In this month’s episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker goes solo with his April Ramble, recorded just before a whirlwind travel schedule kicks off. He opens with an update on KROS, a position he's long, discussing the company’s surprising move to evaluate strategic alternatives and what it reveals about investor skepticism in the busted biotech space. Andrew continues with a candidcritique of the biotech sector’s structural inefficiencies, urging investors to push harder on corporate governance rather than avoid the "activist" label. From there, he explores how stock-based compensation can become more damaging when share prices fall and reflects on the mental and strategic discipline needed in volatile markets. He closes with thoughts on AI's evolving role in investment research and the importance of continuously improving one’s toolkit. ___________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Marketvolatility and initial thoughts on KROS[00:02:11] KROSstrategic alternatives announcement and investor response[00:03:25] Marketskepticism despite positive news at KROS[00:04:38]Encouraging shareholder engagement during the KROS review period[00:05:09]Ongoing biotech investments and calls for rationalization[00:06:25]Hesitancy from institutional investors to go activist[00:08:02]Challenges in pursuing activism and protecting future deal access[00:08:54] Thebroken incentives in biotech’s current market environment[00:10:22]Thoughts on stock-based compensation and company dilution[00:12:48] Howdeclining stock prices magnify dilution effects[00:14:06]April's turbulent market dynamics and investor behavior[00:15:13]Importance of maintaining process and staying focused[00:16:39]Evaluating portfolio risk/reward in volatile markets[00:17:23]Spotting opportunities through environmental changes like tariffs[00:20:06] Theimportance of staying in research mode during swings[00:21:17]Shifting focus to long-term projects when markets are too noisy[00:22:49]Leveraging AI for research efficiency and insights[00:24:41] Finalthoughts on adopting AI and its growing importance in investing[00:25:53]Preview of Andrew’s upcoming vacation and travel plans[00:26:27]Closing remarks and looking ahead to next month Links:See our legaldisclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
--------
28:00
Avoiding the Zombie Biopharm trap at Keros $KROS
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns for a solo discussion on Keros Therapeutics (KROS), a biotech firm navigating a dramatic fall from grace. Once buoyed by hopes for its leading drug Cybo (KER-012), KROS is now reeling from halted trials and a steep drop in share price. Andrew lays out the case for why this company, despite setbacks, may still hold considerable value. He explores KROS's licensing deal with Takeda, their significant cash reserves, and questions surrounding its future direction. Calling on shareholder alignment and corporate governance, Andrew challenges listeners to consider whether KROS is veering into zombie biotech territory—or poised for a smart pivot.Stat+ article on zombie biotechs and Sutro: https://www.statnews.com/2025/03/19/sutro-bio-biotech-luvelta/Chapters:[00:00:00] Sponsor and Intro[00:03:00] Recap of Sage Pharmaceuticals as a case study in shareholder value.[00:04:48] Introduction to KROS and its recent setbacks, including Cybo’s trial halt.[00:05:05] Defining the “zombie biotech” phenomenon and why it matters.[00:08:21] Misaligned incentives between management and shareholders in troubled biotechs.[00:10:04] Why KROS’s partnership with Takeda could be its most valuable asset.[00:13:14] Review of KROS’s three main drugs: Cybo, 065, and 050 (licensed to Takeda).[00:14:55] Risk-adjusted value potential of KROS’s royalties from Takeda deal.[00:17:01] Mixed data from 065 and skepticism from analysts.[00:18:09] Potential but doubtful value remaining in Cybo post-trial shutdown.[00:18:40] KROS’s massive cash balance vs. market cap and implications for shareholder returns.[00:20:05] Breakdown of 2023 overhead and burn rate concerns.[00:21:53] Call for drastic cost cuts and corporate reevaluation.[00:23:36] Analysis of board alignment and concern over lack of urgency.[00:25:44] Why KROS no longer needs a science-heavy board.[00:28:44] Shareholder engagement as a tool to prevent value destruction.[00:31:33] Encouragement for listeners to contact the board and advocate for value-maximizing outcomes.Links:See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
--------
34:47
Windward's Marc Chalfin Turtle Beach Thesis $TBCH
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Marc Chalfin of Windward Capital to discuss Turtle Beach. Known for its gaming headsets and peripherals, Turtle Beach is at the center of a compelling capital allocation story. Marc outlines why the company’s recent PDP acquisition, aggressive buyback strategy, and positioning ahead of the Nintendo Switch refresh and GTA VI release create a rare opportunity. He also breaks down the company’s corporate turnaround, supply chain adjustments, and potential paths to a strategic or private equity exit. If you’re following gaming or capital discipline stories, this one's for you.______________________________________________________________________[00:01:29] Marc Chalfin shares an update on Groupon and transitions to Turtle Beach[00:02:23] Introduction to Turtle Beach’s business model and market share in gaming peripherals[00:03:58] Market size, product dominance, and recent analyst coverage[00:05:46] Chalfin discusses the history of Turtle Beach, Donerail’s involvement, and management changes[00:10:01] Operational struggles from supply chain issues and lack of gaming software[00:11:30] Strategic acquisition of PDP and importance of Nintendo licensing[00:13:03] Financial upside: EBITDA expansion potential, buybacks, and capital structure[00:16:38] Addressing the commoditization concern in gaming hardware[00:18:02] Peer comparisons with Logitech and Corsair[00:20:20] Philosophy on capital allocation and shrinking the share count[00:23:09] Tariff headwinds and Turtle Beach’s supply chain response[00:25:28] Catalysts: Nintendo Switch refresh and GTA VI as revenue drivers[00:27:34] Chalfin explains the buyback slowdown and loan covenants[00:29:53] Long-term guidance and thoughts on sustainable revenue growth[00:31:21] Endgame scenario: strategic sale or private equity exit[00:36:28] Risks: liquidity and execution on buybacks[00:40:11] Timing of potential buybacks and views on tender offer strategy[00:43:27] Closing thoughts on alignment with management and capital return strategyLinks:Windward Capital: https://www.windwardmg.com/See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
--------
45:45
David Capital's Adam Patinkin Updates the Vistry Thesis $VTY
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Adam Patinkin of David Capital for his third appearance—this time for a much-requested update on British homebuilder and regeneration specialist Vistry (RY). Adam originally laid out a bold thesis in early 2024 that Vistry’s transition to a pure-play partnerships business could mirror the NVR success story. But after a string of profit warnings and a collapsing share price, listeners wanted answers. Adam walks through what went wrong, why the company’s current valuation doesn’t match its fundamentals, and why David Capital doubled its position. The discussion probes management credibility, capital allocation, and how UK government policy is now aligning with Vistry’s strategy.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Intro and sponsor message for upcoming AI & finance webinar [00:00:40] Andrew welcomes Adam Patinkin for a follow-up discussion on Vistry [00:01:29] Context and disclaimer before discussing UK-listed stock Vistry [00:02:18] Adam gives a quick overview and update on Vistry's journey in 2024 [00:02:58] Explanation of David Capital doubling their position in Vistry [00:03:59] The original investment thesis in Vistry: value plus catalyst approach [00:04:51] Breakdown of Vistry’s two segments: partnerships vs. housebuilding [00:06:58] Thesis: Transition to a pure-play partnerships business [00:08:34] Discussion on profit warnings and their impact on investor sentiment [00:10:13] Details of Vistry’s missteps and housebuilding write-downs [00:12:29] Analysis of the market's reaction to one-time losses [00:15:29] Third warning due to delayed land sales and management's response [00:16:34] Clarification of misunderstandings around ongoing losses [00:17:57] Adam frames the four-part thesis and which parts still hold [00:19:09] Reaffirmation of medium-term targets for partnerships [00:20:54] Discussion on pace of housebuilding exit and management's actions [00:23:34] Ongoing share buybacks and potential for expansion [00:24:37] Breakdown of customer segments in the partnerships business [00:26:19] UK government's budget and policy impact on affordable housing [00:31:14] Overview of supportive labor government housing initiatives [00:35:05] Cash flow expectations from capital employed reduction [00:36:29] Valuation commentary and mispricing opportunities [00:37:54] Assessment of credibility and investment upside [00:41:51] Discussion on net debt figures and transparency [00:43:40] Capital structure comparisons with other builders [00:46:21] Considerations around lower buybacks vs. future flexibility [00:49:10] Why Vistry still represents compelling value despite concerns [00:52:08] Differentiating Vistry from UK housebuilder peers [00:55:05] Clarification of the NAV not falling due to deferred land sales [00:57:21] Framing margin of safety by cash flows rather than asset base [00:59:54] Summary of company positioning, tailwinds, and outlook Links:Daloopa Webinar: daloopa.com/yavwebinarDavid Capital: https://davidpartners.com/See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
--------
1:00:55
Focus Capital Advisers' Mordechai Yavneh on the greatest acquisition of all time (Valeura Energy)
In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Mordechai, head of Focus Capital Advisers, for his third appearance. They unpack what Mordechai calls the greatest acquisition of all time—Valeura Energy's buyout of Gulf of Thailand oil assets. The two deals, acquired at rock-bottom prices, now generate more than their cost in monthly free cash flow. Mordechai explains theasset's unusual geology, the long-tail economics of its reserves, and why the market still doesn't get it. They also cover decommissioning liabilities, NAV versus market cap, and how management might pull off more high-conviction deals in the future.______________________________________________________________________[00:01:14]Introduction to Mordechai and his advisory work[00:03:18]Overview of Valeura Energy and its asset transformation[00:04:38]Initial acquisition of the Wassana oil field from bankruptcy[00:07:06]Financials and economics of the Wassana deal[00:08:37]Comparison of Thailand offshore to domestic offshore assets[00:12:15] Uniquereserve dynamics in the Gulf of Thailand[00:17:08] Secondacquisition: Mubadala's Gulf assets and deal terms[00:20:00] Whythe Mubadala acquisition defies logic[00:24:14]Background on how Valeura got such a favorable deal[00:27:02] Whydeals done during peak 2022 oil prices still look brilliant[00:30:50] Whythe market hasn’t fully caught on to Valeura’s upside[00:33:49]Variance between reported reserves and economic field life[00:39:13] Datashowing reserve replacement outpaces depletion[00:42:56]Concession expiration and risks around renewal[00:46:56] NAVanalysis and investor skepticism[00:50:26]Updates on decommissioning costs and projections[00:51:50]Operational improvements and field efficiencies[00:53:04]Organic growth through field development and platform expansion[00:57:32]Upcoming catalysts and appraisal-based expansion opportunities Links:Focus CapitalAdvisors: https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/homeSee our legaldisclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.
Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Ireland