The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run? 
This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.
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This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments.
Key topics covered:
1. Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets
2. Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks
3. US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations for Fed and Bank of Japan actions
This episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.
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FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations. 
With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.
In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?
Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.
This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.
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This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility.
Key topics covered:
1. Market reactions to the Middle East conflict
2. The US dollar and market positioning
3. Sterling’s surprising resilience
4. The Yen and fiscal considerations
5. Lasting themes for currency markets 
This episode was recorded on 26 March 2026.
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This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets. 

This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html