Forward Guidance

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.

Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.

We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency

18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?

22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand

27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening

32:03 The Memory Bottleneck

37:07 AI’s Next Phase

FOLLOW STEVE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

› Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.

This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.

We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets

12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?

16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade

19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze

23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure

29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?

35:29 Can Value Finally Win?

40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk

48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.

This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.

We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:00 Trading Outside The Box

06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk

12:46 AI As A Trading Tool

19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets

25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed

33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook

41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?

43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?

FOLLOW BRENT

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent

› Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

› Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.

This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.

We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?

12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive

14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report

18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?

24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?

27:54 How We're Trading This

32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?

38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech

40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto

44:17 July 4th And The World Cup

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.

This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.

We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:04 Bob's Macro Background

09:21 Data-Driven Macro

13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead

16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility

21:13 Why Data Matters Even More

25:35 The Two Trades In Rates

33:16 Balance Sheet Games

37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop

43:32 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW BOB

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro

› Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.