Betfair Trading Community Podcast

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Can an Under 1.5 Goals strategy really be profitable on Betfair?
In this podcast, I go deep into one profitable Under 1.5 Goals strategy and break down exactly what makes it work.
This is not just a quick look at the headline profit.
We dig into:
 The exact strategy rules 
 The strike rate 
 Average odds 
 Overall profit and ROI 
 Winning and losing runs 
 Which leagues performed best 
 Which filters made the biggest difference 
 How consistent the results were 
 Whether I would actually forward test it 
Under 1.5 Goals can be a difficult market.
You only get one goal of breathing room, so getting the match selection and price right matters massively.
That is why backtesting is so important.
Instead of guessing which matches “look low scoring”, you can test the rules across years of football data and see whether there is actually an edge.
If you want to test your own football trading strategies before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
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Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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What happens if you back Over 4.5 Goals on every single football match?
No filters.
No picking the right leagues.
No looking for obviously high-scoring teams.
Just back Over 4.5 Goals every time and see what happens.
In this podcast, I test exactly that across two full years of football data.
We look at:
 The overall profit and loss 
 The strike rate 
 The average odds 
 The longest winning and losing runs 
 Which leagues performed best 
 Which leagues were absolute disasters 
 Whether a few simple filters could improve the results 
Over 4.5 Goals is an interesting market because the strike rate is much lower...
But the odds are much bigger.
So does that actually create an edge?
Or is blindly backing five or more goals just a very fast way to destroy your bank?
That is what the data tells us.
If you want to test your own football trading ideas before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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Can something as simple as backing the home team actually be profitable?
That is what we are testing in this episode.
The strategy was randomly generated...
Back the Home Win.
No complicated trading rules.
No fancy entry points.
Just take the market, put it through the football backtesting software, and see whether we can turn a ridiculously simple idea into something worth forward testing.
In this podcast, I look at:
 The starting Home Win results 
 Overall profit and ROI 
 Strike rate and average odds 
 Winning and losing runs 
 Which leagues performed best 
 The filters that improved the strategy 
 Whether I think there is actually an edge here 
This is exactly why I love backtesting.
You can start with almost any idea, test thousands of historical matches, then use the data to work out what deserves more attention.
Want to test your own football trading strategies before risking real money?
Check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Send us Fan Mail
Lay The Draw is one of the most famous Betfair football trading strategies ever.
But is LTD still worth trading in 2026?
In this podcast, I break down how the strategy works, where traders usually go wrong, and what the data says when you actually test it properly.
We cover:
 How Lay The Draw works 
 The type of matches that suit LTD 
 Entry and exit points 
 What happens if the game stays 0-0 
 The risks of late goals and stop losses 
 How to backtest LTD properly 
 Whether the strategy still has an edge in 2026 
The big mistake with LTD is thinking you can just find a short-priced favourite, lay the draw and hope for a goal.
That is not enough.
The edge comes from finding the right matches, understanding the risk and knowing exactly when you are getting out.
If you want to test your own Lay The Draw strategy before risking real money, you can use the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

Send us Fan Mail
Can Back The Draw still be a profitable Betfair trading strategy?
It is one of the simplest football trading ideas out there.
Find the right match.
Back the draw.
Then manage the trade depending on how the game plays out.
But simple does not mean easy... and it definitely does not mean profitable.
In this podcast, we backtest a Back The Draw strategy across years of football data to see whether the numbers actually stack up.
We look at:
• The overall profit and loss
• The strike rate
• The average odds
• The longest winning and losing runs
• Which leagues performed best
• Which filters made the biggest difference
• Whether the strategy is worth forward testing
The whole point is to remove the guesswork.
Instead of saying “this looks like a good draw game”, we can test the idea properly and see whether there is a real edge behind it.
If you want to test your own football trading strategies before risking money, you can use the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.
Support the show
Sign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/
Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity