The Last Trade: Chris Kuiper, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, returns to make the case that this is the worst sentiment he has seen in his decade-plus following Bitcoin even though nothing fundamental has actually broken, why Bitcoin is finally decoupling from the AI-led "everything-but-Bitcoin" rally, how Fidelity's updated "Getting Off Zero" report uses mean variance optimization to show a 90/0/10 stocks-bonds-Bitcoin allocation maximizing the Sharpe ratio at a conservative 25% Bitcoin CAGR assumption, why bondholders have spent decades underwater on a real-return basis, and why the Czech National Bank's small but symbolic Bitcoin position may be the start of central bank adoption gradually then suddenly.
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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.
🎙️ About This Episode
Chris Kuiper, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, joins Jackson, Brian, and Michael to walk through Fidelity's updated "Getting Off Zero" report and reframe the current Bitcoin drawdown for sophisticated allocators. Chris argues the sentiment is the worst he has seen in his decade-plus in the space, but nothing fundamental has broken; Bitcoin is simply finally decoupling from the AI-momentum rally, which is the diversification benefit allocators actually want. The episode covers Bitcoin spending ~96% of its history below all-time highs (so being underwater is the default state, not a signal), the four-year cycle's diminishing predictive power as derivatives smooth volatility, and the mean variance optimization that pops out a 90% stocks / 0% bonds / 10% Bitcoin portfolio at conservative assumptions (25% CAGR, 50% vol). On the macro side, Chris reiterates his 2026 look-ahead view that inflation comes back in waves, points to bond yields rising globally as the bond market sniffs out higher-for-longer, and revisits the 30-50% real drawdowns bondholders endured from the 1940s through the 1980s. Plus the Czech National Bank's symbolic but precedent-setting Bitcoin allocation, why advisor excuses for zero-allocation have shifted from "it's a Ponzi" to "I don't know how to operationally hold it," and why a zero allocation is now itself an active position requiring justification.
🧠 Chapters
00:00 - Market Sentiment and Current Trends
03:05 - Understanding Bitcoin's Price Action
06:03 - The Role of Education in Investing
09:08 - Long-Term Trends and Market Cycles
11:46 - Evaluating Bitcoin's Role in Portfolios
15:05 - Institutional Perspectives on Bitcoin
18:01 - The Future of Bitcoin in Investment Strategies
34:23 - Understanding Money and Bitcoin's Value
36:11 - The Role of Financial Advisors in Bitcoin Investment
37:29 - Mean Variance Optimization and Bitcoin's Portfolio Role
42:10 - Shifts in Institutional Sentiment Towards Bitcoin
48:28 - Navigating Inflation and Market Uncertainty
58:46 - The Future of Stablecoins and Central Bank Adoption
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