In this lookahead to 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss key themes shaping the year ahead. They start with the dollar, where 2026 is expected to be dominated by the Fed’s interest rate policy. Should we expect a policy error if rates are kept low under new Fed leadership and continued fiscal expansion? And what, crucially, does this mean for the dollar's exceptional status in foreign reserves? They also discuss how FX markets have become desensitised to geopolitical drama, only reacting when real economic effects are visible. And in emerging markets, lower volatility and a weaker dollar appear to create a favourable backdrop for high-carry currencies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
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27:52
An October cut by the Fed, but what for December?
On the back of the Fed’s widely-predicted decision to cut rates this week, Eimear Daly speaks to Brian Daingerfield about changes to the monetary guidance, and how this feeds indecision about a further cut in December. Elsewhere they talk about Japan’s currency, and the structural versus cyclical nature of monetary policy in Canada.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
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14:30
Our take on major global currencies
In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on UK inflation data, the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook, the upcoming UK budget, and the performance of sterling. They also touch on the European Central Bank's position, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, the Bank of Japan's policy considerations, and the Canadian economy's inflation data. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global economic indicators and their impact on currency markets.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
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26:39
Budgets, politics and market moves
In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the UK budget, European currency outlook, US trade tensions, the impact of the government shutdown, and Japanese politics. Phew! They also explore how fiscal and monetary policies are influencing currency movements globally. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
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What Japan's elections mean for the yen
In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent LDP leadership election in Japan, its impact on the yen, and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. They also explore the potential coalition dynamics and the Bank of Japan's decision-making process amid political uncertainty.This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
About The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest
Keep up to date with the latest in FX markets with The Currency Exchange podcast. Each week, the NatWest Markets team of FX strategists – Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson – help investment professionals and corporate treasurers get to grips with the biggest themes & events moving global currency markets. Check back here regularly for new episodes and subscribe to The Currency Exchange wherever you get your podcasts so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available.
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