Global Macro Update

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), discusses the intricacies of economic cycles, inflation forecasting, and the impact of policy responses on the economy, providing insights into current and future economic trends.

Stephen McBride, co-founder of the Rational Optimist Society and chief analyst at investment research firm RiskHedge, shares his framework focused on disruption, the importance of incentives, and how to identify the next big trends in technology and markets. Learn how to think about investing in disruptive businesses and the role of storytelling in technology adoption.

A hedge fund nearly blew up in a single week—not because of a bad bet, but because of leverage. And that's a problem the US government knows well. This week, Jared Dillian joins Ed D'Agostino to unpack what higher rates mean for America's debt, Japan, and the yen; why he's still one of the last bond bulls standing; and why he thinks the real tech bear market begins the day OpenAI files its S-1. Plus, Jared's new book, The Awesome Portfolio—a smarter, lower-stress way to save for retirement.

Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway and four-time winner of Zillow's Crystal Ball Award, joins Ed D'Agostino to answer a question that causes a lot of pushback: Is housing really harder now than it was for previous generations?
Yes—and also no. Barry makes the case that 45% of first-time buyers are sitting out over a down payment myth, walks the math on why a homeowner's net worth is 44 times a renter's, and explains why mortgage rates from here depend less on the Fed than on the price of oil.

Michael Howell of GL Indexes and Capital Wars joins Ed D'Agostino to explain how global liquidity is being drained by four converging forces—central bank tightening, surging oil, a rising dollar, and spiking bond volatility—just as a massive wall of COVID-era debt comes due for refinancing. He makes the case that the bull market is likely over, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is breaking down, and where investors should be looking.