The Emergency Management Network Podcast

• Critical Weather Updates: Prepare for Winter Hazards

  This podcast episode provides a comprehensive overview of the significant weather events currently affecting various regions, with a particular emphasis on the hazardous conditions prevalent in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for the Washington Cascades, predicting an accumulation of snow ranging from 10 to 36 inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to 65 miles per hour. Furthermore, the episode highlights the ongoing flooding situation in the Skagit River area near Mount Vernon, where major flooding is anticipated, prompting an extension of the flood warning into Friday. In addition, we examine the winter storm warnings affecting Juneau in Alaska, as well as the persistent lake effect snow impacting parts of New York. The episode concludes with a reminder for listeners to remain vigilant and heed local advisories regarding these severe weather conditions.A comprehensive analysis of the current meteorological conditions reveals a significant winter storm warning in effect across the Pacific Northwest, particularly impacting the Washington Cascades. The National Weather Service has forecasted an alarming accumulation of snow ranging from ten to thirty-six inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to sixty-five miles per hour. This substantial snowfall is anticipated to commence in the late afternoon and persist through Wednesday night, thereby creating hazardous travel conditions and raising concerns for residents in the affected areas. Moreover, the Skagit River is experiencing notable flooding, with warnings extended until Friday, underscoring the urgency for vigilance and preparedness among local communities.In the broader context of weather phenomena, Alaska’s Panhandle is similarly grappling with winter storm warnings, predicting an additional three to seven inches of snowfall, coupled with gusty winds of thirty-five to forty miles per hour. These conditions are expected to pose challenges for both residents and travelers alike. The Great Lakes region is not exempt from winter weather, as lake effect snow continues to affect parts of New York, particularly Jefferson and Lewis counties, where visibility may be severely compromised by intense snow bands producing rapid accumulations and slick road conditions. Such developments necessitate heightened awareness and adherence to safety protocols as the region navigates through these tumultuous winter conditions.Takeaways:* The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing severe winter storm conditions and hazards. * The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for multiple regions until Wednesday night. * Significant flooding is forecasted near Mount Vernon, affecting low-lying areas and access. * Alaska’s Panhandle continues to face winter storm warnings with additional snowfall expected today. * Cold temperatures persist in North Carolina, with wind chills posing risks to sensitive populations. * Lake effect snow continues to impact visibility and road conditions in parts of New York. Sources[NWS Juneau | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all][NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all][NWS Monterey Marine | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all] [NWS Honolulu | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=high+surf+advisory][NWS Wilmington NC | https://www.weather.gov/ilm/aviation][NWS Buffalo | https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFHWOBUF][NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=SEW&wwa=flood+warning][NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=winter+storm+warning] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

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• Is it a Black Swan Event or a Gray Rhino?

  Show NotesEmergency management often explains breakdowns through the lens of surprise, yet many of the hazards shaping our communities were visible long before impact. Todd and Dan unpack the difference between Black Swan events, which are genuinely rare and difficult to predict, and Gray Rhinos, which are highly probable, high-impact threats that are acknowledged but repeatedly deferred. The discussion explores how normalcy bias, political incentives, and institutional design can lead to the normalization of known risks and why mislabeling Gray Rhinos as Black Swans undermines resilience and professional credibility.Topics covered include:* How Black Swan events are defined and why they are often misunderstood* The concept of Gray Rhinos and how visible risks become politically inconvenient* Why emergency management defaults to the language of surprise* Normalcy bias and the danger of mistaking familiarity for safety* The gap between identifying risk and acting on it* Why mitigation and capacity building remain undervalued* How governance incentives shape preparedness outcomesKey TakeawayMost disasters are not shocking because they were unpredictable; they are devastating because they were postponed. Emergency management succeeds not by reacting well to surprise, but by refusing to ignore what is already charging straight at us. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

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• State-by-State Weather Breakdown: What to Expect Today

  The primary focus of today’s discussion centers upon the ongoing adverse weather conditions impacting various regions across the United States. As articulated, the National Weather Service has issued numerous warnings and advisories, particularly in the east and Great Lakes, where lake effect snow and severe cold conditions persist. Furthermore, we delve into the flood warnings affecting the Skagit River and the repercussions of a recent magnitude 4.0 earthquake in California, which, while not resulting in significant damage, has prompted caution regarding aftershocks. The episode also addresses hazardous travel conditions in the Los Angeles area due to dense fog and high winds in Montana, underscoring the diverse and severe weather phenomena currently in play. We conclude with a reminder of the importance of preparedness as these conditions evolve, urging listeners to prioritize their safety amidst these challenges.A comprehensive overview of the current meteorological conditions reveals a predominantly weather-driven scenario with significant implications for various regions across the United States. The National Weather Service has issued lake effect snow warnings for areas adjacent to Lakes Erie and Ontario, highlighting the persistent and severe cold that dominates the eastern parts of the country, while freeze alerts extend precariously down to the northern Gulf Coast. The discussion further elaborates on the ongoing flood crisis in Washington State, exacerbated by another deluge of rain from the Cascade Mountains, necessitating renewed vigilance as levels surge above flood stage once more. The seismic activity is also noteworthy, as a magnitude 4.0 earthquake rattled Sonoma County, California, prompting the acknowledgment of potential aftershocks, albeit with no immediate reports of significant damage. This episode serves as a crucial reminder of the unpredictable and often perilous nature of weather phenomena, urging listeners to remain informed and prepared for extreme conditions.Takeaways:* The National Weather Service warns of persistent cold weather and snow across the eastern states. * California experienced a magnitude 4.0 earthquake, with minor aftershocks but no significant damage reported. * Flood warnings are currently in effect for the Skagit River as rain increases water levels above flood stage. * Dense fog is impacting visibility in the Los Angeles area, making commutes hazardous this morning. * Freeze warnings are in place across parts of Florida, indicating significant cold weather conditions ahead. * A statewide state of preparedness has been declared in West Virginia due to expected snowfall and plunging temperatures. Sources[NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Cold headlines) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/][Freeze/Cold Advisory Example (active alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?firewxzone=FLZ009&product1=Freeze+Warning][USGS — M4.0, 6 km W of Glen Ellen, CA | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75279971][NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard — Office Page (Dense Fog Advisory) |https://www.weather.gov/lox/][NWS San Francisco/Monterey — Dense Fog Advisory (relay) | https://kioncentralcoast.com/weather-authority/alerts-weather-authority/2025/12/15/dense-fog-advisory-issued-december-15-at-151am-pst-until-december-15-at-1100am-pst-by-nws-san-francisco-ca/][NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Rip Currents/Marine) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/?n=ghwo_waves][NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (regional Freeze coverage) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/][NWS Atlanta/Peachtree City — Office Page (Cold WeatherAdvisory) | https://www.weather.gov/ffc/][NWS Great Falls — High Wind Warning (alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=59401][NWS Great Falls — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/tfx/][NWS Buffalo — Lake-Effect Snow Warning (Oswego Co. example)| https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ006][NWS Buffalo — HWO/Advisories (WNY) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ085][NWS Wilmington OH — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/iln/][MapClick — Cincinnati (Cold Weather Advisory example) | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.12711&lon=-84.51439][NWS Pittsburgh — HWO (NW PA with Lake-Effect impacts) | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ctp&wwa=hazardous+weather+outlook][NWS Cleveland — DSS Packet (Lake-Effect timing into Monday)| https://www.weather.gov/media/cle/DssPacket.pdf][NWS Austin/San Antonio — Office Page (Freeze Warning) | https://www.weather.gov/ewx/][NWS Fort Worth/Dallas — AFD/Key Messages | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?glossary=1&issuedby=fwd&product=AFD&site=NWS][NWS Seattle — Skagit River Flood Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SEW&product=FLW&site=MTR][NOAA Water — Skagit at Mt. Vernon Gauge | https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/mvew1][Office of the Governor — State of Preparedness (12/13, official; within 48h window for ongoing action) | https://governor.wv.gov/article/governor-morrisey-declares-state-preparedness] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

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• Emergency Responses to Catastrophic Weather Events in the Northwest

  The ongoing extreme atmospheric river has rendered Western Washington and northwestern Oregon in a state of emergency response. Despite a temporary easing of rainfall, the ramifications of major to catastrophic river flooding persist, with additional atmospheric rivers anticipated in the forthcoming week. FEMA’s operations continue to address evacuations, shelter provisions, and transportation disruptions in the affected regions. As we traverse various states, we note that Alaska grapples with blizzard conditions while other areas, such as New York, face significant lake effect snow. Throughout this episode, we remain vigilant in monitoring the evolving weather scenarios across the nation, emphasizing the need for preparedness and safety in light of these severe conditions.The recent EM Morning Brief delineates the ongoing challenges faced by Western Washington and northwestern Oregon as they grapple with the aftermath of an unprecedented atmospheric river event. The episode opens with a somber acknowledgment of the severe flooding that has afflicted these regions, emphasizing that while the immediate rainfall has subsided, the repercussions are far from over. The Weather Prediction Center has issued dire warnings regarding significant river flooding, which may persist for an extended period, compounded by the potential for additional atmospheric rivers in the forthcoming week. The episode articulates the crucial role of FEMA in orchestrating evacuations and providing shelter, underscoring the collaborative efforts in federal tribal coordination to mitigate the disaster’s impact.The discussion further elaborates on the broader meteorological landscape across the United States, with a particular focus on the Arctic air masses sweeping southward and the impending lake effect snow that threatens the Great Lakes region. Alaska is highlighted for its harsh conditions, including blizzard advisories and travel disruptions due to severe marine weather. The nuances of state-level responses are meticulously detailed, particularly California’s proactive measures in deploying Urban Search and Rescue Task Forces to assist in flood response operations in Washington. This segment of the episode encapsulates the interconnectedness of state responses to natural disasters, illustrating the importance of mutual aid systems in times of crisis.In addition to these primary themes, the episode touches upon localized weather phenomena affecting Idaho, Minnesota, and New York, where residents face their own sets of winter hazards and flood warnings. The narrative concludes with a call for vigilance and safety amidst the ongoing turmoil, reiterating the importance of staying informed through reliable channels. This comprehensive overview not only serves to inform but also to remind listeners of the resilience required in the face of nature’s formidable challenges.Takeaways:* The atmospheric river has significantly impacted Western Washington and northwestern Oregon, necessitating ongoing emergency responses. * FEMA is currently coordinating evacuations, opening shelters, and managing transportation disruptions in the affected regions. * Flood warnings remain in effect across Idaho, with specific rivers experiencing critical flooding conditions. * Minnesota has issued cold weather advisories due to dangerous wind chills and snow hazards expected this weekend. * In Oregon, river flooding continues, prompting the National Weather Service to maintain flood warnings and advisories for local communities. * Texas is experiencing dense fog conditions, impacting visibility and travel safety across the coastal region. Sources[NWS Fairbanks | https://www.weather.gov/afg/][Alaska Marine Highway—Service Notices | https://dot.alaska.gov/amhs/service_notices.shtml][Office of the Governor | https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/12/11/governor-newsom-deploys-resources-as-atmospheric-river-causes-catastrophic-flooding-in-the-pacific-northwest/][NWS Spokane—Flood Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?lat=47.9744&lon=-116.3059&product1=Flood+Warning][Bonner County Daily Bee | https://bonnercountydailybee.com/news/2025/dec/12/flood-emergency-declared-in-shoshone-county-coeur-/][NWS Duluth—Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/][City of Libby—Boil Order (Dec. 11) | https://cityoflibby.com/][Montana Free Press | https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/11/atmospheric-river-drives-flooding-in-northwest-montana/][NWS Buffalo—Lake-Effect Snow Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20warning][Democrat & Chronicle | https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/weather/2025/12/12/lake-effect-snow-warning-new-york-how-much-snow-totals-snowstorm-forecast/87730027007/][NWS Portland—Watches/Warnings | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/][The Astorian | https://www.dailyastorian.com/news/local/flood-warning-issued-for-highway-101-at-seaside/article_b5fd6266-1d0b-11ef-a72a-931dbd6c3e83.html][NWS Corpus Christi | https://www.weather.gov/crp/][Laredo Morning Times | https://www.lmtonline.com/local/article/weather-nws-fog-mist-visibility-hazardous-traffic-21237911.php][NWS Seattle—Watches/Warnings | https://www.weather.gov/sew/][Governor of Washington—Emergency Proclamation | https://governor.wa.gov/news/2025/washington-state-responds-severe-weather-emergency-proclamation-issued] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

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• Statewide Emergency Declared as Flooding Escalates in Washington

  The current episode elucidates the dire situation unfolding in the Pacific Northwest, where a potent atmospheric river has instigated severe flooding, prompting the governor of Washington to declare a statewide emergency. As multiple rivers reach or exceed flood stage, the National Guard has been activated to assist in the response efforts. We explore the rapid rise of levee concerns, particularly in regions such as the Skagit, Snohomish, Chehalis, Cowlitz, and Puyallup basins, underscoring the critical need for residents to heed local evacuation guidance and avoid flooded roadways. Moreover, we discuss the implications of high wind warnings in southeastern Wyoming, where gusts have reached alarmingly high levels, resulting in hazardous driving conditions. This episode aims to provide an informed overview of the ongoing weather-related adversities, emphasizing the necessity for vigilance and preparedness in the face of such natural calamities.A persistent atmospheric river continues to exert its influence over the Pacific Northwest, leading to severe weather conditions characterized by intense precipitation and resultant flooding. The governor of Washington has declared a statewide emergency, which has necessitated the activation of the National Guard to assist in mitigating the impact of the flooding that affects multiple rivers, some of which are reaching or exceeding flood stage. Concerns regarding levee integrity remain paramount, particularly in the Skagit, Snohomish, Chehalis, Cowlitz, and Puyallup basins, where swift rises in water levels pose a significant risk to the surrounding communities. Residents are urged to exercise caution, avoiding flooded roadways and adhering to local evacuation directives as the situation develops. As we navigate through this precarious weather event, the Weather Prediction Center has issued warnings for elevated rainfall risks across western Washington and northwest Oregon, with the potential for additional precipitation persisting into the weekend, thereby exacerbating the already critical conditions.Takeaways:* The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing severe weather conditions due to a powerful atmospheric river. * Governor of Washington has declared a statewide emergency, activating the National Guard for flood response. * Residents are advised to avoid flooded roads and adhere to local evacuation guidance promptly. * Wyoming is facing significant wind hazards, resulting in the closure of major highway segments. * Alaska has established a Bethel Assistance Hub to aid survivors from the recent West Coast storm. * New York continues to experience winter storm warnings due to lake effect snow and hazardous travel conditions. Sources[FEMA | https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20251210/bethel-assistance-hub-opens-dec-11-support-alaskans][NWS Anchorage | https://www.weather.gov/afc][NWS Buffalo WSW | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=all][NWS Fort Drum/Watertown Hazard Page | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.972377&lon=-75.911254][NWS Portland Flood Statements | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=flood%20warning][PBOT Travel Advisory | https://www.portland.gov/transportation/news/2025/12/8/travel-advisory-heavy-rains-monday-night-through-wednesday-and][ODOT TripCheck | https://www.tripcheck.com/DynamicReports/Report/RoadConditions/0][Governor WA News Release | https://governor.wa.gov/news/news-releases][Proclamation (PDF) | https://governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/25-07%20-%20Atmospheric%20River.pdf][NWS Seattle Flood Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=flood+warning][WPC ERO | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php][AP | https://apnews.com/article/28344ef2f138633444ab247b91c4e4f4][NWS Cheyenne High Wind Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=cys&wwa=high+wind+warning][WYDOT I-80 | https://www.wyoroad.info/pls/Browse/WRR.RoutesResults?SelectedRoute=I80][WYDOT I-25 | https://www.wyoroad.info/pls/Browse/WRR.RoutesResults?SelectedRoute=I25] This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

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