The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a whistle-stop tour of major currencies ahead of a flurry of central bank policy decisions next week.

Key takeaways

* Rising oil prices have become the primary driver of FX markets.
* Markets increasingly expect further rate hikes across several major economies.
* The ECB remains on course for possible tightening if energy prices stay elevated.
* The Bank of England’s debate centres on timing rather than direction.
* Fiscal credibility will be an increasingly important factor for sterling.
* The Federal Reserve is likely to provide little forward guidance despite hawkish market pricing.
* Structural reforms, rather than intervention alone, may ultimately determine the yen’s outlook.

Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 23 July 2026.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss yet more sterling outperformance. While UK rates continue to support the currency, the discussion focuses on politics and fiscal credibility as the dominant drivers for sterling over the coming months.
The pair also examine softer-than-expected US inflation data, asking whether this could mark a turning point for Federal Reserve expectations and the US dollar. Finally, they explore developments in Japan, where policymakers are considering ways to encourage domestic investment in government bonds—potentially creating longer-term support for the yen. 
Key takeaways:
* Political and fiscal developments remain the dominant influence on sterling, with the Autumn Budget likely to become the next major catalyst.
* NatWest’s Bank of England outlook remains unchanged despite recent geopolitical developments.
* Softer US inflation could represent an important shift in the macro narrative if confirmed by future data releases.
* Markets may have become too optimistic on the US dollar after several months of strong economic surprises.
* Japan appears to be exploring longer-term structural measures to support its bond market and currency, rather than relying solely on foreign exchange intervention.
 
Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets. 
They discuss:
Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows.
How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year.
Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet.
How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment.
Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations.
Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year.
What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.
Why Japan’s fiscal and monetary mix remains a major headwind for the yen.
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This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on Currency Exchange, the team discusses the market implications of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the outlook for the US dollar following a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated rate hike, and growing concerns about potential Japanese FX intervention.
Key takeaways
* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh was interpreted as hawkish, largely because Warsh declined to counterbalance a more hawkish committee message. 
* The FOMC dot plot surprised markets, with half of participating members projecting rate hikes in 2026 and several favouring multiple increases.
* NatWest no longer expects Fed rate cuts this year, providing near-term support for the US dollar, although markets may still be overpricing tightening risks.
* The Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 1.0% was fully anticipated and had little market impact, partly due to Governor Ueda’s absence and limited forward guidance.
* Japanese intervention risks remain elevated as USD/JPY stays near multi-decade highs, but Japan’s accommodative fiscal and monetary policy mix continues to argue for underlying yen weakness.
 
Host: Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist)
Guest: Brian Daingerfield (Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy)
 
You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen.
 
Key topics:
 
* FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an intense period of central bank and geopolitical risk.
* The ECB remains cautious and highly dependent on developments in energy markets.
* The Bank of England is unlikely to act next week but remains under pressure from persistent inflation concerns.
* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh could mark an important shift in communication strategy.
* Dollar strength has been supported by better US data, but expectations may now be running ahead of reality.
* The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, but markets remain focused on whether policymakers are willing to defend the yen more aggressively.
 
 
You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
 
This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.
 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
 
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html