"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.
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Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents
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Timestamps:
00:00 — Introduction
00:24 — Europe and Russia
03:02 — China and Electric Cars
04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict
06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel
09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement
22:50 — Staffers and Extremism
24:25 – Sponsor: Found
25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani
31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics
34:11 — Race and Identity
38:06 — Islam and Immigration
38:44 — Identitarian Populism
41:44 — Closing Thoughts
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https://x.com/eriktorenberg
https://x.com/Noahpinion
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.
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Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy
09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context
13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception
24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities
28:10 – Sponsor: Found
41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence
56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits
1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro
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Listen to the Sphere Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ
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Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_en
Noah - https://x.com/Noahpinion
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.
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Sponsors:
Notion
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AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlines

Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to mining
Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how

China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term
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Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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FOLLOW on X:
https://x.com/eriktorenberg
https://x.com/Noahpinion
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.
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https://x.com/eriktorenberg
https://x.com/Noahpinion
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.
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AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories
Quotes:
"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg
LINKS:
The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠
Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠
Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected]
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