The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Investors underestimate the hazards in private debt, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. “There’s a lot of additional credit risk that people are often taking in some of these private situations that you kind of turn a blind eye to,” Christian Stracke, the $2.3 trillion asset manager’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There is a fairly large overhang of problem loans that were made in years earlier this decade that will take years to burn through,” he adds. They also discuss deteriorating debt underwriting standards in the technology sector, Europe’s big defense investment opportunity and the “sell America” trade.
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Pressure on highly-indebted companies will intensify as interest rates remain elevated, according to Seix Investment Advisors. “We have a lot of credit zombies — B3/B minus or CCC rated credits — that still have very weak interest coverage, generating zero free cash flow,” George Goudelias, chief investment officer of the firm’s leveraged finance platform, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There are mine fields to avoid in this market,” he adds. They also discuss the impact of private credit on public leveraged finance, why Seix is bearish on technology and how rising “sell America” sentiment could affect corporate debt.
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Despite all the negative headlines around private credit, Neuberger Berman says direct loans pay a lot more than traded debt and barely make a loss. “We pretty consistently see a 200 basis point differential,” Susan Kasser, the gobal investment management firm’s head of private debt, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Our annualized loss rates are one basis point,” she adds. They also discuss how artificial intelligence helps to pinpoint investment opportunities and why private markets will probably continue to get bad press.
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Venezuela debt holders will likely have to wait years to get their money back after regime change in the oil-rich nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “The near-term challenges are nothing short of massive,” says Damian Sassower, chief emerging-markets credit strategist, in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “I think the rest of this year is spent trying to figure out how to make Venezuela investable,” said Spencer Cutter, who covers US energy producers for BI. They also discuss opportunities and risks for American and Canadian oil companies, the sale of Citgo Petroleum and the “domino effect” on China.
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Credit is one of many overvalued markets and the technology sector is particularly risky, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. “We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,” Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Tech is going to come back down to earth a little bit this year,” said Contopoulos. RBA, which invests across asset classes via exchange-traded funds, has no exposure to corporate credit. They also discuss value in collateralized loan obligations, mortgage-backed securities and Europe.
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