The Art of Investing

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham return after an intriguing week in markets to debate a major shift in positioning.
With Japan surging, emerging markets breaking higher, software stocks wobbling and AI disruption accelerating, the team asks a big question: Are we rotating from tech into old-world value, and is private equity the next risk?
Expect macro insight, portfolio reshuffling, and a full breakdown of where capital is moving next.

This Week’s Highlights
🇯🇵 Japan Breakout
A landslide election victory fuels fiscal stimulus hopes. The Nikkei jumps nearly 9% on the week, lifting the portfolio sharply.
💻 Software Shock
A small AI tax tool sparks a broader sell-off across software, wealth management and private equity-linked names. Is this the start of margin compression?
🏦 The 100-Year Bond Warning
Alphabet issues a 100-year bond, massively oversubscribed. CJ calls it a red flag for complacency in credit markets.
🪙 Crypto Contrarian Signal?
Bitcoin weakens again, but ultra-bearish headlines may suggest positioning is stretched.
🌍 Europe & Emerging Markets Strength
Euro Stoxx indices hit highs as investors rotate away from expensive US tech into industrial and value-heavy regions.
🇬🇧 UK Politics & Gilts
Political uncertainty continues, reinforcing caution on long-dated UK bonds.

Portfolio Snapshot: Week 26
Weekly performance: +1.62%
Total return since inception: +16.86%

Top Performers
🥇 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +8.5%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +5.2%
🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +3.2%

Underperformers
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +0.3%
📉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: +0.3%
📉 Cash: +0.1%
Despite broad gains across equities, Japan and mining stocks drove the bulk of weekly performance, while defensive assets lagged as risk appetite improved.

Big Questions the Team Debate
• Is AI about to compress software margins?
• Are private equity valuations vulnerable?
• Is Japan Thatcher… or Liz Truss?
• Are we early in a rotation toward Europe and EM?
• Is extreme negativity on crypto a contrarian buy signal?

What You’ll Learn
✔ Why markets “travel” before they arrive
✔ How fiscal stimulus drives equity multiples
✔ Why 100-year bonds can signal complacency
✔ The difference between AI hype and AI implementation
✔ How to rotate portfolios without increasing overall risk

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald and Mark “Spice” Holden are joined by JP Smith for a wide-ranging and timely discussion on one of the most volatile weeks markets have seen in months.
With gold and silver suffering brutal flash crashes, crypto tumbling, US tech rotating hard, and a surprise nomination for the next Fed Chair rattling liquidity expectations, the team unpack what’s really going on beneath the surface, and how investors can spot early warning signs before markets move fast.
From AI capex concerns and stretched US valuations to volatility indicators, liquidity conditions and portfolio protection, this episode is a masterclass in navigating late-cycle markets.

This Week’s Market Highlights
📉 Gold & Silver Flash Crash
Precious metals suffer violent reversals as margin hikes, positioning pressure and liquidity fears collide.
💻 Tech Rotation Accelerates
US software and AI leaders sell off sharply as markets reassess capex spending and future returns.
🔄 Money Rotates, Not Flees
Capital flows out of mega-cap tech into small- and mid-cap US equities, Europe and Japan.
🪙 Crypto Volatility Returns
Bitcoin slides sharply, dragging crypto-linked equities with it, highlighting broken correlations with gold.
🏦 Fed Chair Shock
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, spooking markets with fears of tighter liquidity and less QE.
📊 Volatility Back on the Radar
The VIX becomes a key signal once again, with the team explaining how professionals actually use it.

Portfolio Snapshot
Weekly performance: –1.1%
Total return since inception: +15.24%

Top Performers
🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF: +5.0%
🥈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +2.5%
🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +1.0%

Underperformers
📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –21.3%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust: –9.4%
📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: –3.1%

Key Portfolio Decision
🔄 Reducing US Mega-Cap Exposure
Sold half of the Nasdaq position (–2.5%)
Reallocated into US small caps via the Russell 2000
Why?
Small- and mid-cap companies are better positioned to benefit if economic activity broadens and rate cuts resume later this year.
Updated US exposure now favours diversification over concentration.

What Investors Learn in This Episode
✔️ Why gold and silver can fall fast, even in bull markets
✔️ How margin changes and liquidity shocks trigger violent moves
✔️ Why AI capex is now being treated as a risk, not a reward
✔️ How professionals use the VIX to manage risk
✔️ The difference between a healthy rotation and a market breakdown
✔️ When cash and short-dated bonds become powerful tools
✔️ Why small caps may be the next phase of the US cycle

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly market insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
Get up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.
Earn 1% cashback up to £300k when you transfer your ISA before 5th April.
Use Promo Code ISAPODCAST
New share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs :www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-feb-26

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by JP Smith, veteran emerging markets strategist and former Chief Global Strategist at Pictet, for a deep dive into the forces shaping global markets, and where investors may be underestimating risk.
From Russia’s 1998 crisis to China’s governance problem, US dollar fragility and the future of emerging markets, this episode blends hard market insight with frontline experience from one of the world’s most seasoned emerging markets voices.
Expect history, geopolitics, sharp disagreement, and a rare behind-the-scenes look at how market crises really unfold.

This Week’s Highlights:
🌍 Emerging Markets in Focus
Why emerging markets have surged, and why today’s emerging markets index looks nothing like the one investors remember.
🇷🇺 Lessons From Russia
JP recounts calling the 1998 Russian crisis early, and what investors consistently miss before major blow-ups.
🇨🇳 China’s Governance Problem
Dilution, state intervention and why earnings haven’t matched economic growth.
💵 The Dollar Debate
Is US dollar weakness structural, or just noise? A heated discussion on debt, politics and confidence.
🏦 Central Banks & Credibility
From Japan’s bond market intervention to the Fed’s independence under pressure.
⚠️ Tail Risks Are Rising
Why gold, silver and commodities may be signalling something markets are ignoring.

Portfolio Snapshot:
Weekly performance: +0.1%
Total return since inception: +16.4%

Top Performers (WoW):
🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +4.5%
🥈 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: +1.7%
🥉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: +1.5%

Underperformers:
💷 Cash: +0.1%
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –0.3%
🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF: –2.6%

Big Questions the Team Debate
• Are emerging markets finally investable again, or just riding the AI cycle?
• Is China uninvestable, misunderstood… or both?
• Could the US start behaving like an emerging market politically?
• Is gold a warning sign or simply reflecting dollar weakness?
• Should investors hedge tail risks more aggressively?

What You’ll Learn
✔️ How market crises actually develop on the ground
✔️ Why governance matters more than growth
✔️ How dollar weakness feeds through to emerging markets assets
✔️ Why diversification is back in focus
✔️ How professionals think about risk when markets look “fine”

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly market insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
Get up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.
Earn 1% cashback up to £300k when you transfer your ISA before 5th April.

Use Promo Code ISAPODCAST

New share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs :www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-feb-26

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham unpack one of the most volatile macro weeks of the year, from Japan’s bond market shock to Trump’s Davos comments, rising geopolitical tension, and a sharp shift in momentum across assets.

With Japanese yields spiking to multi-decade highs, markets wobbling on Greenland headlines, and gold once again leading the leaderboard, the team debate whether this is a temporary scare… or the early warning signs of something bigger. Crucially, they also make a major portfolio decision, raising cash and reassessing risk after a strong run of returns.

Expect macro depth, proper portfolio debate, and a real-time look at how professional investors react when markets move fast.

This Week’s Highlights:
🇯🇵 Japan Bond Shock
40-year Japanese government bond yields spike, triggering global bond and equity volatility.

🌍 Geopolitics Returns
Greenland, NATO tensions and Trump’s Davos comments briefly rattle markets before a sharp relief rally.

📉 Momentum Rotates
Gold and mining stocks surge while crypto and copper lag as capital chases safety and trend.

🪙 Crypto vs Gold
Bitcoin slides while gold hits new highs, reigniting the “digital gold” debate.

🏦 Central Bank Power
The Bank of Japan draws a clear line in the sand, reminding markets who’s really in control.

Portfolio Snapshot:
Weekly performance: –0.7%
Total return since inception: +15.5%

Top Performers (WoW)
🥇 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +4.83%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +2.54%
🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +1.14%

Underperformers (WoW)
📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –4.66%
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –4.15%
📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –3.49%

Big Decisions This Week:
🔄 Raising Cash
The team reduce exposure to gold and US equities, moving 10% of the portfolio into cash to reassess risk after strong gains.

💬 Live Debate
Should profits be locked in after a big run, or is stepping aside the biggest risk of all?

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why Japan’s bond market matters far beyond Tokyo
✔️ How central banks really control market stress
✔️ Why momentum dominates during uncertain periods
✔️ When raising cash is smart, and when it’s costly
✔️ How professionals manage portfolios during fast-moving macro shocks

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive
Move your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.
1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026
The maximum payout is £2,000.

Your capital is at risk. New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and regular commentator on CNBC, Fox News and Bloomberg. Tune in to talk what really matters in markets right now, and what most investors are still missing.
With geopolitics flaring, commodities surging, and uncertainty everywhere from Washington to Tokyo, the team unpack the difference between cyclical noise and structural change, and why traditional economic playbooks may no longer work. Expect deep macro insight, plenty of laughs, and a fresh way of thinking about inflation, labour markets, AI, and the future of growth.

This Week’s Highlights
🌍 Geopolitics Everywhere
Trump, Iran, Venezuela and Greenland keep markets on edge, with slow-burn risks proving harder to price than headline shocks.
⛏️ Commodities Take the Lead
Gold, silver, copper and mining stocks power higher as inflation hedging, geopolitics and supply constraints collide.
🏦 Banks & Bonds in Focus
US bank earnings beat expectations, but political pressure on credit card rates rattles lenders and investors.
🪙 Crypto Stabilises
Bitcoin rebounds, helped by renewed institutional buying and improving sentiment after recent volatility.
🇯🇵 Japan Breaks the Trend
A snap election sends the yen lower and Japanese bond yields higher, the only major market seeing rising yields this week.

Special Guest: Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, joins the team to explain why the old business cycle framework is breaking down, and what should replace it.
She covers:
Why mass retirements are reshaping labour markets
How demographics are flattening economic cycles
Why inflation risks haven’t disappeared, just gone quiet
The rise of “structural” growth drivers like healthcare, AI and government spending
Why Canada may be far better positioned in the new global order than many investors realise
Plus: why economists got 2023 so wrong, and what they need to do differently going forward.

Portfolio Snapshot
Weekly performance: +1.9%
Total return since inception: +16.2%

Top Performers:
🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +6.4%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +4.7%
🥉 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +2.3%
⛏️ WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.0%

Underperformers:
📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: -1.4%
📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -0.5%
📉 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: -0.5%
📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: -0.4%

What You’ll Learn
✔️ Why demographics matter more than GDP cycles
✔️ How retirements are changing inflation and growth dynamics
✔️ Why traditional recession indicators failed
✔️ How geopolitics really feeds into asset prices
✔️ Why diversification is finally paying off again

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive
Move your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.

1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026
The maximum payout is £2,000.

Your capital is at risk. New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26