Switched On

El Niño has officially arrived, and there are concerns this time that the weather phenomenon might be more intense than most years, a so-called “super” event. With Pacific Ocean temperatures now exceeding the threshold for one of the strongest forms of the weather pattern, the risk of prolonged heat, drought, low wind and other disruptive weather events is rising across multiple regions at once. For commodity and power markets, that can mean greater volatility, from wind droughts in Europe and hydropower stress in the Nordics to shifting hurricane risks in the US. Yet El Niño can also ease pressure in some markets, influencing winter temperatures, rainfall patterns and energy demand in ways that are not always straightforward. So what does a super El Niño mean for commodities, power markets and energy systems, and where are the biggest risks likely to emerge? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by BloombergNEF’s weather analysts, Jess Hicks and Ryan Ward, to discuss some of their team’s notes, including “Weather and Commodities: Summer Outlook 2026 Marks El Niño” and “Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 2026: El Niño Lowers Count.”
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 2026: El Niño Lowers Count - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39663
Weather and Commodities: Summer Outlook 2026 Marks El Niño - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39615
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Heat pumps are at a crossroads. After a decade of growth, global sales fell in 2025 as weaker construction activity weighed on key markets. Yet the longer-term picture remains resilient. Heat pumps have continued to gain ground against fossil fuel heating in several regions, while Europe remains a focal point for adoption, shaped by a shifting mix of subsidies, energy prices and consumer demand. So what is driving heat pump uptake today, and what will determine whether electrified heating can move into the mainstream? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Yara van Ingen, an associate from our building decarbonization team, to discuss her note “Heat Pump Market Outlook 2026: Blip, Not Bust.”
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Heat Pump Market Outlook 2026: Blip, Not Bust - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39389
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gas and oil are on a sharply divergent path. In BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, oil demand peaks before the end of the decade, while gas demand continues to grow as expanding power systems seek reliable sources of generation. At the same time, constraints on everything from gas turbine supply chains to grid infrastructure are emerging as critical bottlenecks. So how does the global energy system evolve from here, and what do these competing pressures reveal about what lies ahead for the energy transition? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Ian Berryman, BloombergNEF’s head of energy systems modeling, to discuss findings from the New Energy Outlook 2026.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
New Energy Outlook 2026 - https://www.bnef.com/flagships/new-energy-outlook
Executive Summary - https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/
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China’s latest export data is offering an early glimpse into how higher fossil fuel prices may be reshaping trade in clean energy technology. Shipments of solar products, batteries and electric vehicles rose sharply in recent months, with some of the strongest growth coming from emerging markets that are heavily exposed to oil and gas imports. The figures arrive as many fuel-importing economies face renewed pressure from elevated energy prices. While it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, the data provides some of the clearest evidence yet that energy security concerns may be feeding through into clean-tech demand. So are rising fossil fuel prices beginning to accelerate the energy transition, and where could the next wave of clean-tech growth emerge? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by Antoine Vagneur-Jones, BNEF’s head of trade and supply chains, to discuss his note “China Clean-Tech Exports Trend Up Amid High Oil Prices” and “Energy Transition Supply Chains Outlook 2026.”
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
China Clean-Tech Exports Trend Up Amid High Oil Prices - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/tfcdnwt9njlu00
Energy Transition Supply Chains Outlook 2026 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39531
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The wind industry is entering a new phase of scale. Offshore installations are set to surge in 2026 as a new generation of massive projects comes online, while onshore markets continue expanding across the globe. But the picture beneath those headline numbers is increasingly nuanced. Offshore developers are still grappling with supply chain bottlenecks, higher financing costs and policy uncertainty, even as governments accelerate deployment in the name of energy security and rising power demand. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers are rapidly expanding internationally, intensifying competition across global turbine markets. So where does the wind industry go next, and how are developers, manufacturers and governments adapting to a more competitive and fragmented market? On today’s show, Dana Perkins is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of wind research, Oliver Metcalfe, to discuss some of his team’s recent research including “Offshore Wind Market Outlook 1H 2026: New Era of Scale” and “Wind Turbine Orders in 2025: Chinese Firms Capture 34%.”
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Offshore Wind Market Outlook 1H 2026: New Era of Scale - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39491
Wind Turbine Orders in 2025: Chinese Firms Capture 34% - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39261
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.