Geopolitical Cousins

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.
His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome
01:32 Beer And Banter
05:05 Trump Pause And Troops
06:43 Oil Shock Timeline
08:41 Houthis And Red Sea
11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil
13:43 Troop Math Reality
18:06 War Outlook Shifts
24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios
28:50 Iran Constraints Debate
32:20 Market Mispricing Pain
34:12 China And Allies Fallout
35:09 China Leverage on Iran
36:55 Low Conviction Warnings
37:53 Middle East War Normalized
40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement
42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold
48:36 Markets Start to Crack
53:24 Munitions and Time Limits
54:55 Europe Energy Exposure
56:52 Europe Must Get Real
59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up
01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism
01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling
01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog
01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock
01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium
01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon
01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism
01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century
01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power
01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here
01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams
01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball
01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts:
(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????
They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup
(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter
(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos
(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup
(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last
(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation
(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence
(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis
(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus
(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance
(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq
(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War
(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island
(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep
(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers
(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed
(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained
(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate
(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint
(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant
(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons
(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique
(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support
(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally
(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout
(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!
(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap
(02:15) - Trump War Quotes
(02:54) - Menu Metaphor
(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity
(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet
(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic
(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock
(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s
(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz
(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters
(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk
(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario
(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside
(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy
(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building
(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency
(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines
(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace
(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down
(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters
(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran
(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check
(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario
(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down
(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation
(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:47) - Oval Office Firings
(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War
(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat
(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation
(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals
(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone
(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran
(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk
(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock
(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview
(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory
(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold
(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation
(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards
(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military
(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario
(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts
(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure
(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour
(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.
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Timestamps:
(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson
(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters
(02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era
(06:36) - Asia Demand Explained
(08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike
(11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing
(16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom
(21:21) - Can US Build Tankers
(23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence
(27:08) - Red Sea Part Two
(30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes
(35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits
(37:27) - Where To Follow Ed
(38:41) - Closing Thanks
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Referenced in the Show:
Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro