Markets Unscripted

Markets are being shaken by rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and increasingly erratic price action. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the key signals traders should be watching right now — and why this environment may be far more dangerous than most investors realize.
Instead of guessing headlines, they focus on what the market itself is telling us through liquidity, positioning, and price behavior.
Topics covered include:
• The QQQ vs Consumer Staples (XLP) ratio and what it says about market risk
• The Up/Down Volume Ratio used by William O’Neil to identify buying vs selling pressure
• Why traders are getting trapped in both directions
• The role of oil prices and geopolitical tensions in driving market psychology
• Warning signals coming from credit markets and liquidity
• Why patience and risk management matter more than predictions
They also look at historical examples — including the 1990 Gulf War market, Cisco’s early leadership, and Amazon after the dot-com crash — to show how major opportunities often emerge during chaotic markets.
If you’re trying to navigate volatile conditions, this episode focuses on the signals that actually matter.
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00:00 Markets rattled by oil spike and geopolitical tensions
01:03 The QQQ vs XLP ratio: a warning sign for difficult markets
02:40 Why traders keep getting stopped out in this environment
03:35 William O’Neil’s Up-Down Volume indicator explained
05:56 Jason’s take: positioning data and why there’s “no edge” right now
08:30 Why modern markets may be more efficient than ever
10:40 Risk management when nothing seems to work
12:30 The dangerous psychology of volatile markets
14:40 Why strict trading rules keep professionals out of trouble
16:00 Oil spikes and the strategic reserve debate
18:00 Lessons from the chaotic 2011 market environment
20:40 Why real trends require falling volatility
21:50 The psychology of oil and stock market reactions
25:40 Growth stocks sending warning signals
27:00 Historical comparison: the 1990 oil shock and market drop
29:00 “Patience, then pounce” – why traders should wait for opportunity
31:20 Positioning extremes in energy and commodities
33:00 Credit markets and liquidity warning signals
36:00 Why shorting the stock market is so difficult
40:00 The Cisco example: spotting early market leaders
43:30 Amazon after the dot-com crash: how huge winners begin
47:00 Listener question: why traders don’t just “take the opposite side”
50:00 The myth of high win-rate trading strategies
53:30 Key indicators to watch next week

Markets opened on major geopolitical headlines… and then did what markets love to do: the opposite of the consensus trade.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why “logical” trades can be the most dangerous, how to read the market reaction across assets (oil, gold/silver, bonds, dollar, crypto), and why a rangebound index can still be a stock-picker’s market.They also get practical: how support/resistance gets reinforced (not “magical”), why laggards often warn you early, and how to throttle intensity when it’s not your environment.Timestamps:00:11 Weekend shock vs Monday reality: “consensus trade” breaks down01:20 The expected playbook (oil up, stocks down, crypto down) — and what actually happened05:00 War premiums, liquidity, and why markets re-price after uncertainty clears08:00 Market logic vs real-world logic (housing stocks vs housing prices)15:15 Why ranges get “too clean” — and why failed moves get fast21:17 A market going nowhere… with huge winners and losers24:12 The most underrated skill: forgive yourself + protect capital when it’s not your environment34:50 EOS(E) as a live example: sector strong, stock weak = “something’s wrong”40:02 Jason’s definition of tape reading: what should happen vs what did happen51:04 Liquidity watch: AI spend, private credit, war — and the risk if markets stop responding to liquidity1:00:01 Names on the radar (FCX, SCCO, CCJ, optical/AI infrastructure) + what “acting well” looks likeLinks:Caruso Insights: www.carusoInsights.comCrowded Market Report: www.crowdedMarketReport.com

Macro headlines are loud again — tariffs, inflation data, and “AI doomsday” research making the rounds — but the market’s message is a lot more nuanced.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why Friday’s strength mattered (even with ugly macro prints), why we’re still stuck in a range-bound tape, and why dispersion (long/short + relative performance) remains the real trade in 2026.They also tackle the viral “2028 AI crisis” narrative and explain why traders can’t live inside forecasts — the market will signal the truth before the headlines feel “obvious.” From there, they get tactical: shortages vs disruption, credit spreads as a core macro tell, commodity positioning, and a few stock/ETF charts that are acting right even on weak market days.Finally, they shift gears into a rapid-fire trading book list — the titles that actually shaped how they think, execute, and stay sane.• Market Wizards by Jack Schwager• How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil• Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas• Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy• Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre• The Perfect Speculator by Brad KoteshwarConnect With Us• Matt Caruso (Caruso Insights): https://www.carusoinsights.com• Jason Shapiro (Crowded Market Report): https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com#stockmarket2026 #tradingmindset #marketwizards #mattcaruso #JasonShapiro #MarketsUnscripted #TradingBooks #AIInvesting

Markets have been under pressure, with a weird twist: AI is hitting both sides of the market. “Legacy” businesses are getting repriced on disruption fears, while the mega-cap tech leaders are slipping on CapEx / return concerns. Matt and Jason break down what that actually means for positioning right now—why chop can still be opportunity, how to avoid getting pulled into “X narratives,” and why the market’s message matters more than opinions.They also hit the biggest debate of the week: Michael Burry vs. Palantir, why “being right” can still be expensive, and what matters most when a former leader stops acting like a leader. Finally, they close with a new weekly scoreboard idea (Matt vs. Jason) featuring Texas Instruments (TXN) vs. Sugar (CANE) as the setups to watch next week.Chapters00:00 Markets weak, AI “destroyer vs savior” contradiction01:06 Jason’s key level: why Thursday’s market action matters03:03 Matt’s framework: dot-com style rollout (1995–96) + washout thesis07:09 Winners vs losers: why long/short is working in chop11:14 Liquidity, positioning, and why a deep bear case is harder16:45 Palantir + Burry: market signals vs “X narratives”23:08 Returns debate: Buffett, benchmarks, and the “needle-mover” approach30:49 AI trading bots: why trading can’t be “solved”38:26 Futures corner: Sugar crowding, WASDE, and the signal Jason needs42:17 EDGE Report mention + why leadership lists matter43:40 Scoreboard begins: TXN breakout level vs Sugar trigger47:15 Closing: where strength is hiding + question box for next week

In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that “goes nowhere” on the index level—but is wildly different under the surface. They dig into relative strength vs. weakness, why “the tape is everything,” how context changes what signals actually matter, and why the real opportunity often sits in the unpopular places (materials, energy, industrial inputs, and the “behind-the-scenes” AI supply chain).They also walk through Jason’s current commodity focus (sugar), what crowded positioning can and can’t tell you, and how to think about risk so you can stay in the game long enough to catch the big ones.Websites:Matt: www.carusoInsights.comJason: www.crowdedMarketReport.comQuestions: www.marketsUnscripted.comTimeStamps00:00 Why a flat index is misleading02:10 Relative strength vs. hidden weakness under the surface07:39 Crypto breaking down while stocks refuse to follow10:32 Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq — the tape leads the narrative13:54 “There’s no reason it’s going down” is a trader’s trap16:03 Context beats indicators (Micron example)19:27 Breakouts on good news vs. breakouts on no news23:14 Why not understanding AI can actually be an edge30:49 The real “rules of the game” for staying alive35:29 Sugar: the most crowded trade in the world37:08 What a true news-failure setup looks like46:12 The real AI winners: energy, materials, and inputs56:37 The “tell” — what’s strong when it shouldn’t be