The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the twos tens curve is the chart he watches most closely, and why French bond spreads are back at 2011 levels.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the dollar, the Thucydides trap and the US China breakup behind the global system rupture, why credit spreads explain the stock market, and why he is watching for a European central bank print.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be the opening the digital euro needed. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the yield curve, and introduces the new crossover analysis combining TBL liquidity with Johan Bergman's state grid to gauge how much confidence a given signal deserves.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull institutional allocations higher over time, why the Fed began hiking this month into rising yields worldwide, and why he expects a massive money creation event out of Europe before the United States.
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.