"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI

04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite

09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic

12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk

16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI

17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat

24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs?

28:41 - Outro

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Sponsor: NetSuite

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more.
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- Discussion opened with comparisons between AI's impact on various professions, particularly radiology
- America's murder rate is approximately 5x higher than Europe and 10x higher than Asia, making it a significantly more violent country
- Crime has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, shifting from impulsive juvenile offenses to organized, profit-driven enterprises
- Foreign criminal organizations operate with different specialties: South American gangs focus on narcotics, firearms, and use drones for reconnaissance
- Geographic spread: American cities are too suburban for effective foot patrols, forcing police to drive instead - foot patrols are proven to be more effective deterrents
- Gun availability: While firearms make approximately a 2x difference in murder rates, eliminating all guns (which would be extremely difficult) would only get America halfway to European safety levels
- Americans have restructured their entire lives around crime avoidance, creating costs not captured in crime statistics
- Deterrence through likelihood of capture: Research shows criminals are deterred by the likelihood of getting caught, not by severity of punishment
- Garrett compared criminal behavior to children - they commit crimes because they think they'll get away with it, not because punishment is insufficient
- Cameras create permanent records that make crime detection highly likely, fundamentally changing the risk calculus
- Even with permissive DAs or judges, the existence of video evidence creates accountability
- Japan achieved approximately a 5x reduction in crime through widespread camera deployment
- Cameras effectively ended many categories of street crime, with criminals openly acknowledging they "can't commit crimes, there's cameras everywhere"
- Reduced crime would save cities enormous costs - San Francisco could save approximately $1 billion by reducing crime to Asian standards
- Noah emphasized that "law and order" rhetoric won't work in liberal cities - need a different framing
- The progressive case for surveillance: Enables walkable neighborhoods and vibrant urbanism
- Some American cities don't believe crime is a serious problem, viewing current levels as acceptable
- These cities will likely experience declining populations and tax bases, creating a downward spiral until they recognize the need for action
- Cities that resist camera technology often have underlying trust issues with their local government
- In communities where residents trust their elected officials want them to succeed, camera adoption is widely embraced
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
3:00 - The State of Crime in America
6:04 - Crime Statistics Debate
10:59 - The Solution: Cameras Everywhere
12:15 - Sponsors: Notion | NetSuite
17:00 - How Deterrence Really Works
19:35 - Japan's Success with Cameras
22:46 - Privacy and Cultural Trade-offs
25:50 - Sponsor: Found
38:35 - Economic Benefits and Policy
44:19 - Closing Thoughts
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.
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Notion
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Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents
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Timestamps:
00:00 — Introduction
00:24 — Europe and Russia
03:02 — China and Electric Cars
04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict
06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel
09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement
22:50 — Staffers and Extremism
24:25 – Sponsor: Found
25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani
31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics
34:11 — Race and Identity
38:06 — Islam and Immigration
38:44 — Identitarian Populism
41:44 — Closing Thoughts
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.
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Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy
09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context
13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception
24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities
28:10 – Sponsor: Found
41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence
56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits
1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro
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Listen to the Sphere Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.
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Sponsors:
Notion
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AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlines

Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to mining
Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how

China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term
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Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.