Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. Top on the agenda is Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Warsh’s speech will be watched for signals on rates, term premium and the Fed’s response to pressure for lower yields. Markets will also assess fiscal consolidation efforts and continued heavy sovereign issuance. In Europe, ECB minutes and inflation data will provide further clues on monetary policy. Japan is also important, with stronger inflation supporting the case for a September rate hike, while Deputy Governor guidance will be key. In the UK, NatWest maintains its November rate-hike call despite reduced market expectations.

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses are responding to renewed energy price pressures. Drawing on NatWest’s unique customer data, Seb explains why this time looks fundamentally different from 2022, why households have proved more resilient than expected, and why the biggest risks may lie in business confidence and investment rather than consumer spending.

Key takeaways

* The latest energy shock is significantly smaller than the 2022 crisis.
* Businesses are passing higher costs through more quickly than before.
* Consumers have adapted by reducing fuel consumption rather than simply paying higher prices.
* Mortgage refinancing remains manageable thanks to several years of wage growth.
* Inflation remains a greater concern than an immediate collapse in growth.
* The biggest risk is that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty delays hiring and investment.
* The UK economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than many expected.

Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guest: Seb Burnside, Chief Economist, NatWest Group

This episode was recorded on 15 July 2026

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.

Key takeaways

* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.
* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.
* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.
* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.
* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.

This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.

In this week’s episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.
Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.
Key takeaways
* Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.
* The Fed’s policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.
* Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.
* The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.
* Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.
* Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year.
 
Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area Economist
Stuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy
 
This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.
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For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html