What's Next For Markets

Inflation may be cooling faster than markets expect and the implications are big. This week, we sit down with Jake Oubina to break down why commodity shocks are fading, why core inflation is set to grind lower, and why the Fed may be done hiking for this cycle. We connect the dots from falling gas prices to improving consumer confidence, stronger job growth, and a potential tailwind for housing and rate-sensitive sectors. If this disinflation trend holds, it could mark a shift back toward a Goldilocks environment with lower rates, expanding multiples, and a much broader market rally.

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In this episode, we go deep into the mechanics of index construction with Jackson Venjohn Head Of Index Rebalancing At Piper Sandler. With hundreds of billions in forced buying and selling, the rise of passive investing has fundamentally changed how stocks trade, how liquidity forms, and how opportunities emerge. We unpack the largest rebalance cycle ever, and how blockbuster IPOs like SpaceX could reshape flows for years to come. If you want to understand what’s really moving markets beneath the surface, this is the conversation.

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In this episode, we unpack the profound shift reshaping markets: the transition from a growth-driven framework to one dominated by interest rates and inflation anxiety. What began in late 2023 as a simple observation—that falling rates lift equities while rising rates pressure them—has evolved into a full-blown regime change with deep historical parallels. We explore why “bad news” like softer economic data can now be bullish, how decades-old correlations have flipped, and what this means for positioning across sectors. With affordability pressures, a bifurcated consumer, and a massive AI-driven earnings backdrop all in play, this conversation breaks down the signals that matter, the risks that could disrupt the trend, and why this new paradigm may be with investors for years to come.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

Interest rates are once again the market’s main character and while headline indices sit near all-time highs, the story underneath is far less comfortable. In this episode, Michael unpacks the growing disconnect between index-level strength and deteriorating market breadth, We dig into the regime shift that’s made rates matter more than growth, the reflexive cycle between yields, economic data, and equities, and why both the worst and best market moves tend to cluster around turning points in rates. From the K-shaped economy to the constant whipsaw in Fed expectations, this conversation explores what clients are asking, what the data is actually saying, and where the biggest opportunities may be if rates finally start to ease.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, we’re joined by Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years.

Despite geopolitical tension, rising rates, and persistent inflation concerns, markets continue to push to new highs. Kevin shares what he’s hearing from investors across the country, from retail to institutional and why the gap between how people feel about the economy and what the data says may be the defining feature of this cycle.

We dig into the idea of a “vibepression,” where sentiment remains deeply negative even as growth and employment hold up, and explore why affordability—not job loss—is today’s central economic pressure point. The conversation also tackles the growing concentration in markets, the dominance of mega-cap tech, and why investors may be overlooking opportunities beneath the surface.

Kevin explains why diversification still matters, even in a world where a handful of stocks drive index returns, and how thinking in terms of themes—not sectors—can better capture where markets are headed. We also discuss whether today’s environment resembles past bubbles, how AI is reshaping both growth and inflation, and why interest rates—not earnings—may be the biggest risk to markets from here.

Finally, Kevin shares his framework for separating “front-page risk” from what actually impacts markets, along with his outlook for the months ahead and the key signals investors should be watching.