The Emergency Management Network Podcast

The primary focus of today’s discussion centers on the severe weather conditions currently impacting the Pacific Northwest and surrounding regions. A high-impact Pacific storm is delivering substantial rainfall, strong winds, and snowfall across various areas, raising significant concerns about flooding and hazardous travel conditions. As we navigate through the complexities of this weather event, it is imperative to recognize the ongoing flood warnings, winter hazards, and the risks posed by blizzard conditions in states such as North Dakota and Montana. Furthermore, we shall highlight the critical situation in Washington, where record flooding has necessitated numerous rescues and evacuations. We will continue to monitor these developments closely as we provide updates on the evolving weather patterns and their implications.The recent episode of our podcast delves into the multifaceted impacts of a powerful Pacific storm currently affecting the western United States, particularly in Washington and Oregon. Our discussion begins with a detailed analysis of the meteorological phenomena at play, including the significant precipitation and high winds that have resulted in severe flooding across these regions. We examine the National Weather Service’s ongoing flood warnings and advisories, which highlight the urgency of the situation as urban flooding and hazardous conditions threaten the safety and well-being of residents. Furthermore, we explore the implications of saturated soils, which have led to widespread power outages and fatalities, emphasizing the dire need for preparedness in the face of such natural disasters.As the episode progresses, we provide a state-by-state breakdown of the weather conditions, detailing the specific challenges faced by each area. In California, for instance, we discuss the anticipated rainfall and the potential for minor urban flooding, while in Idaho, we highlight the blizzard conditions and the resultant dangers posed to travelers. Our analysis does not shy away from the human aspect of these events, as we recount reports of fatalities linked to the extreme weather, underscoring the importance of vigilance and community response during such crises. By the conclusion of our discourse, we aim to impart a comprehensive understanding of the current storm’s impact, fostering awareness and preparedness among our listeners.Takeaways:* A potent Pacific storm is currently causing significant flooding and hazardous weather across the Northwest region. * Wind advisories and winter weather warnings have been issued for multiple states due to severe conditions. * The ongoing weather events have resulted in major power outages and numerous emergency responses throughout the affected areas. * Travel remains extremely dangerous in regions experiencing blizzard conditions and high winds, particularly in North Dakota and Montana. * Flood warnings and advisories continue to be in effect as heavy rainfall persists in western Oregon and California. * Authorities are urging residents to remain vigilant and prepared for changing weather conditions and potential evacuations. Sources[NWS Eureka AFD | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=EKA&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1][NWS Bay Area Dense Fog Advisory | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lox&wwa=all][NWS Denver/Boulder AFD | https://www.weather.gov/bou/afd][NWS Denver/Boulder Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/bou/][NWS Pocatello Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pih/][AP | https://apnews.com/article/fe814b86139b6d30b8e19f5f1d44e47e][NWS Duluth Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/][NWS Duluth Marine | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/marine][NWS Glasgow | https://www.weather.gov/ggw/][NWS text for MT/ND blizzard | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bis&wwa=all][NWS Bismarck | https://www.weather.gov/bis/][BIS Decision Support Blizzard Brief (PDF) | https://www.weather.gov/media/bis/DssPacket.pdf][NWS Portland Briefing/Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/][NWS Coastal Flood Advisory | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=all][NWS/WPC ERO | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php][NWS Aberdeen | https://www.weather.gov/abr/][NWS Seattle Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/sew/][AP regional impacts | https://apnews.com/article/fe814b86139b6d30b8e19f5f1d44e47e][NWS Cheyenne High Wind Warning | https://www.weather.gov/cys/highwind][NWS Cheyenne Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/cys/] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The salient point of our discussion today centers on the impending severe weather conditions forecasted to affect multiple regions, particularly as a formidable Pacific storm approaches from the Northwest. This meteorological event is anticipated to bring damaging winds, mountain snow, and localized blizzard conditions across the Northern Rockies and Plains. Furthermore, we delve into the ongoing flood response in Western Washington, where the region grapples with the aftermath of excessive rainfall, compounded by river warnings and landslide risks as additional weather fronts approach. We also highlight the potential for hazardous travel conditions due to high winds and snow in various states, including North Dakota and Montana, as well as the growing concerns over winter storm watches and blizzard conditions in the northern plains. As we progress through our analysis, we will remain vigilant in tracking river stages, wind advisories, and the timing of forthcoming storms, ensuring that our audience is well-informed and prepared for the evolving weather scenarios.A thorough examination of the current meteorological landscape reveals the intricate dynamics of a formidable Pacific storm traversing the United States, particularly as it approaches the Northern Rockies and Plains. This storm is characterized by its capacity to generate damaging winds ranging from 50 to 70 mph, coupled with significant snowfall and the potential for localized blizzard conditions. The podcast meticulously unpacks the repercussions of this weather event, particularly for Western Washington, which is currently in a state of flood response following an extensive period of heavy precipitation. The discussion focuses on the heightened risks of river flooding and landslides, a situation exacerbated by the saturated soils resulting from recent rainfall. As the storm progresses, listeners are informed of the potential for additional fronts to exacerbate these conditions, emphasizing the ongoing vulnerability of the region.The narrative further extends to the specific weather advisories across various states, detailing the high wind advisories and renewed flood threats that are expected to emerge in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington. The podcast dissects the implications of these advisories, particularly for transportation and infrastructure, as well as the efforts of local and national weather services to keep the public informed. The dangers posed by high winds and blizzard conditions in the High Plains are highlighted, illustrating the widespread impact of the storm across state lines. The podcast adeptly conveys the seriousness of the situation, advocating for public awareness and action in response to the impending weather challenges.As the episode draws to a close, the discussion encapsulates the necessity for vigilance and preparedness in the face of such formidable weather phenomena. It calls upon listeners to remain abreast of the evolving circumstances, emphasizing the importance of heeding warnings and taking precautionary measures to ensure safety. Ultimately, the podcast serves as an invaluable resource for understanding the complexities of severe weather and underscores the imperative of community resilience in the face of natural adversities.Takeaways:* The Pacific storm is expected to bring significant damaging winds and snow across various regions today. * Western Washington continues to face serious flooding issues following an extended period of heavy rainfall. * High wind warnings and advisories are in effect across numerous states, indicating hazardous conditions. * Travel disruptions are anticipated due to heavy winds and potential blizzard conditions in the northern regions. * Forecasters predict a powerful atmospheric river to impact the area with heavy rain and rising rivers soon. * Weather advisories highlight the risk of downed trees and utility outages due to saturated soils. Sources[WPC | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov][NWS Seattle | https://www.weather.gov/sew/][USGS Latest Earthquakes (map) | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=16.8,-137.2&extent=55.0,-52.8&listOnlyShown=true][NOAA SWPC | https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion][NWS Seattle — AFD/hazards | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SEW&product=AFD&site=sew][NWS Seattle homepage | https://www.weather.gov/sew/][AP recap of state impacts | https://apnews.com/article/5a5d085e96e98d24c96a889b4d7d8e6c][WSDOT | https://wsdot.wa.gov/][NWS Portland hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/][NWS Pendleton alert (media relay) | https://ktvz.com/weather/alerts-weather/2025/12/17/high-wind-warning-issued-december-17-at-134am-pst-until-december-17-at-400pm-pst-by-nws-pendleton-or/][ODOT TripCheck closures | https://www.tripcheck.com/DynamicReports/Report/RoadConditions][NWS Bay Area AFD — key messages | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=MTR&product=AFD&site=mtr][WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook overview | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov][NWS Boise AFD/advisories | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=BOI&product=AFD&site=BOI][NWS Pocatello High Wind Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IDZ073&product1=High+Wind+Warning][Boise hazards | https://www.weather.gov/boi/][NWS Great Falls/TFX warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=byz&wwa=all][East Glacier hazard page | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.4438&lon=-113.2255][NWS Cheyenne warnings text | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=cys&wwa=all][NWS Denver/Boulder — point forecast showing High Wind Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.56&lon=-105.07][WPC national hazards note | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov][NWS Bismarck state forecast product | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=ND&product=SFP&site=AKQ][NWS Grand Forks DSS/Blizzard potential PDF | https://www.weather.gov/media/fgf/DssPacket.pdf][NWS Rapid City AFD | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=UNR&product=AFD&site=UNR][NWS Rapid City High Wind Warning text | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SDZ076&product1=High+Wind+Warning][NWS North Platte HWO | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=LBF&product=HWO&site=NWS][WFO North Platte hazards map | https://www.weather.gov/lbf/][NWS Salt Lake City homepage advisory | https://www.weather.gov/slc/][SLC point forecast showing Wind Advisory | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.7585&lon=-111.8881][NWS Duluth hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/][NWS Grand Forks web brief | https://www.weather.gov/fgf/] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

This podcast episode provides a comprehensive overview of the significant weather events currently affecting various regions, with a particular emphasis on the hazardous conditions prevalent in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for the Washington Cascades, predicting an accumulation of snow ranging from 10 to 36 inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to 65 miles per hour. Furthermore, the episode highlights the ongoing flooding situation in the Skagit River area near Mount Vernon, where major flooding is anticipated, prompting an extension of the flood warning into Friday. In addition, we examine the winter storm warnings affecting Juneau in Alaska, as well as the persistent lake effect snow impacting parts of New York. The episode concludes with a reminder for listeners to remain vigilant and heed local advisories regarding these severe weather conditions.A comprehensive analysis of the current meteorological conditions reveals a significant winter storm warning in effect across the Pacific Northwest, particularly impacting the Washington Cascades. The National Weather Service has forecasted an alarming accumulation of snow ranging from ten to thirty-six inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to sixty-five miles per hour. This substantial snowfall is anticipated to commence in the late afternoon and persist through Wednesday night, thereby creating hazardous travel conditions and raising concerns for residents in the affected areas. Moreover, the Skagit River is experiencing notable flooding, with warnings extended until Friday, underscoring the urgency for vigilance and preparedness among local communities.In the broader context of weather phenomena, Alaska’s Panhandle is similarly grappling with winter storm warnings, predicting an additional three to seven inches of snowfall, coupled with gusty winds of thirty-five to forty miles per hour. These conditions are expected to pose challenges for both residents and travelers alike. The Great Lakes region is not exempt from winter weather, as lake effect snow continues to affect parts of New York, particularly Jefferson and Lewis counties, where visibility may be severely compromised by intense snow bands producing rapid accumulations and slick road conditions. Such developments necessitate heightened awareness and adherence to safety protocols as the region navigates through these tumultuous winter conditions.Takeaways:* The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing severe winter storm conditions and hazards. * The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for multiple regions until Wednesday night. * Significant flooding is forecasted near Mount Vernon, affecting low-lying areas and access. * Alaska’s Panhandle continues to face winter storm warnings with additional snowfall expected today. * Cold temperatures persist in North Carolina, with wind chills posing risks to sensitive populations. * Lake effect snow continues to impact visibility and road conditions in parts of New York. Sources[NWS Juneau | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all][NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all][NWS Monterey Marine | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all] [NWS Honolulu | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=high+surf+advisory][NWS Wilmington NC | https://www.weather.gov/ilm/aviation][NWS Buffalo | https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFHWOBUF][NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=SEW&wwa=flood+warning][NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=winter+storm+warning] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Show NotesEmergency management often explains breakdowns through the lens of surprise, yet many of the hazards shaping our communities were visible long before impact. Todd and Dan unpack the difference between Black Swan events, which are genuinely rare and difficult to predict, and Gray Rhinos, which are highly probable, high-impact threats that are acknowledged but repeatedly deferred. The discussion explores how normalcy bias, political incentives, and institutional design can lead to the normalization of known risks and why mislabeling Gray Rhinos as Black Swans undermines resilience and professional credibility.Topics covered include:* How Black Swan events are defined and why they are often misunderstood* The concept of Gray Rhinos and how visible risks become politically inconvenient* Why emergency management defaults to the language of surprise* Normalcy bias and the danger of mistaking familiarity for safety* The gap between identifying risk and acting on it* Why mitigation and capacity building remain undervalued* How governance incentives shape preparedness outcomesKey TakeawayMost disasters are not shocking because they were unpredictable; they are devastating because they were postponed. Emergency management succeeds not by reacting well to surprise, but by refusing to ignore what is already charging straight at us. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The primary focus of today’s discussion centers upon the ongoing adverse weather conditions impacting various regions across the United States. As articulated, the National Weather Service has issued numerous warnings and advisories, particularly in the east and Great Lakes, where lake effect snow and severe cold conditions persist. Furthermore, we delve into the flood warnings affecting the Skagit River and the repercussions of a recent magnitude 4.0 earthquake in California, which, while not resulting in significant damage, has prompted caution regarding aftershocks. The episode also addresses hazardous travel conditions in the Los Angeles area due to dense fog and high winds in Montana, underscoring the diverse and severe weather phenomena currently in play. We conclude with a reminder of the importance of preparedness as these conditions evolve, urging listeners to prioritize their safety amidst these challenges.A comprehensive overview of the current meteorological conditions reveals a predominantly weather-driven scenario with significant implications for various regions across the United States. The National Weather Service has issued lake effect snow warnings for areas adjacent to Lakes Erie and Ontario, highlighting the persistent and severe cold that dominates the eastern parts of the country, while freeze alerts extend precariously down to the northern Gulf Coast. The discussion further elaborates on the ongoing flood crisis in Washington State, exacerbated by another deluge of rain from the Cascade Mountains, necessitating renewed vigilance as levels surge above flood stage once more. The seismic activity is also noteworthy, as a magnitude 4.0 earthquake rattled Sonoma County, California, prompting the acknowledgment of potential aftershocks, albeit with no immediate reports of significant damage. This episode serves as a crucial reminder of the unpredictable and often perilous nature of weather phenomena, urging listeners to remain informed and prepared for extreme conditions.Takeaways:* The National Weather Service warns of persistent cold weather and snow across the eastern states. * California experienced a magnitude 4.0 earthquake, with minor aftershocks but no significant damage reported. * Flood warnings are currently in effect for the Skagit River as rain increases water levels above flood stage. * Dense fog is impacting visibility in the Los Angeles area, making commutes hazardous this morning. * Freeze warnings are in place across parts of Florida, indicating significant cold weather conditions ahead. * A statewide state of preparedness has been declared in West Virginia due to expected snowfall and plunging temperatures. Sources[NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Cold headlines) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/][Freeze/Cold Advisory Example (active alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?firewxzone=FLZ009&product1=Freeze+Warning][USGS — M4.0, 6 km W of Glen Ellen, CA | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75279971][NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard — Office Page (Dense Fog Advisory) |https://www.weather.gov/lox/][NWS San Francisco/Monterey — Dense Fog Advisory (relay) | https://kioncentralcoast.com/weather-authority/alerts-weather-authority/2025/12/15/dense-fog-advisory-issued-december-15-at-151am-pst-until-december-15-at-1100am-pst-by-nws-san-francisco-ca/][NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Rip Currents/Marine) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/?n=ghwo_waves][NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (regional Freeze coverage) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/][NWS Atlanta/Peachtree City — Office Page (Cold WeatherAdvisory) | https://www.weather.gov/ffc/][NWS Great Falls — High Wind Warning (alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=59401][NWS Great Falls — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/tfx/][NWS Buffalo — Lake-Effect Snow Warning (Oswego Co. example)| https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ006][NWS Buffalo — HWO/Advisories (WNY) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ085][NWS Wilmington OH — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/iln/][MapClick — Cincinnati (Cold Weather Advisory example) | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.12711&lon=-84.51439][NWS Pittsburgh — HWO (NW PA with Lake-Effect impacts) | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ctp&wwa=hazardous+weather+outlook][NWS Cleveland — DSS Packet (Lake-Effect timing into Monday)| https://www.weather.gov/media/cle/DssPacket.pdf][NWS Austin/San Antonio — Office Page (Freeze Warning) | https://www.weather.gov/ewx/][NWS Fort Worth/Dallas — AFD/Key Messages | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?glossary=1&issuedby=fwd&product=AFD&site=NWS][NWS Seattle — Skagit River Flood Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SEW&product=FLW&site=MTR][NOAA Water — Skagit at Mt. Vernon Gauge | https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/mvew1][Office of the Governor — State of Preparedness (12/13, official; within 48h window for ongoing action) | https://governor.wv.gov/article/governor-morrisey-declares-state-preparedness] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe