The Competent Investor

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation.

Schiff contends the Fed is far behind the curve, with real rates falling as inflation accelerates, and that any further hikes will only worsen the fiscal situation. He highlights a brewing disaster in the housing and banking sectors, where trillions in unrealized losses on low-yielding mortgages threaten lender solvency, a situation he views as far worse than the 2008 crisis. This, combined with a reverse wealth effect as home prices eventually reset lower, will act as a severe headwind for the economy.

Schiff predicts Democrats will win the midterms and pass even larger deficits, accelerating the fiscal and inflationary problems.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:37 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Risks
00:03:25 - Inflation and Rate Hikes
00:08:04 - Market Reactions to Data
00:09:34 - Stock Market Breadth Concerns
00:11:50 - Mortgage Market Crisis
00:22:10 - Housing Wealth Effect Reversal
00:26:16 - Fannie Freddie Privatization
00:31:04 - Government Deficits and Taxes
00:42:24 - Gold Silver Investment Opportunities
00:49:20 - AI Impacts and Outlook
00:59:28 - Midterms & Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Peter Schiff — CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and Chairman of Schiff Gold
Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.
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AJ Signal, a former military strategist and current geopolitical risk advisor, outlines a framework for predicting conflict by monitoring five logistical signals that nations cannot easily fake: medical mobility, energy, finance, and munitions. He explains how, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the movement of blood banks to the front line served as an undeniable indicator of imminent war, because the cold-chain logistics for blood are too complex to be a bluff. Applying this lens today, he observes the U.S. military moving blood supplies into both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which, combined with other indicators, suggests preparations for a potential ground operation against Iran.

The discussion then turns to the “Toyota Hilux Index,” a pattern where a surge in shipments of these versatile, easily maintained trucks often precedes militia activity or civil war by six to twelve months. On energy, Signal details how attacks on critical but remote pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have effectively disabled a key bypass for crude oil exports, demonstrating the new vulnerability of critical national infrastructure to low-cost drone warfare. He notes that the real choke point in global energy is shifting from oil wells to refineries, which are being systematically targeted in both Russia and the Middle East, taking years and billions of dollars to repair.

Financially, he points to a massive movement of physical gold by central banks and institutions, including the Netherlands recalling its reserves, as a sign of eroding trust in the U.S. dollar and the current financial system. This is complemented by a surge in gold accumulation by China and private entities like Tether.

Finally, he warns that the convergence of these signals—blood logistics, vehicle shipments, refinery attacks, and gold repatriation—paints a picture of a world structurally preparing for prolonged conflict, with inevitable knock-on effects including higher fuel and food prices, potential fertilizer shortages, and increased global instability.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:10 - A.J. Signal Background
00:02:57 - Five Lanes of Signals
00:03:59 - Medical Blood Supplies Ukraine
00:08:31 - Current Blood Movements
00:21:57 - Energy Strait of Hormuz
00:25:08 - Pipeline Attacks Analysis
00:35:27 - Oil Prices and Refineries
00:58:22 - Finance Gold Settlements
01:06:57 - Munitions Supply Chains
01:10:34 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

AJ Signal — Strategic Geopolitical Risk Analysis & Insights
AJ Signal is a strategic geopolitical risk analysts, advisor and defence writer covering conflict, international relations and game theory. He has with 21 years across military, corporate security, intelligence, risk, crisis and disaster management, and has advises multinationals companies on risk and crisis strategy. His work has been published in The Times and the Jerusalem Post, featured on LCI/TF1, and cited by name in US Congressional Research Service. He publishes Signal, Not Noise!, a Substack Bestseller and Rising publication in World Politics. He is currently writing a book on Sanctions Capitalism.
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Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his be
Pento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment.

Pento predicts the next recession will cause deficits to balloon from two trillion to four-to-six trillion dollars annually, with the Fed unable to lower rates effectively without igniting double-digit inflation. He notes that total non-financial business debt, equity market capitalization relative to GDP, and housing affordability are all at or near record extremes, making the coming downturn potentially severe. Pento emphasizes that the Fed’s traditional tools—lowering rates and expanding its balance sheet—will not work this time because investors now understand the inflationary consequences. He concludes that the US is trapped by overfinancialization and fiscal irresponsibility, with no easy exit from the coming credit crisis.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:27 - Current Market Model Position
00:04:34 - AI Debt Bubble Pressures
00:05:51 - Treasury Rate Competition
00:10:11 - Foreign Creditors Shift to Gold
00:11:52 - Japan Carry Trade Issues
00:13:42 - Energy Costs and Japan
00:18:42 - Fed and Treasury Tools
00:21:00 - Real Estate and Wealth Effects
00:30:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
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Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management, argues that rising global interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis rather than a healthy economy, likening the situation to water overwhelming the Titanic. He views the current pullback in gold prices not as a weakness but as a strategic opportunity to build positions, emphasizing that central banks continue to accumulate physical gold as a hedge against the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies.

Carrasco contends that the real problem is not assets becoming more valuable but the purchasing power of money eroding, a trend he expects to accelerate as governments are forced to print money to manage unsustainable debt levels. He draws a sharp distinction between owning real assets and holding credit-based derivatives, warning that the latter could prove worthless in a systemic reset reminiscent of the 1930s.

Carrasco highlights the precious metals sector, particularly producers like Agnico Eagle, as one of the few areas trading at a discount to intrinsic value, offering a value proposition similar to Warren Buffett’s investments in the late 1990s. He sees a massive opportunity in silver, noting the historically extreme 70-to-1 gold-silver ratio compared to an 8-to-1 mining ratio, and points to growing industrial demand and Asian physical buying as catalysts for a rebalancing.

Geopolitically, Carrasco favors Latin America for its resource wealth and relative insulation from the credit and energy crises afflicting Europe and other regions. He stresses the importance of patience and a disciplined asset allocation, recommending a significant weighting in precious metals and direct share ownership. For investors, the core message is to recognize the long-term monetary shift underway and position accordingly in tangible assets and well-managed producers before the broader market fully acknowledges the scope of the developing storm.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:56 - Gold as Crisis or Opportunity
00:03:43 - Fiat Currency Devaluation
00:09:03 - Positioning in Real Assets
00:14:48 - Gold Pullback as Opportunity
00:22:50 - Interest Rates and Bonds
00:29:00 - Gold Silver Ratio Opportunity
00:35:48 - Asset Allocation Strategy
00:40:00 - Geopolitical Risks Latin America
00:45:00 - Portfolio Construction Details
00:55:10 - Volatility Versus Risk
01:00:00 - Timeline for Positioning
01:07:34 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows first to the wealthy and connected, systematically eroding the middle class and destroying the single-income household. This monetary debasement has fueled profound cultural and moral collapse, manifesting in diseases of desperation, addiction, and a loss of faith in American institutions.

Stansberry identifies the legal doctrine of "disparate impact" as the American version of Marxism, arguing it has corrupted everything from education and law enforcement to banking, leading to urban decay and institutional inefficiency. He contends that the banking system is now acutely vulnerable due to massive unrecognized losses on bond portfolios, a situation made untenable by the rise of AI, which will soon allow depositors to effortlessly seek market-based yields, triggering bank runs. To survive the coming reset, Stansberry outlines tiered investment strategies. For the very wealthy, he recommends buying deeply undervalued timberland.

For most investors, he advocates a "permanent portfolio" that replaces traditional bonds with property and casualty insurance stocks to hedge against inflation and volatility. For those still accumulating wealth, he details a "honeycomb" portfolio—a concentrated, seven-sector strategy centered on gold and enhanced with modest leverage to maximize returns while minimizing risk. He concludes that the window to prepare is closing, urging immediate action before the crisis becomes obvious to everyone.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:54 - Friday the 13th Origins
00:02:03 - Social Security Crisis Warning
00:06:53 - Cantillon Effect Explained
00:07:53 - Disparate Impact Doctrine
00:22:06 - Banking System Risks
00:28:19 - AI Transforming Banking
00:33:14 - Permanent Portfolio Strategy
00:41:26 - Honeycomb Portfolio Approach
00:44:10 - Being Pro-Active
00:57:20 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
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Website: https://www.porterstansberry.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/porterstansberry/
Substack: https://substack.com/@porterstansberry

Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.

In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.

The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.

Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.

Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.

Guest:

Porter Stansberry — Founder of MarketWise, OneBlade, and Porter & Co.
Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.

In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.

The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.

Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.

Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
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