In it to Win it

In this week's Monday Market Moves, I break down a 0.9% S&P 500 breakout, falling volatility, and major moves across gold, oil, and Bitcoin to map out where markets are likely headed next.
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Recorded on 5-1-2026. I break down the S&P 500 pushing up 0.9% and testing key Fibonacci levels while flashing mixed signals that suggest a short term pullback before continuation. I also highlight volatility dropping sharply and the dollar showing early signs of a bounce despite a longer-term bearish trend. Across rates and macro, I explain why yields may push toward 4.5% and what that means for risk assets.
I then dive deep into commodities where gold is down 2% and stuck in a wide range while silver surprises with a breakout setup that could lead to upside next week. Copper weakens, signaling economic softness, while uranium stays rangebound and oil surges nearly 9% despite expectations of near-term downside. I also cover a major breakout in nickel, continued strength in coal, and a bearish setup in Bitcoin driven by a larger bear flag pattern. I close with tactical setups, key levels, and how I'm thinking about positioning into next week.
 
Key Insights in this episode
✅ S&P 500 up 0.9% testing 38.2% Fibonacci resistance near $7000 with mixed signals
✅ VIX down 9.2% approaching $13.5 buy zone signaling lower fear
✅ Gold down 2% trading in $4100 to $5000 range with sideways bias
✅ Silver flat but breakout suggests upside toward $80 to $82 resistance
✅ Oil WTI up 8% and Brent up 9.3% but short term pullback expected
✅ Bitcoin down 0.3% forming bear flag with potential rejection near $84000
 
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Chapters
00:00 S&P 500 Breakout And Market Direction
03:50 Gold Trend And Key Levels
09:06 Silver Breakout And Price Outlook
13:21 Copper Weakness And Market Signals
14:54 Uranium Strategy And Positioning
17:35 Oil Surge And Future Outlook
22:05 Natural Gas Resistance Trade Setup
23:43 Coal Market Strength And Entry Timing
24:55 Platinum And Precious Metals Correlation
26:08 Nickel Breakout And Upside Potential
28:40 Bitcoin Bear Flag And Downtrend Risk
29:39 Final Thoughts And Trading Wrap Up
 
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.
#SteveBarton #SP500 #Gold #Silver #Oil #Bitcoin #Copper #Nickel #Uranium #NaturalGas #Coal #MacroOutlook #Investing #Commodities #StockMarket #Trading #Finance #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #MarketAnalysis #SteveBarton #InItToWinIt

Rick Rule, one of the most respected natural resource investors of the past 50 years, and Mike Rothman, founder of Cornerstone Analytics and a veteran energy market analyst.
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Recording Date 4-28-2026. In this episode, Rick and Mike into a bold and controversial thesis that the world is not facing an oil glut but a structural supply crisis. Mike brings decades of experience studying oil supply, demand, and geopolitics, while Rick offers a capital allocator's perspective shaped by cycles across mining, energy, and commodities. Together, they explore whether the world is on the brink of a major energy bull market. The conversation challenges mainstream narratives around oversupply and instead presents a case for a tightening market. From flawed demand forecasts to declining investment, the episode sets the stage for a potentially explosive shift in energy prices.
Mike outlines how global inventories are collapsing despite widespread claims of excess supply, driven by underestimated demand and declining non-OPEC production. He highlights how geopolitical disruptions have removed massive volumes of oil from the market, accelerating an already tight supply backdrop. Rick reinforces this by explaining how deferred capital spending has permanently damaged production capacity, making recovery far more difficult than markets expect. Both experts agree that rising prices are not just speculative but necessary to ration demand and restore balance. The conversation concludes with a powerful message that energy equities remain in the middle innings of a long-term bull cycle with significant upside ahead.
 
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Global oil demand continues to rise despite higher prices, defying traditional economic theory
✅ Underinvestment of over 3.6 trillion dollars has structurally reduced future oil supply
✅ Non OPEC production growth is slowing while shale output faces steep decline rates
✅ Inventory drawdowns contradict the widespread belief in a global oil glut
✅ Geopolitical disruptions have removed over 10 million barrels per day from supply
✅ Energy equities are still in the middle phase of a multi year secular bull market
 
Tools for Success that I Love and find Helpful / Affiliates:
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Chapters
00:00 Introduction Energy Bull Market Setup
02:22 Rothman Macro Oil Market Framework
06:40 Non OPEC Supply Breakdown And Inventory Draws
11:05 Global Supply Shock And Geopolitical Disruption
15:48 Strategic Reserve Releases And Price Impact
21:01 Underinvestment And Missing Barrels Explained
29:29 Demand Miscalculation And Phantom Oil Supply
32:56 Rick Rule Investor Thesis And Market Reality
37:42 Emerging Markets Demand And Energy Consumption
44:56 US Rig Count Decline And Shale Reality
49:54 Gasoline Prices Versus Diesel Crisis Explained
55:33 Closing Thoughts And Premium Segment Preview
 
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.
 
#RickRule #MikeRothman #OilCrisis #EnergyBullMarket #OilPrices #Commodities #EnergyStocks #MacroEconomics #Inflation #SupplyShock #OPEC #ShaleOil #GlobalMarkets #Investing #NaturalResources #OilDemand #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics #DieselCrisis #StockMarket #SteveBarton #InItToWinIt

In this week's Monday Market Moves, I break down a shocking divergence across markets as stocks push higher toward new targets while gold and silver sharply sell off and oil explodes 13% raising the question of whether we are witnessing the start of a major macro shift.
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Recorded on 4-24-2026. I walk through the S&P 500 pushing higher after breaking key Fibonacci resistance while the U.S. dollar continues to weaken inside a long-term channel. I also highlight rising bond yields signaling potential stress in global demand for U.S. debt. Across commodities I analyze sharp pullbacks in gold and silver alongside a strong surge in oil and a breakout in nickel that could signal a major trend shift.
I then dive into the implications of these moves and where capital could flow next. Precious metals are showing weakness with downside targets forming while copper and uranium remain mixed with slight bullish bias. Energy markets surged but are likely due for a pullback as technical resistance kicks in. Natural gas appears to be breaking down structurally while coal enters a seasonal opportunity window. Finally, I assess Bitcoin sitting at a key inflection point with no clear edge signaling caution for traders in the near term.
 
Key Insights in this episode
✅ S&P 500 up 0.6% with bullish continuation targeting $7400 via Fibonacci extension
✅ U.S. dollar downtrend intact with potential breakdown toward 90 level
✅ Gold down 2.8% with possible retracement toward $4000 and 38.2% level
✅ Silver down 6.6% confirming bear flag with further downside likely
✅ Oil up 13% but showing signs of short-term reversal after resistance hit
✅ Nickel up 6.25% with confirmed breakout signaling strong upside momentum
 
Affiliates /Tools for Success that I Love and find Helpful:
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Technical Analysis Series

New Orleans Investment Conference Nov 2-5, 2025  
Rule Classroom (Free) 
Rule Classroom Plus (2 Free Months) 
TradingView (Free) 
Lobo's Weekly Recap (Free) 
Uranium Newsletter 
 
Chapters
00:00 S&P 500 Bullish Setup And Targets
02:00 U.S. Dollar Breakdown Risk
04:04 Gold Pullback And Key Levels
07:08 Silver Bear Flag Breakdown
12:46 Copper Resistance And Breakout Watch
14:38 Uranium Market Outlook
16:20 Oil Surge And Reversal Setup
20:52 Natural Gas Breakdown Warning
22:40 Coal Seasonal Opportunity
24:00 Platinum And Palladium Weakness
25:59 Nickel Breakout Confirmation
27:40 Bitcoin Key Inflection Point
 
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.
 
#SteveBarton #RickRule #SP500 #Gold #Silver #Copper #Uranium #Oil #NaturalGas #Nickel #Bitcoin #Commodities #MacroTrends #Investing #StockMarket #EnergyCrisis #Inflation #Trading #PreciousMetals #Crypto #SteveBarton #InItToWinIt

Rick Rule is a legendary natural resource investor and longtime market strategist known for his deep expertise in commodities and mining equities.
👉 Rule Symposium 2026
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Recording Date 4-24-2026. In this episode of the Rule Classroom Plus, Rick joins Steve Barton to break down key insights from recent bootcamps, including copper and uranium, while also walking through real-time investor questions. Rick covers how to properly evaluate mining companies, what separates successful operators from weak ones, and why due diligence remains the most critical skill for investors. Rick emphasizes disciplined thinking, skepticism, and understanding management quality as core pillars of success. This episode is both a masterclass and a real-world application of resource investing principles.
Rick dives into major macro risks including a potential liquidity crisis, rising credit concerns, and geopolitical shocks such as disruptions in global energy supply chains. He explains why he is raising cash, trimming winners, and preparing for volatility despite strong commodity trends. The discussion highlights opportunities in silver equities, uranium portfolios, and select copper and royalty plays, while also warning about overvaluation and structural risks in ETFs and lithium markets. Rick stresses patience, contrarian thinking, and buying during periods of extreme pessimism as the key to outsized returns. He closes by reinforcing that investor education and independent judgment are more valuable than any single stock pick.
 
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Rick Rule is actively raising cash due to rising liquidity and credit risks
✅ Silver stocks are undervalued relative to metal prices based on NPV assumptions
✅ Lithium supply is abundant but processing capacity is the real bottleneck
✅ High yield bond ETFs carry hidden liquidity risks beneath the surface
✅ Best investment opportunities appear when sectors are deeply hated
✅ Large tier one deposits consistently outperform smaller mining projects
 
Tools for Success that I Love and find Helpful / Affiliates:
Technical Analysis Series 
Rule Symposium 2026
Rule Classroom (Free) 
Rule Classroom Plus (2 Free Months) 
TradingView (Free)
Lobo's Weekly Recap (Free)
Uranium Insider Newsletter
 
Chapters
00:00 Welcome To Rule Classroom Plus
00:51 Copper Bootcamp And Luca Due Diligence
03:00 Mining Team Experience And Local Expertise
03:50 Luca Mining And Empress Royalty Updates
05:27 Discovery Silver And Mexico Permit Catalyst
07:08 Lithium Refining And Processing Capacity
08:54 Vetting Companies And Management Fees
11:00 Mega Uranium And Holding Company Discount
13:09 Canadian Copper In New Brunswick
14:57 Marin Energy Rating And Lundin Selling
16:06 Strait Of Hormuz And Liquidity Risk
17:27 High Yield ETF Liquidity Concerns
19:45 Lobo Tiggre Cash Position
21:19 Occidental Petroleum Valuation
22:22 Silver Stocks Outperformance Indicator
25:15 Lundin Royalty Ranking And Strategy
26:44 Energy Fuels Uranium And Rare Earths
28:10 Jurisdiction Risk In Resource Bonds
29:34 Royalty Valuations And NAV Premiums
31:38 Lifezone Metals Catalysts
33:14 Aldebaran Resources Ranking
34:35 Paramount Resources And Canadian Oil
35:17 New Found Gold Size And Fundraising
36:23 Lifezone Centaurus And Nickel Picks
37:26 Magnum Mining Copper And Nickel Optionality
38:39 Battle Bank Account Feedback
39:59 Ero Copper Opinion
40:36 Exxon Bonds Versus US Treasuries
41:47 Tungsten Market And Pure Tungsten
42:48 Snowline Gold And Bravo Mining
44:33 Battle Bank For Non US Residents
45:48 Emerita And Denarius Bid
46:53 How To Support Rick Rule
48:17 Lumina Metals And Polish Copper Silver
49:59 Banyan Gold Production Potential
52:30 Gold Hart Copper Opinion
54:40 Western Copper And Casino Project
56:36 Final Thoughts And Investor Education
 
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.
 
#RickRule #Commodities #MiningStocks #Silver #Gold #Copper #Uranium #Lithium #EnergyCrisis #MacroEconomics #Investing #StockMarket #NaturalResources #ETFs #CreditRisk #Inflation #ResourceInvesting #PreciousMetals #OilMarkets #LiquidityCrisis #SteveBarton #InItToWinIt

Matt Warder is the founder of Sea Wolf Research and a leading expert in coal, metals, and global supply chains.
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Recording Date 4-22-2026. In this episode, he breaks down the critical differences between thermal and metallurgical coal while revealing why both are essential to global growth. He explains how energy demand continues to rise despite the narrative around coal's decline and why supply constraints are the real story. The conversation highlights how coal remains deeply embedded in electricity generation and steel production worldwide. Warder sets the stage for a major shift in how investors should think about energy markets.
Matt moves into the powerful macro forces shaping coal markets, including geopolitical tensions, supply destruction, and rising input costs like diesel. Matt outlines how disruptions in global gas supply and conflict-driven shocks are pushing demand back toward coal, creating a structural floor for prices. He emphasizes the importance of seasonal cycles and explains how current price action could define the baseline for the next decade. The episode also explores how inflationary pressures will ripple across energy and materials, driving long-term upside volatility. Investors are urged to focus on key benchmarks and timing cycles correctly to capitalize on the opportunity.
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Coal demand is stable to rising while supply remains extremely constrained
✅ Thermal coal powers electricity while metallurgical coal is essential for steel production
✅ Diesel costs are a major driver of mining expenses and set price floors
✅ Global gas supply disruptions are forcing increased reliance on coal
✅ Shoulder season creates predictable short-term price weakness and buying opportunities
✅ Long-term trend points to energy driven inflation and rising commodity prices
 
Tools for Success that I Love and find Helpful / Affiliates:
Technical Analysis Series 
Rule Symposium 2026
Rule Classroom (Free) 
Rule Classroom Plus (2 Free Months) 
TradingView (Free)
Lobo's Weekly Recap (Free)
Uranium Insider Newsletter
 
Chapters
00:00 Matt Warder On Coal And Commodity Markets
01:14 Thermal Coal Vs Met Coal Basics
03:23 Supply Demand Outlook For Coal
05:50 Iran Conflict And The New Coal Bull Case
11:49 API2 And Global Thermal Coal Pricing
15:21 Common Mistakes In Coal Stock Investing
17:17 Best Indicators For Tracking Coal
21:16 How To Follow Matt Warder
22:21 Premium Discussion On Top Coal Stocks
 
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.
 
#MattWarder #CoalMarkets #EnergyCrisis #ThermalCoal #MetCoal #Commodities #Inflation #GlobalEnergy #MiningStocks #SteelProduction #EnergyTransition #MacroTrends #SupplyChain #NaturalGas #OilMarkets #CoalStocks #Investing #Trading #Geopolitics #MarketOutlook #SteveBarton #InItToWinIt