Rethink Energy 231: US nuclear strategy, China's future manufacturing dominance, BESS exports up over 400%
The US will default to a nuclear-centric energy strategy as nuclear enjoys bipartisan support from policymakers - unlike either renewables or fossil fuel plants. More broadly worldwide, the growing need to pair intermittent renewables with energy storage is eroding their perceived cost advantage over nuclear energy - although this depends on local wind and solar conditions.China now accounts for 30% of global manufacturing, and still growing - but its future competitive advantage, under the hood, will be very different in future compared to today and yesterday.144 GWh of energy storage supply deals were signed between Chinese OEMs and overseas customers in the first five months of 2025 alone - up over 400% year-on-year, and with only 3.4 GWh of it destined for the US.
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Rethink Energy 230: Flying cars to redouble all-solid-state R&D; VPP progress to accelerate EV adoption via V2G
Flying cars are being brought to market by several major EV manufacturers in 2025 and 2026 - and their demand for weight efficiency will boost adoption of autonomous driving and all-solid-state batteries, even if those technologies are too expensive for standard EVs.Chinese OEMs have unveiled a new tranche of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers as the SNEC exhbition - bringing cost-effective green hydrogen one step closer.Virtual Power plant adoption is heading towards a scale of perhaps 10% of grid generating capacity by 2030 and 20% by 2040 - with a mutually reinforcing relationship between VPP adoption, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) payments, and EV market penetration likely to manifest in future.
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Rethink Energy 229: Rio Tinto bets on future lithium price recovery; trends in TOPCon solar technology
Rio Tinto has announced a further $900 million investment into lithium mining in Chile - we discuss the inexorable logic that today's 2x overcapacity will give way, due to constantly growing demand, to a second lithium shortage within the next 10 years.JinkoSolar's whitepaper on their latest TOPCon solar module, which boasts 24.8% efficiency, demonstrates that technological progress in silicon PV has yet to slow - but there are only five years left before the theoretical Shockley-Queisser limit on photovoltaic performance per square meter is effectively reached. After that, perovskites will be the primary remaining avenue for further research.
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Rethink Energy 228: the latest renewable energy capex costs
With Republicans sabotaging renewables and Democrats bound to push out fossil fuels, nuclear stands to benefit as the 'least interfered with' option. President Trump has signed a new EO upping the Biden 2050 target of 200 GW, to 400 GW of nuclear power - to include 10 constructions beginning by 2030, and this is backed by data center hyperscalers, which combine massive future electricity demand growth and the necessary private funds to support nuclear projects. California curtailed almost 1 TWh of wind and solar in the month of April, even as batteries ramp up to discharge 10 GW each evening.The China Hydropower Research Institute has released a sweeping report into renewable energy capex - in which the most surprising finding is that compressed-air energy storage is cheaper upfront than lithium energy storage batteries, if there's a natural salt cavern to use - and scarcely more expensive even with artificial excavation.
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Rethink Energy Talks Ep. 17: discussing Nuclear Power with consultant Ed Ho
In this episode Toronto-based energy consultant and analyst Ed Ho joins us to discuss the present situation of the nuclear power industry - and the prospects for future deployments.We ask - what is the "true" cost of nuclear power - is it more like the recent Western new-build overruns on cost and construction time which resulted in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) north of $150 per MWh due to repeated overruns, or is the surface-level $40 per MWh for nuclear power on South Korea's power market more realistic?The discussion also covers prospects for several major future markets such as Poland and the US - and the potential for South Korea's KEPCO to develop projects in other countries as it has so successfully with the Barakah power plant in the UAE.
The Rethink Energy Podcast complements Rethink Energy's weekly strategy bulletin, as we dive deeper into the dynamic factors of the energy market. From offshore wind to carbon credits, we discuss the week's key issues, while providing insight into our own research and forecasts to explore where momentum is building through the energy transition.
The team: Connor Watts, Bogdan Avramuta, and Andries Wantenaar.
If you want to stay ahead of the game, and avoid falling victim to the under-optimism of the market giants, find out more at rethinkresearch.biz/product/rethink-energy/
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