Upside #42 - Worlds Biggest Trade + EU Scale-err-up Strategy + The Jony & Sam Love-in
Trade Wars, Tariffs, and Tech Shifts – The Big Picture Shaping European StartupsWith Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen & Lomax Ward00:00 – Intro: The Need to Talk TariffsDan kicks off the episode with a reminder: No groans, we need to talk tariffs.Taco tariffs, international trade deals, and looming US-EU trade tensions.00:29 – Federal Judges, EU-US Trade, and Startup ImpactsThe EU-US trade deal cajoled activity: what does it mean for investors, startups, and Europe?00:59 – Lomax’s Context: The Behemoth US-EU Trade Relationship$1.5 trillion annual trade; US-EU dwarfs US-China.Why has there never been a formal trade deal? Regulatory misalignments and subsidy wars (Airbus-Boeing).Harmonisation of standards as a critical issue—hardware startups especially at risk.02:12 – Regulatory Divergence and Why It MattersEU’s precautionary principle vs. US’s risk-based model.Trade deals aren't just tariffs—harmonising standards can unlock growth.03:50 – Hardware Startups & the Tariff Threat10% of EU startups are hardware—“they will struggle if tariffs hit 50%.”04:28 – The China & Russia Factor in Trade RebalancingTrump’s chaotic policies, stock markets up despite tariff shocks.06:01 – Inflation, Deficits, and Market VolatilityResidual tariffs could push US inflation by .5-1%.“Congress looking to add $3-4 trillion over 10 years.”The importance of EU sophistication in trade negotiations08:55 – Direct vs. Indirect Impact on StartupsTariffs affect hardware directly; inflation and interest rates indirectly.Interest rates impact M&A, liquidity, DPI, and venture capital flows.11:27 – Markets’ Schism: Bond Traders vs. Equity InvestorsBond traders panic over risk; equity investors bet on AI’s promise.12:09 – Trump’s Amplifier Effect: Deregulation vs. ChaosThe paradox of Trump’s anti-regulation stance fuelling optimism vs. destabilisation.13:42 – EU’s Startup & Scale-Up Strategy: Will It Work?€10B blended fund, blue carpet initiative for talent, regulatory simplification.17:23 – The Slow Pace of EU Policy: 2026-27 TimelinesLomax: “28th regime sounds like a Robert Harris novel—big thanks to Andreas Klinger for pushing it.”19:50 – Employee Stock Options: Europe’s Broken SystemThe need for harmonisation—“It’s key to unlocking talent.”21:49 – Big Tech Announcements: AI’s VelocityGoogle I/O, Microsoft Build, Nvidia’s blowout quarter.AI’s exponential growth—“50x increase in token processing in a year.”27:30 – The Application Layer: Opportunities and DisruptionsAI’s impact on startup building: velocity of product cycles, risk of obsolescence.Dan: “Will SaaS die as AI tools empower in-house builds?”36:54 – OpenAI + Johnny Ive: Hardware, Form Factors, and SpeculationA $6.5B stock deal, secretive hardware project—pendant? Phone? Glasses? A new paradigm?“I hope it’s not a pendant!”39:10 – The Race for the Next Form FactorApple’s stagnation; OpenAI’s ambition to dethrone them.41:10 – Wrap-Up: EU Urgency, Munich’s Tech Momentum, and the Week AheadMunich as a growing hub: TSMC, Apple, Quantum Systems.Lomax: “Bright Flag’s $425M exit is a big deal for the European ecosystem.”
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