The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

A Brazilian congressman runs a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army." This week it passed ten million followers, part of a late surge that has turned a race Lula was losing into a near tie. Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics maps what Sunday's runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro decides: who fills at least three of the Supreme Court's eleven seats, whether anyone fixes debt rules built for an age of runaway inflation, and who controls the world's second-largest rare earth reserves - where an American company has agreed to buy a mine. Monica is extremely confident in at least one thing: "The potential to disappoint is enormous."
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(00:00) - Intro/Welcome
(01:20) - A race that flipped in three weeks
(03:33) - Meta, WhatsApp and the online campaign
(05:39) - Supreme Court seats and the Orbán comparison
(09:47) - Lula's record, and the market's hope for a Brazilian Milei
(15:40) - Why Brazil's interest rates are so high
(21:24) - The reforms nobody will make
(26:09) - Washington, Beijing and Brazil's new trade deals
(33:36) - Can Brazil lead? Rare earths and a mine in Goiás
(41:46) - Why micro-entrepreneurs left Lula
(47:14) - The military and Brazil's regional role
(51:36) - "The potential to disappoint is enormous"
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil from the other direction. The wealthy world didn’t pull the laggards forward; it declined to meet them. A shrinking middle class, patrimonial politics, collapsing trust, gated condominiums and open sewers alongside WhatsApp. This is Brazilianization, and Hochuli joins from São Paulo days after Lula’s loss in the first round to explain what it looks like from inside. A bleak conversation, honestly held - and one that argues the center didn’t get stolen from. It ran out of things to say.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro
01:45 Alex Journey to Brazil
04:05 Election Shock and Polls
06:57 Why Voters Want Change
10:07 Lula Coalition and Constraints
12:54 Security and Cost of Living
15:28 Brazil in Regional Context
19:18 Scandals and Hyper Online Politics
23:02 Where Did the Left Go
24:03 Work Precarity and New Aspirations
28:50 Gambling Faith and Get Rich Culture
32:04 Evangelical Surge Explained
34:51 Urban Insecurity and Community
36:20 Religion Shifts Politics Right
37:18 Brazilianization Goes Global
38:44 Modernization Ends and Decay
43:48 Flexibility Era Revisited
45:45 China as an Exception
50:13 US China and Brazil Voice
53:46 Why Brazil Lacks a Project
57:10 Identity Crisis and Interior Boom
59:38 Hope Interregnum and Rightward Energy
01:03:21 Closing Anecdotes and Farewell
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.
We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.
General Context:
Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.
Modern Conflict Timeline:
1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.

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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia
(03:33) - Development Model Shift
(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC
(09:13) - New War Regional Risks
(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF
(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam
(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter
(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere
(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained
(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones
(38:07) - What Happens Next
(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters
(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags
(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership
(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom
(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears
(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection
(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter
(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe
(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall
(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History
(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt
(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk
(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole
(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules
(35:03) - Universities Under Strain
(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play
(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation
(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players
(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash
(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer
(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Podcast Welcome
(00:44) - Recording In Amazon
(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima
(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia
(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop
(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed
(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal
(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move
(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet
(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region
(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox
(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing
(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves
(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region
(36:58) - Security As A Pretext
(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint
(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0
(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model
(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission
(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands
(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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