reported to be staying on for another three years.

Today’s recommended listen: Reuters Econ World - Fed talk

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Micron, one of the world's leading memory stocks, reports earnings roughly $5 billion above expectations and outlines $22 billion in customer commitments, reigniting the chip stock rally worldwide. Meanwhile, crude oil completes a dramatic round trip to pre-Iran-war levels, but two-year Treasury yields remain about 75 basis points higher than before the conflict began, suggesting the Fed's inflation challenge runs deeper than energy prices alone.

Today’s recommended read: Iran peace deal no silver bullet for Fed's inflation dilemma, Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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