Changing Climate, Changing Migration

A forecasted historic El Niño, labeled “Super Godzilla,” is expected to peak in late 2026 and turn 2027 into the hottest year ever recorded on the planet. Expected to be the largest El Niño in at least 1,000 years, the event is expected to result in extreme temperatures, devastating rainfall and droughts, and other unusual weather patterns globally. Although the event is a naturally occurring phenomenon in the Pacific, its impacts are magnified by human-caused climate change.

That could lead to huge displacement.

In this episode, we speak with Alexander Kjærum, a global advisor and senior analyst with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) who has forecasted some of the potential displacement impacts of the super El Niño. He explains why the weather system may lead to new displacement, highlights specific examples around the world, and discusses how organizations are seeking to use anticipatory action to protect people before disaster strikes.

 

Chapters

01:38 El Niño's Global Weather Impacts

03:22 Displacement Forecasts for East Africa

09:31 Climate Stress, Conflict, and Trapped Populations

14:33 Anticipatory Action, Cost-Efficiency, and Funding Cuts

In 2016, the U.S. federal government provided $48 million to relocate the climate-threatened Louisiana island of Isle de Jean Charles. The effort, which was the government’s first climate-driven community relocation project, was closely watched as a potential model for the future.

But the relocation was more challenging than originally anticipated. Many residents who were members of a Native American tribe felt they had been treated unfairly or were excluded from decisionmaking. In the end, some tribal leaders referred to the process as a “cultural genocide.”

We speak with Jessica Simms, a cultural geographer who was Louisiana’s lead outreach and engagement coordinator for the resettlement effort. She traces the array of factors behind the decision to relocate and the mix of successes and challenges along the way.

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Chapters

01:44 Louisiana's Disappearing Coastline
07:46 Previous Failed Relocation Attempts
09:07 Federal Funding and National Goals
13:50 Miscommunication between Tribes and the State
17:30 Outreach Efforts and Voluntary Relocation
22:02 The Relocation's Legacy

Fiji has long been at the forefront of developing policies to help its residents voluntarily relocate to escape the extreme effects of climate change. The country, which is comprised of hundreds of islands in the Pacific, faces rising sea levels, extreme weather, and other dangers.

But for many Fijians, the choice to pack up and leave home is a difficult one. Many have a deep spiritual and personal connection to place, a concept known as vanua. Meanwhile, as one of the largest economies in the region, Fiji is also a destination for migrants from other Pacific Island countries, including those threatened by climate change.

How has the government tried to support people who move? What considerations do residents consider when deciding whether to relocate? And what is the response to immigration from other countries?

On this episode, we discuss these issues with Sargam Goundar, a Fijian doctoral researcher at the University of Otago.

 

Chapters

01:41 Climate Impacts Unfolding in Fiji

04:54 Government-Led Planned Relocation Framework

08:17 The Concept of Vanua: Cultural Ties to Land

13:10 Community Concerns and Decision-Making Around Relocation

16:44 Fiji as a Regional Migration Destination

22:16 Policy Gaps and Research Priorities

The coordinated global response to climate change-driven displacement is relatively new. Just a few decades ago, virtually no governments were paying attention to the ways in which people were being displaced by extreme weather, sea-level rise, and other climate events. Although the international response remains a work in progress, significant strides have been made to bring the world together.

One of the people responsible for that coordination is Walter Kälin, a longtime humanitarian expert and legal scholar who is now the Envoy of the Chair of the Platform on Disaster Displacement, a country-led initiative that works to protect people at risk of climate-related displacement. In this discussion, he breaks down where things stand today in terms of a coordinated response and how things might evolve in the future.

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Chapters

01:15 Evolution of Global Displacement Policy

06:45 Climate Change Enters the Displacement Agenda (2004–2010)

10:28 The Nansen Initiative and the Birth of the Platform on Disaster Displacement

17:55 Lessons Learned: Bottom-Up Over Top-Down Approaches

19:58 Navigating Declining Funding and Political Fragmentation

24:30 Advice for the Next Generation

Climate change can be devastating for individuals’ health and safety. Climate-linked natural disasters can cause physical injuries and damage health-care systems, while slow-onset changes such sea-level rise can lead to the spread of disease and make it harder for people to obtain care.

In that context, leaving a climate-vulnerable place can potentially lead to better health outcomes—but only under the right circumstances.

In this episode, we speak with Ilse Ruyssen, an economist at Ghent University and the UN University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies, who leads the CliMigHealth research network.

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Chapters

01:19 Health Vulnerability among Climate Migrants

05:13 Groups at Highest Risk

08:36 When Migration Protects Health

11:51 How Climate Change Directly Harms Health

17:02 Strain on Health-Care Systems

22:18 Countering the "Migrants as Health Risk" Narrative

25:48 Mental Health and Climate Displacement

27:48 What to Do?