Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

The hosts reflect on surviving the “ninth worst” Bitcoin crash and the sharp one-day move from ~$70k to ~$60k, followed by a quick rebound into the high-$60ks
John shares client sentiment: widespread “WTF” confusion, plus a growing chorus expecting another leg down—often a late-cycle/bottom-ish behavioral tell
Discussion of fear/greed collapsing to extreme levels and how prior bear-market patterns (e.g., late 2022) can rhyme without being predictive
Inflation talk via multiple lenses: CPI vs PCE vs alternative real-time measures like Truflation, plus skepticism on CPI components (e.g., health insurance methodology)
Macro implication: inflation appears to be cooling enough to give the Fed room for rate cuts, but Bitcoin can still rally even without a “big print”
Lynn Alden clip reaction: Bitcoin bottoms tend to be slow, sideways, and buyer-rotation-driven rather than V-shaped without major stimulus
AI as a potential catalyst and volatility driver across equities, with examples of major S&P names experiencing severe drawdowns amid uncertainty
TradFi signals: CFA Institute review of a Bitcoin book framed as an “intellectual curiosity” bridge for mainstream finance audiences
Lightning Labs announcement: enabling AI agents to pay via Lightning, positioning Bitcoin rails as a native fit for autonomous software commerce
Quick hits: quantum-resistance progress (BIP-360), Elon’s “X Money” timeline, and “Bitcoin is dead” obituaries re-emerging as contrarian indicators
 

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide
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► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault
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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App
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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!
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► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin
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Bitcoin whipsawed violently, including what the hosts describe as the largest one-day drop in Bitcoin’s history in nominal dollar terms, followed by a sharp rebound
Core message: “check your conviction,” widen your time horizon, and avoid leverage (options + liquidations are highlighted as the two classic ways people get forced out)
Checkmate’s “bull case” framed around Bitcoin as a 10x technological improvement and the unusually high-quality, diverse cohort of people attracted to Bitcoin
James Lavish’s “knowledge arbitrage” thesis: most allocators still don’t understand Bitcoin, and that gap will close as institutions normalize it as a core asset
Saylor clip reinforces that drawdowns are a recurring feature of an emergent asset and often flush out leverage/tourists
The hosts call out media “grave-dancers,” focusing on Paul Krugman’s critique and the inconsistency of dismissing Bitcoin for lacking earnings while holding up gold as the refuge asset
A major working hypothesis for the crash: forced selling from leveraged entities or hedge-fund unwind dynamics (Jeff Park referenced), rather than a clean “fundamentals changed” story
Crypto-industry capitulation is framed as short-term collateral damage but long-term bullish for Bitcoin (Pierre Rochard: crypto narratives slowed Bitcoin adoption)
Lightning milestones: a $1M payment reportedly routed via Lightning (Voltage), plus Steak ’n Shake’s claim of faster checkout and ~50% fee savings vs cards, with measurable transaction share impact
Quick-hit morale boosters: Gene Simmons posts HODL/DYOR support; reminder that Bitcoin’s adoption and infra keep compounding despite price chaos
 

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin
✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/
✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

Gold and silver reverse hard after a massive 2025 run, with gold down ~9–10% and silver down as much as ~30% intraday
Framing: gold can shed “multiple Bitcoins” of market cap in hours, underscoring scale and volatility even for “safe” assets
Bill Miller point: BTC–gold long-run correlation is near zero, so divergence doesn’t falsify the “digital gold” thesis
Perspective check: gold stagnated for long stretches while Bitcoin outperformed, so recency bias cuts both ways
Idea explored: gold strength can precede major Bitcoin moves, not as a law, but as a recurring historical rhythm
Fed section: Kevin Warsh is nominated/expected as the next Fed chair; he’s publicly non-hostile to Bitcoin and calls much of “crypto” effectively securities
Powell clips criticized: “central banking has served the people well” and “credibility is right where it needs to be,” despite gold signaling skepticism about fiat management
Healthy hopium: David Marcus argues Bitcoin’s monetary properties and “gold parity” math implying ~$1.1M–$1.5M per BTC over time, with timing uncertain
Policy/market structure: debate over stablecoins paying yield and competitive pressure on banks, plus a broader “digital assets industry” convergence thesis
Quick hits: Binance converting a $1B reserve fund to BTC, BlackRock filing a Bitcoin premium-income (covered call) ETF concept, and a custody-related theft story

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin
✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/
✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

Debate continues on whether the Fourth Turning has ended, with Swan arguing more systemic stress lies ahead
Gold’s breakout is framed as validation of the debasement thesis, not a refutation of Bitcoin
Bitcoin and gold are positioned as aligned assets against fiat debasement, with different strengths
Cathie Wood suggests this cycle’s Bitcoin drawdown may be the shallowest in history
Trump’s renewed stock-market cheerleading signals shifting political incentives ahead of midterms
Davos discussions show Bitcoin is now taken seriously, though still begrudgingly, by central bankers
Politicization of central banks is bullish for assets but bearish for fiat currencies
Japan’s bond and currency volatility highlight long-term consequences of financial repression
Steak ’n Shake adopting Bitcoin for treasury and employee pay reflects grassroots adoption
TradFi continues integrating Bitcoin via annuities, tokenized securities, and ETFs

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin
✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/
✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

Brandon recounts writing “Bitcoin and the Rhythms of History” in 2020 as a way to make sense of crisis-era dynamics and institutional decay
Iran’s currency collapse is used as a real-time case study of how money failure fractures society, accelerates protests, and destroys savings
The discussion frames the current moment as a “global” Fourth Turning, with synchronized instability, populism, and regime stress across regions
Venezuela’s turmoil is interpreted through power vacuums, geopolitics, and resource incentives, alongside a skeptical take on nation-building efficacy
California’s proposed “Billionaire Tax Act” is treated as a Fourth Turning signal: broken social contract, rising resentment, and a property-rights flashpoint
The “supply vs demand of order” model is explained as a way to understand volatility when institutions cannot meet public demand for stability
Generational archetypes are reviewed (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist) as broad-strokes heuristics for how cohorts behave in crisis and rebuilding phases
Bitcoin is positioned as “Fourth Turning money” and a new institution that replaces discretionary trust with protocol-enforced rules (“rules without rulers”)
Energy and industrial capacity are discussed as strategic constraints, with AI/data centers shifting the public energy debate away from Bitcoin mining

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!
✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live


► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:
✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan
✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin
✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin
✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin
✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/
✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin