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Forward Guidance

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Forward Guidance
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606 episodes

  • Forward Guidance

    Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes

    03/06/2026 | 46 mins.
    While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.

    David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.

    We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!

    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro

    06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity

    09:58 Supply Chains Shift To Resilience

    13:13 Consumer Resilience Mystery

    19:19 What Funds The Consumer?

    22:44 Why The Recession Never Comes

    25:55 The Fed Rethinking Hikes

    32:19 Warsh Inheriting Inflation Fight

    38:07 Bonds, Equities And Rates

    41:17 Can Stocks Ignore Rates?

    44:21 The Korea Trade

    FOLLOW DAVID

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/EconstratPB

    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
  • Forward Guidance

    How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup

    29/05/2026 | 49 mins.
    This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?

    (07:53) The AI Productivity Boom

    (14:28) An Update On Market Structure

    (18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling

    (36:21) How To Trade This Market

    --

    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    --

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
  • Forward Guidance

    Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup

    21/05/2026 | 52 mins.
    This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off

    (14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?

    (29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive

    (38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs

    --

    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    --

    RESOURCES

    › https://docsend.com/view/62t43sp222nsvqzg

    › Dell Children's Donation – ⁠https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061⁠

    --

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
  • Forward Guidance

    The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup

    15/05/2026 | 52 mins.
    Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.

    This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.

    We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!

    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser

    05:55 Monster Earnings And AI

    07:59 Is This A Bubble?

    12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel

    14:56 Frothy AI Positioning

    20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail

    27:17 Main Street Is Breaking

    31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets

    34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl?

    39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI?

    42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal

    47:02 Populism Against AI Politics

    51:55 $10k Donation Goal

    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing

    › Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061

    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
  • Forward Guidance

    The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

    13/05/2026 | 48 mins.
    AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

    Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

    We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:54 The Real Inflation Story

    06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

    08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

    12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks

    14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion

    19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate

    22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk

    26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data

    29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?

    36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed

    45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy

    48:14 Final Thoughts

    FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC

    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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About Forward Guidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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