Hydrogen was once the golden child of the energy transition. Yet high costs and limited policy support proved high hurdles for the technology’s progress, global deployment has fallen well short of expectations. Forecasts now project around 5.5 million tons of production by 2030 – half of what was expected just a few years ago and far below industry and government ambitions. Of course, as with all things energy transition, the story gets more complicated the closer you look. The US is betting on blue hydrogen even as it turns away from many clean technologies, China is driving ahead with green, and India is emerging as a low-cost producer. And around the world, hydrogen is gradually gaining a foothold in hard-to-abate sectors like shipping and aviation, where the fuel could play a transformative role. On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, to discuss some of his team’s recent work, including “Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead” and “Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37489?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119 Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37457?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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32:16
COP30 Countdown: Ambition, Politics, Reality
In a few days’ time, world leaders will gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate conference. It’s been 10 years since the Paris Agreement laid out ambitions for a net-zero future, yet momentum is waning. Fewer than a third of nations have submitted their 2035 climate pledges, and current trajectories suggest that the global warming threshold agreed in Paris will be far exceeded by the end of the century. Political shifts, economic pressures, and the US’s withdrawal from the Agreement are all casting a shadow over the upcoming negotiations. Still, there are glimmers of progress, including China unveiling its first absolute emissions target and Brazil pushing for a global carbon market. So can COP30 reignite the collective drive toward net zero? On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of global policy, Victoria Cuming, and energy transitions associate Brynne Mary Merkley to discuss their recent note “COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37817See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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31:33
Capital Clash: Clean Energy vs Fossil Fuel Finance
Global energy investment is entering a period of realignment. Tariffs, inflation and geopolitical tensions have disrupted financial models, while a backlash against ESG along with renewed fossil fuel demand, driven partly by AI’s power needs, are redirecting capital flows. At the same time, electricity demand continues to rise, intensifying competition between clean and conventional energy. So how can investors and banks determine where their best opportunities lie, whether in clean technologies or fossil fuels? At the BloombergNEF Summit London, Jonathan Luan, BNEF’s head of finance & investment research, moderated a panel titled “Weighing the Investment Opportunity: Conventional Versus Clean Energy.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Ulrik Fugmann, Co-CIO, Environmental Strategies Group at BNPP Asset Management; Ralph Ibendahl, Managing Director, Global Head of Energy Transition for RBC Capital Markets; and Bianca Ziccarelli, Managing Director of CPPIB. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/events/type/summit/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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38:58
The Business of Breathing Life Into Old Wind Turbines
The first generation of wind turbines is now approaching retirement. Developers across Europe, the US and China thus find themselves at a crossroads: should they refurbish and extend the life of existing wind fleets, or dismantle them and build new projects from scratch? Wind technology has evolved considerably over the last 20 years, maintenance costs can be steep, and new projects generally boast bigger turbines with far greater capacity. However, the dismantling of older projects incurs significant costs, the regulatory approval process for new projects can be intricate, and the disposal of turbine components often presents an environmental and logistical challenge. On today’s show, Dana Perkins is joined by co-host Kobad Bhavnagri, BloombergNEF’s global head of strategy. Together, they speak to Oliver Metcalfe, BNEF’s head of wind research, about the research note “Wind End of Life 2025: Global Repowering Surges by 2035.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Wind End of Life 2025: Global Repowering Surges by 2035 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37547See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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37:14
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37:14
Deep Freeze Risk Raises Stakes for Europe’s Gas Supply
Winter is coming, and with it a rise in demand for natural gas. With growing liquified natural gas exports from the US now crossing the Atlantic and filling European storage, the continent looks to be well prepared for the coming winter. However, BloombergNEF weather analysts are forecasting that this winter could be a cold one, with the possibility of reduced wind speeds eating into turbine generation, piling even further pressure on natural gas reserves. So just what impact could these unfavorable weather conditions have on gas commodity prices, and with the “third wave of liquefied natural gas” set to flood global markets, could we be facing an upcoming supply glut? On today’s show, Dana Perkins talks with BNEF weather analyst Jess Hicks and gas team senior associate Olympe Mattei-D’Ornano about the note “European Gas Winter Outlook 2025-26: Final Crunch?” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: European Gas Winter Outlook 2025-26: Final Crunch? - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37391 Weather Shifts Stir Europe’s Power Markets - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37673See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The future of energy, transport, sustainability and more, as told by BNEF analysts. Each week, Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees sit down with BloombergNEF (BNEF) analysts to uncover the key findings and stories behind their latest research.
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