Months before trade policy was on anyone's radar, Stephen Miran—now Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump—quietly published "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." In this episode, Ben and Cardiff dive into Miran’s roadmap and assess how Trump's policies in practice have diverged from Miran’s original vision.
Ben and Cardiff explore three key scenarios for the future trajectory:
Best Case: International dealmaking leads to a breakthrough, reducing tariffs globally, restoring trade relations, and strengthening US manufacturing sectors.
Base Case: A partial rollback of tariffs prevents catastrophic damage, yet still triggers an economic slowdown, accompanied by an interim inflation shock.
Worst Case: Continued tariff escalation triggers a severe recession, persistent stagflation, and prolonged economic and geopolitical turmoil.
The episode concludes with "surprise scenarios" that could rejuvenate growth despite an adverse economic environment. The hosts emphasize the high stakes and overwhelming uncertainty inherent in America's current economic trajectory.
For those who want to read the full, original roadmap:
Stephen Miran, A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, November 2024
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
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For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.
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Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.
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