Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.
Key takeaways
Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.
US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.
Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.
UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.
Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.
Topics covered
Middle East geopolitical risk and market risk premium
Oil prices, shipping costs, and the Strait
US inflation and CPI data
Federal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony
UK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointment
Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech
Corporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companies
Questions this episode helps answer
What market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.
In this episode, we discuss:
Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.
ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.
Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.
Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.
France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen’s 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.
UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.
Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England’s latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated.
 For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what’s happening in the real economy?

In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.

Key takeaways

* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.
* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.
* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.
* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.
* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.
* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.

This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It’s a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England’s balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.
Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html