Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin. newsletter.checkonchain.c...
G’day Folks,The world is working its way through a very interesting rotation of capital, with the US bond market being a primary recipient. In many ways, this runs counter to Bitcoin intuition, since who in their right mind would want to lend a government money?To talk through these dynamics, we welcome my friend Nik Bhatia of the Bitcoin Layer to the podcast.Nik has a wealth of experience analysing, trading and investing in the bond market, and uses the price signals as a key input into how he measures liquidity. Nik is also a student of markets, and has recently published his second book, titled Bitcoin Age, exploring how he sees Bitcoin fitting into the world on the road ahead.In this conversation, we cover concepts related to the bond market, the US dollar, global liquidity, Bitcoin, and the relationship between the US Treasury and Federal Reserve.I learned a lot from this conversation, and we will no doubt have Nik back on before long.Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:03:55
Proof-of-Work Security with Bob Burnett (RC#11)
G’day Folks,A few weeks back, I prepared a piece titled Securing the Bag, where I laid out my thoughts on Bitcoins proof-of-work security model, and how I expect it to play out long term. Everything from the declining security budget, to the risk of a nation state 51% attack.Off the back of this, I had the great pleasure of talking through many these dynamics with Bob Burnett of Barefoot Mining. Bob has thought extremely deeply about the mining industry, and is someone who has a great respect for Bitcoin as a network, and its importance in the future.Mining is one of the least understood sectors of the Bitcoin network, and is full of so much nuance, that it can take quite a lot of work to properly wrap your head around it. My hope is that this conversation will both help answer some of those questions, offer up ideas to ponder, and leave you with even more questions that pique your curiosity.I thoroughly enjoyed this conversation, Bob was a great guest, and I have no doubt we will do this again. Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:19:19
Bitcoin's Divergence from Crypto with Travis Kling (RC#10)
G’day Folks,Today I had the great pleasure of talking with Travis Kling from Ikigai Asset Management, and having a conversation that was long overdue. I have followed Travis for many years now, and he has no shortage of experience analysing, and observing how this weird market trades.Way back in 2019, Ikigai prepared a repository of onchain analysis papers called Kana & Katana. Yours truly downloaded every single one of these as a PDF, printed them off at work, and read each of them over and over, absorbing what was at the time the cutting edge of onchain analysis.My friends didn’t understand, but it felt very important…In this conversation, we go down loads of rabbit holes, from the new American administration, to Bitcoins role as a macro asset, and the divergence between BTC and broader crypto. Travis has a keen eye for how the technological, social, and market dynamics of Bitcoin and crypto intersect, and the time of this podcast is no coincidence.I think you’re really going to enjoy this one, and we managed to hit several of Travis’ famous one liners!Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:22:29
The Big Print with Lawrence Lepard (RC#9)
G’day Folks,I was delighted to catch up with Larry Lepard once again to talk about his new book The Big Print. Having monitored and invested in markets for many decades, Larry has an incredible depth of knowledge and experience, and a real knack for telling the story from his unique perspective. Larry has put considerable thought into the cause and effect dynamics of fiat money, central banks, and the impact that debasement has on the purchasing power of the average person.The Big Print is a story of US financial history, laying out just how big the problem is, and why sound money assets like gold and Bitcoin can help investors navigate what is likely to be a tumultuous process.This was a cracker of a conversation, and I am looking forward to reading my copy of The Big Print, which I have on order as we speak. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:10:16
MicroStrategy Bewilderment with Jeff Walton (RC#8)
Today, we're releasing the latest edition of the Rough Consensus podcast with Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) covering our thinking about MicroStrategy.Jeff was very early to the MSTR trade, and has done an extraordinary amount of work thinking through the problem. I am a huge fan of analysts who do the Proof of Work, and as we know in Bitcoin, the obvious answer is often not the correct one.We analyse the strategy that Saylor is putting into play, as well as discuss the many nuances of the various metrics and models for thinking about the MSTR trade. We cover how we think about this asset in both bull and bear markets, and why it creates such a remarkable level of confusion amongst market commentators.I’m still very early in my MSTR journey, but I find it a truly fascinating motivator for helping me process how financial markets really work under the hood. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin. newsletter.checkonchain.com
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