Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.

Key takeaways

* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.
* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.
* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.
* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.
* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.

This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.

In this week’s episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.
Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.
Key takeaways
* Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.
* The Fed’s policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.
* Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.
* The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.
* Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.
* Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year.
 
Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area Economist
Stuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy
 
This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.
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In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.
Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.
The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe’s strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today’s headlines.
Key takeaways:
* A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.
* Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel’s elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.
* Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China’s military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.
* Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.
* Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.
* Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.
This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.
Key takeaways
Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.
US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.
Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.
UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.
Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.
Topics covered
Middle East geopolitical risk and market risk premium
Oil prices, shipping costs, and the Strait
US inflation and CPI data
Federal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony
UK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointment
Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech
Corporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companies
Questions this episode helps answer
What market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?