Betfair Trading Community Podcast

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What happens if you back Over 3.5 Goals on every single football match?
No filters.
No league selection.
No trying to find the obvious goal-heavy games.
Just blindly back four or more goals every time and see what happens.
In this podcast, I test exactly that across two full years of football data.
We look at:
 The overall profit and loss 
 The strike rate 
 The average odds 
 The longest winning and losing runs 
 Which leagues performed best 
 Which leagues performed worst 
 Whether a few simple filters could improve the results 
Over 3.5 Goals is an interesting market because you get bigger prices than Over 2.5...
But obviously you need more to go right.
So does that extra price make up for the lower strike rate?
Or does blindly backing four goals just slowly chew through your bank?
That is what we find out.
If you want to test your own football trading ideas before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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Lay The Away Team has been around Betfair trading circles for years.
But that creates a pretty obvious question...
Does it still actually work?
In this episode, I put a Lay The Away Team strategy through historical data to see if there’s still an edge.
I break down:
 The exact strategy rules 
 The backtest results 
 Profit and ROI 
 Strike rate 
 Losing runs 
 The filters that made the biggest difference 
 Whether I’d actually trade it now 
Old strategies can look brilliant because people remember when they worked.
That doesn’t mean they still do.
Hit play and see what the data says.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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Under 3.5 Goals sounds like one of the simplest football strategies you could trade.
But simple does NOT automatically mean profitable.
So I put an Under 3.5 Goals strategy through the backtesting software to see what would actually happen over a large sample of matches.
And the results got interesting.
In this episode, I break down:
 The exact Under 3.5 Goals strategy 
 The backtested results 
 Profit and ROI 
 Strike rate 
 Losing runs 
 The filters that made the biggest difference 
 Whether I’d actually trade it going forward 
This is exactly why I like backtesting.
You can take an idea that sounds good in your head and find out whether the numbers actually agree.
Hit play and see how the strategy performed.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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In this episode, I’m breaking down the positives and negatives of an Over 2.5 Goals strategy on Betfair.
On the surface, it looks like one of the simplest football strategies out there.
You just need three goals.
Doesn’t matter who scores them. Doesn’t matter who wins. A 2-1, 3-0 or even 4-4 all do the job.
But simple doesn’t necessarily mean profitable.
I’ll look at:
Why Over 2.5 Goals is such an easy market to understand
Why there are so many potential qualifiers
The stats I’d actually test
Why “high-scoring teams” isn’t automatically an edge
The problem with lower strike rates and losing runs
Why the price you’re taking matters more than simply predicting goals
How I’d start backtesting an Over 2.5 strategy from scratch
The big question isn’t:
“Will this match have three goals?”
It’s:
“Is the chance of three goals higher than the odds suggest?”
That’s where things get interesting.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Send us Fan Mail
Can an Under 1.5 Goals strategy really be profitable on Betfair?
In this podcast, I go deep into one profitable Under 1.5 Goals strategy and break down exactly what makes it work.
This is not just a quick look at the headline profit.
We dig into:
 The exact strategy rules 
 The strike rate 
 Average odds 
 Overall profit and ROI 
 Winning and losing runs 
 Which leagues performed best 
 Which filters made the biggest difference 
 How consistent the results were 
 Whether I would actually forward test it 
Under 1.5 Goals can be a difficult market.
You only get one goal of breathing room, so getting the match selection and price right matters massively.
That is why backtesting is so important.
Instead of guessing which matches “look low scoring”, you can test the rules across years of football data and see whether there is actually an edge.
If you want to test your own football trading strategies before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity