October 28th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (28 Oct 2025)Episode Title: Yen bid, oil soft, minerals pact signed — the policy currents moving marketsOverview: Today’s briefing covers a stronger yen after the US–Japan summit, softer crude as OPEC+ eyes a small supply increase, gold slipping below USD 3.9k/oz, and base metals easing into a dense event calendar. On policy, Washington and Tokyo unveiled a six-month roadmap to back end-product projects in critical minerals and rare earths; China and ASEAN upgraded their FTA; the UK is floating a “steel club” with the US and EU; and US–Canada trade tensions linger. Geopolitically, Gaza remains volatile, Russia–Ukraine sanctions continue to reshape energy flows, DPRK–Russia ties deepen, and Tokyo–Seoul aim for an Oct 30 summit.Key segments:FX: USD steady, JPY stronger post-summit; yuan fixed stronger; GBP softer on UK fiscal-space chatter.Commodities: OPEC+ leaning to ~137k bpd hike; IEA flags 300 bcm LNG wave; gold below USD 3.9k/oz; copper eases.Trade & tariffs: US–Japan critical-minerals framework with six-month project actions; China–ASEAN FTA 3.0; UK “steel club”; US–Canada tensions; Japan nears opening to Brazilian beef.Geopolitics: Gaza ceasefire strains; Russia–Ukraine sanctions filter through oil logistics; DPRK–Russia dialogue; Tokyo–Seoul summit planning; Beijing’s five-year plan priorities.What to watch next:Any near-term project lists under the US–Japan minerals framework.Concrete outcomes and language from Trump–Xi later this week.OPEC+ confirmation of a third consecutive modest hike and its size/timing.Sanction enforcement effects on Russian flows into Europe and Asia.Signals from Tokyo–Seoul on economic and security coordination.
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October 28th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2025Episode summary: Yen firms as USD/JPY slips below 152 post US–Japan summit. Oil treads water with OPEC+ leaning toward another small supply increase; gold capped below USD 4k/oz; copper eases after a strong run. The US and Japan sign a critical-minerals and rare-earths framework with six-month project support timelines. China–ASEAN sign FTA 3.0 upgrade. UK floats a “steel club” with US/EU to address Chinese oversupply. Sanctions drive Russia energy headlines; Lukoil weighs asset sales and Berlin faces a deadline to resolve Rosneft’s German assets. DPRK–Russia diplomacy deepens; Tokyo–Seoul set an October 30 leader meeting.Segments & suggested timestamps:Intro & market setup — FX overview with USD/JPY move, yuan fixing contextCommodities — OPEC+ path, IEA LNG build-out, precious/base metals toneTrade & tariffs — US–Japan minerals pact, China–ASEAN FTA 3.0, UK “steel club,” Canada–US tensions, Japan market access for Brazilian beefGeopolitics — Gaza updates, Russia–Ukraine sanctions mechanics, DPRK–Russia talks, Tokyo–Seoul summit planningWhat to watch — Trump–Xi outcomes, OPEC+ formal decision, sanction enforcement impacts on flowsKey takeaways for listeners:Policy coordination headlines drove a yen bid; broader G10 FX remains range-bound into event risk.Energy is balanced between sanction noise and incremental OPEC+ supply; LNG capacity growth looms large for medium-term gas pricing.The US–Japan minerals pact is designed to de-risk rare-earths supply chains with tangible project support in six months.Sanction implementation details and asset-ownership resolutions in Europe could redirect Russian energy flows.Asian diplomacy is active on multiple tracks (US–Japan, China–ASEAN, Japan–Korea), with supply-chain and security linkages front and center.
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October 27th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)Date: Monday, 27 October 2025Episode Summary: A risk-on tone starts the week as Washington and Beijing reach a framework for Trump–Xi talks, averting new tariffs and delaying China’s rare-earth licensing plan. The dollar is steady, yen remains weak, and commodity-linked currencies are firmer. Oil eases after early strength, gold is softer, and copper extends gains above USD 11k/t. The US expands trade links across Southeast Asia, raises tariffs on Canada, and presses forward with global energy ambitions. Geopolitically, tensions remain high in Gaza and Ukraine while Asia sees progress at the ASEAN Summit and US–Japan meetings.Key Topics Covered:FX: Dollar rangebound; yen hovers near 153; stronger yuan fix; GBP steady; AUD/NZD up on China optimism.Commodities: Oil slips on oversupply fears; Iraq’s output unaffected by pipeline fire; US plans to double LNG exports; gold weaker, copper rallies.Trade & Tariffs: US–China deal framework; rare-earth export delay; new US–Canada tariffs; US–ASEAN trade deals; UK–GCC talks in Riyadh.Geopolitics: Gaza strikes, US calls for multinational force; Russia nuclear drills and Ukraine sanctions push; ASEAN peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia; US–Japan cooperation ahead of Trump visit.Suggested Segment Outline:IntroductionFX OverviewCommodities RoundupTrade & Tariff DevelopmentsGeopolitical BriefingClosing SummaryKey Takeaways:Trade optimism underpins risk appetite ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.Commodity sentiment mixed — crude consolidates while metals firm.US deepens Southeast Asian trade footprint; Canada relations strain.Geopolitical risks persist from Gaza to Ukraine but diplomacy continues in Asia.
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October 27th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)Date: Monday, 27 October 2025Episode summary: Dollar steady; yen heavy near 153; PBoC sets its strongest fix in over a year. Oil holds a modest bid on sanction risk and stable Iraqi output; gold softer, copper breaks above USD 11k/t on improved US–China tone and firmer Chinese industrial profits. Trade headlines improve: US–China agree a talks framework, avert a tariff hike, and delay China’s rare-earth licensing; the US unveils a slate of Southeast Asia deals, including rare-earth access via Malaysia. North American tensions rise as Washington hikes tariffs on Canada and Ottawa cuts tariff-free auto quotas. Geopolitics stays hot: targeted strikes in Gaza with a potential multinational force under discussion, nuclear-drill signaling from Moscow as Kyiv pushes for broader energy sanctions, and DPRK diplomacy with Russia during the ASEAN week.Key topics covered: FX setup and policy divergence; oil/gas/metal moves; US–China trade framework and rare-earths delay; US–Vietnam framework and US deals with Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia; immediate US tariff increase on Canada and Canada’s quota cuts; Middle East and Ukraine war updates; DPRK–Russia engagement; ASEAN-week diplomacy; US–Japan tech cooperation preview.Suggested segment outline (add timestamps): Intro → FX rundown → Energy & metals → Trade and tech policy (US–China framework; SE Asia deals; Canada tariffs) → Geopolitics (Gaza, Ukraine, DPRK/Russia, ASEAN) → Wrap/what to watch into the Trump–Xi meeting.Key takeaways:Managed stability from Beijing’s stronger CNY fix; yen softness keeps USD/JPY elevated.Oil supported by sanction overhang; gold softer, copper strong on trade optimism.Rare-earth licensing delay and regional trade pacts ease some supply-chain risk even as US–Canada frictions rise.Geopolitical risk remains elevated across Gaza, Ukraine, and the Korean Peninsula, keeping headline sensitivity high.
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October 24th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)Date: Friday, 24 October 2025Episode summaryDollar firm into CPI; EUR and GBP subdued; USD/JPY tested 153. Oil gives back part of Thursday’s sanctions-driven spike as buyers in Asia tighten compliance on Russian flows; gold softer, copper firm near USD 11k/t. Washington prepares a Section 301 probe into China’s 2020 trade-deal compliance; US–Japan align on AI and next-gen telecom; USTR travel spans Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea. Canada trims tariff-free quotas for certain US autos as Trump declares talks “terminated.” Geopolitics features EU debates on financing for Ukraine via frozen assets, guarded signals on a possible Trump–Putin meeting, Middle East sensitivities, and Venezuela-related counternarcotics rhetoric. Beijing stresses market opening and tech self-reliance; PBoC fix supports CNY stability.Key topics coveredFX: USD firm; EUR/GBP subdued; USD/JPY near 153; PBoC fix 7.0928; CAD reacts to US–Canada trade headlines.Commodities: Oil retraces as sanctions compliance tightens; gold softer; copper near USD 11k/t.Trade/tech policy: US Section 301 probe prep; US–Japan cooperation on AI/telecom; USTR Asia travel; Canada reduces tariff-free auto quotas; China signals more opening and no zero-sum FDI stance.Geopolitics: EU weighs Ukraine financing options tied to frozen Russian assets; potential—but unconfirmed—leader-level US–Russia meeting; US signals on Israel/West Bank; Venezuela counternarcotics focus.Suggested segment outline (add timestamps)Intro → FX rundown → Energy & metals → Trade & tech policy → Geopolitics → Wrap/what to watchKey takeawaysA firm dollar within ranges, yen soft near 153, oil easing but supply routes in flux, and policy risk elevated ahead of next week’s Trump–Xi meeting and a fresh US probe into China’s 2020 commitments.
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