Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Steve Rekuc, Director of Data at Common Thread Collective, joins Richard to break down the Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 year-over-year data from the DTC Index.
The headline: Meta spend is up 25% year over year while ROAS only degraded 3%. Google ROAS actually increased 12% despite higher spend. The platforms are getting more elastic.
In this episode:
Total revenue up 13.6% YoY with more coming from returning customers

Meta spend up 25.28% with only 3% ROAS degradation 

Google ROAS up 12% with 3.65% more spend

Why AI-driven ad delivery is making both platforms better

CPMs are up but click-through rates are improving

The DTC Index data set: 200-300 stores, proprietary consumer confidence metrics

Consumer confidence: future purchase sentiment and hope for the economy

How the DTCCI (DTC Consumer Confidence Index) predicts spending elasticity

Show Notes:
Go to https://www.chargeflow.io/ and use CF30 to recover chargebacks free for 30 days.

Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine

The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

The number one pain point brands bring to us: "My current agency gives me execution, not strategy."
Luke and Richard, break down why that complaint, while valid, doesn't go far enough.
Most brands are stuck in one of two broken relationships:
An agency that only executes (you tell them what to do, they do it)

A consultant that only strategizes (they give you a plan and leave)

Neither owns the outcome. And that's the real problem.
In this episode, Luke and Richard walk through the hierarchy of what actually matters:
Execution is the baseline (necessary but not sufficient)

Strategy is the ascension (backed by data, methodology, and experience)

Outcome is the North Star (predictable results you can hold someone accountable to)

Key insight: If the outcome isn't there, the strategy doesn't matter. If the strategy isn't there, the execution is just busy work. The Prophit Engine is built to own all three.
3% forecast accuracy across billions in managed revenue. That's outcome ownership.
Show Notes:
Axon is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://axon.ai/en/ctc to set up your first campaign.

Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine

The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Taylor and Luke, walk through exactly how the Prophit Engine system enables one person to deliver the work and outcome of three.
This isn't about replacing people with AI. It's about what happens when you combine 12 years of methodology, a purpose-built data infrastructure, and an operator empowered by enterprise-grade tooling.
In this roundtable replay, Taylor demos:
How data infrastructure creates the foundation for fast decisions

The planning process: marketing calendar → financial forecast → daily targets

Statlas dashboard: from contribution margin to campaign-level actions

The Hierarchy of Metrics: diagnosing problems top to bottom

Creative demand planning: how many ads, what products, which moments

Outlier engine: why 3.5% of ads drive 66% of spend

How AI context layers are making Prophit Engineers move 10x faster

Luke walks through:
Creative analytics: spending power, outlier rates, activation economics

How to turn creative production from gambling into math

Key stat: 3% forecast-to-target accuracy across $3B+ in managed revenue.
Show Notes:
Go to https://www.chargeflow.io/ and use CF30 to recover chargebacks free for 30 days.

Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine

The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Tony Chopp, walks through the Hierarchy of Metrics — the framework our Prophit Engineers use to diagnose problems and take action for 170+ ecommerce brands.
In this episode, Tony and Richard break down a real brand example in Statlas, showing how you go from a contribution margin miss all the way down to a specific campaign adjustment in Google Ads.
The hierarchy:
Business-level metrics (revenue, contribution margin, ad spend)

Customer-level metrics (new vs. returning, paid vs. organic)

Channel-level metrics (Google, Meta, email — iROAS by channel)

Campaign-level actions (bids, budgets, new creative)

Key takeaways:
Your ROAS target should be backed into through incrementality math and unit economics — not vibes

"4 is not necessarily better than 3" — if 3 is the right number based on your COGS and incrementality, targeting 4 leaves volume on the table

Over-efficiency is a symptom of underspend, not a badge of honor

Good data in = good decisions out. The system is only as strong as your cost data, audience segmentation, and incrementality testing

Show Notes:
See how their guarantees work at https://redstag.com/

Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine

The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

AI is changing how ecommerce brands produce creative. But most brands are using it wrong.
They're generating entire ads with AI and wondering why performance drops. Or they're ignoring it entirely and falling behind on volume.
In this episode, we break down how to actually use AI in your creative workflow without sacrificing the authenticity that drives results. The brands winning with AI aren't replacing their creative process. They're using AI to scale what already works.
What we cover:
Why pure AI-generated creative sees CTR drops within 3 weeks

Where AI actually adds value in the creative pipeline (backgrounds, cleanup, iteration)

How to maintain authenticity while increasing creative volume

The production ecosystem that lets you play probability instead of gambling

Why 3-5% of your ads drive 70-80% of spend and what that means for AI

If you're running Meta ads and trying to figure out where AI fits into your creative strategy, this episode cuts through the hype.
Show Notes:
Axon is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://axon.ai/en/ctc to set up your first campaign.

Explore the Prophit Engine Lite: https://meetings.hubspot.com/richard-gaffin

The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have