The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

A remarkable week in FX markets saw the US Treasury join Japan’s intervention to support the yen – the first co-ordinated US currency intervention in around three decades. Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss why Washington took the unprecedented step, what it signals for US-Japan relations, and why intervention alone is unlikely to solve the yen’s structural challenges.
 
The discussion also explores China’s changing role in the global economy. After years of exporting deflation, China is now exporting higher prices in key sectors as policymakers encourage manufacturers to move up the value chain. 
 
Highlights:
 
* A historic intervention: The US Treasury joined Japan’s yen intervention for the first time in around 30 years, signalling strong political and strategic support for Japan.

* Intervention can only go so far: While coordinated intervention can stabilise markets in the short term, lasting yen strength will require changes in economic fundamentals, particularly Bank of Japan policy.

* Japan faces a policy balancing act: The government wants to support growth through fiscal stimulus, but markets are looking for tighter monetary policy and reassurance over Japan’s fiscal outlook.

* Rate differentials are no longer the whole story: Although narrowing US-Japan interest rate spreads should support the yen, investors are increasingly focused on fiscal policy and the outlook for Japanese government debt.

* China’s export model is evolving: Chinese manufacturers are shifting away from competing on price towards higher-value, higher-margin products, supported by industrial policy.

* China may no longer be exporting deflation: Rising export prices suggest China is beginning to export inflation instead, with potentially important consequences for global inflation and central bank policy.

* Industrial policy is reshaping global trade: Beijing is using tax policy, currency appreciation and targeted incentives to push manufacturers up the value chain and reduce reliance on low-cost exports.

* Replacing China’s low-cost manufacturing won’t be easy: Few economies have the scale or policy tools to replicate China’s manufacturing model, suggesting higher production costs could become a structural feature of the global economy.
 
Host: Eimear Daly, Emerging Markets Macro Strategist
Guest: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
 
This episode was recorded on 6 August 2026.
 
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This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to assess a pivotal week for global central banks and currency markets. They unpack the Bank of England’s policy decision to hold the base rate, analyse the market’s reaction to the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, discuss suspected Japanese FX intervention, and examine China’s latest signals for global growth and trade.
Key takeaways: 
* The Bank of England’s communication was interpreted as more dovish than its vote suggested.
* Sterling remains more sensitive to UK fiscal policy than interest-rate expectations.
* Suspected Japanese FX intervention highlights authorities’ concern over yen weakness but does not alter the longer-term fundamentals.
* Markets continue to grapple with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Kevin Warsh.
* China’s leadership remains focused on gradual, fiscally-led support while prioritising strategic industries over broad consumer stimulus.
 
Host: Eimear Daly, Emerging Markets Macro Strategist
Guests: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy 

This episode was recorded on 30 July 2026.
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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a whistle-stop tour of major currencies ahead of a flurry of central bank policy decisions next week.

Key takeaways

* Rising oil prices have become the primary driver of FX markets.
* Markets increasingly expect further rate hikes across several major economies.
* The ECB remains on course for possible tightening if energy prices stay elevated.
* The Bank of England’s debate centres on timing rather than direction.
* Fiscal credibility will be an increasingly important factor for sterling.
* The Federal Reserve is likely to provide little forward guidance despite hawkish market pricing.
* Structural reforms, rather than intervention alone, may ultimately determine the yen’s outlook.

Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 23 July 2026.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss yet more sterling outperformance. While UK rates continue to support the currency, the discussion focuses on politics and fiscal credibility as the dominant drivers for sterling over the coming months.
The pair also examine softer-than-expected US inflation data, asking whether this could mark a turning point for Federal Reserve expectations and the US dollar. Finally, they explore developments in Japan, where policymakers are considering ways to encourage domestic investment in government bonds—potentially creating longer-term support for the yen. 
Key takeaways:
* Political and fiscal developments remain the dominant influence on sterling, with the Autumn Budget likely to become the next major catalyst.
* NatWest’s Bank of England outlook remains unchanged despite recent geopolitical developments.
* Softer US inflation could represent an important shift in the macro narrative if confirmed by future data releases.
* Markets may have become too optimistic on the US dollar after several months of strong economic surprises.
* Japan appears to be exploring longer-term structural measures to support its bond market and currency, rather than relying solely on foreign exchange intervention.
 
Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.
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Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets. 
They discuss:
Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows.
How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year.
Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet.
How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment.
Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations.
Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year.
What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.
Why Japan’s fiscal and monetary mix remains a major headwind for the yen.
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This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026.
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