The Art of Investing

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham unpack a volatile week as geopolitical tensions, banking sector nerves and shifting energy policy collide.
Despite rising uncertainty, from renewed conflict fears to credit market concerns, the portfolio remains resilient. The team discuss whether markets are overreacting, why bank stocks sold off, and what investors should focus on during volatility.
They revisit lessons from past geopolitical shocks and explain why disciplined portfolio construction matters more than reacting to headlines.
Expect sharp macro insight and a clear breakdown of how the team are thinking about risk right now.

This Week’s Highlights:
⚠️ Credit Crisis Fears?
Bank stocks fall as markets briefly price in tighter credit conditions.
🌍 Geopolitics Back in Focus
Rising tensions bring geopolitical risk back to markets.
🇷🇺 Lessons from Russia
Revisiting the 2022 collapse in Russian assets and its lessons.
⛽ Energy Policy Confusion
Governments tax oil producers while calling for more supply.
📉 Market Volatility Returns
Sector swings highlight diversification.
🧠 Staying Rational in Turbulence
Why reacting emotionally to headlines often backfires.

Portfolio Snapshot:
Weekly performance: –2.1%
Total return since inception: +16.6%

Top Performers
🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +4.0%
🥈 Cash: +0.1%
🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: –0.1%

Underperformers
📉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: –5.7%
📉 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: –5.1%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: –5.0%

Portfolio Positioning:
The portfolio remains positioned toward:
• Commodities and real assets
• Global equities beyond US mega-cap concentration
• Select small and mid-cap exposure
• Defensive allocations including gilts and cash
The aim remains building a diversified portfolio able to navigate uncertain markets.

Big Questions the Team Debate:
• Are markets overreacting to fears of a credit slowdown?
• How should investors think about geopolitical shocks?
• What lessons came from the Russian market collapse?
• Why energy policy contradictions could shape inflation
• How diversification helps absorb market shocks

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why banking sector moves can trigger market anxiety
✔️ How geopolitical risk affects portfolios
✔️ Why diversification matters during volatility
✔️ The dangers of reacting emotionally to headlines
✔️ How long-term investors should approach risk

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham unpack a strong week for the portfolio, led by commodities, emerging markets and continued European resilience.
While the US debates tariffs and policy direction, global equity markets are pushing higher. Mining stocks surge, crypto stabilises, emerging markets extend gains, and the team ask whether the long-anticipated rotation away from US mega caps is finally accelerating?

This Week’s Highlights:
📊 Portfolio Gains Momentum
A strong week driven by commodities and emerging markets exposure.
⛏️ Mining Leads the Charge
BlackRock World Mining Trust hits fresh highs as metals rally.
🌍 Emerging Markets Break Higher
Korea climbs the global rankings and EM exposure continues to pay off.
🇺🇸 US vs The Rest of the World
Is money finally rotating away from US mega caps into global markets?
🏦 Private Equity Pressure
Are private market valuations finally being tested?
🧠 Investor Psychology
When a position is down 50%, what should you actually do?

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 28:
Weekly performance: +1.4%
Total return since inception: +18.7%
Top Performers
🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: +6.7%
🥈 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +4.0%
🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +3.4%
Underperformers
📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –1.4%
📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: –0.6%
📉 Xtrackers DAX ETF: –0.5%

Portfolio Positioning:
The portfolio remains positioned toward:
• Commodities (mining, copper)
• Emerging markets
• European equities
• US small & mid-caps (rather than mega-cap tech)
Cash and short-dated gilts remain in place as stability anchors (~20% combined). The team continue to emphasise geographic diversification away from heavy US concentration, particularly given global indices remain ~60–70% US weighted.

Big Themes This Week:
• Commodity strength returning
• Early signs of global equity rotation
• Private equity valuations under scrutiny
• Dividend yield traps explained
• The importance of taking action on losing positions
The central question: If institutions are underweight Europe and emerging markets, does the rotation still have further to run?

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why high dividend yields can be a red flag
✔️ The difference between the “rabbit”, “assassin” and “hunter” investor
✔️ Why US economic strength doesn’t automatically mean US stock market outperformance
✔️ How money flows drive market leadership
✔️ Why compounding early (JISAs) matters more than market timing

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham unpack a quietly powerful week in markets.
While headlines remain focused on AI, tariffs and geopolitics, European markets are breaking higher, bonds are behaving, and liquidity is quietly driving asset prices.
The team explores why risk assets continue to rally despite macro uncertainty, and why the bond market remains the ultimate signal to watch.
Plus: a deep dive into portfolio volatility using AI, the silver short squeeze debate, and what could finally derail this bull run.

This Week’s Highlights:
📈 Europe Leads Again
FTSE 100 hits fresh highs, the DAX continues to climb, and the Euro Stoxx 600 builds momentum.

🏦 Bonds Behaving
US 10-year yields hit 12-month lows. No panic. No inflation scare. Why does it matter?

🤖 AI = Disinflation?
Is productivity from AI quietly suppressing inflation expectations?

🪙 Silver Squeeze Talk
Is there really a conspiracy in silver, or just classic retail momentum?

🌍 Emerging Markets Build
Portfolio exposure increases as global growth expectations strengthen.

📊 AI Analyses the Portfolio
CJ uses AI to calculate portfolio volatility in minutes, and the results may surprise you.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 27:
Weekly performance: +0.5%
Total return since inception: +17.3%

Top Performers
🥇 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +2.4%
🥈 Invesco Stoxx Europe 600 ETF: +2.0%
🥉 Xtrackers DAX ETF: +1.9%

Underperformers
📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –0.5%
📉 Nikkei 225 ETF: 0.0%
📉 Cash: +0.1%

Portfolio Positioning:
The portfolio remains tilted toward:
• European equities
• Emerging markets
• US small and mid-caps
• Commodities exposure
Cash and bonds remain limited (~20% combined), keeping overall volatility aligned with the S&P 500, but with broader geographic diversification.

Big Themes This Week:
• Liquidity is still abundant
• AI may be structurally disinflationary
• Bond markets are calm, for now
• Cyclical exposure remains the key risk
• Dollar weakness would benefit positioning
The central question:
As long as bonds behave, does this rally have further to run?

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why bond yields are the most important signal in markets
✔️ How AI could structurally lower inflation
✔️ Why European markets are outperforming the US
✔️ How to measure portfolio volatility properly
✔️ Why silver squeezes rarely end well

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham return after an intriguing week in markets to debate a major shift in positioning.
With Japan surging, emerging markets breaking higher, software stocks wobbling and AI disruption accelerating, the team asks a big question: Are we rotating from tech into old-world value, and is private equity the next risk?
Expect macro insight, portfolio reshuffling, and a full breakdown of where capital is moving next.

This Week’s Highlights
🇯🇵 Japan Breakout
A landslide election victory fuels fiscal stimulus hopes. The Nikkei jumps nearly 9% on the week, lifting the portfolio sharply.
💻 Software Shock
A small AI tax tool sparks a broader sell-off across software, wealth management and private equity-linked names. Is this the start of margin compression?
🏦 The 100-Year Bond Warning
Alphabet issues a 100-year bond, massively oversubscribed. CJ calls it a red flag for complacency in credit markets.
🪙 Crypto Contrarian Signal?
Bitcoin weakens again, but ultra-bearish headlines may suggest positioning is stretched.
🌍 Europe & Emerging Markets Strength
Euro Stoxx indices hit highs as investors rotate away from expensive US tech into industrial and value-heavy regions.
🇬🇧 UK Politics & Gilts
Political uncertainty continues, reinforcing caution on long-dated UK bonds.

Portfolio Snapshot: Week 26
Weekly performance: +1.62%
Total return since inception: +16.86%

Top Performers
🥇 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +8.5%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +5.2%
🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +3.2%

Underperformers
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +0.3%
📉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: +0.3%
📉 Cash: +0.1%
Despite broad gains across equities, Japan and mining stocks drove the bulk of weekly performance, while defensive assets lagged as risk appetite improved.

Big Questions the Team Debate
• Is AI about to compress software margins?
• Are private equity valuations vulnerable?
• Is Japan Thatcher… or Liz Truss?
• Are we early in a rotation toward Europe and EM?
• Is extreme negativity on crypto a contrarian buy signal?

What You’ll Learn
✔ Why markets “travel” before they arrive
✔ How fiscal stimulus drives equity multiples
✔ Why 100-year bonds can signal complacency
✔ The difference between AI hype and AI implementation
✔ How to rotate portfolios without increasing overall risk

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald and Mark “Spice” Holden are joined by JP Smith for a wide-ranging and timely discussion on one of the most volatile weeks markets have seen in months.
With gold and silver suffering brutal flash crashes, crypto tumbling, US tech rotating hard, and a surprise nomination for the next Fed Chair rattling liquidity expectations, the team unpack what’s really going on beneath the surface, and how investors can spot early warning signs before markets move fast.
From AI capex concerns and stretched US valuations to volatility indicators, liquidity conditions and portfolio protection, this episode is a masterclass in navigating late-cycle markets.

This Week’s Market Highlights
📉 Gold & Silver Flash Crash
Precious metals suffer violent reversals as margin hikes, positioning pressure and liquidity fears collide.
💻 Tech Rotation Accelerates
US software and AI leaders sell off sharply as markets reassess capex spending and future returns.
🔄 Money Rotates, Not Flees
Capital flows out of mega-cap tech into small- and mid-cap US equities, Europe and Japan.
🪙 Crypto Volatility Returns
Bitcoin slides sharply, dragging crypto-linked equities with it, highlighting broken correlations with gold.
🏦 Fed Chair Shock
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, spooking markets with fears of tighter liquidity and less QE.
📊 Volatility Back on the Radar
The VIX becomes a key signal once again, with the team explaining how professionals actually use it.

Portfolio Snapshot
Weekly performance: –1.1%
Total return since inception: +15.24%

Top Performers
🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF: +5.0%
🥈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +2.5%
🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +1.0%

Underperformers
📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –21.3%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust: –9.4%
📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: –3.1%

Key Portfolio Decision
🔄 Reducing US Mega-Cap Exposure
Sold half of the Nasdaq position (–2.5%)
Reallocated into US small caps via the Russell 2000
Why?
Small- and mid-cap companies are better positioned to benefit if economic activity broadens and rate cuts resume later this year.
Updated US exposure now favours diversification over concentration.

What Investors Learn in This Episode
✔️ Why gold and silver can fall fast, even in bull markets
✔️ How margin changes and liquidity shocks trigger violent moves
✔️ Why AI capex is now being treated as a risk, not a reward
✔️ How professionals use the VIX to manage risk
✔️ The difference between a healthy rotation and a market breakdown
✔️ When cash and short-dated bonds become powerful tools
✔️ Why small caps may be the next phase of the US cycle

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly market insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

February Incentive
Get up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.
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New share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.
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