The Dividend Cafe

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today’s resilience with 2023’s 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries.

00:00 Market Backdrop Today

00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math

02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient

04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction

05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries

07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes heightened volatility, a brief 10-year yield move above 5%, and sector performance led by communication services while technology lagged. He says credit spreads remain benign but will be key to watch. He covers August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), elevated PPI (5.4% y/y), tanker shipping up ~300% amid Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, cooling housing markets, the Fed meeting with an 86% implied hike probability, and WTI crude above $100 after a Saudi pipeline shutdown.

00:00 Welcome Back Monday

01:08 Program Cadence Explained

03:24 Market Selloff Recap

04:30 Anthropic AI Warning

07:28 Volatility and Credit Signals

09:05 Policy and AI Regulation

09:45 Inflation CPI and PPI

10:55 Shipping and Housing Cooling

12:04 Fed Meeting Rate Decision

13:18 Oil Surge and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT

On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance.

00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro

02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors

03:26 Markets Before the Attacks

05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen

09:28 Recovery Was Not Different

11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets

15:21 National Unity Then Now

17:41 Personal Life Lessons

20:58 Never Forget Closing

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line.

00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike

01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets

02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math

04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise

05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons

06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk

07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons

10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an emerging market, undermining the Fed and increasing fiscal sensitivity and inflation premiums. He notes T-bills are ~22% of issuance vs a ~15–20% target. He discusses Japan and Europe’s zero/negative-rate policies often producing unintended outcomes (carry trades, deleveraging, higher saving). No major data today; PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:33 Treasury Buyback Buzz

01:57 Yield Curve Control Limits

03:20 Why Borrowing Long Matters

04:13 Fed Mandate And Inflation Risk

05:16 Japan Zero Rate Lessons

06:33 Europe Negative Rate Backfire

07:18 Wrap Up And Data Ahead

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com