Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Max's website: https://maxchiswick.com/Max's startup for AI and Game Strategy: https://overbet.ai/The Expected Value Foundation & poker camp course: https://expectedvalue.org/Patrick's Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/–Twitter:@chisness@patio11-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Max's background and journey into poker(03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent(06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making(07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space(09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning(10:59) Online poker history(16:14) Understanding multitabling(21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation(22:55) Sponsor: Check(26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives(29:47) Playing a million hands in a month(37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization(43:35) Poker complexity(45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker(45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees(49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education(50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots(53:05) Wrap –Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boomThe Diff  https://diff.substack.comCapital Gains  https://capitalgains.thediff.co/The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg–Twitter:@byrnehobart@patio11-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation(01:08) Economic growth and productivity(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D(07:31) The role of government and private sector(13:42) Sponsor: Check(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis(32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath(44:06) The housing bubble(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments(01:00:22) Crypto(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models(01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’(01:42:57) Wrap Help shape Complex Systems by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance.–Full transcript available here: https://complexsystemspodcast.com/money-movement-erik-torenberg–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits about Money - Bank Transfers https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/bank-transfers-as-a-payment-method/Bits about Money - Stablecoins https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/stablecoin-mechanisms-and-use-cases/–Twitter:@patio11@eriktorenberg-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:49) What is money?(02:39) How money moves(06:00) Banking and correspondent accounts(07:59) Clearing houses and payment systems(12:09) The gold standard and fractional reserve banking(18:15) Introduction to stablecoins(19:38) Sponsor: Check(21:31) Stablecoin models and issues(27:30) Crypto skepticism and innovations(30:53) Regulatory arbitrage and future of money(36:36) Wrap Help shape Complex Systems by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/ –Sponsors: Manifold Markets | CheckManifold is my favorite prediction market platform, making it easy to bet on anything from elections to crypto drama. Get started with a bonus at https://manifold.markets/complexsystems when you spend $20. Play money markets open to anyone; cash prizes only available to U.S. residents of at least 18 years of age. Terms and conditions apply.Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Ross' newsletter: https://essays.soletta.vc Ross' blog post on drug development costs: https://blog.rossry.net/100x/Ross' blog post on lessons from thalidomide https://blog.rossry.net/thalidomide/ –Twitter:@patio11@_rossry–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:28) Ross’ career transition to drug development(03:12) The drug development process(06:22) Clinical trials and FDA approval(11:48) Challenges in clinical trials(14:50) Case study: COVID-19 trials(18:00) Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check(19:55) Pharmaceutical economics(38:13) Rare diseases and regulatory strategies(45:18) Advanced market commitments explained(45:54) Operation warp speed and its impact(47:45) How to get accelerated approvals(52:49) The thalidomide tragedy and its legacy(01:03:17) Modern regulatory challenges and patient advocacy(01:07:14) Reviving abandoned drugs(01:12:06) Innovative approaches to drug trials(01:24:26) The future of pharmaceutical development(01:26:34) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/