The Flip Side

• Will European equities outperform the US in 2025?

  Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their American peers.In episode 68 of The Flip Side, Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy & Global Equity Linked Strategies, and Emmanuel Cau, Head of European Equity Strategy, consider the factors investors should watch, from the macro and geopolitical backdrop on both sides of the pond, to the influence of the Magnificent 7 and currency and rate effects.Clients can read further analysis of these topics under Equity Strategy on Barclays Live.

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• Does inflation still matter?

  Inflation has been a critical focus for investors in recent years. US headline PCE and CPI peaked at 7.2% and 9.1% in mid-2022, but with levels coming down toward the 2% Federal Reserve target rate, is it still worth the attention? Or can investors go back to more or less ignoring inflation, as they did pre-pandemic?In Episode 67 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Mike Pond, Head of Global Inflation-Linked Research, dive into these pressing questions, examining the lingering risks of inflation being stuck at levels just high enough to influence Fed policy, as well as potential shifts in the labour market and tariffs, which could drive inflation risk.

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• Will Trumponomics be incremental or transformational?

  US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his incoming administration will make major policy changes on everything from tariffs to taxes, all the the potential to transform the global economy. Will Trump's policies lead to sweeping economic change or will the effects be incremental? In episode 66 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Head of Research and Global Chairman of Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, dive into these big questions.They examine the potential effects of implementing large-scale immigration reforms and deportations, which would have ripple effects on the labour market, particularly for industries reliant on undocumented workers. Brand and Ajay also explore the promise of deregulation, debating whether reducing regulatory hurdles for businesses can truly accelerate economic growth. Lastly, they tackle looming questions around tariffs and tax cuts, considering their potential to disrupt or stimulate trade and investment.

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• Is China’s economic stimulus a game-changer or window dressing?

  Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving.Chinese financial markets have initially reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock exchange soaring on the news. And with additional measures expected, markets seem poised to benefit from further momentum.In episode 65 of The Flip Side, Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Head of Asia Cross-Asset Strategy Kaan Singh discuss the stimulus policies and consider whether they are large enough to reinvigorate China’s economy or simply ‘window dressing’ tactics.

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• Does market volatility risk a US hard landing?

  Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession.Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major catalysts for the volatility. The unease in markets was exacerbated by the unwind of the yen carry trade and swirling questions about the Magnificent 7 tech companies’ pace of AI adoption.In episode 64 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha discuss recent financial market dynamics and debate the re-emergence of a hard landing for the US economy.

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