The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He shows the Nasdaq slicing through its 200 day moving average and a trend line stretching back to 2022, and why the S&P losing 7630 and its own four year line matters. Nik argues that credit cycles are mostly apolitical and that this has been building for weeks, points to the OpenAI raise getting cut and Anthropic’s IPO odds falling, and explains what a 55 basis point drop in treasury yields is telling him.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik lays out three money market metrics he watches as a former repo and treasury bill trader, and why they suggest the Fed may be closer to another round of QE than anyone wants to admit. He starts with SOFR creeping back above IORB, a spread now at its widest since tax day, and the month end and year end dates he is watching next. He then covers why more than $7 trillion in T-bills has to be funded by a cash market that cannot grow to meet it, and why bank reserves at 9% of GDP sit near the levels that preceded the 2019 repo crisis. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why prediction markets aren’t the trustless systems people assume, how the oracle problem means someone still has to decide the outcome, and why the assumption that markets always reveal truth breaks down when someone has reason to lose money on purpose. He and Nik also cover why the Genius Act creates structural demand for treasuries, how stablecoins extend dollar access across the global south, and Nik’s own realization while writing his stablecoins as statecraft paper.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance hack, in which $6.3 billion was taken from the exchange’s hot wallet. He explains why a 5% drawdown is far milder than he would have guessed for news of that size, why this is different from the FTX collapse, and how the hacker used DeFi collateral to move stablecoins before issuers could freeze them. Nik then turns to the levels he is watching below $82,700, why gold losing its trend line opens up $3,400, and why a bearish divergence in the Nasdaq suggests more downside. He closes on month end funding and why the calendar matters here.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik covers the Fed’s decision to hold and the reaction that surprised him more than the decision itself: Bloomberg’s anchors in full meltdown over how Kevin Warsh is communicating. He walks through their three complaints, the dissents, Warsh declining to explain why the Fed didn’t hike, and the suggestion that Williams and Jefferson are really setting policy. Nik explains why he thinks the hold was justified given how much conditions tightened after September, and why Warsh believes higher rates will slow the AI buildout. He closes on bitcoin’s four price drivers and why a steepening yield curve could relieve some pressure. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.