Supply Chain Secrets

Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here
Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates
The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours
Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization
A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk
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Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI index
Why the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidence
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hours
Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vessel
El Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for now
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Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend
Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades
Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season
Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes
Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign
Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it
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Asia-North Europe
Asia-USWC/USEC

Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as September
The statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one.
Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West Africa
How CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around Africa
China PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watching
Global trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%

Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth, and what that means for peak season rates
A breaking report of a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman and what it signals about the state of the Hormuz conflict
The five and a half billion dollar added fuel cost burden on the container shipping industry over the past three months and how it compares to total industry EBIT
Gemini Alliance reliability bouncing back to 85% and a standout 98.5% on Asia-US West Coast
The UK ETS taking effect July 1st and the loophole it closes for carriers routing through UK ports
US consumer sentiment hitting its lowest reading since 1952, and whether that translates to freight demand