Street Signals

As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so far kept this a slow-burn test of positioning and risk tolerance, rather than a volatility event with a specific breaking point. This week, we speak with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas for State Street Markets as to whether this equilibrium can hold. He notes the most relevant variables of investor positioning and activity and their current messages, if markets are correctly pricing the policy response and why the US dollar has reasserted its safe-haven status.
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A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are as vast as they are unknowable, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week, we speak to Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, about the evolving conflict in Iran and the market implications for a prolonged disruption in one of the world’s key energy chokepoints.
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While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s events — particularly the sharp rotation in equities in 2026 and the reassessment of crowded AI‑linked trades and their fundamental drivers. Cayla Seder, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Markets, speaks to the shifting market perceptions around AI, the scale of hyperscaler investment, the growing role of debt financing in the tech sector and how technology's potential to transform the economic outlook is likely to play out.
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Market volatility continues to climb in February, with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs last week upending US trade policy in an afternoon. Questions now circle as to whether last years trade-induced USD weakness that was expected to continue into 2026 is now at risk of reversal. Meanwhile, the yen's tumble under Takaichi-nomics has resumed, equities and gold remain choppy and many long-dormant correlation relationships are starting to reassert themselves. Managing risk remains a constant challenge, as Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas at State Street Markets, highlights in this week's episode.
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In celebration of Lunar New Year, we take a deep dive into China’s political economy. Despite trade tensions, a weak consumer and a halting post‑COVID recovery, a powerful export boom kept China on track last year—and could do so again in 2026. Fresh off a two-week fact-finding trip across the country, Ning Sun, senior EM strategist at State Street Markets, joins us to unpack what she saw on the ground and the challenges facing the world’s biggest exporter.
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